中國經濟即將崩潰？這是不可能的！_風聞

2002年，美國華裔律師章家敦寫了一部名為《中國即將崩潰》的書。

他在書中預言了中國經濟的繁榮是虛假的，最多隻能維持五年。

17年過去了，中國經濟不但沒有崩潰，反而更加繁盛。這些成就的背後，離不開我們堅定的理論自信。

解讀中國工作室推出系列短片《中國共產黨與人民同行》，讓我們一同走進那段風雲變幻的歷史，感受中國共產黨百年來艱苦卓絕的奮鬥歷程和取得的輝煌成就！

《理論自信：紮根中國大地的中國理念》

西方社會關於中國即將崩潰的預測從未消失，但前倫敦市副市長約翰·羅斯卻認為這一定不會發生。

西方有這麼一羣人一直在預言中國經濟走向崩潰。比較搞笑的是，這些人的信譽居然還在。最搞笑的是章家敦，2002年他寫了一部名為《中國即將崩潰》的書，但中國沒有崩潰。西方的問題在於他們關於中國的理論是錯誤的。他們認為中國經濟不應該獲得成功。當事實與之相反時，他們沒有仔細研究事實，分析錯在哪裏，他們卻預言中國經濟不會繼續增長，中國會面臨大災難。

It just raised a whole industry in the west predicting that China is going to collapse. What is ridiculous is that these people continue credibility. I mean the most farcical is Gorden Chang who wrote a book in 2002 called The Coming Collapse of China. China hasn’t collapsed. The problem in the west is that they had a wrong theory of China. They thought that Chinese economy should not succeed. When the facts went against that, instead of examining the facts， （for） example, why their theory is wrong, we predicted that Chinese economy will not grow, there will be a big disaster in China.

那麼這種理論錯在哪裏呢？約翰·羅斯給出了自己的答案。

這些理論是錯誤的。錯在哪裏呢？他們試圖否定事實。他們説自己的理論是正確的，中國並沒有真正實現增長或者説中國並沒有真正改善社會狀況，如果他們以此依舊無法脱身，他們就會説，中國即將崩潰，因為，眾所周知，中國經濟在過去的三十八年裏是世界上增速最快的經濟。他們會説中國下一年會崩潰。如果下一年中國沒有崩潰，他們就會説在那之後一年會崩潰。這不科學，我把它稱為幻想文學。

Our theory was wrong. Therefore，what’s wrong with that theory. They attempt to defy the facts. They say our theory is right, China hasn’t really grown or China hasn’t really improved the social conditions or if they can’t get away with that, because, you know, China has the world’s most rapid growing economy for the last thirty-eight years, they say, well it’s about to collapse. It will collapse next year. And then when it doesn’t collapse next year, those say that it will collapse the year later, right? That is not doing science and that’s what I called fantasy literature.

澳大利亞前外交部長鮑勃•卡爾認為中國所取得的變化離不開鄧小平的領導。

我認為中國經濟現代化是由自鄧小平以來的中國領導層推動的，偉大的鄧小平領導了世界歷史上最為成功的一項革命。 是的，最大的變化是中國多年來保持經濟高速增長。自鄧小平上台並開展改革以來，沒有人預料到中國從上世紀九十年代到本世紀能夠取得如此巨大的成功。沒人預料到了這一點。沒有硬着陸，沒有經濟崩潰。公眾對一些艱難的措施給予支持，如九十年代的國企改革。我的意思是，沒人能預料到這樣的成功。當我聽到一些人，尤其是美國人説中國經濟遲早會走到盡頭，中國將陷入停滯，我就會説，你們都説了20年了，然而它並沒有發生。

I think the modernization of the Chinese economy driven by Chinese leadership since Deng Xiaoping, the great Deng Xiaoping has been the most successful revolution in world history.  Yes, the biggest change is that China has had the year after year of high economic growth. Back when I was watching the emergence of Deng Xiaoping and his reforms, nobody expected that right through the 90s and into this century, China would have such a run of success. No one expected that. No hard landing. No economic collapse. Public support for hard measures like the reforms of the state sector in the 1990s, I mean nobody could have expected such success. And when I hear people, especially Americans say it’s all going to come to an end, China would fall into a stagnation, I say you’ve been saying that for twenty years and it hasn’t happened.

關於中國的預言遠不止崩潰論這一種，而事實上，中國的成就已經打破了很多預言。

馬來西亞大學中國研究所常務副所長饒兆斌這樣認為：

中國已經打破了很多的預言，例如，如果不進行政治體系改革，中國就會解體，如果不按西方國家的想法對經濟體系進行進一步市場化改革，那麼中國經濟將面臨很多問題。另一方面，這些唱衰中國的論調低估了當前這一體系在應對因缺乏改革而積累形成的危機與問題時的韌性。最終，他們能夠處理部分問題，有一些問題會徹底解決。當然，也會有新的問題湧現出來，他們也能夠加以應對。

Well, China basically defies many of these predictions that if you don’t reform your political system, then you will collapse and if you don’t reform your economic system in the way they want, you know, further marketization, then you will encounter a lot of problems. On the other hand, this kind of predictions of doom may underestimate the resilience of the present system in responding to these crisis or these issues that accumulate from the lack of reform. Eventually, generally, they are able to do with some part of these issues, some of them completely gone. And then they does of course other new issues come out there, they are also able to respond.

“如果想要了解中國，他們就需要先關注事實，而非帶着意識形態的偏見進行研究。”

新加坡國立大學東亞研究所所長鄭永年認為研究過程中的實事求是精神非常重要。

事實上，中國共產黨已變得非常強大。因此，我告訴那些學者：如果想要了解中國，他們就需要先關注事實，而非帶着意識形態的偏見進行研究。鄧小平曾説過要實事求是，應該堅持真理，先調查事實，然後做出判斷。

Actually the party has become so strong. So that’s why I tell scholars that if you want to understand China, you need to look at those facts first. Don’t, you know, you should not have the ideology bias perspective towards China. What Deng Xiaoping mentioned as “Shi Shi Qiu Shi”. You should, you have to stick truth for facts. So you have to look into facts first, then you have a judgment.

中國的自信來源於已經取得的成就，那些説中國經濟將會崩潰的預言永遠不會發生。