羅思義：英政府終於回到正確的對華軌道上

英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本（George Osborne）上週訪問北京期間與中國達成大量經濟協議。但這些協議最終能夠達成對英國來説殊為不易，因為英國為此付出了慘痛的政治和經濟教訓。

經濟領域方面，英國金融機構獲得了800億元人民幣（摺合130億美元）的人民幣合格境外機構投資者額度，可用於投資中國內地的股票、債券和貨幣市場。重要的一步是，中資銀行被允許在倫敦開設分行從事批發銀行業務，而不再只是以子公司模式運營。這意味着中資銀行將能更大程度上獲得來自中國總部的財政支持，滿足其資本和準備金需求——倫敦早前嚴格的監管制度導致中資銀行將他們的歐洲總部從倫敦轉移至盧森堡。

協議內容包括將開啓人民幣和英鎊的直接貨幣交易，雖然確切的時間表還沒有宣佈。這是繼英國和中國6月達成規模為2000億元人民幣（摺合326億美元）的中英貨幣互換協議後的又一重大進展。英國宣佈將加快為中國企業和遊客辦理赴英簽證。

至於非金融領域，繼早前開發商總部基地（中國）控股集團（ABP）公司在倫敦東部港口區簽署一項高達10億美元的投資協議後，中國還宣佈將投資靠近曼徹斯特機場的英國房地產項目，該項目總額達12.8億美元。

中國也將參與英國的核電項目建設——雖然中國不一定會因此獲利，因為這些項目本身在英國就非常具有爭議性。

這些協議最終能達成部分應歸功於英國政治家同心協力展開的魅力攻勢。倫敦市市長鮑里斯·約翰遜（Boris Johnson）和財政大臣奧斯本剛聯袂訪問了北京，首相卡梅倫（Cameron）則將在秋天訪問中國。

英國此次的做法顯然與其三年前的政策大相徑庭。當時剛當選首相的卡梅倫不顧中國的警告，挑釁性地會晤了達賴喇嘛。中國財政部副部長朱光耀為此表示：“坦白來講，中英關係受到損害是因為卡梅倫首相與達賴會面造成的。”約翰遜則關閉了前倫敦市長肯·利文斯通（Ken Livingstone）在任時設立的倫敦駐北京和上海辦事處。

除簽署了一些對中國有利的經濟協議外，英國此次的政治作派變化極大。**奧斯本一再強調説，卡梅倫沒有會見達賴的計劃。**曾在報紙專欄撰文猛批英國的中國普通話教育，並宣稱“中國文化影響近乎零，亦不會增加……”、素來多話的約翰遜在接受一家英國電視台採訪時五次拒絕回答他會否會見達賴喇嘛的問題，而只是謹慎地稱“他只是一個小小的市長”。

總之，現實世界給英國政治家們上了苦澀的一課。他們曾傲慢地認為，即使他們侮辱中國，也不會有任何後果。相反地，面對中國的經濟崛起，他們不得不徹底調整他們的態度。歐洲國家應該記住這樣的教訓：如果有哪個國家損害了中國的核心利益，例如支持達賴喇嘛的分裂活動，那它將會遭受不能承受之痛。

當然，中國政府不會像我這麼直白地指出損害中國國家利益的國家應該受到什麼樣的教訓，但其他評論員可以不遵守外交禮儀要求道出事實。英國領導人已經發現，如果他們要追求自己國家的利益，他們就必須尊重中國的核心關切。新當選的澳大利亞保守派總理託尼•阿博特（Tony Abbott）則與英國領導人做法形成鮮明的對照，他在當選的第一天就向中國示好，希望與中國保持良好的關係。

英國的經驗是歐洲過去五年來大趨勢的縮影。一些歐洲國家，特別是與中國保持着良好關係的德國，其經濟往往大受裨益。但和英國保守派一樣立場的其他歐洲國家對華政策幾乎都經歷了一個前倨後恭的過程。

五年前，臨近2008北京奧運會開幕之際，法國總統薩科齊（Sarkozy ）曾威脅不出席開幕式。但中國國家主席胡錦濤2010年11月訪問法國時，薩科齊總統打破慣例親自前往機場以最高禮遇迎接了他。

2008年初，愛爾蘭的《愛爾蘭時報》就大多數愛爾蘭政黨重要人物發起的抵制北京奧運會活動所做的民意調查顯示，支持抵制的愛爾蘭人佔43%，贊成參加北京奧運會的人數則佔57%。大不相同的是，2012年時任中國國家副主席的習近平訪問愛爾蘭之際，每個主要政黨和報紙都稱支持加強與中國的聯繫。

**自2008年受到歐洲經濟危機的負面影響以來，中國對歐洲的投資，尤其是基礎設施投資，已超越了對歐洲的債券購買交易。**中國最近與英國達成的協議是繼中國長江三峽集團公司購買了葡萄牙電力公司21%的股份、中國主權財富基金中國投資公司（CIC）購買了英國泰晤士水務公司9%的股份之後的新投資。

英國媒體一直在熱論與中國的關係。例如，英國《每日電訊報》就習近平任中國國家主席之前訪美時的標題為“中國未來的領導人習近平既受到了熱情款待……也受到了警告”；相反，英國《衞報》最近發表了一篇題為“中國經濟：令人頭痛的爭論”的社論：“任何人評價中國經濟前景前都必須首先承認，中華帝國取得了當今世界最驚人的經濟發展成就。”即便如小報英國《每日鏡報》，也發表了一篇強調英國與中國貿易關係積極作用的文章。

中英這次不僅達成了一些對中國有利的具有實質性進展的經濟協議，而且英國重要政治家訪問中國的政治基調也有所改變（不再稱讚達賴等等）。這顯示英國政治家希望果斷解決爭議，與中國保持良好的關係。這樣的結果對雙方都有利。在保守黨領導的政府挑釁性地會見達賴後，中國政府對英國採取了強硬的態度。這清楚地表明，中國會把其他考慮置於次要地位以捍衞其國家核心利益。儘管如此，中國顯然更傾向於與英國保持更好的關係以有所獲利。除英國經濟投資外，倫敦還是歐洲金融中心和世界最重要的外匯交易中心——這對中國相當重要，因為中國正在推動人民幣國際化的進程。

英國政府早前對華政策徒勞無益，純粹是浪費了時間。現在看到奧斯本訪華達成的成果我很高興，因為這顯示中英關係迴歸理性路徑。英國政府大幅調整其政策的做法顯示，其早前的政策讓其遭受的損失遠甚於中國。但現在英國政府懸崖勒馬改弦易張對中英雙方來説是一個“雙贏”的結局，每個與此相關的人都會因此受益。

英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本和倫敦市長約翰遜訪華，在北京街頭。

（作者羅思義為原倫敦副市長，感謝作者授權觀察者網獨家首發中文稿，英文原版發表於China.org.cn，翻頁查看。）

英文版：

The new reality of China-UK relations

Britain’s finance minister George Osborne last week concluded substantive economic agreements with China during his visit to Beijing. But there are important political lessons as well as economic ones to be drawn from these agreements.

On the field of the economy there will be a Rmb80bn ($13bn) quota for UK-based financial institutions to invest in Chinese securities. In an important step China’s banks are to be allowed to set up branches, not just subsidiary companies, in London for wholesale banking operations. This means China’s banks will be able to tap their huge parent banks’ financial standing to meet capitalization and reserve requirements - earlier restrictions on this had led to Chinese banks basing their European operations in Luxembourg rather than London.

There will be direct RMB-sterling currency trading, although a precise timetable was not yet announced. This followed June’s Rmb 200bn ($32.6bn) currency swap agreement between the UK and China. The UK announced expedited arrangements for Chinese businesses and tourists to secure UK visas.

In the non-financial field a $1.28 billion Chinese investment into British property projects near Manchester airport was announced, following an earlier agreement on an investment of up to $1 billion by Chinese company ABP in the East London docklands areas.

There was also agreement China would participate in nuclear power projects in the UK – although this will not be so beneficial as these projects themselves are extremely controversial in the UK.

These announcements formed part of a concerted charm offensive by UK politicians. The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, visited Beijing at the same time as Osborne. Prime Minister Cameron will visit China in the autumn.

This UK approach clearly constituted a sharp reversal of the UK’s policy in the previous three years. After being elected Prime Minister Cameron held a provocative meeting with the Dalai Lama despite warnings from China about the latter’s political activities. China’s deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangya stated: “Frankly speaking, Sino-British relations were damaged because Prime Minister Cameron met with [the] Dalai,” Johnson closed London offices in Beijing and Shanghai opened by the previous Mayor, Ken Livingstone.

In addition to the economic agreements the UK political approach this time changed sharply. Osborne stressed Cameron had no plans to meet the Dalai Lama. The normally loquacious Johnson, who had previously written newspaper columns criticizing stress on teaching Mandarin in the UK, and claiming ‘Chinese cultural influence is virtually nil, and unlikely to increase’, refused to answer five times in a single UK TV interview whether he would meet the Dalai Lama – saying he was only a Mayor.

In short the UK politicians had been taught a sharp lesson in world realities. They had arrogantly believed they could come to power, insult China, and there would be no consequences. Instead, faced with China’s economic rise, they were forced to sharply change their tune. European countries which attack China’s core interests, such as encouraging the separatist activities of the Dalai Lama, will suffer unacceptably painful consequences was the clear lesson.

China’s government, naturally, will not point out that lesson in quite such blunt terms, but other commentators can point out the truth without the requirement to observe diplomatic niceties. The UK’s leaders found that to pursue their own country’s interests they needed also to respect China’s core concerns. The contrast to the approach of Tony Abbott, Australia’s new conservative Prime Minister, who from day one in office attempted to achieve excellent relations with China, is rather evident.

This UK experience is part of a general trend in Europe in the last five years. Some European countries, notably Germany, have pursued continuously good relations with China and strongly benefitted economically as a result. But others had to go through the same learning curve as the UK Conservatives.

Five years ago, in the run up to the Beijing Olympics 2008 French president Sarkozy threatened not to attend the opening ceremony. By November 2010, when President Hu Jintao visited France, President Sarkozy did him the special courtesy of meeting him personally at the airport.

In early 2008 in Ireland a poll in the Irish Times showed a campaign for an Olympic boycott, promoted by figures from most Irish political parties, had the support of 43 percent of Ireland’s population – compared to 57 percent favoring participation. In 2012, in contrast during Xi Jinping’s visit to Ireland as Vice President, every major party and newspaper spoke in favor of closer links with China.

Since 2008, in addition to the negative effects of the European economic crisis, China’s investments in Europe have moved beyond bond purchases to major deals – particularly in infrastructure. The recent agreements with the UK followed after China’s Three Gorges Corporation bought a 21 percent stake of EDP-Energias de Portugal SA for $3.5 billion, and China Investment Corporation, China’s sovereign wealth fund, bought a nine percent stake in the holding company of the UK’s Thames Water.

There had been a strong debate in the UK media on relations with China. For example the UK Daily Telegraph carried a headline regarding Xi Jinping’s visit to the US before he became president that ‘China’s upcoming leader Xi Jinping has been wined, dined… and warned.’ In contrast the UK’s Guardian newspaper recently carried an editorial headlined ‘Chinese economy: headaches to die for’ arguing: ‘Any appraisal of China’s prospects must begin by admitting that the Middle Kingdom is the most astonishing development success story in the world today.’ Even a tabloid newspaper, such as the UK’s Daily Mirror, carried a major story emphasizing the positive role of UK trade relations with China.

Not merely the substantive agreements but the political tone of leading UK politician’s visits to China shows that this dispute has been decisively decided in favor of those who want good relations with China. This is a development which benefits both sides. While the Chinese government’s firm attitude to the UK, after the Conservative led government’s provocative approach to China, clearly showed it was willing to subordinate other considerations to defending the country’s core interests China nevertheless would evidently prefer and benefit from better relations with the UK. In addition to investment in the UK economy London is Europe’s financial capital and the world’s most important center for foreign exchange dealing –a matter of considerable interest to Chinas as it proceeds with RMB internationalization.

The UK government earlier wasted time with its futile policy towards China and it is good to see from the outcome of Osborne’s visit that dealings have returned to a rational path. The sharp reversal of the UK government’s approach showed that is suffered much more than China from its earlier policy but a ‘win-win’ approach is much more beneficial for everyone concerned.