羅思義：保護中國環境需要更多投資

9月，中國宣佈了目前為止最徹底、最全面的空氣污染治理政策。當務之急，中國政府不僅要出台政策措施，而且要確保政策得到切實執行。不過，除了需要制定法律方面的措施，污染治理還會給中國的整體經濟政策帶來直接影響：治理空氣污染和其他環保問題都需要進一步提高而非降低投資佔中國經濟的比重。

為確保治污政策得到切實執行，一個由國家環境監測中心直接監管的國家級空氣質量監測網站將建立。監控網點將遍佈每一個縣級市。每個市將會設立三個監控網點：兩個監控省會城市，一個監控其他單個城市。中共中央組織部首次被分派直接參與落實環境行動計劃。

該計劃的首要目標是在未來5年內實現空氣質量的明顯改善。到2017年，10微米以下的可吸入顆粒物（PM10）濃度必須至少比2012年下降10%。關鍵地區則制定了更嚴格的目標：京津冀地區2017年的PM2.5濃度——指大氣中直徑小於或等於2.5微米的可入肺顆粒物——必須要比2012 年下降25%，長三角區域的目標是下降20%。為實現這一目標，到時會採取包括關閉北京地區所有燃煤發電站在內的措施。

中國為何突然加大力度優先處理空氣污染？原因眾所周知！今年早些時候，中國的煙霧和污染問題，特別是發生在北京及鄰近的河北地區的霧霾天氣，引發廣泛關注。遺憾的是，短視是人類的通病，儘管專家事先已經發出了“空氣污染將帶來嚴重威脅”的警告，卻沒能全面推動該議題走上政策議程。英國曾有過和中國類似的經歷，1952年發生的倫敦大霧曾導致12,000 人死亡，這一全國性災難推動英國政府通過了一系列強有力的措施，如《英國清潔空氣法案》等。

中國新出台的環保政策已受到國際環保組織的歡迎。綠色和平組織中國氣候與能源項目主任表示：“中國政府計劃在五年內實現空氣質量明顯改善，這一時間表充分反映了中國政府在治理空氣污染方面的高度決心。”

這一環保政策更是得到越來越多國際方面的支持。國際能源署（IEA）首席經濟學家費斯·比羅爾（Faith Birol）最近表示：“中國政府為促進能源效率做出了巨大的努力，尤其是在水電和風等可再生能源方面投入了絕大部分精力。”英國倫敦大學國王學院國際關係學教授阿納託·列文（Anatol Lieven）指出：“中國人有可能來一場綠色飛躍，因為他們明白這關乎到中國經濟的未來。”

空氣污染不僅僅會降低生活質量，而且對健康也是一大威脅。中國雖然還沒有像英國那樣，突遭一場12,000 人死亡的毀滅性災難，但根據綠色和平組織等多家環保機構的報告顯示，北京、天津和河北地區的燃煤發電廠導致了空氣污染，並且已經給這些地區人民帶來嚴重的健康問題，包括死亡。北京的主要問題也是由汽車尾氣污染造成的。

鑑於問題的嚴重性及其產生的根源，中國政府採取了諸如限制公務用車的小措施，但這不足以徹底解決問題，必須要在電力供應和運輸系統等決定性經濟領域做出根本性改變。

因此，除了這些新措施外，中國政府必須制定長遠的政策來成功解決空氣污染問題。中國環境科學研究院副院長柴發合強調，目前還沒有立竿見影的現成辦法：“西方國家花了數十年來改善空氣質量，而且仍在嘗試。中國現在該做的是儘快改善空氣質量，但我們也要清醒地認識到所面臨的艱辛，而且要準備打一場對抗污染的持久戰。這是一場和每個公共成員都有關的戰爭。”

多久可以成功實現污染治理？英國的統計數據和實際經驗可供中國借鑑。巧合的是，中國目前的人均GDP大致相當於英國20世紀50年代初遭遇大煙霧慘劇時的水平，但是中國的經濟增速比英國當時的經濟增速要快得多，因此中國將比英國花少得多的時間來達到英國現在的經濟發展水平。英國花了十年才消除了災難性的煙霧，儘管1962年倫敦的空氣質量仍然不佳，但沒有再發生導致重大人員死亡的事件。倫敦用了20年的時間才使空氣質量有了明顯的改善，根除了泰晤士河污染，徹底改善了污染狀況。其他歐洲國家，特別是德國，比英國的環保工作做得更成功。

這些國家的經驗表明，環保能取得進展的關鍵在於：法律措施與經濟方案相配套——僅有法律措施，不伴以經濟轉變是遠遠不夠的。同時也證明，中國經濟發展過程中出現的“消費而非投資才能帶動增長”的觀念是錯誤的。環境保護需要非常高的投資，因為無污染的運輸系統、發電機設備和建築比污染性的同類產品要昂貴得多。正如中國能源研究會副理事長周大地所説：“改善環境基本上是一種建築形式，這肯定需要社會投資。”因此，環保不能如中國某些人建議的要削減投資，相反需要非常高水平的投資。

幸運的是，在一些關鍵技術上，中國取得了領先地位。例如，遷移運動（Transition Movement，一個國際環保運動組織）指出：“中國生產了世界上80%的太陽能電池板……其安裝可再生能源裝置的速度也遠快於其他國家，去年生產的太陽能和風能產品更是多於任何國家。”該組織還表示：“相反，華盛頓似乎因受制於礦物燃料公司的掣肘，還停留在過去止步不前。”

可見，中國推出的新環保政策對本國而言非常重要。但是，這不過是21世紀最重要經濟體譜寫自己神話時，面臨諸多挑戰的第一篇章——中國如何成為高生活水準的發達經濟體，同時為13億中國人創造一個可持續發展的環境。同時，一個重要的經濟結論是：不管是控制空氣污染，還是處理其他環境問題，都需要進一步提高而非降低投資佔經濟的比重。

【翻頁查看英文原文】

 

 

   

 

Protecting China’s environment will require more investment not less

In September China announced its most sweeping and comprehensive policies so far to deal with air pollution. The priority given to the issue was shown not only by the policy measures but the teeth given to implement them. But in addition to legal aspects measures to control air pollution have a direct economic consequence for overall economic policy. They show that dealing with the problem of air pollution, and other questions of environmental protection, will require a higher level of investment in China’s economy not a lower one.

To implement the policies to deal with air pollution national-level air quality monitoring sites will be run directly by the National Environmental Monitoring Center. Sites will be set up in every county-level city. There will be three sites in each municipality, two in each provincial capital and one in each of the other cities. The Communist Party’s Organization Department was allocated direct participation in implementing an environmental action plan for the first time.

The plan’s central policy objective is to achieve marked improvement in air quality over the next five years. Concentration levels of breathable suspended particles with a diameter of 10 microns or less, must fall by at least 10 percent by 2017 from the levels in 2012. Tougher objectives have been set in key regions. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area concentration levels of PM2.5 particles — those smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, which pass deep into the lungs — must be cut by 25 percent by 2017 from 2012 levels. The target for the Yangtze River Delta region is a reduction of 20 percent. Measures to achieve this include, for example, closing every coal fired power station in the Beijing region.

There is no secret regarding the reason for this sharp increase in priority in dealing with air pollution. The smog and pollution problem in China earlier this year, particularly in Beijing and the neighboring Hebei region, attracted widespread attention. Regrettably, and as a sort of testimony to humanity’s common international short sightedness, prior warnings by experts of the serious danger from air pollution were insufficient to push the issue radically up the policy agenda. Britain had a similar experience to China as it took the national catastrophe of the 1952 Great London Smog, in which 12,000 people died, to propel through a series of strong measures such as the UK’s Clean Air Act.

The character of China’s new policies has been welcomed by international environmental protection organisations. Greenpeace’s director of climate and energy projects in China stated: “The Chinese government proposals to achieve significant improvement of air quality within a five year schedule fully reflects its determination in controlling air pollution”.

This was the latest step in growing international awareness of and support for environmental policies China as commenced. Faith Birol, the International Energy Agency’s Chief Economist, recently noted: ‘The Chinese government has made huge efforts in energy efficiency, and a major effort in renewable energy such as hydroelectricity and wind.’ Anatol Lieven, professor of international relations at Kings College London noted: ‘The Chinese are just as likely to make a Green Leap Forward because they understand it’s the economic future.’

Air pollution not merely degrades quality of life but is a major health threat. China has not suffered a sudden single devastating catastrophe, such as London’s 12,000 deaths in 1952, but reports, including by environmental group Greenpeace, estimate that pollution from the coal-fired power plants within the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region causes significant health problems including deaths. In Beijing a serious problem is also caused by pollution from cars.

Given the seriousness of the problem, and its sources, small measures, for example limiting use of official cars, are valuable as indicating policy concern but are inadequate themselves to deal with the situation. For success there must be fundamental changes in decisive economic areas such as power supply and transport.

Therefore, in addition to the new measures, it is encouraging the authorities have indicated China must pursued the necessary policies for a prolonged period to successfully resolve air pollution issues. Chai Fahe, vice-president of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, stressed that there can be no quick victory: “Western countries have spent decades trying to improve their air quality, and are still trying. What China is doing here is trying its best to make improvements happen as soon as possible, but we also need to be realistic about the hardships ahead and prepare for a protracted war against pollution. It’s a war that will involve every single member of the public."

The timescale in which success can be achieved can be indicated not only by statistics but from practical experience. Not accidentally China’s current GDP per capita is approximately equal to the UK’s in the early 1950s when it suffered the Great Smog – although China’s economy is growing much more rapidly than the UK at that time and therefore will take a much shorter period to achieve current UK levels of economic development. In a decade the UK was able to eliminate its disastrous smogs – by 1962 the London smog of that year was unpleasant but resulted in no significant number of deaths. Over a 20 year period further significant advances in air quality, elimination of pollution from the river Thames etc. radically improved the situation. Other European countries, notably Germany, have had even greater environmental successes than the UK.

The key lesson from countries which have made major steps forward in environmental protection is that legal steps must be linked with economic solutions – purely legal changes, not accompanied by economic shifts will be inadequate. The necessity of achieving much enhanced environmental protection also shows the error in some confused ideas on China’s economic development. Environmental protections requires very high investment as non-polluting transportation, power generation, and construction is more expensive than polluting ones. As Zhou Dadi, vice-chairman of the China Energy Research Society, rightly pointed out: “Improving the environment is basically a form of construction, and one that definitely requires investment from society,” Environmental protection therefore cannot be carried out by cutting the level of investment in China as some propose, on the contrary it will require very high levels of investment.

Fortunately China has already achieved a leading position in some of the key technologies which are required. For example the Transition movement, an international environmental activity movement, noted: ‘China makes 80 percent of the world’s solar panels… it is also installing renewables at a faster rate than any country, and last year produced more solar and wind power than anyone else.’ It stated: ‘By contrast Washington seems to be stuck in the past, in thrall to fossil fuel companies.’

The radical new measures China has announced are therefore important in themselves. But they are only a first chapter in one of the most important economies stories and challenges of the 21st century – how China can build an advanced economy with not only high living standards but sustainable environmental protection in a country of 1.3 billion people. A crucial economic conclusion is that controlling air pollution, and dealing with other environmental issues, will require a higher percentage of investment in the economy not a lower one.

（英文版發表於China.org.cn http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-09/28/content_30153866.htm ，觀察者網獨家翻譯全文。）