美聯社：盧布大跌，八成俄羅斯人仍支持普京

從西方的角度看，普京當俄羅斯總統的日子應該屈指可數了：盧布貶值一半以上，俄羅斯經濟正處於危機之中，普京侵略烏克蘭使俄羅斯成為了國際社會的棄兒。

但在大多數俄羅斯人看來，普京不是造成這一系列危機原因，反而是拯救俄羅斯的希望。

盧布大跌的危機並未影響俄羅斯人對普京的支持。

從俄羅斯人的視角出發，看到的情狀與西方描繪的畫面截然不同。俄羅斯人之所以這麼想，在很大程度上是因為俄羅斯國家電視台對現實進行精心粉飾，以及克里姆林宮井然有序地解構了每一種可信的政治備選方案。

此刻，普京正在為接下來的一場萬眾矚目的電視新聞發佈會做準備。美聯社和美國國家民意研究中心於週四公佈了一項民意調查發現，約有80%俄羅斯人仍然支持普京。

但此項調查也顯示，民眾對經濟的信心正在下降。特別是莫斯科民眾已經對進口商品和境外旅遊習以為常，如今因為盧布暴跌和西方制裁的關係，切身利益受到限制。所以信心不足在俄羅斯首都顯得尤為突出

該項調查是在11月22日至12月7日間進行的，當時盧布正處於穩步下降中。但本週盧布出現災難性崩潰，可能對物價和生活水平的衝擊更加沉重。

普京要面對的問題是，他能否説服俄羅斯人接下來勒緊褲腰帶——不僅是未來幾個月，可能將持續數年。

獨立分析師瑪麗亞·利普曼説：“俄羅斯人感覺自己受到了制裁，他們彷彿是一個被圍攻的堡壘。俄羅斯電視台始終在穩定地傳播一種心態：除了普京，還能依靠誰？普京被視作俄羅斯民族的救星，我認為他本人也是這樣看待自己的。”

在週四的新聞發佈會上，普京將花三四個小時對國人的關注點一一作答。幾乎可以肯定，他將向公眾傳遞這樣的信息：一切順利、成竹在胸。

在新聞發佈會的廣告上，普京通過國家電視台向俄羅斯民眾展示出這樣的形象：他時而被索契奧運會的運動健兒們簇擁着；時而撫摸虎寶寶；時而向宇航員致以問候。他向觀眾承諾道：“我們絕對有能力靠自己做成所有事”。

該民調顯示，俄羅斯人如何看待普京，與他們如何獲取新聞資訊有關。以國家電視台作為新聞主要來源的受調查者支持普京的比例（84%），比那些通過其他來源獲取消息的人更高（73％）；而更頻繁收看新聞節目的人，對普京更加看好。

石油是俄羅斯經濟的支柱，在2000年普京當選為俄羅斯總統後，處於高位的石油價格使普京獲益不少。在過去十年中，俄羅斯人的生活水平提高之快，超過了該國現代歷史上任何一個時期。許多普通俄國人有生以來第一次有錢買車和環球旅遊。

普京對政治反對派和獨立媒體的壓制，雖飽受外界觀察家批評，但在國內被許多人默然接受。因為在經歷了上世紀90年代的大起大落後，俄羅斯大眾認為值得為經濟穩定做出妥協。

“我非常支持普京——除了他還能支持誰？”一名受訪者瓦倫蒂娜·羅舒金娜如是説。這名79歲的老人是莫斯科以南的格里亞茨鎮上的居民。“我相信這個國家正在朝着正確的方向前進，因為他重振了軍隊，使政府更加強大。別人開始有點害怕我們了。”

當被問及是否願意接受美聯社記者採訪時，包括羅舒金娜在內的許多受調查者表示同意。

隨着俄羅斯經濟受到西方制裁和油價下跌的衝擊，普京更加依賴於其敢向西方叫板的強硬領導人形象。他似乎孤注一擲，期待硬漢形象將幫助他渡過經濟難關。

到目前為止，他賭對了：根據調查顯示，總統和軍隊是俄羅斯最受信賴的機構——俄羅斯人對總統的信任率達四分之三；表示對軍隊有信心的達三分之二。

50歲的伊萬·薩萬科是南部城市斯塔夫羅波爾的一名司機，他參與了此次民調，並説：“我們的軍隊已重振雄風，這至關重要。對我們來説，軍隊是第一位的，其他東西都排在後面。我們的國家是一個強國，這對我們來説非常重要。如果我們不是強國，那就不會存在。”

受訪者中，81％的人對普京處理工作的方式表示強烈贊同或部分贊同，比2012年美聯社與德國捷孚凱消費調研公司聯合進行的調查數據高出20多個百分點。

雖然在普京統治下，俄羅斯變得更加專制，但民眾對他的支持似乎是真實的。近年來，普京的支持率出現顯著波動，這也顯示出俄羅斯人認為自己能夠在匿名調查中自由表達對總統的看法。從統計學上看，此次調查得出81％的支持率，只比俄羅斯最受尊敬的獨立民調機構列瓦達中心在同一時間段測量數據74％略高一點。

然而，許多分析者對高支持率提出質疑，認為克里姆林宮控制了信息，調查結果不見得有意義。

“宣傳活動是全方位的、有效的、壟斷性的。如果存在信息壟斷，談支持率有什麼意義？”質疑者格奧爾基·薩塔羅夫曾擔任克里姆林宮顧問，現為某研究機構領導，主要關注腐敗問題。

“你必須關注的事實不是有80％的人支持他，而是儘管存在信息壟斷，仍有15％的人不支持他，” 薩塔羅夫説。

今年三月，在普京抓住機會從烏克蘭攫取講俄語的克里米亞半島後，他的支持率一路飆升。

利普曼説：“絕大多數俄羅斯人自豪感的來源是第二次世界大戰的勝利，但那已經是70年前的事了，（在克里米亞）普京讓今天的俄羅斯人嚐到了勝利凱旋的滋味，讓我們有種重振國威的感覺。”

在烏克蘭東部，俄羅斯支持的分離主義者武裝起來反抗烏政府軍隊。他們也被俄羅斯國家電視台描繪成英雄。69％的俄羅斯受訪者表示，烏克蘭的許多或部分地方本就理當屬於俄羅斯。

但有些人，比如37歲的圖書管理員葉琳娜·舍維柳娃，則表示，雖然自己支持普京，但俄羅斯蹚烏克蘭這道渾水付出的代價恐怕太高了。

在提到克里米亞時，舍維柳娃説：“我認為，我們的生活為了它失去了很多東西。”

來自彼爾姆邊疆區北部的舍維柳娃認為，“我們確實應該收回所有這些（俄語地區），但我們也需要國內一切都好……你不可能一下子什麼好處都佔盡了。”

在俄羅斯各大城市，人們能越來越明顯地感受到經濟惡化和制裁帶來的衝擊。在莫斯科，超過六成的受訪者表示，制裁已給他們帶來了負面影響，大多數人認為他們的家庭的財務狀況比三年前更差。在其他地方，只有不到一半的人有這種感覺。

來自莫斯科的音效師、48歲的德米特里·烏留平説：“我擔心俄羅斯會失去方向。工資看來是不會漲了。事實上，恐怕它還會跌，失業率將上升，這都會影響經濟沒有保障的人，也會危及我們這些靠創意產業吃飯的人”。

2012年，普京開始了他的第三個任期，當時莫斯科曾出現一波抗議浪潮，其背後推動者正是這些創意產業人員。普京對反對派的打壓更沉重了，他專注於經營自己的核心選民：除莫斯科外的地方選民，以及那些靠國家維持生計的人們。

利普曼指出，在支持普京的大多數人眼裏，心懷不滿的莫斯科人矯情得毫無道理：“看看這些可憐的莫斯科人……天哪，他們抱怨來抱怨去，不就是為了自己不能去意大利度假，買不起帕爾瑪乾酪了嘛！”

對於經濟或普京領導的種種不滿是否會進一步醖釀發酵，利普曼説，這得看“這次衝擊傷害得有多嚴重，將持續多長時間。”

此項關於俄羅斯民意的聯合調查是由芝加哥大學國家民意研究中心主要負責的，實地考察和訪談調查是由捷孚凱俄羅斯分公司負責進行的，時間範圍為11月22日至12月7日。該調查結論是基於2008個具有全國代表性的隨機樣本得出的，樣本均為年滿18歲的俄羅斯人。

調查經費來自芝加哥大學國家民意研究中心。所有調查結果存在正負2.4個百分點的抽樣誤差。

（原文系美聯社報道，觀察者網楊晗軼譯，翻一頁看英文原文。）

By Laura Mills and Lynn Berry, Associated Press

MOSCOW (AP) -- From a Western perspective, Vladimir Putin’s days as president of Russia should be numbered: The ruble has lost more than half its value, the economy is in crisis and his aggression in Ukraine has turned the country into an international pariah.

And yet most Russians see Putin not as the cause, but as the solution.

The situation as seen from a Russian point of view is starkly different from that painted in the West, and it is driven largely by state television’s carefully constructed version of reality and the Kremlin’s methodical dismantling of every credible political alternative.

As Putin prepares to face his public in a much-anticipated televised news conference, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Thursday found that about 80 percent of Russians still support him.

But it also showed that confidence in the economy is slipping. This is particularly true in Moscow, where people have become accustomed to imported goods and foreign travel, now once again off-limits for many because of the fall of the ruble and Western sanctions over Ukraine.

The poll was conducted between Nov. 22 and Dec. 7, when the ruble was steadily declining. But this week’s catastrophic collapse is likely to have a much greater effect on consumer prices and the standard of living.

For Putin, the question is whether he will be able to convince Russians to tighten their belts, and not just for a few months but possibly for years to come.

“The Russian people have a sense that they are under sanctions, they are a fortress under siege,” said Maria Lipman, an independent analyst. “This kind of mentality is disseminated consistently and steadily by Russian television: Who else is there to rely on except Putin? Putin is seen as the savior of the nation, and I think he sees himself in this fashion.”

Putin will address his countrymen’s concerns over the course of three or four hours at Thursday’s news conference. He seems all but certain to send the message that he is in charge and all is fine.

An advertisement for the news conference running on state television shows Putin surrounded by Sochi Olympic athletes, petting a baby tiger and greeting cosmonauts. “We are absolutely capable of doing everything ourselves,” he promises the audience.

How Russians view Putin is associated with how they get their news, the poll showed. Those who identified state television as their main source of news are more likely to approve of Putin (84 percent) than those who have other sources (73 percent), while those who tune into the news often also have a more favorable opinion of him.

After becoming president in 2000, Putin benefited from high prices for oil, the mainstay of Russia’s economy. In the past decade, Russians saw their living standards rise faster than at any other point in modern history, transforming many average citizens into car owners and globe-trotters for the first time ever.

The suppression of opposition politicians and independent media, widely criticized by outside observers, was tacitly accepted by many as a compromise worth making for economic stability after the roller coaster years of the 1990s.

“I very much support Putin — who else is there to support?” said Valentina Roshupkina, a 79-year-old resident of Gryaz, a town several hours’ drive south of Moscow. “The country is moving in the right direction, I believe, because he lifted up the army, he made the government stronger. People started to be a little bit afraid of us.”

Poll respondents were asked whether they would be willing to speak with an AP reporter, and Roshupkina was among the many who agreed.

With the Russian economy buffeted by Western sanctions and the fall in oil prices, Putin has relied even more on his image as a tough leader capable of standing up to the West. He appears to be betting that this will help him weather the economic storm.

So far he’s been right: The presidency and the military are the country’s most trusted institutions, according to the poll, with three out of four Russians saying they trust the presidency and two out of three expressing faith in the military.

“We’ve revived the army and that’s very important,” said Ivan Savenko, a 50-year-old driver in the southern city of Stavropol who also took part in the poll. “For us, the most important thing is the army and then everything else. It’s important for us that our country is a power. If we are not a power, we do not exist.”

Of those surveyed, 81 percent said they strongly or somewhat approve of the way Putin is handling his job, a dramatic increase of more than 20 percentage points from an AP-GfK poll conducted in 2012.

While Russia has become more authoritarian under Putin, the support for him appears genuine. The significant fluctuation in Putin’s ratings in recent years also indicates that Russians feel able to respond freely in anonymous surveys about their views on the president. The 81 percent approval rating is only slightly higher statistically than the 74 percent measured during the same time period by the Levada Center, Russia’s most respected independent pollster.

Many analysts question, however, whether the high ratings have any significance, given the Kremlin’s control over information.

“There is a total, effective, monopolistic propaganda campaign, and if there is an information monopoly, how can you talk about ratings?” said Georgy Satarov, a former Kremlin adviser who heads a research institute that studies corruption.

“The thing you have to pay attention to is not the fact that 80 percent support him, but that despite that information monopoly 15 percent don’t support him,” he said.

Support for Putin soared after he moved to seize the Russian-speaking Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in March.

“A source of pride for the overwhelming majority of Russians is the victory of World War II, but that was already 70 years ago,” Lipman said. “(In Crimea) Putin gave the sense that we are victorious and triumphant and resurgent today.”

The Russia-backed separatists who took up arms against government troops in eastern Ukraine also have been portrayed as heroes on state television. Of the Russians polled, 69 percent said that many or some parts of Ukraine rightfully belong to Russia.

But some, like 37-year-old librarian Yelena Shevilyova, said that although she approves of Putin, she believes Russia’s involvement in Ukraine may have come at too high a cost.

“I think we lost a lot in our lives because of this,” said Shevilyova, another poll participant, referring to Crimea.

“I think that it is right to bring all of these (Russian-speaking regions) back, but we need everything to be good here too. … You can’t have everything at once,” she said, speaking from the far northern region of Perm.

Growing worries about a worsening economy and the impact of sanctions are more keenly felt in major cities. In Moscow, more than 6 in 10 said they had been negatively affected by the sanctions and most said their family’s finances were worse than three years ago. Less than half felt that way elsewhere.

“I am afraid that Russia isn’t going anywhere,” said Dmitry Uryupin, 48, a sound director in a small production firm in Moscow who was among those surveyed. “It’s unlikely that wages will be raised. In fact, it’s quite likely the opposite will happen, unemployment will rise and it will all affect the most economically insecure people as well as us, the creative class.”

After Putin was inaugurated for a third term in 2012 after a wave of protests in Moscow driven by the creative class, he clamped down even harder on the opposition and focused on his core electorate: people in the provinces and those more dependent on the state for their income.

The disgruntled in Moscow have proved easy to discredit in the eyes of what is known as the Putin majority: “Look at these poor Muscovites. … Oh my God, they complain because they cannot go to Italy on vacation and they can no longer afford to buy Parmesan cheese!” Lipman said.

Whether discontent not just with the economy but with Putin’s leadership will grow, Lipman said, depends on “how badly this will hurt, and for how long.”

The AP-NORC Center poll of Russia was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with fieldwork for the in-person survey by GfK Russia from Nov. 22-Dec. 7. It is based on 2,008 in-person interviews with a nationally representative random sample of Russians age 18 and older.

Funding for the survey came from NORC at the University of Chicago.

Results for all adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.