李世默：安倍的“新日本人”和他們的爺爺

數日前，美國總統奧巴馬在西點軍校畢業典禮上發表演講。在這次備受期待的演講中，奧巴馬試圖重新定義美國的外交方針。奧巴馬申明，只有在美國的利益遭遇直接威脅時，才考慮在海外進行軍事幹預。這大概是近年以來，美國官方在海外軍事幹預政策上制定的最“剋制”的標準。或許，由於伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亞戰爭代價高昂、教訓慘痛，美國的外交政策不得不開始自我反思。或許，由於民眾持續呼籲重建本國的社會基礎，反對在遙遠異國他鄉煽風點火，華盛頓也不能一再視若罔聞。

許多人士擔心，由於美國轉而關注國內，並壓縮海外行動，全球秩序可能出現失衡。不過且不用急，因為安倍晉三已迫不及待要登場，扮演救世主了。

安倍晉三在主題演講中拋出了一個刺耳的新概念，即“新日本人”

上週末，新加坡政府鋪開紅地毯，歡迎參加2014年香格里拉對話的日本首相安倍晉三。在新加坡領導人李光耀、李顯龍父子的見證下，安倍晉三在主題演講中拋出了一個刺耳的新概念，即“新日本人”。安倍説，現代日本人是國際化的、熱愛和平的新日本人，將自信地向海外邁進，在亞洲甚至全球保衞國際秩序。

安倍晉三的演講主題鮮明，指向明確：中國是敵人（當然沒有公開指名）；日本將恪守國際法，守護亞洲的和平與穩定；任何國家如選擇與中國發生衝突，日本都將給予支持。關於最後一點，安倍公然聲稱，日本將從政治、經濟甚至軍事上支持越南、菲律賓等國。安倍特別強調，日本將為中國的對手提供海軍裝備。

安倍有一點沒有説錯，即亞洲已成為增長的象徵。近幾十年來，或許亞洲比任何地區都更多地受益於當下的全球秩序。亞洲的繁榮無異於現代世界的一個奇蹟。

亞洲奇蹟有兩大重要支柱。第一，美國設計、建立並維持的全球經濟、安全架構，保證了地區和平，為經濟發展提供了穩定環境；其中，一個被戰後和平憲法規約的日本是重要因素之一。第二，中國作為亞洲最大的國家，已成為最重要的增長引擎，不僅是繁榮時期的火車頭，更是蕭條時期的助推器。

但在眼下，支撐亞洲奇蹟的雙支柱結構開始動搖。與歷史上過度擴張的各大帝國一樣，美國正遭遇嚴重困境。遍及全球的軍事幹預，耗盡了美國的資源。美國對全球化進程的控制和領導，其代價是自身經濟的極度失衡。美國式的社會契約，是這個國家一個半世紀來成功的基礎，現在正逐漸崩壞。美國終於意識到，維持全球秩序的成本已遠遠超出收益。這正是奧巴馬西點演講的主題，儘管官方仍然高喊口號，美國面臨的真正問題不是戰略重心轉移，而是如何在撤退中避免失衡。

與此同時，中國全方位的快速崛起超出了最樂觀的觀察者預料。世界銀行估計，以購買力平價（PPP）計算，中國今年將登頂世界第一大經濟體。在經濟崛起的同時，中國自然會尋求在亞洲拓展、保護自身的利益。

目前的局勢十分明顯。先前的霸權國正在撤退，而新興的大國正拓展影響。在這個新舊更替的歷史進程中，並沒有什麼確定的規則。

這個局勢下，安倍晉三高調提出了他的提案——我們“新日本人”來承包吧！

當下，美國的心態十分尷尬，既急於卸下亞洲的戰略包袱，又不願坐視中國取而代之，成為新的領導者。由於這種心態，美國的政客很樂意為安倍的高調再加把火。翌日，美國國防部長哈格爾就表示全力支持安倍的立場。

但這是在玩火！

美國當地時間6月3日李世默在worldpost刊發《安倍的“新日本人”和他們的爺爺》，同日安倍晉三文章《中日應該坐下來談談》在該文下方刊出

 

 

   

古希臘歷史學家修昔底德寫道，人類發動戰爭不外乎三個原因：榮譽、恐懼或利益。亞太地區的和平無疑符合每個人的利益，但在修昔底德的要素中也不過三佔其一。鼓吹以中國為敵，摧毀支撐亞洲奇蹟的基石，轉而炮製以日本為首的地區同盟來遏制中國，安倍晉三和在背後煽風點火的美國政客無疑是在不負責任地鋌而走險。

人口老化、經濟停滯的日本，面對強大的中國難免感到恐懼。如帶頭煽動整個亞太區域反華，日本只會更加草木皆兵。而在中國，由於歷史上幾代民眾備受日本侵略者蹂躪，只會感到民族榮譽遭遇侵犯，由此激發的反應將更為強烈。

本文英文發表於《南華早報》及赫芬頓《世界郵報》，圖為《世界郵報》截圖

很多人宣揚説，中國正在打破現狀。這種説法不是毫無根據，畢竟美國的利益和中國的地位都有根本性變化，一成不變的現狀是沒有的。但是，在尊重現狀的基礎上，亞洲的秩序可以和平有序地演變，而日本篡改歷史和現狀的企圖，對上述進程是致命威脅。

日本如此野心勃勃地企圖重建軍事大國，對支撐整個戰後亞洲秩序的國際法體系，是一大打擊。中國與亞洲各國是不會容忍日本這一修正企圖的。

據安倍晉三聲稱，日本領導的亞洲秩序將按照國際法解決一切爭端，這完全是欺世之言。全世界都目睹了中日兩國在釣魚島（日本稱為尖閣諸島）上的緊張摩擦，而日本至今堅決不承認存在爭端。在演講現場被一位觀眾問及釣魚島爭端時，安倍再次申明瞭日本的立場：釣魚島不存在爭端。當然，既然日本政府連存在爭端都不願承認，尊重國際法也不過是空言了。

此外，日本的歷史包袱十分沉重，且長期以來拒絕正視。因此，打造並維護亞洲安全體系，日本當不了美國蘋果的富士康。僅僅兩代人以前，日本侵略了中國、韓國以及東南亞各國，所到之處燒殺淫掠。僅在南京一地，日本軍隊在幾天內就屠殺了成千上萬的男女老幼。

在與東京簽訂外包合同前，美國最好再仔細聽聽安倍晉三的香格里拉演講。在最後總結中，安倍説“新日本人”與他們的父輩和祖父輩一樣，期望對世界有所貢獻。每個中國人或韓國人都必須問一句：誰是那些安倍晉三如此自豪標榜的爺爺們？

（李世默是上海的風險投資家和政治學者。英文原文發表於《南華早報》及《世界郵報》，翻頁查看英文全文。）

本文同步發表於新華網社交網絡新平台：新華思客

 

   

ABE’S “NEW JAPANESE” AND THEIR GRANDFATHERS

By:  Eric X. Li

Singapore – A few days ago, President Obama sought to define for America a new foreign policy doctrine.  In his much anticipated West Point Military Academy commencement speech, he set a bar for American military intervention abroad that is the highest in recent memory – when America’s interests are directly threatened.  Perhaps the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya are beginning to sink in and be structurally reflected in American foreign policy.  Perhaps the demands of the American people for a “pivot” to Ohio, rather than the far-flung oceans of Asia, are finally being heard. 

Many worry that a self-reflective and retrenching America is leaving a void in the world’s balance of power.   But hold your breath, here is Shinzo Abe coming to the rescue. 

Over the weekend, the Republic of Singapore rolled out the red carpet for the Japanese Prime Minister at this year’s Shangri La Dialogue.  In his keynote address, as Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his father, the founder of the city state, Lee Kuan Yew looked on, Mr. Abe proposed a ground breaking new concept: The New Japanese.  This new breed of international and peace-loving contemporary Japanese are to confidently step forward and safeguard the world order, at least in Asia. 

There was only one theme to Mr. Abe’s speech and it can be summarized as follows:  China is the enemy (without naming it, of course).  Japan is the new steward of peace and stability in Asia on the basis of rule of law.  Japan will support whichever countries decide to oppose China.  Here he did name some, Vietnam and the Philippines.  Japan will back them politically, economically, and, yes, militarily.  Japanese naval hardware is to be made available to China’s adversaries. 

Mr. Abe rightly pointed out that Asia has been synonymous to growth.   In the past few decades, perhaps no region has benefited more from the current global order than here.  Asia’s prosperity is nothing short of a miracle of the modern era.

This amazing achievement has been built on two pillars.  First, the global economic and security architecture designed, built, and sustained by the United States has served as the guarantor of regional peace upon which economic development has depended.  And a post World War II legally pacifist Japan is a key component of that architecture.  Second, China, the largest nation in Asia, has been the single most important engine of growth that has served as a locomotive in good times and the growth of last resort in bad times. 

《南華早報》截圖

At the moment, the twin pillar foundation of the Asian miracle is in trouble.   The United States is suffering from an acute case of imperial overreach.  Its military involvements around the world have drained its resources.  Its leadership of the globalization project has caused deep and structural imbalances in its own economy.  Its social contract, the bedrock of American success for a century and a half, is seriously threatened.  America has now found that the costs of sustaining the global order far exceed the benefits.   Mr. Obama’s West Point speech says as much.   Rhetorical statements by American officials aside, the real question facing America is not how to pivot to where, it is how to rebalance back home. 

At the same time, China’s dramatic ascent in all aspects of its national power has surprised even the most optimistic observers.  The World Bank estimates that China will take the helm of the largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity this year.  No one can reasonably expect China not to seek to advance and protect its interests in the region. 

So we have a situation in which an incumbent hegemon is retrenching and a fast rising new power is making its presence felt.  And there are no established rules to manage this process. 

Mr. Abe’s proposal?   Outsource it all to us – the New Japanese! 

At the moment, perhaps in their desire to reduce their hard commitments to the region but not let China take their place as the new hegemon, the Americans seem to be enthusiastically entertaining the proposition.  Defense Secretary Hagel backed Japan unreservedly in his speech the next day. 

But it is a bad idea.

Thucydides once wrote, people go to war for three reasons: honor, fear, and interests.   Peace is obviously in everyone’s interests.  But it only constitutes a third in Thucydides’ formula.  In seeking to single out China as the enemy and thereby putting one of the twin pillars of Asian success in binary opposition to a regional alliance to be led by Japan, Mr. Abe and his American backers are playing with fire. 

Japan, with declining demographics and a stagnant economy, is in fear of a powerful China.  That fear would be magnified by such an alliance of convenience.  China, whose people have endured immeasurable sufferings in the hands of the Japanese through multiple generations, would have its national honor challenged and its reactions would be amplified. 

The common narrative presented by many is that China is a challenger of the status quo.  That is of course true to some extent, as the status quo cannot go on forever with qualitative changes to America’s interests and China’s position.   But Japan’s revisionist approach to both history and the present poses a real threat to the prospects of an evolution of the status quo that could lead to a peaceful outcome. 

In so aggressively seeking to reemerge as a military power Japan is dangerously removing a key legal underpinning of the entire post World War II regional architecture.  China, and many other Asian nations, will not consent to that revision. 

Mr. Abe’s claim to want to lead an Asia based on rule of law in resolving any and all disputes is flatly disingenuous.  The entire world knows and sees the dangerous territorial disputes that are being played out between China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands (called Senkakus by Japan).  Yet, Japan vehemently denies even the existence of dispute.  When asked by a member of the audience after his speech about the dispute, Mr. Abe re-confirmed Japan’s position: there is no dispute.  And of course, when one refuses to recognize dispute, rule of law becomes irrelevant. 

Furthermore, Japan’s enormous historic baggage and its steadfast refusal to live up to it make it impossible for it to effectively play Foxconn to the American Apple in Asian security.   Merely two generations ago, Japan invaded China, Korea, and many South East Asian countries and massacred their peoples.   In Nanjing alone, the Japanese Imperial Army slaughtered tens of thousands of men, women, and children in a matter of days.  

Before the Americans sign their outsourcing contract with Tokyo, they would be well advised to listen carefully to Mr. Abe’s Shangri La speech.  In his concluding remarks, he said that the New Japanese are really no different from their parents and grandparents in seeking to contribute to the world.  For every Chinese and every Korean, it begs the question:  Just who were those grandfathers Mr. Abe was so proudly referring to?

Eric X. Li is a venture capitalist and political scientist in Shanghai.

（《南華早報》原文鏈接：http://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1525221/shinzo-abes-plan-new-japanese-lead-asia-raises-old-fears

《世界郵報》原文鏈接：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-x-li/shinzo-abe-new-japanese_b_5439491.html?utm_hp_ref=world ）