龍與象：攜手中國，趕超中國-瓦特薩拉·卡瑪特

（觀察者網 楊晗軼、王璐菲/譯，原文見最後一頁）

在中國主席習近平出訪印度之前，外界對此次為期三日的國事訪問有着極高的期待，認為兩國經貿關係將迎來嶄新的時代。剛剛結束的訪問果然達到了這樣的預期！新當選印度總理的納倫德拉·莫迪曾許諾將拉動基礎設施建設、擴充製造業；而去年就任國家主席的習近平，則致力於深化改革以及對外輸出專業知識技術，以應對中國經濟增長減速的挑戰。此次習近平訪印選的時間點可謂完美。

這是中國國家主席八年來首次訪問印度，也是印度獨立以來的第三次。巧合的是，不僅習近平是中國首位出生於1949年建國後的領導人，莫迪也是首位出生於1947年獨立後的印度總統。兩人都對各自所在地區乃至全世界抱有良好的政治意願。中印兩國的經濟都面臨着新挑戰，都需要新風貌。

雙方領導人表示，為了兩國的和平進步，除了確保睦鄰友好關係之外，還需建立強大的經濟和文化聯繫。這一表態將“習莫會”推向了頂點。中國五年內將向印度投資200億美元，雖低於之前媒體熱炒的1000億美元，可能也低於日本有意投向印度的330億美元，但其手筆顯然比過去14年在印投入4億美元的美國要大得多。

中印兩國為亞洲地區樹立了新典範。中國和印度兩個千百年來相依並存的文明古國，演化為當今兩個龐大的經濟體，中印之間的合作，將對亞洲地區的經濟與地緣政治產生舉足輕重的影響。

中印兩國人口總計佔全世界人口的三分之一。更重要的是，兩大經濟體都在全球經濟中發揮顯著的作用。中國出口貿易額佔全球出口總額的16.8％（這一數字在三十年前約為1％），遠遠大於印度所佔的1.6％。中印雙邊貿易總額已攀升至650億美元，然而印度卻面臨着巨大的貿易赤字。或許中國在印度的200億美元投資能幫助後者削減這個赤字。

龍與象：在競爭中成長的夥伴

取中國之長，補印度之短

事實上，經過三十年熾熱的增長，中國現已是僅次於美國的第二大經濟體。中國在經濟方面已經領先印度一大步——畢竟，中國於1978年便在鄧小平的規劃下，啓動了經濟改革和對外開放；而印度的經濟自由化比中國晚了大約十年。

是的，在世界市場上，無論是皮革、紡織品、汽車和汽車零部件，中國與印度是競爭者。自1962年中印邊境戰爭以來，兩國偶有小摩擦。此次莫迪邀請中國國家主席訪印，除了主動表達善意以及鞏固與強大鄰國的關係之外，還基於加強印度製造業和基礎設施建設的現實考慮。

中國在世界市場能有今天的實力，一個關鍵的原因是在上世紀80年代，基建等資本密集行業很快就吸引到了外商直接投資，中國利用其龐大的勞動力，打造出世界首屈一指的大規模製造業。反觀印度，披着民主外衣，卻是自身官僚體系的犧牲品。多年以來，印度未能改善基礎設施惡劣的條件，幾乎停留在英國殖民者離開時的水平。

9月17日，國家主席習近平在古吉拉特邦艾哈邁達巴德會見印度總理莫迪。這是會見前，莫迪在習近平下榻的賓館前迎接習近平和夫人彭麗媛

此時此刻，印度最迫切需要的便是改善基礎設施。供應緊張導致商品和服務價格居高不下。印度還需加速發展製造業。然而，這些進程還缺少靈活的推動者：在政府層面和官僚層面，決策進度緩慢；在銀行方面，由於很難判斷資產流動性，所以放貸時處處提防。

莫迪曾做出“智能城市”、“子彈頭列車”、“經濟特區”以及“工業園”等一系列承諾。在不久的將來，中國將幫助印度建設兩個工業園：位於古吉拉特邦的輸變電設備工業園，以及位於馬哈拉施特拉邦的汽車零部件工業園。

雙方簽署了一系列諒解備忘錄以及合作協議，涵蓋改善印度鐵路系統、進一步向印度開放醫藥市場、開發外太空、視聽產品生產等方面。中國還將向印度公司提供信貸額度。這將為兩國以及兩國商界開創一個雙贏的局面。

對印度來説，關鍵點在於，莫迪能否成功地推動城市發展和建設出口導向型經濟？或者説，印度現在還有可能奮起直追甚至超過中國嗎？

  一些分析家認為，印度經濟的基數較低，大量有形資產的創造以及趨於年輕的人口，都是促使印度經濟增長回到正軌的利好因素。目前，按大多數社會經濟指標衡量，無論是人均國內生產總值（GDP）還是汽車保有量；是互聯網用户數還是城鎮人口；甚至兒童死亡率等方面，中印兩國的差距都相當明顯。中國年復一年以前不見古人的速度增長，直到幾個月前才有所減緩。

世界經濟論壇最新發布的全球競爭力排名（衡量國家有多適宜經商的指標）顯示，中國的整體競爭力在全球排第28位，印度排第71位。在基礎設施和宏觀經濟環境這兩個單項指標上，中國分列第46位和第10位;印度則居第87位和第101位。

中國在2011年前的5年內鋪設的鐵軌長度，幾乎是印度自獨立以來67年內鋪設的鐵軌總長的四倍。這是中國進步的一大里程碑。並且，在國內生產總值（GDP）這一關鍵指標上，中國還能以7%左右的增長率昂首闊進，而印度卻難以突破5%的瓶頸。

印度的不幸並非只在於改革起步較晚，政令阻塞才是導致供應緊張的真正原因。過去幾十年中，無數私募股權、合資企業和外商直接投資推動了中印兩國的增長，未來預計將有更多資本進入印度。印度當前需要做的，在是土地、環境和法律審批程序上採用“單一窗口模式”快速通過，才能讓雄心勃勃的藍圖變成現實。否則，一旦歷史重演，政策推行陷入僵局，投資者和國內公司都可能對印度政府假大空的承諾失去信心。

9月18日，國家主席習近平在新德里同印度總理莫迪舉行會談。這是會談後，習近平與莫迪共同會見記者

中國能從印度取什麼經？

視線轉向中國。中國雖仍領先於其西面鄰國印度，但自身也面臨着經濟增速放緩的威脅。得益於勞動力廉價、成本低、融資便捷及決策迅速等優勢，中國的增長一向靠數字説話。可是今年，騰飛的巨龍失去了扶搖直上的勢頭，正在力爭保住7.5%的年度增長目標。中國的工業生產、出口、石油進口、房地產價格及發電量的增長率都在縮水，成本則在螺旋上升。這令國際市場感到不安，因為中國的貿易對世界經濟至關重要。

舉幾個例子。研究人員指出，中國的汽車出口業正處於2008年全球金融危機以來最差水平。中國的輪胎生產和橡膠使用量減少，亞洲產膠國供應量提升，導致世界市場上橡膠價格下跌。同時，中國正在調整某些領域的政策，例如從支撐棉花價格、堆積庫存供給棉紡廠轉變為直接補貼棉農，這導致世界市場上棉花價格忽上忽下。

中國應對經濟放緩的第一個舉措是，央行向五大銀行大量注資增加流動性，監管部門也着手整肅違規交易。據報，中國的融資成本正在上升。

此時此刻，中國企業尋找更青嫩的投資牧場就説得通了。中印兩國的合作甚至可以着眼於整合中國在計算機硬件與電信方面的實力，以及印度在軟件方面的實力。畢竟，在1990年代時，印度國營機械部門在基礎設施和有形資產建設方面落後於中國，是印度的私營企業利用計算機軟件技術及英語人才的優勢，以軟件和外包的方式，創造了數百萬就業崗位並帶來了經濟收入。

同樣，與東南亞諸國及中國相比，印度在科學研究、小眾電子及半導體行業、精密儀器儀表設計、醫療和製藥等領域的成就值得誇耀。

此外，印度透明的銀行系統及嚴格的資本市場監管對境外機構投資者前來投資是一種鼓勵，中國或許可以從中汲取經驗。印度的公司治理和對知識產權的尊重，也應成為中國同行仿效的榜樣。

新話語，新時代

隨着地緣政治問題逐漸得到解決，中印兩國互相競爭、攜手合作比過去更加勢在必行。兩國領導人看來也認識到了這一點。習近平説：“‘世界工廠’和‘世界管理後台’的強強聯合，將形成最具競爭力的生產基地、最具吸引力的消費市場”；莫迪也抒發了類似的情懷：“印度與中國每一次共同合作、共同成長，都帶動了世界發展和經濟繁榮。”

兩國元首都巧妙地談及要努力保持邊境和平，這對經濟發展至關重要。中印簽署的合作協議甚至還包括了藝術、文化、電影、文化交流等方面。不要忘了，兩國的本土醫學各有專長——中國有穴位按摩法、針灸術和太極拳，印度有阿育吠陀長生術和瑜伽。

習近平訪印期間，除為公司提供信貸額度以外，中印兩國銀行業還達成了協作，這是兩國金融關係的又一項重要里程碑。

不過，毫無疑問，印度在收入和經濟方面的核心指標上與中國的差距還很大。印度人均GDP為1250美元，遠遠低於中國6700美元的水平，及其他收入更高的發展中國家。汽車擁有量是衡量制造業的關鍵標準，根據世界各地汽車協會發布的數據，印度的汽車普及率很低，每千人只擁有2.6輛汽車，而中國的千人汽車擁有量為16.2輛，巴西為19.0輛，韓國為30.7輛。

有人認為，中國龍正在失去進攻性，而蹲伏多年的印度虎則已準備好騰空飛躍。不過正如諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、哈佛大學經濟學教授阿馬蒂亞·森多年前所指出的：“把中國和印度看成競爭者是錯誤的。兩國應思考能從對方身上學習什麼。從能源資源、大宗商品到商業、藝術、文化，兩國都有很大的合作空間。中國與印度如能在這些領域取得進展，或許能為解決兩國地緣政治分歧打下基礎。”

畢竟，中印之間的文化、政治、宗教、經濟交流源遠流長，有至少2000多年的歷史。中印在新時代聯手合作，可以為亞洲注入一股巨大的新力量。

  CHINA-INDIA: PARTNERING TO GROW

Vatsala Kamat（the columnist is a financial/business writer. At present, also is Consulting Writer for Mint, India）

Expectations were running high that, the three-day visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping to India, will flag off a new era in economic and business relations between the two countries. And it did! For, Narendra Modi, India’s newly elected Prime Minister, it is the pledged to drive infrastructure growth in the country and expand manufacturing. The timing could not have been better. Xi, who also took office last year, is faced with the challenge of a slowdown in China’s growth rate and, is committed to reform and taking Chinese expertise across borders.

For India, it is the first visit of the Chinese president in eight years and the third since independence. Coincidentally, while Xi is China’s first leader born after the 1949 revolution, Modi is India’s first Prime Minister born after independence in 1947. Both have strong political good will in their regions and world too. Both countries are faced with new economic challenges. Both need changes in the economic ethos.

MEETING OF MINDS:

The meeting culminated in both leaders voicing the need to have strong economic and cultural ties, besides secure border relations for peaceful progress. A commitment of US$ 20 billion may be less than the much-hyped expectation of US$100 billion. While this may be less than Japan’s intent to bring in US$ 33 billion, it is surely a long haul from US$ 400 million that came into India over the last 14 years.

A new paradigm is set to emerge in the Asian region. As two sizeable economies that morphed from ancient civilisations that co-existed for many centuries cooperate, it will have a bearing on economic and geopolitical issues of the region.

India and China house a third of the world’s population. More importantly, both economies play a significant role in global economics. China accounts for 16.8% of the world’s export trade (from about 1% three decades back), far greater than India is at 1.6%. Bilateral trade between China and India has risen to US$65 billion, with a significant trade deficit. The investment of US$20 billion by China into India could help trim this.

INDIA TO HARNESS CHINA’S EDGE

Indeed, China is the second largest economy after the United States of America, with scorching pace of growth for over three decades. It took a big leap ahead of India, given that it started the process of economic reform soon after Deng Xiaoping took control of his country in 1978 and, opened the gates for investment. Indian liberalization began about a decade later.

Yes, in world markets, be it leather, textiles, automobiles and auto-components, China and India compete. But, Modi’s invitation to the Chinese President apart from initiating good will and strengthening relationship with the mighty neighbor with whom there have been border skirmishes since the 1962 war, stems from the need to beef up manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.

A key reason for China’s power in world markets is that in the ‘80s, China was quick to attract foreign direct investment into capital-intensive areas like infrastructure and, harness its large workforce into mass manufacturing excellence. India, on the other hand, was a victim of its own bureaucracy in the garb of a democracy. It failed to push the cause of better infrastructure, which continues to languish at levels, barely ahead of where the British left it.

Infrastructure is the need of the hour for India. Supply constraints have driven up prices of goods and services. Manufacturing needs to be stepped up. Institutions that drive these are not nimble-footed. Decision- making at the government level and bureaucratic layers is slow. Liquidity is not easy to access and banks are wary to lend.

Modi has promised “smart citites”, “bullet trains” and “special economic zones” and “industrial parks”. China will now help to build two industrial parks- one in Gujarat for power equipment and, another in Maharashtra for auto parts.

Memorandum of understanding and cooperation pacts were signed for improving railways, allowing greater access for pharmaceutical companies into China, space exploration and even in audio-visual production. Chinese line of credit could also be accessible for Indian firms. This would be a win-win for both nations, private companies.

The key point for India is, Will Modi succeed in fuelling urban growth and export-led economy in India? Or, is it too late in the day to play catch up with, if not outpace China?

A section of analysts say that India’s base is lower and the better creation of physical assets and the younger demographics make a strong case for India’s growth bouncing back on track to growth. At present, the gap between the two countries on most social indicators, be it per capita gross domestic product (GDP), passenger cars, internet users, urban population and even child mortality, is wide as China had until few months back clocked unprecedented growth year after year.

According to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Rankings -- an indicator of how business friendly a country is -- China places 28th in the world for overall competitiveness; India ranks 71st. On infrastructure and macroeconomic environment, China ranks 46th and 10th respectively; India ranks 87th and 101st. 

Another milestone of progress shows that China added nearly four times the railway tracks in kilometres over five years to 2011 that India added in 67 years since independence. And, on the critical gross domestic product (GDP) measure, China is chugging at around 7%, whereas India buckled to below 5%.

India’s woes are not just in that the reform process started late. What led to supply constraints is, policy logjam. Money may come in as seen from the myriad of private equity, joint ventures and foreign direct investment that has fuelled growth in both the countries in the last few decades.

What India requires now, to get all the ambitious plans off the drawing board is quick and single-window clearances on land, environment and legal. Else, history may repeat in that investors and domestic corporates may lose confidence in the country’s tall promises.

WHAT CAN CHINA LOOK FOR IN INDIA?

Turn in to China. In spite of being ahead of its western neighbor, growth rate in China is threatening to slowdown. Riding on cheap labour, low cost and easy finance and quick policy decision, the name of the game in China has been numbers. But, this year, the flying dragon has lost tailwind and is struggling to reach the targeted 7.5% annual growth rate. Growth rates in industrial production, exports, oil imports, real estate prices and electricity output are showing contraction, as costs are spiraling too. This has already sent jitters through world markets, given that China’s trade is critical to world economics.

To cite a few examples, Chinese auto exports are at its worst since the 2008 global crisis, according to research analysts.  A fall in tyre production in China and rubber usage along with higher supply in the Asian belt has brought down prices of rubber in world markets too. Meanwhile, China’s policy is changing towards some sectors. The change in China’s cotton policy to support cotton growers directly instead of supporting cotton prices and piling up inventory to supply to mills, has set cotton prices yo-yoing in world market.

In its first reaction to slowdown, China’s central bank is boosting liquidity by injecting large funds into five big banks. Regulators are also cracking down on banking transactions. Further, costs are reportedly rising in China.

In such times, it makes sense for Chinese companies to look for greener investing pastures. Indo-China cooperation could aim at even combining China’s strength in computer hard ware and telecommunications, with India’s software. After all, in the 90s when Indian state-run machinery lagged behind China, in building infrastructure and physical assets, private enterprises used computer software skills and the expertise of educated English-speaking population to bring millions of jobs and dollars in, by way of software and outsourcing opportunities.

Likewise, scientific research, niche electronics and semi-conductor industries, precision instrumentation and design, health care and pharmaceuticals are areas where India has a feather in its cap over its southeast Asian brethren, including China.

India’s transparent banking system, tough capital market regulation that encourages foreign institutional investors to invest, could be learning points for China. India’s corporate governance and respect for intellectual property rights can be examples for Chinese counterparts to emulate.

XI-MODI RHETORIC

It is more imperative now than ever before that as even as the geopolitical issues gradually get ironed out, the two nations join hands to co-operate even as they compete. The leaders seem to have taken cognizance too. Xi said, “The combination of ’the world’s factory’ and ’the world’s back office’ will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market.” Modi too, carrying a similar sentiment said “whenever India and China have worked and grown together, this has also led to the development and economic prosperity of the world.”

Both nation heads subtly spoke of trying to maintain peace at the border, critical to economic progress. Cooperation pacts seem to have been signed even in areas like art and culture, cinema and exchanges between cultural institutions. Not to forget, that both countries have their respective specialization in native therapy – China in acupressure, acupuncture and taichi and India in Ayurveda and yoga.

The tie-up between banks of the two nations during Xi’s visit is an important milestone in financial relationship besides offering line of credit to grow business between the two nations.

However, there’s no doubt that on core income and economic parameters, India has a long way to go given that it’s GDP per capita of US$1,250 is way below that of China at US$6,700 and rest of the developing world, which is even higher at US$ 10,000. On one of the key manufacturing benchmarks, available data from the automobile associations across the globe suggests that India’s auto penetration is low with sales at 2.6 vehicles per 1,000 compared to China’s 16.2, Brazil’s 19.0 and South Korea’s 30.7.

That said, the Dragon (China) is losing aggression, while the Tiger is set to leap after crouching for a couple of years. But as Amartya Sen, Lamont Professor of Economics at Harvard University, USA and Nobel Economic Prize Winner pointed out years ago, “it was wrong to view China and India as competitors. They should think of what they can learn from each other. From energy resources and commodities to business, art and culture, there’s scope for the two nations to work together. Progress in these areas may be stepping stones to align geopolitical differences too.

After all, over at least twenty centuries there were cultural, political, religious and economic interactions between the two nations. The Chindia combine could work to create a new Asian juggernaut.

Ends…