比爾·蓋茨：社會主義才能救地球，靠私企沒戲

去年年底，億萬富翁比爾·蓋茨在接受《大西洋月刊》採訪時宣佈，他計劃在綠色能源領域投資20億美元。此外，他還呼籲私有經濟領域的其他億萬富翁加入這個行列，幫助美國在2050年以前終結使用化石燃料的歷史。但同時蓋茨也坦率承認，私營部門過於自私低效，若沒有政府研發的幫助，不可能獨立應對氣候變化帶來的挑戰。

“這不是個賺錢的領域。即使你找到了新能源，並將其成本降到跟今天的化石燃料一樣，而且不排放二氧化碳，它也難以與傳統能源競爭。因為後者經過實踐反覆驗證，應用規模大得不可思議，在行業監管面前輕車熟路。相比之下，新能源有太大的不確定性，”蓋茨説：“如果不徵收高額碳排放税，便無法形成激勵機制，促使創新者或廠方轉型使用新能源。”

蓋茨接下來説了其他億萬富翁們不敢説的話，甚至顯得有些“左傾”：政府研發的作用和效率，遠比私營部門更高。

“自二戰以來，美國政府主導的研發幾乎定義了所有領域的最先進水平，”蓋茨説：“而私營部門則普遍顯得無能。”

比爾·蓋茨以795億美元淨資產，繼續領跑福布斯富豪榜

蓋茨告訴《大西洋月刊》：“剛準備投資新能源的時候，我腦子裏想的是，‘能源部研發經費花的合理嗎？’我擔心的是：‘如果我呼籲給能源部增加一倍的預算，結果他們花的錢沒有體現價值，那怎麼辦？’但在深入調查後我發現，國防高等研究計劃署把經費分配得非常好，用於基礎科學研究的錢也花在了刀刃上。這些研究中心成就卓越，政府應該增設一倍這樣的中心，撥給他們四倍的錢。”

比爾·蓋茨為了支持公共部門，拿互聯網的成功作為例子：

“數字技術領域比較難回到政府主導研發的路子上去，因為現在大多數研發已轉移到私營部門。但最初，互聯網是政府研究項目的產物，集成電路工廠也是政府搞的。直至今天，政府還是會出資資助一些尖端領域科研，並撥款確保高校有良好的知識基礎和人才儲備，保持科技領先地位。因此我認為，美國政府在支持研發上做得非常好。”

比爾·蓋茨口中“成就卓越”的研究中心，是美國國家科學基金會出資建設的可再生能源求精中心（Center of Excellence in Renewable Energy）。2014年，美國國家科學基金會運營資金約71億美元，聯邦政府資金有1/4來自這裏，它為超過2000所高校學府、中小學、非營利和公司企業的研究項目提供資助。受該基金會資助的研究項目產生了超過200位諾貝爾獎獲得者，僅在過去的5年中就產生了26位。基金會每年都收到超過40000份研究計劃書，但只能為其中約11000個項目提供經費。比爾·蓋茨希望大幅提升這筆資金的總額。

“我希望政府撥給基礎研究的經費能提升到三倍於目前的水平，即每年180億美元，”蓋茨説。“作為政府預算的一部分，這算不上什麼天文數……不是拿不出這筆錢。”

各國的經驗表明，美國要成為綠色能源的領導者，無需重複發展互聯網的老路，完全可以向奉行社會主義政策的國家——比如德國和中國——學習。比爾·蓋茨説，如果世界大國定好標準，其他國家將紛紛效仿。

“只有富國才能解決氣候問題，”蓋茨説。“中國、美國和歐洲必須解決二氧化碳排放問題，希望它們在這個過程中，能大大降低新能源成本，便於在全世界範圍內普及。”

今年七月，德國創造了一項新紀錄，全國發電量的78%來自可再生能源，打破了2014年5月74%的紀錄。德國電力需求總量為61.1千兆瓦，其中利用風能和太陽能發電40.65千兆瓦，生物質發電4.85千兆瓦，水力發電2.4千兆瓦，綠色能源發電量共計47.9千兆瓦。在過去的一年裏，德國的二氧化碳排放量減少了4.3%。這意味着，德國温室氣體排放量達到自1990以來的最低點。

但要論綠色能源投資總量，中國以800億美元投資總額，超過美國（340億美元）和歐洲（460億美元）之和。如今，中國的投資已經開始產生紅利。雖然煤炭仍然是中國最大的電力來源，但中國計劃把化石燃料使用高峯控制在2030年，此後將逐步減少。另外，中國的太陽能發電量超過了其他所有國家的總和。

在2000年至2012年之間，中國的太陽能發電量急劇增加，從3兆瓦躍升至21000兆瓦。但在2014年，中國太陽能發電量就較前一年增長67%，當年二氧化碳排放量減少1%，預計在未來幾年內將進一步下降。

2014年中國風力發電量較上一年增加16%，為1.1億個中國家庭供能，這個數字比美國所有核電供能家庭加在一起還多，此外中國還有77千兆瓦的風電基地正在建設中。中國目前的綠色能源發電量達100千兆瓦，預計到2020年將倍增至200千兆瓦。

比爾·蓋茨希望美國成為綠色能源領域下一個的領跑者，希望美國認真對待綠色能源投資，並認為公共部門能夠發揮重要作用，防止全球氣温升高超過2°C。

比爾·蓋茨説：“我不覺得絕望，因為它事關美國的創新、就業、領導地位，何況我們已經有了非常非常好的榜樣。”

（翻頁閲讀英文原文）

In a recent interview with The Atlantic, billionaire tech magnate Bill Gates announced his game plan to spend $2 billion of his own wealth on green energy investments, and called on his fellow private sector billionaires to help make the U.S. fossil-free by 2050. But in doing so, Gates admitted that the private sector is too selfish and inefficient to do the work on its own, and that mitigating climate change would be impossible without the help of government research and development.

“There’s no fortune to be made. Even if you have a new energy source that costs the same as today’s and emits no CO2, it will be uncertain compared with what’s tried-and-true and already operating at unbelievable scale and has gotten through all the regulatory problems,” Gates said. “Without a substantial carbon tax, there’s no incentive for innovators or plant buyers to switch.”

Gates even tacked to the left and uttered words that few other billionaire investors would dare to say: government R&D is far more effective and efficient than anything the private sector could do.

“Since World War II, U.S.-government R&D has defined the state of the art in almost every area,” Gates said. “The private sector is in general inept.”

“When I first got into this I thought, ‘How well does the Department of Energy spend its R&D budget?’ And I was worried: ‘Gosh, if I’m going to be saying it should double its budget, if it turns out it’s not very well spent, how am I going to feel about that?’” Gates told The Atlantic. “But as I’ve really dug into it, the DARPA money is very well spent, and the basic-science money is very well spent. The government has these ‘Centers of Excellence.’ They should have twice as many of those things, and those things should get about four times as much money as they do.”

In making his case for public sector excellence, the Microsoft founder mentioned the success of the internet:

“In the case of the digital technologies, the path back to government R&D is a bit more complex, because nowadays most of the R&D has moved to the private sector. But the original Internet comes from the government, the original chip-foundry stuff comes from the government—and even today there’s some government money taking on some of the more advanced things and making sure the universities have the knowledge base that maintains that lead. So I’d say the overall record for the United States on government R&D is very, very good.”

The ‘Centers for Excellence’ program Bill Gates mentioned is the Center for Excellence in Renewable Energy (CERE), which is funded in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF, which operated with roughly $7.1 billion in 2014, is the source of one-fourth of federal funding for research projects at over 2,000 colleges, universities, K-12 schools, nonprofits, and businesses.  The NSF has even funded research by over 200 Nobel laureates, including 26 in just the last 5 years alone. The NSF receives more than 40,000 proposals each year, but only gets to fund about 11,000 of them. Bill Gates wants this funding to be dramatically increased.

“I would love to see a tripling, to $18 billion a year from the U.S. government to fund basic research alone,” Gates said. “Now, as a percentage of the government budget, that’s not gigantic… This is not an unachievable amount of money.”

As evidence around the world shows, the U.S. doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel to be a green energy juggernaut — it can simply look to currently-existing examples in countries with socialist policies — like Germany and China, for instance — on how to become a leader in green energy. And according to Bill Gates, the rest of the world will follow the lead if the biggest countries set the bar.

“The climate problem has to be solved in the rich countries,” Gates said. “China and the U.S. and Europe have to solve CO2 emissions, and when they do, hopefully they’ll make it cheap enough for everyone else.”

This past July, Germany set a new record by generating 78 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, beating its previous record of 74 percent in May of 2014. Germany generated 40.65 gigawatts from wind and solar energy, 4.85 gigawatts from biomass, and 2.4 gigawatts from hydropower, for a total of 47.9 gigawatts of green energy when total electricity demand was at 61.1 gigawatts. Over the past year, Germany decreased its CO2 output by 4.3 percent. This means greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are at their lowest point since 1990.

But in terms of raw investment, China’s $80 billion green energy investment is more than both the U.S. ($34 billion) and Europe ($46 billion), combined. And those investments are already paying dividends. While coal is still China’s biggest source of electricity, the world’s biggest polluter aims to have its use of fossil fuels peak in 2030, and trend downward after that. Additionally, China’s solar production outpaces all other countries combined.

Between 2000 and 2012, China’s solar energy output increased dramatically from 3 megawatts to 21,000 megawatts. And its solar output increased by 67 percent between 2013 and 2014 alone. In 2014, China actually managed to decrease its CO2 emissions by 1 percent, with further reductions expected in the coming years.

China also powers more homes with wind energy than every nuclear power plant in the U.S. put together. China’s wind output provided electricity to 110 million homes in 2014, as its wind farms generated 16 percent more power than in 2013, and 77 gigawatts of additional wind power are currently under construction. China’s energy grid is currently powered by 100 gigawatts of green energy, and aims to double green energy output to 200 gigawatts by 2020.

Bill Gates wants the U.S. to be an additional green energy leader, and expresses hope that there may still be enough time for the U.S. to take green energy investment seriously, and that the public sector can be instrumental in preventing a 2-degree increase in global temperatures.

“I don’t think it’s hopeless, because it’s about American innovation, American jobs, American leadership, and there are examples where this has gone very, very well,” Gates said.

（觀察者網楊晗軼譯自Axis of Logic）

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