Dabing Li：民主女神已是美人遲暮

【本文原載於香港《南華早報》英文版，原題“Democracy is on its last legs”，觀察者網楊晗軼譯。】

——不管是過去還是現在，民主國家都沒有兑現它們的承諾。政客們為爭取無知羣氓的選票而力爭下游，最終不可避免地造成災難性政策。

支持“民主”的抗議者們的佔領運動仍在香港繼續。目前還看不到結束的跡象。然而，在這一出浮誇的傳奇劇中，我們或許忘記了一些最基本的東西：究竟什麼是“民主”？誰應該得到民主？民主真的有用嗎？

必須承認，西方“民主”是一個極具誘惑力的命題——尤其是對於那些不通文墨、一事無成、怨氣沖天的人來説。但是，縱觀人類歷史，“民主”似乎從來沒有發揮過什麼很好的作用。

公元前五世紀，古希臘首創了“一人一票”制度。這個制度歷經變異，成為了西方世界的主流。但這是一個先天存在缺陷的制度：參與投票的羣眾通常對於票決的議題一竅不通，容易受到政治操縱。正是在民主選舉制度下，誕生了希特勒統治的德意志第三帝國。

近年來，“民主”似乎在許多其他國家的社會經濟領域屢遭失敗。2008年，全球金融危機席捲世界。這場金融危機正是發源於將民主奉為圭臬的美國。幾十年來，民主將社會權利的觀念深刻地烙印在一代又一代美國消費者頭腦中。

在民主的名義下，美國消費者們沉溺於物質享受，入不敷出地享受着虛幻的繁榮。選上台的政客們為了保持支持率而競相迎合民意，揮霍財税收入向選民提供各種各樣免費的經濟和社會福利。顯然，這樣的民主能夠幫助社會底層人士實現“美國夢”——向低收入人羣提供次級貸款，圓他們在郊區購置別墅的土豪夢。

在美國國會的鼓勵下，銀行家樂於放貸，將這些次級貸款拆分重組為資產抵押債券，並將它們銷售至全世界金融機構。由於垃圾次貸的爆炸式增長，按揭違約現象不可避免地出現，終於在2008年觸發了全球金融危機。這就是美國民主取得的成就嗎？

所有西方民主國家都像多米諾骨牌般挨個遭到重創。其中受打擊最嚴重的是希臘。長期以來，希臘的政客從國庫裏掏錢補貼福利越慷慨，便越能得到選民們的支持。國庫被掏空後，政客們就開始借債——所謂的“主權債務”。他們一遍又一遍地承諾；一次又一次地舉債；一筆又一筆地開銷。希臘人已經將這一切視作理所當然，彷彿他們有權利用別人的錢吃喝玩樂——直到有一天希臘無法償還主權債務。

接下來到了需要勒緊褲腰帶，採取緊縮政策的時候了，希臘人突然發現，原來恣意享樂的生活不是自己的權利，而是一場鏡花水月；原來別人的錢是要還、卻還不起的。他們走上雅典的街頭，去抗議，去砸玻璃，去燒汽車，去與防暴警察肉搏。希臘人以追求民主為名；以捍衞權利為名；以發泄怨氣為名，在全球媒體的注目下上演了一出鬧劇。

這就是希臘民主取得的成就。

希臘2010年騷亂

為什麼？為什麼民主失敗得如此普遍，如此狼狽？在突尼斯、埃及和利比亞，民主正在走向失敗。在菲律賓和泰國，它已經失敗。但在教育水平如此高、民主制度如此完善的美國，和民主的源頭、文明的搖籃希臘，為什麼民主也會失敗？

不幸的是，答案或許在人的天性中。或許，我們生來就配不上民主。我們所有人，從本性上説，都是自私的。我們都極容易受到操縱，尤其是有人向我們違背常理地提供免費早餐、午餐和晚餐時。

民主最基本的機制是“一人一票”。根據世界各地人口結構規律，大多數選票來自各個社會的底層。工人永遠比技術官僚的人數更多。這樣，要獲得選票，政治家們只能力爭下游。下游的選民在乎的，是他們自己。什麼社會公益，什麼投資未來，底層人士即使聽得懂，也往往聽不進去。在民意調查中和投票站前，只有他們自己感知到狹隘利益才是最重要的。所有政治家都明白這個道理。他們力爭下游，用國庫的財富賄賂羣氓。今天，所有的民主國家無一例外地墮落，都加入到這場通往深淵的競賽中來。

要搞民主，選民們首先要知道什麼是“大善”，並能理性地投出手中的選票。然而，這個前提只是烏托邦式的空想。另一個民主的烏托邦是“多數決定原則”。在現實中，非常小的少數派往往能夠對票決過程施加極不相稱的巨大影響力。

以香港為例。一個斗大的字識不了一籮筐的阿嬤，被幾個人以“民主”為名忽悠一番，居然成了反對重要基建項目的海報人物。她導致工程延誤，將給香港造成數十億元損失。這位阿嬤和更多像她一樣的人，是羣眾，是掌握着選票的羣眾。

逼停港珠澳大橋的香港阿嬤朱綺華

難道任何先進的社會能將重大事務的決策權交給這樣的人嗎？恐怕不可能吧。

在新加坡，良性的“獨裁”統治在不到50年的時間裏，使這個貧窮落後的蕞爾小國一躍進入第一世界，成為一個製造業和服務業中心，其經濟繁榮、種族和諧令世人稱羨。

在過去30年裏，中國政府獨特的協商性決策機制成功地使上億人擺脱了貧困，促生了前所未見的經濟增長和文化復興。按購買力平價計算，中國現在已經是世界第一大經濟體。

歷史似乎正在重新書寫關於民主的篇章。預兆已經出現，充滿魅惑的西方民主女神可能已是美人遲暮了。

作者簡介：出生於北京，經歷了文化大革命，曾留美學習，畢業於哈佛商學院。原在香港任管理諮詢師和投行高管。

（點擊下一頁，查看英文原文）

 

Democracy is on its last legs

——Dabing Li says now and in the past, democracies have failed to work as promised. Inevitably, they become a race to the bottom for the vote of the ignorant masses, resulting in disastrous policies

Dabing Li

The ongoing Occupy movement by pro-democracy protesters has wreaked havoc in Hong Kong. There is no end in sight. Yet, in this melodramatic saga, we may be forgetting the basics: What exactly is “democracy”? Who deserves it? Does it really work?

Western-style “democracy” is a seductive proposition, especially for those with little education and achievements but loaded with “grievances”. However, if we look through human history, it seems that this “democracy” hasn’t really worked too well.

“One man, one vote” was first instituted in Greece around the fifth century BC and now - with its many mutations - dominates the Western world. But it has inherent problems. The voting masses are often ignorant of the issues at hand and susceptible to political manipulation. Witness the ascent of Adolf Hitler, the democratically elected leader of the German Third Reich.

In recent years, “democracy” seems to have failed in many other places, both socially and economically, and often in glaring fashion. In 2008, the global financial crisis engulfed the world. It started in the US where democracy has, for decades, bred generations of consumers who have had the notion of entitlement ingrained into their minds.

In that name, they indulged themselves, lived beyond their means, and elected politicians who engaged in perpetual popularity contests by promising voters all kinds of free economic and social benefits funded by taxes and the treasury. Apparently, such democracy can help the lower ranks achieve the “American dream” - a suburban McMansion; hence, subprime mortgages to help low-income people buy one.

These subprime junk loans exploded after having been encouraged by the US Congress, extended by happy bankers, then diced, sliced and packaged into asset-backed securities, and sold to financial institutions all over the world. The inevitable mortgage defaults in 2008 triggered the global financial crisis. Was that American democracy at work?

Like falling dominoes, all Western democracies suffered. The worst hit was Greece, where, for a long time, voters kept electing those who promised the most from their national treasury. When the Greek treasury had been bled dry, politicians started to borrow - the so-called sovereign debt. They promised and promised, borrowed and borrowed, and spent and spent. Greeks began to take it for granted, as if it were their entitlement to live the high life on other people’s money - until Greece defaulted on its sovereign debt.

When the necessary belt-tightening - austerity - ensued, the Greeks suddenly found that the high life they thought was their entitlement was just a sham, financed by other people’s money, which they could not repay. They took to the streets of Athens, smashed windows, burned cars, and engaged in hand-to-hand combat with riot police, all in the glare of global media, all in the name of democracy, entitlements and grievances.

That was Greek democracy at work.

The question is why - why is democracy failing so broadly and so miserably? It is failing in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It has already failed in the Philippines and Thailand. But why the United States, where education and democratic institutions are well developed? Why Greece, the cradle of democracy and civilisation?

Unfortunately, the answer may lie in human nature. We simply may not deserve democracy; we are just not made that way. We are all, by nature, selfish. We are helplessly susceptible to manipulation, particularly to perverse promises of free breakfasts, lunches and dinners.

The most basic mechanism of democracy is “one man, one vote”. By the nature of demographics everywhere, the majority of votes are at the bottom of each society. There are always more workers than technocrats. And so, in order to get votes, politicians race to the bottom. There, the voters care about themselves. What’s good for society, for its future, even if understood, often becomes irrelevant. In opinion polls and voting booths, only their own self-perceived narrow interests count. All politicians understand this. They race to the bottom, bribing the masses with the national treasury. All modern-day democracies inevitably degenerate into this race to the bottom.

The premise for democracy is that voters know what’s good for all and will vote rationally; this premise is utopian. Another democracy utopia is “majority rule”. In reality, a tiny minority can often exert a disproportionate amount of influence.

In Hong Kong, for example, an illiterate old lady, manipulated by a few in the name of “democracy”, became the poster opposition figure against a proposed key infrastructure project. The delays that she caused will cost Hong Kong billions of dollars. She and people like her are the masses, and they have the votes.

Should any advanced society let these people decide how to arrange its vital affairs? I’m afraid not.

In Singapore, a benign dictatorship has transformed a tiny poor economy, in less than 50 years, into a first-world manufacturing and service hub, where economic prosperity and racial harmony are the envy of all.

In China, for the past 30 years, a unique system of consultative decision-making by the government has succeeded in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, and generated unprecedented economic growth and cultural revival. By purchasing power parity, China is now the world’s largest economy.

It seems that history is being rewritten about the seductive system we call democracy. The writing is on the wall; Western-style democracy may be on its last legs.

Dabing Li, a Hong Kong-based former management consultant and investment banker, was born in Beijing and lived through the Cultural Revolution. He studied in the US, and attended Harvard Business School.