《時代》週刊：中國上了美國國債的牀卻下不來 應怪自己

美國《時代》週刊網站15日再次把關注點對準了新華社的“去美國化”文章。一篇題為《中國上了美國財政部的牀卻下不來》文章稱，中國儘可以呼喚“去美國化”，但自己並沒有作好取代美國的準備。文章稱，中國手握鉅額美債是由自己的開放和投資政策造成的；受困於華盛頓僵局，中國人應該怪自己。

國外政治漫畫：中國被美國的債務危機綁架

以下為《時代》文章節譯：

中國這些天對於華盛頓的僵局一定憂心忡忡。手持1.3萬億美元美國國庫券的中國，是美國國債的最大外國持有者。如果美國國會不能在17日之前提高政府借款上限，那麼，華盛頓可能沒有足夠的資金償付債券，這或許會導致違約行為。這將導致國庫券貶值，中國的財富將大大縮水。

這一可能性已經引起了中國的驚慌。中國官方媒體新華社的一篇評論文章抨擊了美國在國際事務上的不負責任，呼籲在IMF等國際機構中增加發展中國家的話語權，並以一種新的儲備貨幣取代美元。該文章還提出要建立一個“去美國化”的世界。

在中國的公共輿論中，美國的僵局也造成了困惑和憤怒。一些中國人質問，我們的領導人是否在一個運轉不良的政府身上投資太多了。“買了這麼多（美債），你就處在別人的掌控之中了。我們應該找出是誰做了這一決定，然後讓他負責。”這是新浪微博上的一種典型言論。

中國人應該怪自己。在中國經濟改革之初，政府採取的促進增長與出口的政策，同時也使中國對美國財政部發行的國債產生依賴。這些政策製造了巨大的經常賬户盈餘和龐大的外匯儲備，這讓北京除了對美國投資之外，別無選擇。

中囯的政策總體上是鼓勵出口，限制進口，並通過控制其貨幣價值以促進出口。與此同時，政府在利率管理上鼓勵投資，不提倡儲蓄，抑制國內消費。

中國在這些年裏積累的經常賬户盈餘，導致了龐大的外匯儲備——最新統計數字是3.66萬億美元。

在很多人看來，這顯示了中國的經濟實力，但同時，它也是一個金融負擔。中國決策者在管理這些巨大的儲備時，沒有太多選擇，他們只能購買美國國債。美國政府債券市場是一個深化、流動和可靠的市場，是存放所有這些美元的最佳(可能也是唯一的)選擇。然而，該政策有其侷限性。拋售美元會導致其貶值，從而侵蝕中國的財富。中國要擺脱這種投資國債的習慣，唯一的辦法是全面改革其經濟體系。

不過，中國正在緩慢地向這個方向努力。中國為減少美元依賴而採取的戰略之一是，推動人民幣在國際貿易和金融業務中成為美元以外的選擇。該國政府已經取得了一些成績。

歐洲央行和中國央行最近簽署了一份高額的本幣互換協議。另據國際清算銀行最近的一項調査，人民幣已經首次成為十大交易貨幣之一。然而，要使人民幣真正成為美元的對手，中囯還必須進行更多改革。

這一切意味着，中國和美國財政部仍然擁抱在一起，而北京很難從這種關係中抽身。中國需要的是全方位經濟改革，而北京至今仍不願這樣做。因此，北京可以一廂情願地呼籲打造“去美國化”的世界，但中國並未作好取代美國的準備。

作者 邁克爾·舒曼

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  China Got Into Bed With the U.S. Treasury and Can’t Get Out

The Chinese sure are doing a lot of worrying these days about the stalemate in Washington. Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that he was watching the tussle over raising the government’s debt ceiling with “great attention” in a meeting last week. He has good reason to be concerned. With a stash of nearly $1.3 trillion in Treasury securities, China is the world’s largest foreign owner of U.S. government debt. If U.S. Congress fails to lift the ceiling to allow the government to borrow more by Thursday, Washington may not have enough money to pay its bills, potentially leading to a default. That could sink the value of Treasuries — wiping out a big chunk of Chinese wealth in the process.

That possibility has caused much consternation in China. In a blistering (and highly hypocritical) editorial, state news agency Xinhua blasted what it sees as Washington’s irresponsibility in handling global affairs and called for greater say for developing nations in international institutions like the IMF and a new reserve currency to replace the dollar.

“As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world,” the commentary recommended. “Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place.”

Among the Chinese public, the stalemate in Washington has caused confusion and ire. Why, some Chinese are asking, have our leaders invested so much of the country’s money in a government that seems so dysfunctional? “Bought so much [American debt], now you are under the control of others,” went one typical comment posted on microblogging site Sina Weibo. “We should find out who made this decision and let him take the responsibility.”

The Chinese can blame themselves. Since the earliest days of Chinese economic reform, policies that the government has employed to create growth and exports have also made it dependent on debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. Those policies have generated huge current-account surpluses and gargantuan reserves of foreign currency that have left Beijing no other option but to invest in the U.S.

Chinese policy has generally pushed exports while discouraging imports. By controlling the value of its currency, the renminbi (RMB), to promote exports, China hasn’t allowed its exchange rate to adjust to shifts in trade in a way that would bring balance. Economist Huang Yiping once proffered that policies that reduce prices of land, energy and other costs of production also subsidize exports, and thus contribute to surpluses. Meanwhile, the government’s regulation of interest rates has favored investment and punished savers, suppressing domestic consumption.

The current-account surpluses China has notched over the years have resulted in a vault full of foreign-currency reserves — a staggering $3.66 trillion at last count. Though China’s surpluses have been declining (relative to GDP), the country is still adding to this mountain of foreign currency. In the third quarter, China’s foreign-exchange reserves jumped by the largest amount in more than two years.

To many, this ocean of foreign currency shows China’s economic strength, but at the same time, it is also a financial burden. Chinese policymakers simply don’t have many options when managing these giant reserves, and that has forced them to gorge on Treasuries. The U.S.-government-bond market is deep, liquid and reliable — the perfect (and, arguably, only) place to park all those greenbacks. Sure, the Chinese can switch some of their dollars into other currencies, but there is a limit to that strategy. Dumping the dollar would depress its value, eroding China’s own holdings. The only way for China to wean itself off its Treasury habit is to change its entire economic system.

That, though, is happening slowly. One strategy China is pursuing to lessen its dollar dependence is by promoting its own currency as an alternative to the greenback in global trade and finance. The government has had some success. The European Central Bank and China’s central bank recently agreed to a large swap of their currencies. And according to a recent survey from the Bank for International Settlements, the RMB entered the list of top 10 most traded currencies for the first time. Yet in order for the RMB to become a true rival to the dollar, China has to undertake far more reform.

The RMB isn’t fully convertible, nor does it trade freely around the world like the dollar, euro or yen. China is taking stabs at the sort of financial liberalization that would give the RMB an international boost — experimenting with freer capital flows in a new zone in Shanghai, for instance — but those steps are tentative at best. The Chinese government is still reluctant to throw open its financial sector and loosen capital flows and currency trading in a way that would turn the RMB into a solid reserve currency like the dollar.

“China’s policymakers remain deeply uncomfortable with allowing market forces a say in determining the exchange rate at times of uncertainty,” research firm Capital Economics said in a report on Monday. “Policymakers still see opening of capital controls as an important goal. But their actions underline that it remains a long way off.”

What this all means is that China and the U.S. Treasury remain locked in an embrace from which it is very hard for Beijing to escape. What it will take is extensive reform to China’s own economy that so far Beijing has been reluctant to undertake. So Beijing can call for a “de-Americanized world” all it wants. China is not ready to take America’s place.