外媒：習近平稱中國不會落入中等收入陷阱
去年11月，在黨的十八屆三中全會召開前夕，習近平在人民大會堂會見了美國智庫伯格魯恩研究院21世紀全球委員會代表團、墨西哥前總統埃內斯托·柴迪洛、英國前首相戈登·布朗、新加坡外交家馬凱碩和澳大利亞前總理保爾·基廷等人。習近平就中國如何避免中等收入陷阱、中國未來的發展等問題做出了回答。觀察者網翻譯了習近平的回答摘錄。
“中國不會落入中等收入陷阱”
在我看來，中國不會落入中等收入陷阱，因為我們的內需增長依舊強勁。
中國已經成為世界第二大經濟體。但我們依然充分意識到，中國還是發展中國家，還處於社會主義初級階段。我們的人均GDP僅約6000美元，而根據聯合國的貧困標準，即每天1美元，中國還有1億貧困人口。因此中國實現現代化還有很長的路要走。
但我們相信目標會實現，因為中國在未來10至20年都將維持高速增長的勢頭。
以中國2013年的增長為例。2013年上半年，中國經濟增長率為7.6%；第三季度這一數字為7.8%。
所以未來中國要保持怎樣的增長率？
如前所述，我們第一個百年目標是到2021年之前，將2010年的人均GDP翻一番。這意味着中國的經濟總量將達到15萬億美元。為了實現這個目標，未來十年保持7%的經濟增長率足夠了。
習近平同墨西哥前總統內斯托·柴迪洛握手
我想實現這樣的增長率不是問題——即使不採取更多刺激措施。
中國如今處於快速城鎮化，信息化、工業化和農業現代化融合的階段。因此，我相信僅內需活力就足以維持這樣的經濟增長率。
未來幾年，隨着幾億農民工進城，中國的年均城鎮化率將達到1%。今年我們將為大約1200萬人創造了工作崗位。
幾十年來，大量的農民在城市定居、工作，但中國沒有貧民窟，這是因為我們能夠保持增長並提供工作崗位。
我們正在推進綜合改革。今天，我們不可能在單個板塊或領域推進改革。任何改革都會對多個板塊產生影響，因此我們的綜合改革議程將包括經濟、社會、文化和生態領域。我們還將致力於黨的建設。
“堅持改革開放100年不動搖”
鄧小平同志曾説，中國必須堅持改革開放100年不動搖。從那時算起，也僅僅過了幾十年。我曾經説過，中國的改革開放永無止境。
説到改革開放，我認為這是中國唯一的選擇。中國越發展，就越開放。關起門來不可能發展。在中國歷史上，曾經有過閉關鎖國的時期，比如明代和清代，直至國門被武力打開。但現在，閉關鎖國是不可能的。
我們願意學習別人的先進經驗。我相信，過去30年取得的成就很大程度上是因為樂於學習其他國家和地區先進的思想、見解和經驗。
我們既學習發達國家，也學習發展中國家；既學習大型經濟體，也學習中小型經濟體。比如，我認為在改革開放早期，我們從新加坡的治理方式上獲益良多。
我們知道每種政體都有自己的優勢和劣勢。彌補自己劣勢的唯一途徑是向別人學習。我們將繼續保持開放和包容，向別人學習先進經驗。
（觀察者網 王楊 摘譯自伯格魯恩研究院網站）
翻頁為英文原文：
THE MOST POWERFUL LEADER IN THE WORLD
A conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping
President Xi Jinping talking with members of the 21st Century Council at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council sat down for a wide-ranging conversation in November with China’s President, Xi Jinping, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The group also met Premier Li Keqiang, top generals of the People’s Liberation Army and leaders of the National People’s Congress as well as governors and party secretaries from Zhejiang, Guangdong and Yunnan provinces.
Following are edited excerpts of the discussion with President Xi who responded to questions from the group, including from Mexico’s former president Ernesto Zedillo on how China could avoid the “middle income trap” as well as from former British prime minister Gordon Brown, Singapore’s Kishore Mahbubani and Australia’s former prime minister Paul Keating on China’s international role and responsibilities.
•Opening remarks by Xi Jinping
I appreciate that you have traveled long distances to come to China to understand this country. As we Chinese say, one needs to read ten thousand books and journey ten thousand miles to gain understanding. Since China is an ancient civlization with over 5000 years of history sometimes we ourselves don’t even know where to start.
There is a famous poem about Lushan mountain. The poem says that when you view it from different directions, you get a different impression of how the mountain looks. And maybe my own perspective has limitations. As the poem also says, you won’t have the whole picture of the mountain if you yourself are on it.
But let me try to give you my view from the perspective as president of this big country.
What are the primary goals for China? We summarize them as two centenary goals: First, we aim to double the 2010 level of GDP per capita income and build a moderately prosperous society by 2021 when the Communist Party of China marks its 100th anniversary.
The second goal is to turn China into an all-around modern and socially advanced country by the middle of the century when the People’s Republic marks its centenary.
When I was selected the general secretary of the Communist Party of China I put forward the idea of the “Chinese Dream.” The Chinese Dream is about the renewal and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and civilization and its positive contribution to global peace and development. At the same time the Chinese Dream is also about creating an opportunity for every person to achieve his or her own dream.
China’s success over recent decades testifies to the fact that we have identified the right path of development. As the ancient Chinese philosopher and poet Qu Yuan said, the journey is long but I will continue to search for the right way and then tread along that path with unbending perseverance.
Since the Opium War over 170 years ago we have been seeking a way to renew our country. Over 100 years ago (at the founding of the Chinese Republic in 1912) we first put forward the idea of revitalizing the Chinese nation. And since then we billion Chinese have been working hard to find the right path of development. And now we have found it.
We now have the confidence in our own theory, our system and our own path based on our national conditions. We believe that as long as we continue on this right path of development, we will be able to finally attain the goal of rejuvenation we have long sought.
Never before have the Chinese people been so close to the realization of the dream as we are today.
•On the sustainability of China’s development model and avoiding the “middle income trap” where wages rise, competitiveness falls and growth stalls.
Personally, I don’t believe we will fall into the “middle income trap” because our internal growth remains dynamic.
China has become the second largest economy in the world. But still we are fully aware of the fact that we are a developing country at the primary stage of building socialism. Our per capita GDP is just about $6,000, and by the UN standard of poverty, which is $1 per day, there are still 100 million Chinese people living in poverty. So we still have a long way to go to turn China into a modern country.
There are good reasons to conclude that we will get there since China will continue to sustain its momentum for the next 10-20 years.
Take China’s economic development in 2013 as an example. In the first half of the year, China’s economy grew at a rate of 7.6 per cent; the GDP growth for the third quarter was 7.8%.
So at what kind of speed should China grow in the years to come?
As I mentioned, our first centenary goal is to double the 2010 per capita GDP by 2021. That means that China’s total economy would reach $15 trillion. To achieve that goal, 7% GDP growth rate would be enough over the next decade.
I don’t think to achieve that rate of growth is a problem for us – even without any further stimulus measures,
China is now at a stage of rapid development of urbanization, integration of information technology, industrialization and agricultural modernization. Therefore, as I said, I believe the internal dynamism alone will be able to sustain such a rate of economic growth.
For years to come, there will be 1 per cent increase in China’s urbanization rate every year as several hundred million Chinese farmers will migrate into the cities. And this year we will create job opportunities for about 12 million people.
For decades now already, large numbers of farmers have come to settle and work in the cities, but there are no urban slums in China precisely because we have been able to maintain growth and provide job opportunities.
[As this group gathers here in Beijing], we are launching a plan of comprehensive reform. Nowadays, it is not possible for us to pursue a reform in any single sector or particular realm. Any reform will have an impact across various sectors and so our comprehensive reform agenda will involve steps in economic, social, cultural and ecological fields. We will also focus on Party building.
(Editor’s note: Just after our meeting, the Third Plenum announced a broad array of reforms. The new policies promise to end labor camps, ease the one-child policy and migrant-residency requirement in cities, grant property rights to farmers, and open up many new areas to a “decisive” role for the market. A new national security council was also formed under President Xi to give him more direct control over foreign affairs and domestic security.)
Deng Xiaoping once said China must pursue and continue the reform and opening up for at least 100 years. Since the time he made those remarks, only decades have passed. I have said that there is no end to China’s reform endeavor.
Talking about opening up, I believe it is now the only option for China. The more China develops the more it must open wider to the outside. It is impossible for China to develop with its doors closed. In China’s history, there were times when the door was closed – for example during the Ming and Qing Dynasties and also when it was imposed from the outside. But now closing the door is no longer possible.
“The more China develops the more it must open wider to the outside. It is impossible for China to develop with its doors closed.”
We have been most ready to draw upon good experience of others. I believe to a large extent the reason we have achieved so much in the past 30 years is that we have been open to learning from the advanced thinking, ideas and experience of other countries and regions.
We learn both from developing countries and developed countries, big economies and modest-sized economies. For example, I believe we learned a lot from the government of Singapore in the early days of China’s reform and opening up.
We know that each and every individual system has its own advantages and disadvantages. The only way to make up for your own shortcomings is to learn from others. And we will continue to be most open-minded and inclusive, drawing upon the good experience from others in the future.
•On China’s Global Role and Responsibilities
On one hand I believe China needs to continue to run its own affairs well. We need to achieve the right balance in our own development and do more to tackle the disparities that still exist in the country.
At the same time we recognize that as China gets bigger in terms of its economy, we need to take on greater international responsibility. China is ready to shoulder more international obligations and play a more proactive role in international affairs as well as the reform of the international system.
“China is ready to shoulder more international obligations and play a more proactive role in international affairs as well as the reform of the international system."
The argument that strong countries are bound to seek hegemony does not apply to China. This is not in the DNA of this country given our long historical and cultural background. Also China fully understands that we need a peaceful and stable internal and external environment to develop ourselves.
We all to need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap -- destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers, or between established powers themselves.
Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations in three aspects.
First is a no confrontational or zero-sum mentality. Second is mutual respect for other’s path of development and cultural heritage. Third, to seek common ground on issues of common interests in pursuit of win-win progress. As long as the major countries follow these principles, no war will break out in the world.
“We all to need to work together to avoid the so-called Thucydides trap -- destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers, or between established powers themselves. “
In multilateral organizations, China contributes a great share and observes the rules, keeping its actions within the norms governing international relations. This is what China has been doing in the G20, The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), The United Nations Security Council, the Shanghai Cooperative Organization and the (Brazil, Russia, India, China) BRICS mechanism. And we wish we could do even more in the future.
Maybe I have talked too much and too long. I hope I have answered the questions you raised in presenting my personal perspective and line of thinking.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Others in the Council’s group meeting with President Xi included Francis Fukuyama, Reid Hoffman, Eric Schmidt, Jared Cohen, Arianna Huffington, Kevin Rudd, Mario Monti, Shaukat Aziz, Juan Luis Cebrian, Nathan Gardels, Fareed Zakaria, Gideon Rachman, Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Schwarzman, Dawn Nakagawa, George Yeo, David Bonderman, Kishore Mahbubani, Paul Keating, Ernesto Zedillo, Felipe Gonzalez, Gordon Brown, Ronnie Chan, Pierre Omidyar, Zheng Bijian, Nicolas Berggruen, Ricardo Lagos, Dambisa Moyo, Aleksei Kudrin, Alain Minc, Wu Jianmin, Feng Wei, and Fred Hu.