美國倒行逆施，世界怎麼辦？_風聞

7月6日，太陽照樣升起，特朗普政府針對中國價值340億美元商品加徵25%關税的決定正式生效，而中國“採取數量型和質量型在內的綜合措施對美進行反制”的決定接踵而至，中美貿易戰正式打響。

The Sino-US trade war officially started on July 6 as the Trump administration’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on goods from China worth 34 billion dollars came into force, followed by the Chinese government’s announcement that it would “counter against the United States through comprehensive measures of quantity and quality.”

三個多月裏三次密集磋商，還是沒能制止這場經濟戰爭的爆發，這説明，事情超出了常理的範圍。

The failure to stop the outbreak after three intensive consultations in more than three months shows that things are beyond the scope of common sense. 

常理並不複雜。貿易戰沒有贏家，想要通過打擊他國改善自身的貿易狀況的企圖註定失敗，這一點雙方都明白。向別人開火，也是向自己開火，還是向全世界開火，雙方也明白。一國的保護主義、單邊主義政策是落後、過時、低效的倒行逆施，對全球經貿環境構成了嚴重挑戰，這些都明白。

Both sides are clear that there is no winner in the trade war, and any attempt to improve the trade situation by economically sanctioning other countries is doomed to fail. Further, any country opening fire on other countries is also firing at itself and at the world, and protectionism and unilateralism are outdated as well as inefficient, and pose a serious challenge to the global economic and trade environment.

開戰前的最後一刻，所有的常理都已經擺明了，重要的道理都説了很多遍了，但特朗普政府就是不聽，執意要開打。

那麼是不是説特朗普政府就是沒有理智的瘋子、不知好歹的巨嬰、完全不可理喻呢？

But Trump is determined to start a trade war. Does it mean that the president is a lunatic or a giant baby who is completely unreasonable?

雖然很多人都這麼認為，但其實也不是。事到如今，很多人也都看明白了，以特朗普為首的一個小集團，另有他們的一套盤算，超出普通常理之外的一套謀劃。而為了他們心目中的特殊目的，他們不惜摧毀全球經貿體系，甚至也不惜損害美國自身的利益。

So far, the majority of people have understood that a small group headed by Trump has made sophisticated calculations. In order to realize its goals, this small group has no hesitation in ignoring the global economic and trade system, even at the cost of the United States self-interest.

有評論認為，真正想和中國打貿易戰的，其實只有三個人——“民粹總統”特朗普、“貿易沙皇”萊特希澤和“中國威脅論”炮製者納瓦羅。很多奇怪的理念和謀劃，都只在這個“鐵三角”當中分享，並不代表其他人的意見，更不代表美國的整體利益。

Some commentators believe that there are only three people who really intend to trigger a trade war with China – “populist president” Trump, “trade tsar” Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro. Many strange ideas and plans are shared only among this “iron triangle.” They do not represent the opinions of others, nor do they represent the overall interests of the US.

這種情況，對於世界大多數國家匪夷所思，但在美國這個國家，卻司空見慣。回想當年的小布什政府，本質上也是一個由“戰爭總統”小布什和副總統切尼、國防部長拉姆斯菲爾德兩個“家丁”組成的“鐵三角”。與現在的情況類似，他們當時也是為了他們心目中某個特殊目的，不惜摧毀全球政治秩序，甚至也不惜損害美國自身的利益。

This situation seems ridiculous to most countries, but is commonplace in America. For example, the Bush administration was essentially an “iron triangle” composed of “war president” Bush, former vice president Richard Cheney and former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld. Similar to the current situation, the triangle headed by Bush also united for a special purpose. They did not hesitate to destroy the global political order, and even cost the US interest itself.

看清這一點，也就明白了7月6日這一天的意義：那個被小集團劫持的、週期性發作的美國又來了，其行為表現就是要一意孤行、倒行逆施，就是要與全世界為敵。

Seeing this clearly, we can understand what July 6 means for real: the United States, which is hijacked by a small group, has come back. It intends to act in its own way and make the whole world its enemy. 

整個世界被拖入衰退、拖入危機甚至拖入全面對抗，它滿不在乎，在所不辭。

The world was dragged into recession and crisis and even dragged into a full-scale confrontation. But the US doesn’t care at all and spares no effort to do so.

那麼，接下來的問題就是：世界怎麼辦？

Here is the question: What should the world do?

從當前的形勢看，世界上各大經濟體與美國都有衝突，但相互之間也矛盾重重，不太可能採取聯合的反制行動。而中國，作為為全球經濟增長做出了三分之一貢獻的主要發動機，實際上獨自承受着更大的壓力，也不得不肩負更大的責任。

From the current situation, the major economies in the world have conflicts with the United States; meanwhile, among themselves, there is not always a harmony either. It is unlikely that they will take joint counteraction. China, which has contributed to one-third of the global economic growth, bears greater pressure on its own and has to shoulder greater responsibility.        

中國多年以來始終堅持擴大開放、合作共贏的原則。就在貿易戰爆發前夕，又公佈了新版的“負面清單”，在金融、基礎設施、交通運輸、文化、汽車、船舶、飛機、農業、能源、資源等多個領域推出了開放的舉措，限制措施縮減了近四分之一。

China has always adhered to the principle of opening up to the outside world and win-win cooperation over the years. Before the outbreak of trade war, China released a new version of the “negative list” and launched a series of measures to deepen the opening-up policy in many fields, such as finance, infrastructure, transportation, culture, automobile, ship, aircraft, agriculture, energy and resources, etc. The restrictions were reduced by nearly 1/4.  

這個姿態表明，中國針對美國的貿易戰反制措施，絕不意味着中國也將像美國一樣，退回保護主義和單邊主義路線上，恰恰相反，中國還會繼續捍衞全球自由貿易和多邊體制，推動全球貿易的健康平穩發展。

This move shows that China’s counter measures against the US trade war will never go back to the protectionism and unilateralism as the US did. On the contrary, China will continue to defend the global free trade and multilateral system and promote the stable development of global trade.

但毫無疑問，也不可能指望中國會為美國的單邊主義惡行造成的嚴重後果付出代價。美國既然不顧一切地發起了這場貿易戰，由此導致的全部後果，也都要由美國來負責。

Do not count on China to pay for the severe consequences resulted from the unilateralism of the United States. That is without question. Since Uncle Sam launched this reckless trade war, he should be responsible for all the consequences.

至於世界上其他主要經濟體，眼下也是兩種選擇：或者追隨特朗普小集團，放棄責任和義務，向保護主義和單邊主義後退；或者以中國為榜樣，迎難而上，繼續捍衞全球自由貿易和多邊體制。

As for the other major economies in the world, there are two options at the moment: following Trump’s small group, abandoning their responsibilities and obligations, returning to protectionism and unilateralism, or taking China as an example to continue to defend the free trade and multilateral system.

兩種選擇最終的結果各是什麼，其實也不難計算。小集團代表了什麼，負責任大國又代表了什麼，道理也很明顯。

7月6日，中美貿易戰炮聲已響，整個世界經濟的前途命運，就掌握在世界各國的抉擇之中。

It’s not difficult to calculate the results of the two options. And it’s easy to see what the small group and the responsible country represent.

The first shot was fired in the China-US trade war on July 6. The destiny of the world economy is determined by the choice of the countries around the globe.

（對外文章，首發於央視CGTN網站）