馬凱碩：亞洲黃金時代將至，誰視而不見？

未來十年，亞洲的和平與繁榮將迎來一個嶄新的黃金時代。

亞洲主要經濟體將集體告別出口導向型增長模式。所以，經濟增長的速度不太可能重回10%以上。

如果亞洲主要經濟體——尤其是中國、印度和印尼——能夠將增長速度保持在每年7%左右，這將是一項了不起的成就。幸運的是，受以下三大因素的驅使，該目標對於這些國家來説顯得觸手可及：

其中的首要因素可以歸結為令人難以置信的歷史機緣。亞洲人口最多的三個國家，即中國、印度和印尼，幾乎同時迎來了新一代具有活力、鋭意改革的領導人。未來十年，他們將引領各自國家走向大轉型。

第二大因素是，在國家發展方面，“鄧小平-李光耀共識”得到了鞏固。不久前，我們接連見證了三場意義非凡的大會：在北京召開的亞太經合組織會議，在緬甸內比都召開的東亞峯會，以及在澳大利亞布里斯班召開的G20峯會。

各方簽訂的新協議數量之多，令人驚喜。中國國家主席習近平和日本首相安倍晉三更是歷史性地握手致意（雖然此次“握手”並未“言歡”），平息了外界對中日爆發戰爭的擔憂。

這些會議之所以大獲成功，其背後的關鍵因素是什麼？簡單地説，本地區除朝鮮外，其他各國領導人之間已經建立了廣泛而深入的共識，各方一致同意把推進現代化和務實發展放到首要位置上來。

這就是為什麼東亞地區能取得成功，而中東地區則障礙重重。現代化好似一種健康的病毒，它悄無聲息地感染了整個東亞地區。正因為它潤物細無聲，所以西方媒體對此全然不察，仍在繼續預測東亞末日即將降臨。

第三大因素是亞洲中產階級人口的爆炸式增長。這個數字將從2010年的5億飆升至2020年的17.5億。跨國公司已經敏鋭地捕捉到了這一趨勢。

許多跨國公司已經走在了政府的前面，在東亞地區積極拓展。隨着國際經濟重心向亞洲轉移，新加坡有潛力成為最大的受益國。未來，悲觀的西方消費者們將難以推動全球需求，樂觀的亞洲消費者們將逐漸接棒，拉動全球需求。

但是，盲目的樂觀是愚蠢的。地緣政治的陰雲仍沒有散去。值得一提的包括以下五條：

全世界最重要的地緣政治關係，永遠都是世界頭號大國（現在的美國）和未來的世界頭號大國（現在的中國）之間的關係。

在理論上，由於中國的經濟總量（按購買力平價計算）在今年內就將超過美國，成為世界最大的經濟體，所以中美之間的敵對和對抗將在未來十年達到頂點。但中美關係竟然穩如磐石，着實令人稱奇。

習近平和奧巴馬發佈了《中美氣候變化聯合聲明》，這項了不起的協議無異於一縷陽光，穿透了本應晦暗無光的地緣政治陰雲。

以中美之間的對抗似乎將達頂點，但中美關係竟然穩如磐石

中日關係當屬今年最危險的關係。許多人曾擔心中日之間會爆發戰爭。然而，中國和日本沒有交手，而是握手了。

如果安倍先生能剋制住他的民族主義傾向，專心搞經濟建設，促進日本經濟增長，將使不安的中日關係得到控制。另一方面，不少中國領導人或許也意識到，前幾年中國過於強勢，確實把日本逼急了。

展望未來，最重要的地緣政治關係將是中國與印度——也就是未來的頭號經濟大國和二號大國——之間的關係。當莫迪成為印度總理的那一刻起，各界對他報以期許，盼其能在中印關係上取得重大突破。

但是，邊界問題仍然橫在龍象之間。習近平和莫迪將如何智慧地克服這一重障礙，全世界都拭目以待。

從邏輯上説，為求制衡中國的崛起，俄羅斯應該向歐洲和西方靠攏。但俄羅斯目前正與此背道而馳。烏克蘭危機顛覆了地緣政治的邏輯。如果西方的領導人們能像亞洲領導人們那樣務實，他們本應與俄羅斯達成某種妥協。

但是，西方還是跟過去一樣自以為是，對俄羅斯施加制裁。西方在地緣政治上的失敗恰好助力亞洲從中得益，俄羅斯與中國達成了價值4千億美元的能源協議。

最後，伊斯蘭國異軍突起，讓許多人大跌眼鏡。要不是它殘殺了無辜的西方平民，恐怕沒有人會在意它的存在。多起斬首人質事件迫使西方——尤其是美國——不得不採取行動。但伊斯蘭國是一個得到隔離的毒瘤，它不會構成重大的全球性威脅。

要理解這五大地緣政治陰雲將如何影響亞洲，請不要依賴國際主流的英美媒體。因為這些媒體的部分編輯已經困在狹隘的、意識形態化的英美思維定式裏，無法跳出。

例如，25年來，英美媒體反覆預測中國共產黨將走向崩潰。我估計未來十年，“崩潰論”還會不時見諸報端，但中共將挺過這十年。

全球迫切地需要一個權威的聲音來敍述亞洲的復興。

當不列顛帝國橫行世界的時候，《泰晤士報》是報業權威；當美利堅世紀到來時，《紐約時報》成為了報業權威。如今，隨着亞洲世紀揭開帷幕，海峽時報已做好準備成為新的報業權威。幸運的是，《海峽時報》已經擁有了一批亞洲特派記者。它已經有了產品，現在需要做的就是將亞洲新聞全新包裝，輸送向世界各地。

未來十年，東盟必將扮演重要角色。目前，認識到東盟“協商一致”文化價值的人少之又少。

更重要的是，東盟把這一文化傳播到了東亞和南亞。這就是為什麼包括美俄在內的所有地區大國都“信任”東盟能為各方交流互動提供一個可信的中立平台。

但是，要發揮領導作用，東盟必須保持組織內部的凝聚力（避免出現2012年7月金邊會議那樣的破壞東盟共識的分裂事件），確保明年推出的東盟經濟共同體獲得成功。

東盟國家，尤其是印尼，必須克服對待東盟經濟合作的糾結心態。克服這種心態唯一的途徑是運用理性。任何理性的經濟分析都將得出同樣的結論，即東盟內部任何一個單一的市場，包括印尼市場，都不足以與騰飛的中國和印度競爭。

東盟國家的企業需要更大的競技場，才能具有競爭力。所以，東盟領導人明年必須咬緊牙關，由馬來西亞牽頭，推動經濟合作再上一個新台階。

簡單地説，所有趨勢在呼喚亞洲黃金時代的到來。要把握自己的未來，亞洲人就必須相信自己，發展出嶄新的、積極的全球敍事，補充主流的西方敍事。

（馬凱碩，新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院院長。本文節選自馬凱碩於11月21日在新加坡《海峽時報》全球前景論壇上的主旨演講。觀察者網楊晗軼譯。）

A golden age looms for Asia

This is an excerpt from the keynote address by Professor Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, at yesterday’s ST Global Outlook Forum.

Asia will experience a new golden era of peace and prosperity over the next 10 years.

The export-led growth model of the past will no longer work for the major Asian economies. Hence, we are unlikely to see a return to double-digit growth.

If the major Asian economies, especially China, India and Indonesia, are able to maintain growth rates of around 7 per cent a year, this will be a major achievement. Fortunately, this is within their reach. Three factors will drive this.

The first factor is an almost unbelievable accident of history. It is truly remarkable that the three most populous Asian countries, namely China, India and Indonesia, have simultaneously put in place dynamic and reform-minded leaders who can be expected to transform their countries over the next decade.

The second factor is the consolidation of the “Deng Xiaoping-Lee Kuan Yew consensus” on national development. We have just seen three remarkable back-to-back leaders’ meetings in East Asia: Apec in Beijing, East Asia Summit in Nyapyidaw and the Group of 20 in Brisbane.

An amazing number of new agreements were signed. There was also a historic (albeit unsmiling) handshake between President Xi Jinping of China and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, laying to rest fears of a China-Japan war.

What was the key underlying factor that explains the success of these meetings? The simple answer is that, North Korea excepted, there is a remarkably wide and deep consensus among regional leaders that they should focus on modernisation and pragmatic development.

This explains why East Asia is functional while the Middle East remains dysfunctional. Our region has been infected by a silent, healthy virus of modernisation. Because it is silent, the Western media has not noticed and continues to predict doom.

The third factor is the explosion of the Asian middle-class population from 500 million in 2010 to 1.75 billion in 2020. Multinational corporations have spotted this trend.

Many of these MNCs are ahead of their governments and have stepped up their presence in the region. Singapore has the potential to be the biggest beneficiary of this big shift to Asia. Pessimistic Western consumers will not drive global demand. Instead, optimistic Asian consumers will gradually pick up global demand.

It would be foolish to pretend that all will be rosy in the region. Several geopolitical clouds will continue to affect the region. Five deserve mention.

The most important geopolitical relationship is always between the world’s No. 1 power (now the US) and the emerging No. 1, now China.

In theory, US-China relations should hit a new peak of rivalry in the next decade, because, this year, China will surpass the US and become the world’s biggest economy in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms. Curiously, the US-China relationship is remarkably stable.

Indeed, there is even some sun showing through what should be the darkest geopolitical cloud, as demonstrated by the extraordinary climate-change agreement reached between Mr Xi and US President Barack Obama.

The most dangerous relationship this year was that between China and Japan. Many feared that they would go to war. Instead, they shook hands.

If Mr Abe can restrain his nationalistic tendencies and focus on firing economic arrows to jump-start Japan’s economic growth, this troubled relationship can remain under control. Several Chinese leaders may have also realised that China went overboard in browbeating Japan in recent years.

The most important future geopolitical relationship is between the world’s next No. 1 and No. 2 economies, namely China and India. When Mr Narendra Modi became prime minister of India, there was hope of a major breakthrough.

However, the border issue continues to bedevil this relationship. The world will look upon Mr Modi and Mr Xi to wisely overcome this nagging issue.

Logically, Russia should have been drifting closer to Europe and the West to balance a rising China. Instead, the opposite has happened. The accident in Ukraine disrupted geopolitical logic. If Western leaders were as pragmatic as Asian leaders, they would have found a compromise.

Instead, the West went back to its usual self-righteous tendencies and imposed sanctions on Russia. This geopolitical loss by the West has been a gain for Asia, as seen by the US$400 billion (S$520 billion) Russia-China energy deal.

Finally, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emerged as a complete surprise. It would have been ignored if innocent Westerners had not been killed. The decapitations forced the West, especially the US, to react. However, ISIS does not pose a great global threat. It is an isolated tumour.

To understand how these five geopolitical clouds will affect Asia, please do not rely on the dominant Anglo-Saxon media. Some of their editors are trapped in a narrow and often ideological Anglo-Saxon mental universe.

For example, the Anglo-Saxon media has been predicting the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for almost 25 years. I predict that they will continue to do so in the next 10 years. I also predict that the CCP will last the next 10 years.

There is a great global demand for an authoritative voice on Asia’s resurgence.

When the British Empire reigned supreme, the Times of London served as the newspaper of record. When the American century began, the New York Times emerged as the newspaper of record. As the Asian century unfolds, The Straits Times is well poised to be the newspaper of record for the Asian century. Fortunately, The Straits Times already has a group of excellent Asian correspondents in place. It has the product. All that the ST has to do is to create a new package of news on Asia for the rest of the world.

Asean will have to play a critical role in the coming decade. Few in the world have given Asean enough credit for the culture of musyawarah and mufakat (“consultation and consensus” in Bahasa Indonesia) developed in South-east Asia.

More importantly, Asean has also infected the rest of East Asia and South Asia with a similar culture. This is why all the major regional powers, including the US and Russia, “trust” Asean to provide a credible neutral platform to enable them to engage each other.

However, to play this leadership role credibly, Asean must retain its cohesion (and avoid incidents like the breakdown in the Asean consensus in Phnom Penh in July 2012) and ensure that the Asean Economic Community (AEC) is a success after it is launched next year.

Asean countries, especially Indonesia, must overcome their schizophrenic attitude towards Asean economic cooperation. The only way to overcome this attitude is to use the force of reason. Any rational economic analysis will show that no Asean market, not even Indonesia’s, is big enough to compete with China and India if they take off.

Asean companies need a bigger playing field if they are to become competitive. Hence, next year, led by Malaysia, Asean leaders must bite the bullet and push economic cooperation to the next level.

In short, all the trends are pointing towards a new golden era for the region. To understand their own futures, the Asians must believe in themselves and develop new positive global narratives to supplement the dominant negative Western narratives.