馬杜羅的當選與委中“雙贏”-羅思義

委內瑞拉新任總統馬杜羅

委內瑞拉新任總統馬杜羅，深知自己在追隨現代拉丁美洲歷史巨人的腳步。在現代拉丁美洲，上一任總統烏戈•查韋斯的聲望，只有菲德爾·卡斯特羅和切·格瓦拉可以匹敵。我曾多次與馬杜羅討論經濟政策，現在他必須用不同於查韋斯的風格處理委內瑞拉麪臨的問題，自然也不會獲得像查韋斯那樣多的民眾支持。這一點反映在了此次總統選舉中，馬杜羅獲得了50.6%的支持率，而查韋斯在2012年獲得了55.1%的支持率，參與投票的總人數也降到80%以下。但這並不一定意味着他無法成功領導委內瑞拉向前發展。

中國應該熟悉這一點。沒有任何一位繼任領導人能達到毛澤東或者鄧小平的高度，但這不會阻止繼任者在實現民族復興的道路上向前邁步。馬杜羅當選總統後，委內瑞拉將有怎樣的延續和改變呢？

此前，馬杜羅曾常年擔任委內瑞拉外交部長，並且被詬不管在面對友好政府還是敵對政府時，都表現得一貫柔弱。但他的政治起源結合了紀律和與民眾有關的組織。馬杜羅曾當過公交司機並組織了運輸工會，並因此名聲鶴起。但在那之前的1986年，他在古巴學習了一年。專注和組織能力，結合戰術靈活性，這些在馬杜羅職業生涯中展現的特質，與古巴的政治很一致。

馬杜羅被稱為中國的崇拜者。在成為代總統後，中國代表團成為他首批會見的代表團之一。因此，他很清楚中國與委內瑞拉的關係具有雙贏的潛力。

“委內瑞拉特色”有力地標誌着委內瑞拉的社會主義，就像中國有“中國特色”，這不僅影響風格，也影響實質。在風格方面，拉丁美洲的總統選舉活動與政治風格迥異的中國或歐洲都不一樣，但是關鍵的政策選擇可以被普遍理解。

委內瑞拉與沙特阿拉伯是世界最大的石油儲備國。在很長一段時間裏，石油將是委內瑞拉經濟的核心。委內瑞拉的民族復興，也是查韋斯享有聲望的原因，是第一次由石油帶來的財富被用來造福本國人民，而不是被送到外國銀行。查韋斯推出的社會進步項目——健康保健，減少貧困，住房建設——支撐着他的聲望。

如果西蒙·玻利瓦爾因保住了委內瑞拉的政治獨立而成為該國第一位偉大的民族英雄，那麼查韋斯則因保住了經濟獨立而成為第二位歷史英雄。愛國主義和社會進步的結合是查韋斯的魅力，也是馬杜羅延續的傳統。

石油是委內瑞拉財富的基礎，不僅能創造效益，也會帶來一些發展中國家面臨的常規問題和特定問題。石油產業需要巨大的投資，但僱用相對較少的人力——這帶來能否創造足夠就業機會的問題。石油財富導致高匯率，給委內瑞拉其他產業的國際化競爭帶來困難。

與巴西這樣的拉丁美洲國家相比，石油也解釋了為什麼委內瑞拉具有特徵鮮明的政治鬥爭。因為委內瑞拉有一種壓倒性的主導資源——石油，要麼受愛國力量控制，要麼受買辦勢力控制，不像巴西這種相對複雜的國家有妥協的餘地。每個拉丁美洲國家都是獨特的。

作為一箇中等收入的發展中國家，委內瑞拉要通過石油收入，最大可能進口滿足人民需要的商品，同時也要在本國建立生產。中國是理想的合作伙伴。中國的中等技術製成品出口適合委內瑞拉的市場，並且中國的大型企業有資源投資委內瑞拉的國內生產。同時，委內瑞拉也可以讓中國的石油進口來源更加多元化，減少中國對任何一個石油供應國的依賴。這是雙贏的基礎。

馬杜羅意識到了這一點。作為外交部長，他曾親自處理與中國的關係。但他也關心國際關係與經濟政策的相關性。在國際金融危機末期伊始，查韋斯統管經濟和外交部，幫助分析這種關係及委內瑞拉的應對措施。他們的政策為查韋斯總統的連任和馬杜羅總統選舉的勝利奠定了基礎。

馬杜羅的成功當選是委內瑞拉的選擇，但也意味着中國的一位朋友還留在委內瑞拉總統府。

（英文版載於Global Times，作者授權觀察者網獨家翻譯併發布）

    Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s newly elected president, is aware of walking in the footsteps of a giant of modern Latin American history. The prestige of Hugo Chavez, his predecessor, was matched in that continent in the present era only by Fidel Castro and Che Guevara. Maduro, who I discussed economic policy with several times, therefore must deal with issues facing Venezuela with a different style to his predecessor and naturally does not carry the personal support of his predecessor. This is reflected in his receiving 50.6% of the vote in the presidential election compared to 55.1% for his predecessor in 2012, with turnout falling from above 80% to somewhat below it. But this does not necessarily mean less success in developing the country.  

China should be familiar with this. No subsequent Chinese leader could enjoy the personal position of Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping in creating the People’s Republic of China, but this did not prevent their successors from achieving further major steps in the national revival of China. What continuities and changes in Venezuela may be expected with Maduro as president?

Maduro was a long serving Venezuelan foreign minister charged with delicate discussions with both friendly and hostile governments. But his political origins combine discipline and organization with links with the population. Maduro is famous for being a bus driver and organizing a transport union but before that, in 1986, he studied in Cuba for a year. Focus and organization, combined with tactical flexibility, attributes shown in Maduro’s career, are in accord with Cuba’s politics. Maduro is known as an admirer of China. One of the first delegations he met after becoming acting president was China’s. He therefore understands that relations between Venezuela and China have the potential of a ‘win-win’.

‘Venezuelan characteristics’ strongly mark socialism in that country just as much as China’s have ‘Chinese characteristics’. This affects style and substance. In style the Latin American character of the presidential election campaign was different to the politically diverse styles of either China or Europe. But the key policy choices can be generally understood.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are the countries with the world’s largest oil reserves. Oil will be the core of Venezuela’s economy for a prolonged period. National revival in Venezuela, the reason for Chavez’s prestige, was that for the first time the wealth generated by that oil was used for the benefit of the country’s population rather than being lodged in foreign banks. The programs of social improvement Chavez launched – health, poverty reduction, housing construction - underpinned his popularity.

If Simon Bolivar was Venezuela’s first great national hero for securing the country’s political independence, Chavez was Venezuela’s second historical hero for securing the country’s economic independence. This combination of patriotism and social improvement were Chavez’s appeal and the tradition Maduro continues.

Oil, which is the foundation of Venezuela’s wealth, creates not only benefits but also specific problems in addition to the normal ones facing a developing economy. The oil industry requires enormous investment but employs relatively few people – creating a problem of creating enough jobs. Oil wealth leads to a high exchange rate, creating difficulties for other Venezuelan industries to compete internationally.

Oil is also the reason for the sharp character of the political struggle in Venezuela compared to a Latin American country such as Brazil. Because Venezuela has one overwhelmingly dominant resource, oil, either patriotic forces or comprador forces control it. There no room for compromise in the way that there is in a more complex economy such as Brazil. Each Latin American country is specific.

Venezuela, as a medium income developing economy, needs simultaneously to secure the best possible imports for its population, bought with oil income, but also to build up production within its own country. China is an ideal partner. China’s medium technology manufactured exports fit Venezuela’s market, while China’s large companies have resources to invest in production in Venezuela itself. But simultaneously Venezuela helps China diversify its sources of oil imports, making it less dependent on any one supplier. This is the basis of the ‘win-win’.

Maduro is aware of this. As foreign minister he dealt personally with relations with China. But he was also concerned with the interrelation of international relations and economic policy. At the beginning of the latest phase of the international financial crisis President Chavez jointly charged the economics and foreign ministry with helping analyze this and how Venezuela should respond. Their policies helped lay foundations of President Chavez’s re-election and Maduro’s electoral victory.

Maduro’s electoral victory is his country’s choice, but it means a friend of China remains in Venezuela’s presidential palace.

(This is an expanded version of an article which originally appeared in English in Global Times. )