為什麼要跟隨納瓦羅的致命誤讀？_風聞

（對外文章，首發於CGTN）

Death By Misreading of China

中美貿易戰開戰，並有迅速升級的趨勢，不少的評論認為，這是在按彼得·納瓦羅《致命中國》一書中的腳本進行。這很危險。

The Sino-US trade war has started and things are escalating fast. Many commentators believe that the war is developing in accordance with the script of “Death by China” by one of US President Donald Trump’s top advisors Peter Navarro.

該書寫於8年前，當時不過是美國學術界裏那種為博出位而語不驚人死不休的無數出版物之一。作為一個學術成就平平的經濟學家和從政經歷慘淡的政治人士，此書在他62歲那年出版，差不多就是最後一拼了。

The book was written eight years ago, and it was one of the countless publications in the American academic system that wanted to attract readers’ eyes by exaggerated words. As an economist with mediocre academic achievements and a politician with cheerless experiences, Navarro published this book at the age of 62.

書中到處可見的軍事化語言、危言聳聽、故意煽動、完全不合學術標準的偏激片面，反映出一種賭徒心理。

The militaristic language style, the alarmist statements, the deliberate incitement, and the one-sided and prejudiced words which are completely out of line with academic standards, all reflect a gambler’s mental state.

但運氣不錯，這次還真讓他押中了，正逢美國國內因金融危機導致經濟衰退而國外又眼看中國高速崛起這個形勢鉅變時期。雖然他既不懂中國、又不懂政治和經濟、更不懂得歷史和文化，但他那個極端的、歇斯底里的反華立場，卻正好迎合了美國當時的一種社會心理。

However, he was lucky enough: the story just went as his writing. His book coincided with the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis in the United States and the dramatic changes because of China’s rapid rise. Although he did not understand China, its politics, economy, history or culture, his extreme and hysterical anti-China stance just catered to the social mentality of the United States at the time. 

於是他放棄了原本的能源和環境政策專業，也不再關心美國國內利益集團和意識形態問題，一心一意幹起了這份應運而生的新工作——替美國的經濟停滯和國力衰退尋找外國替罪羊。

He gave up his energy and environmental policy majors, and no longer cared about the US domestic interest groups and ideological issues. Instead, he only focused on this new job — looking for foreign scapegoats for the US economic stagnation and the declination of national strength.

2012年他將《致命中國》一書改編成了紀錄片，2015年他又撰寫了Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World一書，儼然以中國問題專家自居了。

In 2012, he adapted the book Death by China into a documentary. In 2015, he wrote another book Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World, proclaiming he is an expert on Chinese issues.

但假的就是假的。據美國《外交政策》的調查，為該雜誌撰寫中國問題文章的專家學者大多數都不認識這個納瓦羅。著名的漢學家、芝加哥大學中國歷史教授彭慕蘭説此人“有意避開了真正懂得一些這個國家（中國）的人士”。曾在中國生活過25年、前中國美國商會主席麥健陸直言不諱地説：（納瓦羅的書和電影）“在瞭解中國的人們眼中可信度接近於零”，“充斥着故意誇張、含糊其辭之處”。

But he’s a phony. According to Foreign Policy, most of the specialists and scholars who wrote articles on China-related issues for the magazine did not know Navarro. Kenneth Pomeranz, a professor of Chinese History at the University of Chicago, said that his “recollection is that [Navarro] generally avoided people who actually knew something about the country.” James McGregor, former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that Navarro’s books and documentary on China “have close to zero credibility with people who know the country,” and are filled with “hyperbole, inaccuracies” and a “cartoonish caricature of China that he puts out.”

唯一替這位假專家站台的，是那位名聲早已破產的章家敦先生。可笑的是，就連這位從未正確過一次的“預言大師”，也不同意納瓦羅這位新晉大師關於操縱貨幣、退出TPP和高關税等方面的主張。

Columnist Gordon G. Chang was the only China watcher contacted by Foreign Policy who defended Navarro, but even then noted that he disagreed with Navarro’s claims of currency manipulation, opposition to the TPP and calls for high tariffs.

但運氣就是運氣，此後的故事眾所周知了。這位終其一生從未在頂級學術刊物上發表過文章的“經濟學家”，多年來始終沒得到過業界承認的“中國問題專家”，五次競選加州聖迭戈市議會公職均未成功的“政治人士”，在結識了特朗普之後立刻搖身一變，就像是風投圈裏面的流行語——站上了大風口，豬也能飛起來。

But luck makes him lucky enough and the story since then is well-known. The self-proclaimed economist, who had no publications in top-tier academic journals in his whole life, failed to become a successful politician through the course of five elections in the San Diego City Council in California. After meeting Trump, his life story went on as the saying: standing in the draught, even pigs could fly.

不被學術界承認沒關係，特朗普承認！不被中國專家接受沒關係，特朗普接受，而且是全盤接受！

It is acceptable not to be recognized by the academia, but Trump himself admits: It does not matter if it was not accepted by industry-recognized experts on China. Trump’s recognition is powerful enough!

從納瓦羅進入特朗普競選團隊，直到被任命為白宮國家貿易委員會主任，這兩年多來不過就是這麼一個可笑故事：只看得懂卡通書的大佬，看上了一個只會畫卡通片的門客，兩人一拍即合，其結果卻是今年以來的世界大變局：史上最大的貿易戰在中美兩個最大的經濟體之間爆發。

From the moment Navarro entered Trump’s campaign team till he was appointed the Director of the White House National Trade Council, it has been a ridiculous story for more than two years. The president who only understood cartoon books took a fancy to a layman who could only draw cartoons. The two hit it off. The result in the world has changed a lot since this year. The largest trade war in history broke out between the two largest economic entities, namely, China and the United States.

納瓦羅的書中寫了些什麼一點也不重要，所有真正懂得中國的學者都知道，那些描寫與真實的中國相差十萬八千里；特朗普對該書如何推崇一點也不重要，因為他的理解能力，也只限於真實世界的外圍。對於兩人的密切合作，人們只需要關注這樣一個事：美國的政治經常需要虛假的事實，因為只有根據虛假的事實才能推出極端主義的政策。

What is written in Navarro’s book is not important at all. All scholars who truly understand China know that those descriptions differ from the real China; it is not important that Trump praises the book, because his comprehension ability is limited to the periphery of the real world. Via the close cooperation between the two mentioned above, people only need to pay attention to the fact that US politics often require false facts, because extreme policies can only be introduced based on fictitious facts.

美國的歷史上類似的事司空見慣。近者如2003年執意要發動伊拉克戰爭的小布什，他必須要有一份關於薩達姆政權擁有大規模殺傷性武器的虛假報告，非如此無法發動先發制人的戰爭。遠者如一百多年前的美西戰爭，當時派駐古巴的美國記者還天真地等着拍發戰爭爆發的圖片，而報業大王赫斯特一語驚醒夢中人，向他發去了那份日後極為著名的電報：你給我圖片，我給你戰爭！

The history of the United States features a handful of examples. In 2003, President George W. Bush, who insisted on launching the Iraq war, had to have a fake report that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Without it, it was impossible for the American government to start a pre-emptive war. More than 100 years ago, during the American-Spanish War, newspaper publisher William Randolph Hearst told artist Frederic Remington who, bored of his deployment in Cuba said there was no war, “You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war!”

今天的納瓦羅，與當年那些在哈瓦那的無良記者、在巴格達的無良專家，同屬一類人。其職業，就是為決策者提供虛假材料以促成誤讀和誤判，或者是出於故意，或者乾脆就是出於無知。從各方面來判斷，納瓦羅更像是後者。

Navarro in this era is similar to the unscrupulous journalists in Havana and inglorious experts in Baghdad in those old days. Their professions are to provide false materials for decision makers, in order to promote misunderstanding and misjudgment, either intentionally or simply out of ignorance. Judging from various aspects, in the case of Navarro, it’s likely the latter option.

沒關係。關於這場貿易戰，中國該説的道理都説了，該發的警告也都發了，但特朗普政府一心一意要根據卡通片的材料，按卡通片的邏輯，演繹卡通片的故事，誰也幫不了忙，最後的後果只能自己來承擔。

In fact, it does not really matter. Regarding the trade war, China has already told the truth and issued relevant warnings. However, the Trump administration only single-mindedly focuses on the “cartoon” materials. The members interpret the story according to the logic of the cartoon. As a result, the consequences can only be borne by themselves.

今天的中國，不是當年的西班牙，更不是伊拉克。如果中美關係處理得好，中國決不會成為美國的“致命中國”，但如果美國政府堅持相信納瓦羅這種關於中國的卡通片式誤讀和誤判，倒很有可能致命。

Today’s China is not like Spain or Iraq in those days. If Sino-US relations are handled well, China will never become the one by which the United States comes to death. But if the US government insists on Navarro’s cartoon, misunderstanding and misjudging China, its actions towards China are very likely to be fatal.

借用一下納瓦羅式的告誡：“獻給所有的美國朋友們。希望他們有一天能生活在真實世界裏。在那一天到來之前，請大家多保重！”

Right here, let me give a warning of Navarro’s style: “To all American friends: I hope that you can live in the real world one day. Before that day, please take good care of yourselves!”