莫漢·古魯斯瓦米：要啥高鐵，先升級眼下的鐵路系統吧

【12月中旬，日本首相安倍訪印，拿下印度首個高鐵訂單。上台來一直積極搞建設的莫迪甚至表示，希望“這項工程將在印度鐵路系統掀起一場革命，將加快印度走向未來的進程。”然而看看眼下印度的鐵路系統吧：龐大、朽舊、殘破，印度鐵路系統幾乎不賺錢，自我維持都難，更談不上用於現代化改造和提升安全水準的新增投資了。相比這些，印度真的需要一條高鐵嗎？

12月17日，BBC網站發表印度著名經濟和政治評論家莫漢·古魯斯瓦米（Mohan Guruswamy）的評論文章，題為《印度需要高鐵嗎？》。微信公眾號“毛四維的印度觀察”（maosiwei_china）全文翻譯，供讀者參考。】

上週，印度總理納蘭德拉·莫迪的內閣批准了一項高鐵計劃，造價147億美元，全長650公里，連接印度西部城市孟買和艾哈邁達巴德，旅行時間將由8小時縮短至2小時。

莫迪先生説：“這項工程將在印度鐵路系統掀起一場革命，將加快印度走向未來的進程。這將成為印度經濟轉變的一個引擎。”

但會是這樣嗎？

的確，印人黨（BJP）在2014年4月的競選宣言中許諾要興建5,846公里的“高鐵網”，以連接德里、金奈、加爾各答和孟買。有意思是的，這個許諾並不包括莫迪先生的家鄉古吉拉特邦的首府艾哈邁達巴德。

印度鐵路的殘破是出了名的

朽舊的基礎設施

印度鐵路是世界上第三大鐵路系統。1853年4月16日，第一列旅客列車（14節車廂，載客約400人）從孟買站開出，距今已有年頭了。

印度鐵路恰是這個國家龐大、朽舊、殘破的基礎設施的典型寫照。

從根上説，印度鐵路系統幾乎不賺錢，自我維持都難，更談不上用於現代化改造和提升安全水準的新增投資了。

資金短缺主要由於客運長年虧損，去年就虧損50億美元。而整個鐵路系統的盈餘僅為1.15億美元。

鐵路上層管理人員經常提醒存在危機。

一位高官説，“説到底，這個組織的運行在於是否盈利。除非我們能控制支出，可持續地增加收入，否則，這個組織的生存就是個問題。”

但鐵路系統每年依靠政府大筆資金來維持運轉，不斷推後所需的重要投資。

比如，增補與安全相關的崗位，包括軌道維護工和信號管理工，這樣重要的決定也一拖再拖。

其結果是鐵路事故和死亡的數字不斷增加。

自2000年以來共發生89起重大事故，其中幾乎三分之二是2010年以來發生的。

據估計，全國每年因穿越軌道而死亡的人數幾乎為1.5萬人，僅繁忙的孟買郊區鐵路系統就高達6,000人。

挑戰

根據政府統計，去年全國共發生28,360起鐵路事故，造成2.5萬多人死亡，3,882人受傷。

挑戰已存在多年。

2012年，一個政府委員會説，軌道和橋樑的狀況堪憂，並提出以下幾項建議：

對現有1.9萬公里的鐵路進行現代化改造，這相當於整個鐵路網的40%，全部運輸量的80%；

消除平面交叉路口，沿路建圍欄。通過建高架和地下通道以消除平面路口；

對11,250座橋樑進行加固，以滿足列車重載高速通過的要求，並指出，13.1萬座鐵路橋中有四分之一橋齡在百年以上；

在主要路段全部實行軌道的機械養護，提高鋪軌和維護的水準。

為此需要1,300億美元的預算。但無論是政府還是鐵路系統都無力湊起哪怕是個零頭。

難道不應該專注於對整個系統進行現代化升級改造？

因此，問題必然是，連接孟買和艾哈邁達巴德的高鐵能解決任何這些問題嗎？

表面上看，日本報價非常有吸引力。

日本將提供孟買-艾哈邁達巴德高鐵造價的80%，其條件是印度從日本公司購買30%的設備，包括車廂和機車。在今後，70-80%的設備可以在印度生產。

消息來源説，日本政府提供低價貸款，技術支持，並將推動一定年限裏在印本地生產和技術轉讓。這些條件不可謂不優惠。

問題

但問題揮之不去。

這是否就是最具有競爭力的報價？政府是否考慮並邀請過其他的競標者？日本人將從這個項目中獲取多少？

競標的目的就是為了免除這些問題。但應有的步驟被繞過了。

最後，一個無法迴避的大問題是，如果同樣的投資用於整個鐵路系統的升級改造，是否將比用於一個高造價項目在經濟上更合算？

印度的勞動大軍每個月要增加100萬年輕人。與單個資本和進口密集型的項目相比，對整個系統進行改造將能創造多得多的新工作崗位，這應該是沒有爭論的。

那麼，建高鐵符合莫迪總理所希望的“將成為印度經濟轉變的一個引擎”？

印度鐵路系統統計：

●每天運行1.9萬趟列車，其中1.2萬為旅客列車，7,000為貨運列車。

●每天運送2,300萬旅客。

●每天運輸265萬噸貨物。

●年收入約200億美元。

●擁有7,083個火車站，131,205座鐵路橋。

●擁有51,030節旅客車廂，219,931節貨車車皮。

●僱員總數達136萬人。

（翻頁查看英文全文）

Viewpoint:Does India need bullet trains?

17 December 2015

From the section India

Indiahas agreed to buy a high-speed bullet train from Japan, in an attempt totransform its creaking rail system. Mohan Guruswamy wonders whether it makessense.

Last week Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi’s cabinet cleared a $14.7bn (£9.6bn), 650km (403 miles) long bullet trainsystem linking the western Indian cities of Mumbai and Ahmedabad, which willcut travel time on the route from eight hours to two.

“This enterprise will launch arevolution in Indian railways and speed up India’s journey into the future. Itwill become an engine of economic transformation in India,” Mr Modi said.

But will it?

To be sure the BJP’s election manifestoreleased in April 2014 promised a 5,846km (3632 miles) “high speed trainnetwork (bullet train)” linking Delhi, Chennai (Madras), Kolkata(Calcutta) and Mumbai. Interestingly, it didn’t include Ahmedabad, the capitalof Mr Modi’s native state, Gujarat.

Creakyinfrastructure

Indian Railways is the third largestrailway network in the world. It has come a long way since its first passengertrain service began on 16th April 1853, when 14 carriages carrying about 400guests left Bori Bunder in Mumbai.

More than anything, the railways typifiesthe vast, creaking and dilapidated nature of the country’s infrastructure.

At the root of this is that the railwayshardly earns enough to pay for itself, let alone invest in modernisation andsafety.

It is cash strapped mainly due to therecurring losses - last year it lost $5bn - in the passenger segment of itsoperations. The network has surplus cash of only $115m.

Its top managers have frequently warnedabout the crisis.

A top official said: ‘In the finalanalysis, the performance of the organisation would be just at the bottom lineand unless we are in a position to control the expenditure and increase theearnings on a sustained basis, survival for the organisation becomes a verydifficult proposition."

But the railways get by every year withhuge dollops of government funding and increasingly by postponing vitalinvestments.

For instance important decisions such asthe filling of tens of thousands of safety-related posts, including trackmaintenance and signalling workers, keep getting postponed.

The consequences of this are seen in theincreasing number of railways related accidents and deaths.

Since 2000 there have been 89 majoraccidents - almost two thirds of them since 2010.

It is estimated is that almost 15,000people die crossing the tracks every year - some 6,000 on the busy Mumbaisuburban network alone.

Challenge

Last year, according to the government,more than 25,000 people died and 3,882 were injured in 28,360 railway accidentsacross the country.

The challenge has been clear for manyyears.

In 2012 a government committee said thecondition of the tracks and bridges was a cause of concern and made severalrecommendations:

●Modernise 19,000km (11,806 miles) ofexisting tracks comprising nearly 40% of the total network and carrying about80% of the traffic.

●Eliminate level crossings and provide fencingalongside tracks. To eliminate level crossings by building rail over and underbridges.

●Strengthen 11,250 bridges to sustain higher loads athigher speeds, noting that about a quarter of out of 131,000 bridges are over100 years old.

●Provide 100% mechanised track maintenance on the mainroutes to provide for superior quality of track laying and maintenance.

But neither the railways nor the governmenthas so far been able to rustle up even a fraction of the $130bn outlay forthis.

Shouldn’t the focus be on modernising andupgrading the entire system?

The question therefore must be, how does abullet train joining Mumbai and Ahmedabad address any of these urgent needs?

On the face of it the Japanese offer isvery attractive.

Japan has offered to meet 80% of theMumbai-Ahmedabad project cost, on the condition that India buys 30% of its equipmentincluding coaches and locomotives from Japanese firms. In the coming years, upto 70-80% of the components could be manufactured in India.

The Japanese government has offered cheaploans, technical support and is willing to drive the local manufacturing andtechnology transfer initiative within a specified period, said sources. Theseterms cannot be scoffed at.

Questions

But questions will persist.

Can this be the most competitive offer? Didthe government even consider or invite other offers? How much are the Japanesegoing to make out of this?

The purpose of competitive offers is toeliminate all these. But this due process was given a go by.

Finally, the big question that will not goaway is whether the same investment on upgrading the entire railway networkwould be more economically beneficial than a single high cost project?

India adds a million young people to itswork force every month. There is little disagreement that revamping the entirenetwork would entail the creation of many more new jobs than a single capitaland import intensive project.

How does this tie in with Prime MinisterModi’s hope that “it will become an engine of economic transformation inIndia?”

Mohan Guruswamy is an economic andpolitical analyst

Indian Railways

●Operates 19,000 trains every day,comprising 12,000 passenger trains and 7,000 freight trains

●Transports 23 million passengers every day

●Carries 2.65 million tonnes of freight every day

●Earns about $20bn annually

●Owns 7,083 railway stations and 131,205 railwaybridges

●Runs 51,030 passenger coaches and 219,931 freight cars

●Employs 1.36 million people.