楊潔勉：不會有新冷戰，因為美國沒那能力

【文/ 楊潔勉】

去年12月以來中美關係的緊張態勢引起全世界的關注。特朗普政府持續而系統地在戰略、經濟、外交和文化領域對中國發起攻擊。美國去年12月發表的《國家安全戰略》報告將中國定義為戰略競爭者和主要對手，五角大樓有關中國軍事和安全動向的年度報告也與此相呼應。此外，副總統邁克·彭斯在10月4日指責中國干預美國大選。特朗普總統對中國徵收高關税，並威脅如果中國以同樣方式回應的話還會加徵更多。而在同時，中國決心不開第一槍，但是會反擊。中國還與國際社會多數成員一道努力維護自由貿易，反對保護主義，捍衞基於規則的經濟秩序。也因此很多人擔心會出現一場新的冷戰。

主要國家之間的分歧日漸加大，全球體系受到侵蝕。中美兩國在南海和台灣問題上採取的立場有可能導致正面衝突。越來越多的人把當前形勢與冷戰開始時的上世紀40年代末進行比較。一些人甚至談到一場世界大戰的意外爆發。

但一場新冷戰並非不可避免。首先，當前世界的大趨勢是和平、發展與合作共贏。國際社會大多數成員都明白，在全球化時代它們比以往任何時候都更加相互依存，因此必須接受合作而不是對抗。雖然特朗普政府讓美國退出了部分國際機構，包括巴黎氣候變化協議、聯合國人權委員會、中程導彈條約，但世界不會允許二戰前發生的國際秩序崩潰再次重演，國際社會大多數成員仍然是主張合作的。最近的一個例子就是10月在布魯塞爾舉行的第12屆“亞歐會議”（ASEM），亞洲和歐洲在這次會議上攜手捍衞多邊主義，批評保護主義。

其次，不具備新冷戰的一般條件。上世紀40年代後期冷戰發生時，美國與蘇聯幾乎沒有經濟、文化和社會聯繫。後來兩個超級大國建立了北約和華約，以及西方經濟集團和經互會。現在的世界不再分成兩個對立的陣營。整個世界都意識到，新冷戰不僅有反作用，而且是災難性的。全球化世界中的新冷戰將為更危險的恐怖主義、極端主義和分裂主義提供温牀，加劇社會的分裂和對抗。而且，新冷戰會打破全球生產鏈。與上世紀40年代後期世界在對立的意識形態下分裂不同，如今國際社會絕大多數成員尋求的是進一步發展經濟和改善生活。

第三，美國沒有能力發動一場全面冷戰。即使美國想發動一場新的冷戰，也很難找到理由在美國國內説服美國人民，在國際上動員其盟國和友邦。美國人民已經看到足夠的證據，證明正常的、合作的對華關係符合其自身利益，他們不會允許這種關係落入新冷戰的陷阱。從國際上説，美國許多盟國和友邦都是中國的戰略伙伴，它們不會選邊站隊。歐洲國家和日本正在謀求與中國建立獨立的互惠互利關係。美國當局遲早會意識到新冷戰是走不通的。

第四，中國會努力避免新的冷戰。中國已經與上世紀40年代末和50年代初完全不同，如今中國是世界第二大經濟體，擁有極大的影響力。中國正在通過一種新型國際關係努力構建“人類命運共同體”。面對美國發起的攻擊，中國一再主張合作是中美關係的唯一正確選擇，並堅持不對抗、不衝突、相互尊重、合作共贏原則。因此，中國的力量和智慧非常有助於世界避免新的冷戰。

最後同樣重要的是，中美關係已有了一些積極發展的跡象。中國在言論和行動上的反擊是有分寸的，是剋制的。美國國務卿和國防部長已經降低了他們的調門，開始談及對話和溝通。最重要的是，習近平主席和唐納德·特朗普總統將在11月底舉行的阿根廷G20峯會上會面。人們可以謹慎樂觀地認為，理性和政治家風範最終將佔上風，中美關係將重新走上正軌。

附英文版

The tensions in China-US relations have caught the world’s attention since last December. The Trump administration has consistently and systematically launched attacks against China on strategic, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fronts. Last December the US National Security Strategy report defined China as its strategic competitor and main adversary. This was echoed by the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military and security developments. Moreover, on October 4 this year Vice President Mike Pence accused China of meddling in American elections. President Trump imposes high tariffs and threatens more if China reacts in the same manner. In the meantime, China is determined not to fire the first shot, but it will hit back. China also works with the majority of international community to preserve free trade, oppose protectionism, and defend the rule-based economic order. Therefore, many people are concerned that there will be a new Cold War.

Major countries’ differences are widening. The global system is eroding. The two countries are adopting stances on the Taiwan question and the South China Sea that can lead to head-on collisions. More and more people are making comparisons between now and the late 1940s when the Cold War started. Some people even are talking about accidentally starting a World War.

But a new Cold War is not inevitable. Firstly, the present general trends of the world are peace, development, and win-win cooperation. Most of the international community understands that in the age of globalization, they are more interdependent than ever before. Therefore, they must embrace cooperation rather than confrontation. As the Trump administration withdraws the US from a number of international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the reoccurrence of the collapse of the international order that happened before WWII. On the contrary, most members of the international community still advocate for cooperation. The recent case in point is the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Brussels in October, at which Asia and Europe joined hands in defending multilateralism and criticizing protectionism.

Secondly, there are no general conditions for a new Cold War. When the Cold War took place in the late 1940s, the United States and the Soviet Union had few economic, cultural, and social contacts. Later on the two superpowers built up NATO and the Warsaw Pact, as well as the Western economic bloc and the Council for Mutual Economic Aid (Comecon). The present world is no longer being divided into two confrontational camps. The world as a whole realizes that a new Cold War is not only counter-productive but catastrophic. A new Cold War in the globalized world would provide a hot-bed to more dangerous terrorism, extremism and secessionism, and exacerbate social division and confrontation. Moreover, a new Cold War will break up the chains of global production. Unlike the late 1940s when the world was divided along confrontational ideologies, the great majority of the international community is for further development and a better life.

Thirdly, the United States does not have the capability to wage an all-out Cold War. Even if the United States wants to wage a new Cold War, it could hardly find reasons to convince the American people domestically and mobilize its allies and friends internationally. The American people have seen enough evidence that a normal and cooperative relationship with China is in their own interests and they would not allow this relationship to fall into the trap of a new Cold War. Internationally speaking, many allies and friends of the United States are China’s strategic partners. They will not choose sides. The European countries and Japan are seeking independent and mutually beneficially relations with China. Sooner or later, the American establishment will come to realize that a new Cold War is a dead-end.

Fourthly, China tries hard to avoid a new Cold War. China is totally different from how it was in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Now China is the world’s number two economy with a great deal of clout. China is striving for a Community of Shared Future For Mankind through a new type of international relations. In the face of the US-initiated attacks, China repeatedly advocates cooperation as the only right choice for China-US relations and insists on the principles of non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, China’s strength and wisdom can tremendously help the world to avoid a new Cold War.

Last but not least, there are already some signs of positive development in China-US relations. China’s counter rhetoric and actions have been measured and restrained. The US Secretaries of State and Defense have toned down their voices and started to talk about dialogue and communication. Most importantly, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will meet at the G-20 Argentina Summit at the end of November. People can be cautiously optimistic that rationality and statesmanship will prevail eventually, and China-US relations will come back to the right track.

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