布熱津斯基：太平洋憲章——大棋局的嬗變

【2017年5月27日，美國總統卡特的國家安全事務助理、美國-中國協會副主席、地緣政治專家茲比格涅夫·卡濟米爾茲·布熱津斯基，在美國弗吉尼亞州逝世，享年89歲。

布熱津斯基為中美關係的發展做出重大貢獻，支持和推動了中美建交，曾在1978、1984、1994和1997年訪問中國。其著作《大棋局》，在中國也頗有反響。

近年來，高齡的布熱津斯基依舊活躍於地緣政治界，多次在媒體上發表關於中美關係的見解。當美國輿論認為中國“民族主義”“民粹主義”高漲時，布熱津斯基表示：“民族主義是一個非常正常的現象，我們都會經歷民族主義興盛的階段……任何的摩擦都應該避免。我覺得中國政府對此有非常清醒的認識，目前和平崛起還是主調，我希望能持續下去。”“雙方的民族主義情緒會減損雙邊關係，這對兩國都不好。”

本文發表於2014年10月時任美國總統奧巴馬在北京訪問期間，在簡短的採訪中，布熱津斯基提出了中美應進一步正式簽署“太平洋憲章”的建議。他認為中美雖在民主人權等價值觀方面存在差異，但雙方都已認識到彼此唇齒相依，為全球穩定而加強合作是共同事業。這些大體上反映了布熱津斯基近年的“中美觀”，觀察者網特重刊本文，以饗讀者。】

11月12日，國家主席習近平在人民大會堂舉行歡迎儀式，歡迎美國總統奧巴馬對中國進行國事訪問。

**《世界郵報》：**不久前，你提出美國應面向中國“全新開放”，並提出中美應簽署“太平洋憲章”。你是基於怎樣的戰略推理得出這個結論的？

**布熱津斯基：**全球秩序混亂的趨勢越來越明顯，這就決定了美國越來越難以單憑自己去應付雨後春筍般出現的混亂局面。

今天，我們看到俄羅斯在歐洲獨斷專行——它吞併克里米亞，並試圖動搖烏克蘭的穩定，重新開啓了通過武力實現領土變更的封印——這是希特勒死後歐洲首次面對這樣的問題。另外，激進主義在中東地區爆炸式擴張，它已經傳播到了巴基斯坦和阿富汗，並可能進一步向東北方向的中國傳播。

今天的中國是一個大國，在經濟上已與美國平起平坐，它還是一個軍事強國。和美國一樣，國際秩序的穩定也與中國利害攸關。如果無法保證穩定，中國經濟發展這個首要任務便會遭遇風險。

因此，防止世界形勢朝暴力和混亂進一步墮落，是符合中美兩國共同利益的。

**《世界郵報》：**你的意思是否是中美應該結盟？

**布熱津斯基：**我説的既不是結盟，也不是搞一些戲劇性的聯合行動。我的意思是，全世界最重要的兩個國家，應當以負責任的方式處理對兩國利益構成威脅的事務。中美合作將向世界證明，大國不光為自身謀取利益，也會為了全球穩定而合作。

布熱津斯基

今天，我們需要中美關係更進一步，這種關係不應侷限於維護雙方具體的國家利益，而應專注於維護世界穩定，防止當前的各種矛盾進一步失控，最後發展到無可救藥的地步。中美應保障全球局勢不至於滑向混亂，消除世界公眾的疑懼。

1941年，美英兩國首腦簽署了《大西洋憲章》。在那個歷史時刻，正是它產生了這樣的影響。

**《世界郵報》：**但是，民主和人權是英國和美國共有的價值觀。中國和美國政治制度差異如此巨大，真能建立起這種夥伴關係嗎？

布熱津斯基：“憲章”這個概念，表示這是一件嚴肅的事業，而不是一串口號。是的，中美兩國的確差異巨大，但更重要的是，雙方都已認識到彼此唇齒相依。這在一定程度上將促使兩國加強合作。

比如，在我看來，中國可以在維護中東地區穩定上發揮獨特的作用。由於該地的殖民歷史，法國和英國難有作為。美國在伊拉克先發制人地發動攻擊，造成當地勢力四分五裂，嚴重削弱了美國的力量。中國的經濟、能源利益已經覆蓋中東地區，而又沒有什麼政治包袱。這樣看來，維護和鞏固當地的穩定局勢似乎與中國的利益息息相關。

**《世界郵報》：**從歷史上看，中國一直是中央王國，以朝貢體系維持對周邊地區的支配。從未曾扮演過全球性角色的中國，能否接受挑戰與美國一起扮演這樣的角色？

**布熱津斯基：**中國自身的利益已遍佈全球各地，這使得它必須接受這一挑戰。美國和中國對彼此來説如此重要：合作更緊密，兩國都會受益；任由全球秩序崩壞，兩國都將受損。

中國已認識到，現今的世界已不再有唯一的霸主來承擔維護穩定的責任。現在，我們需要對穩定做出共同的承諾。最大、最有影響力的兩個大國共同為包括歐洲、日本、印度、東盟和拉丁美洲在內的全世界建立秩序的基礎，才是合乎情理的。

所有國家都能在全球新秩序中發揮建設性作用。這個趨勢已漸趨明朗，就連日本和中國也明白了，相互維護穩定、避免腐蝕性衝突符合兩國更宏大的利益。

如果俄羅斯也能成為合作伙伴，一起塑造穩定的世界秩序，那自然最好。但現在看來，他們似已決心走狂熱的民族主義道路。

**《世界郵報》：**落實上述建議的期限是多久？

**布熱津斯基：**時不我待。過去我們總是空泛地説中美應在遙遠的未來達成合作，現在是時候拋棄這種陳詞濫調了。如果世界兩大國無法加速推進事物發展，我們都會倒黴。

（觀察者網楊晗軼譯自美國赫芬頓郵報網站11月10日文章“Brzezinski: Why We Need a U.S.-China ‘Pacific Charter’ for Global Stability”，翻頁見英文原文。）

In Beijing on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama called on China to be a “partner in underwriting the international order” instead of “undermining” it. One key American strategist, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter, is strongly promoting the idea that Obama’s notion should be pushed further and formalized into a “Pacific Charter.”

In this interview, I asked Brzezinski to flesh out his idea:

WorldPost: You have recently proposed a “new opening” to China and a “Pacific Charter” between the U.S. and China. What is the strategic reasoning behind this proposal at this time?

Zbigniew Brzezinski: It is dictated by global trends that point to more and more disorder across the world. It is increasingly difficult for the United States on its own to deal with this burgeoning chaos.

We are seeing today Russia’s self-assertion in Europe. By annexing the Crimea and seeking to destabilize the Ukraine, it has opened up once again the issue of territorial changes accomplished by force of arms -- something that has not taken place in Europe since Hitler. The Middle East is exploding with radicalization. That can spread as it already has to Pakistan and Afghanistan and further northeast -- toward China

China today is a major power, co-equal economically with the United States. It is militarily significant. And it has a major stake, just as the U.S. does, in international stability. Without stability, China’s top priority -- its economic development -- will be very much at risk.

So both countries have a stake in preventing the world situation from degenerating into violence and instability.

WorldPost: Are you suggesting an alliance?

Brzezinski: I am not talking about an alliance, or some dramatic joint action. I am talking about the two most important countries in the world addressing in a responsible fashion the issues that threaten both of our interests. Together that can give the world a sense of the big powers working together not only for their own well-being but for the sake of global stability.

What is needed today is the enhancement of the U.S.-China relationship that is not focused on the specific national interests of each, but on the larger agenda of stabilizing the world before the present conflicts spin so far out of control they can’t be contained. The world public needs some reassurance that we are not drifting into global chaos.

At a different historical moment, in 1941, that was the impact of the Atlantic Charter between the U.S. and Great Britain.

WorldPost: But Britain and the U.S. shared the same values of democracy and human rights.

Are China and America capable of that kind of partnership with such differing political systems?

Brzezinski: The idea of a “charter” is to indicate that this is a serious undertaking and not a set of slogans. Yes, the differences are great between the U.S. and China. But what is remarkable is that both realize that our degree of interdependence is such that if one suffers so does the other. That is a very powerful inducement for some degree of enhanced cooperation.

It would seem to me that China could play a unique role in stabilizing the Middle East, for example. The role of France and Great Britain has been damaged there by its history of colonialism. The U.S. has been severely weakened by the pre-emptive attack in Iraq and the consequent disintegration there. China, which has serious economic and energy interests in the Middle East but no political baggage, would seem to me to have a great stake in playing a role that reinforces stability there.

WorldPost: Historically, China has been the Middle Kingdom that dominated only its region through a system of tributaries. It has never had a global role. Is it up to the challenge of joining with the U.S. in such a role?

Brzezinski: China is obliged by its own interests -- that now span the globe because of its large economic presence -- to rise to this challenge. The fact that the U.S. and China are so important to each other makes a strong case for the proposition that we would both benefit from closer cooperation because we will both be hurt by the continuing spread of global disorder.

China recognizes the reality that there is not longer a single hegemon in the world upon which the responsibility of stability rests. Now we need a shared commitment to achieve that stability. It only makes sense that the two largest and most influential powers establish the foundation of order in which others -- Europe, Japan, India, the ASEAN nations, Latin America -- are, of course, included.

All can play a constructive role here, as is becoming clear as even Japan and China realize they have a greater interest in mutual stability instead of corrosive conflict.

It would be nice if the Russians could also be partners in shaping a new stability. But right now they seem bent on a form of national fanaticism.

WorldPost: What is the time frame of your thinking?

Brzezinski: The time is now. It is time to get past the usual empty bromides about some kind of cooperation in the distant future. If the world’s two top powers cannot manage to get a handle on unfolding events sooner rather than later, we all will suffer.