沙燁：互聯網與平行宇宙
【本文英文版刊發於今日的南華早報。作者沙燁授權觀察者網刊發中英雙語文稿。】
2014年9月，阿里巴巴開始了人類歷史上最大的上市歷程。這是一個互聯網企業向世界宣告勝利的時刻。評論家們都相互讚歎着互聯網改變世界的巨大力量。這兒我想講一個不同的故事，一個關於互聯網如何創造了不同的宇宙，一個並行宇宙的傳説。
馬雲將成為首個幾乎與地產無關的內地首富
前兩天晚上我和一個年輕的企業家在一個日本燒烤店晚餐。隔着淺黃色的餐桌和嫋嫋輕煙，我看着這個二十多歲的年輕人。在短短兩三年內，他創建了中國最大的移動廣告公司之一。他的公司在不同的國界之間推廣移動應用。其業務為公司獲取了可觀的利潤，也為他掙得了上億美元的身家。人類歷史上從未有過如此的年齡卻能以如此的速度積累財富。在那一瞬間，我彷彿有了頓悟。這個年輕人是另一個宇宙中主人們的一員。那是一個互聯網創造出的並行宇宙。
穿過一些特殊的輸送門，人們被輸運到那個並行宇宙。以前這些輸送門是通過一些固定的設備來開啓。那些設備叫個人電腦。而現在新一代的輸送門能夠通過移動智能手機隨時開啓。一旦被輸運到新的宇宙，人們的大腦被完全佔據，注意力徹底沉迷，對原來物理宇宙不再有任何感知。
在之前的農業革命和工業革命裏，社會的發展遵循着一些基本的法則。這些法則包括經典牛頓物理理論，達爾文進化理論，和社會關係的積累法則。
經典牛頓物理理論讓我們知道質量，速度和能量的關係。要把任何物體搬移，我們需要能量。物體的質量越大，速度越快，需要的能量也越大。這個簡單的法則讓人類社會的發展速度受到基本的約束。
達爾文進化理論被用來解釋個體，羣組乃至社會通過自然選擇的過程如何進化和生存。我們積累物質財富，尋找兩性夥伴，組羣結社，都是為了一個根本的目的。這就是讓我們的基因在自然選擇的競爭過程中能夠生存流傳。
社會關係的積累法則和人的社會性有關。人是社會動物。在人類文明的發展過程中，我們慢慢形成了羣組，村莊，城市和國家。這些社會結構影響着我們所有的行為，同時也為自由跨越這些結構創造了壁壘。要成為一個成功的社會動物，你需要能夠掌握和掌控這些社會結構，而這需要時間和經驗的積累。
在新的互聯網並行宇宙裏，這些法則不再適用。電子以光速穿行。一鍵之間，萬物可以生長，也可以湮滅。輸運到這裏的人們，不再有任何物理外觀特徵。他們沉浸在這個宇宙，不是為了基因的延續，而是為了大腦的刺激愉悦。物理宇宙裏的社會結構更是和這裏毫不相關。如果這裏有任何法則的話，那是這個宇宙的主人們在他們自己創建的疆域裏制定的。每個疆域的主人可以為他的疆域制定他所想要的任何規則。互聯網宇宙的主人們常常有着共同的特性。他們有着年輕的物理年齡，可他們遠比常人更熟悉這裏的空氣。Facebook是互聯網宇宙裏最大的疆域之一。扎克伯格則是這個疆域的王。而坐在我對面的這個年輕人正在這個宇宙裏開疆拓土，建功立業。
互聯網形成了並行宇宙
如果有一個法則是這兩個宇宙共享的話，那也許是時間的法則。不管你在哪個宇宙，只要你的大腦會隨着身體消亡，你永遠只有這點時間。
在這兩個宇宙之間有着不少連接器。這些連接器是通過那些以電子商務或者線上到線下作為商業模式的公司來完成。這些公司的主體在互聯網宇宙，卻要引入物理宇宙裏的資源來形成完整的交易。通過這些連接器，互聯網宇宙改變，侵蝕，分解着物理宇宙，如同用巨大的觸手在一個活體上源源不斷地吸取能量。阿里巴巴和亞馬遜是最好的例子，它們成功地轉變和吞噬了很多傳統的零售業。物理宇宙裏的實體除了配合和改變外別無他法。抵抗是無效的。如果不合作，就等着慢慢消亡。
這兩個宇宙會不會在某個時間點達到一種平衡？當物理宇宙裏的那些法則被破壞到一定的程度，它們會不會反彈？如果物理宇宙消散淋漓，互聯網宇宙也會皮之不存，毛將焉附。可真是這樣嗎？
我們能否在Matrix時刻到來之前止步？電影Matrix(黑客帝國)描述了一個未來：人們除了維護身體運轉的能量，所有在現實世界中的渴望都能在虛擬世界裏得到，甚至更多！
沒有人知道答案。在那個時刻到達之前，我還是可以盡情投資於互聯網宇宙，再回到我的物理宇宙來享受獲取的利潤。
在阿里巴巴的路演途中，全世界的投資人簇擁而至，希望能從IPO中分一杯羹。馬雲，綽號“外星人”。短短15年內，這個無畏的企業家從西湖邊起步，打造了中國互聯網最大的王國，也讓他自己成為了中國的新首富。“也許他本來就屬於那個宇宙”。想到這個，我終於能為自己的碌碌而釋然，轉身回到我温軟的牀上。
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A Tale of Two Universes
With Alibaba launching the biggest IPO in human history, much has been said about how internet changed the world. Here I want to tell a tale about how Internet creates a separate universe, a parallel universe.
The other night, I was having Japanese grill with a young entrepreneur. Divided by the dinner table, through the faint smokes, I was looking at this young man, just barely in his mid-twenties. In only a couple of years, he has built a mobile advertising company. The company promotes mobile applications across national borders, generating significant profit for the company and a net worth of hundreds of millions for himself. Never before could people of this young age amass wealth in such pace. Suddenly I had an epiphany. This young man is actually one of the masters in another universe. A parallel universe created by the Internet.
People are transported to this new universe through “portals”. These portals used to be of fixed locations through a device called personal computer. Now, new generations of advanced mobile portals called smart-phones are engineered. Once transported, people’s brains are completely absorbed into and immersed in this new universe, making them ignorant of what’s happening in their old physical universe.
In the earlier agricultural and industrial revolutions, the basic laws of we used to define and guide our behaviors were still intact. These laws include the law of Newtonian physics, the law of Darwinian evolution, and the law of social accumulation.
The law of Newtonian physics deals with mass, speed, and energy. To move anything around, you need energy. The heavier the mass, the faster the speed, the more energy is required. This simple law puts a constraint on how fast the society can physically change.
The law of Darwinian evolution is used to explain how Individuals, groups, and civilizations evolve and survive by means of natural selection. We accumulate material wealth, seek sexual partners, and form groups, all for the ultimate purpose that our genes can out-survive our competitors.
The law of social accumulation encapsulates man as a social animal. Through the course of our civilization, we form villages, cities and states. These social structures shape our social behaviors, and in the process create barriers for anyone who wants to cross. To be successful as a social animal, you need to be able to navigate and master the social structure. And that takes time and experience.
Now in this parallel universe called Internet, none of the above laws exists. Electrons are moving at light speed. Objects, no matter large or small, can be created or destroyed with the press of a button. People, stripped of their physical characteristics, dwell in this universe, not for the survival of their genes, but the pure stimulation of their minds. And old social structures do not matter. If there are any laws in this new universe, they are the laws created by the masters or sovereigns of this new universe. These masters are usually of young physical ages yet have breathed in the Internet universe longer than most of us. Each master can demand his own ruling laws in the digital nation that he creates. Facebook is one of the largest such nations, with Mark Zuckerberg its king. And the young man sitting across me is aspiring to create a major one.
If there is any law shared by the two universes, it is probably the law of time. No matter which universe you are in, as long as your brain will die with your physical body, the clock is ticking.
There are connectors between the two universes. They are businesses with ecommerce or online to offline business models. These businesses pull in resources from the physical universe to complete transactions in the Internet universe. Through these connectors, the Internet universe changes, disrupts and erodes the physical universe like sucking energy out of a living body using tentacles. Alibaba and Amazon are perfect examples, transforming and devouring the traditional retail industries with their rise. The entities in the physical universe have no choice but to cooperate and transform. Resistance is futile. Those who don’t will run the risk of extinction.
Will there be a time that the two universes will reach a state of equilibrium, when the laws of the physical universe are disrupted to such a degree that they eventually resist. After all, the Internet universe still has to rely on the physical universe as its foundation. Or does it?
Will we be able to turn back before we reach the “Matrix moment”: other than the energy to sustain our body and brain, we can have anything we want in this Internet universe?
Nobody knows the answer. Before that, I can still keep betting on and investing in the Internet universe, and enjoy the profits in my physical universe.
As Alibaba starts its IPO road show, investors from all over the world are scrambling to get a piece of the action. In merely fifteen years, Jack Ma, the audacious entrepreneur from the scenic city of Hangzhou with a nickname called “Alien”, has built the largest Internet empire in China, making himself the richest person. Maybe he is NOT of this universe after all. With this thought, I can finally have peace with myself, and go to my comfortable bed.