買凱迪拉克的中國人比美國人多，説明了什麼_風聞

《華盛頓郵報》5月11日刊登金融欄目作者大衞·林奇文章《特朗普跟中國打貿易戰之時，中美經濟關係已經被重新定義》

文：David J. Lynch

譯：李惠妍

去年，中國消費者購買的凱迪拉克汽車數量首次超過美國消費者，提升了通用汽車公司的利潤增長。儘管這些豪車的設計環節可能是在美國底特律進行的，但它們基本都是通用汽車在中國靠將近6萬名中國工人組裝完成的。

越來越多的美國企業在中國製造商品，服務中國消費者。這種越來越顯著的動態標誌着全球貿易正在發生轉型，對特朗普的“美國優先”政策構成了重大巨大挑戰。

特朗普所有意圖重塑中美經濟關係的行動都建立在一個他反覆提及的觀念之上，即中國靠低薪製造業向美國大批出口商品，損害美國工人的利益。

近來，這場戰役翻開了新的一頁——特朗普宣稱對中美貿易談判的進度感到不滿，再次對中國商品加徵關税。

然而，許多經濟學家和企業高管表示，無論特朗普能否與中國達成貿易協定，兩國的商貿關係已經發生了質的改變。

改革開放四十年後，中國正在從“低薪出口國”這逐漸轉變成消費大國，成為汽車、電玩、電腦等越來越多行業的頭號消費市場。

中國已是美國豪車凱迪拉克的頭號市場

哈佛大學亞洲中心高級研究員歐威廉（William Overholt）表示：“我們正處於生產全球化時代的末期，也是消費全球化的開端。未來的經濟重心會從西方嬰兒潮一代轉向相對更年輕的中國消費者。”

例如，麥肯錫全球研究所的數據顯示，十年前，中國製造的商品有71%是在國內市場被消化掉的，如今比例提升到了85%。還要考慮到今天中國經濟的規模是十年前的三倍。

經合組織提出，到2020年，中國人均收入將比2010年翻一番。

這樣的增長現象也出現在其他快速發展的國家，如印度、印尼等。一系列新贏家和新輸家將由此產生。

在美國，消費全球化的主要受益者很可能是投資者和高等技術人才，而不是那些因企業遷向海外而利益受損的藍領工人。

美國經濟和政策研究中心的資深經濟學家迪安•貝克説：“這種全球化主要與追逐利潤有關，和美國國內就業沒什麼關係。”

過去，美國人購買了大量中國製造的低成本商品，這對中國工人和節儉的美國人來説都是件好事。但反過來説，當美國企業在中國和其他發展中國家開設工廠，試圖迎合中國消費者的時候，美國消費者就不一定笑得出來了。

2018年天貓雙十一購物節成交額達2135億

美國經濟分析局的數據顯示，目前美國的跨國公司在中國創造就業機會的速度已經超過了美國本土。從2009年至今，美國企業在華員工規模擴大了86%，達到170萬人，大約四倍於美國國內招聘速度。

特朗普的貿易政策要讓美國經濟回到全球化之前的水平。但中國這樣的發展勢頭意味着，哪怕他能和兩國能達成良好的協議，美國的政策也難免令人失望。

美國政府官員聲稱，他們正在努力糾正前幾屆政府的錯誤，重新平衡美國與中國及其他國家的貿易關係。例如，新的北美貿易協定要求汽車企業更多地在美國境內完成生產（此協定尚待美國國會通過）。特朗普的關税被認為有助於美國鋼鐵產業的復甦，也是他任期內製造業新增45.2萬個工作崗位的原因之一。

其他趨勢也有利於美國。自動化程度的提高及中國等國家工資上漲，使勞動力成本對新工廠選址的重要程度下降。這使得美國成為更具吸引力的投資目的地，儘管自動化程度提高也意味着新工廠不需要那麼多美國工人（本世紀初美國工廠關停後，減少了600萬個工作崗位。）

隨着工廠大批遷出美國，許多教堂、學校、監獄也逐漸廢棄

在中美貿易談判中，美國政府也在尋求更多進入中國市場的機會，或許有助於美國出口。但新的機遇基本無助於彌補過去20年來中美貿易關係深化時期美國藍領工人的利益損失。

美國談判代表試圖推動中國開放金融服務、保險和雲計算等行業。這些行業儘管利潤豐厚，但只惠及受過良好教育、掌握高等技能的人才。

在特朗普口中，全球商貿的中心是美國而非其他國家。他宣稱其他國家能向美國市場出售商品是一種“特權”。上任第四天，他就決定退出有12國參與的跨太平洋夥伴關係協定。當前，全球需求增長靠發展中國家推動，特朗普的舉措使美國企業在亞洲的關鍵市場處於不利地位。

現在，許多企業高管都不看好美國重新成為全球主導性市場。

美中貿易全國委員會的企業會員包括亞馬遜、高盛、寶潔等知名公司，它的主席克雷格•艾倫表示，特朗普政府的立場讓跨國公司面臨困境。

曾擔任美國外交官的艾倫説，“一家公司今天告訴我，他們覺得股東的要求和特朗普政府的要求之間存在矛盾。特朗普政府在建議或強調企業應該在美國境內投資，可美國市場既沒有規模，也沒有增長潛力。”

儘管汽車製造商對特朗普做出許諾，但仍然沒有顯著增加就業

當然，儘管消費在中國經濟增長中發揮了重要作用，但中國仍然是世界最大的出口國之一，擁有相當大的商品貿易順差。因此，奧巴馬時期的白宮經濟學家布拉德•塞澤爾認為，現在談論“新時代”還為時過早。

“這是未來全球經濟可能的演化路徑之一，不一定是當前的軌跡，”他説。

相較於本世紀初的兩位數增長速度，中國目前的經濟增速有所放緩，部分企業高管對能否深化市場改革表示關切。中國企業債務負擔沉重，有經濟學家提出了金融危機的警告，這可能推遲經濟新時代的到來。

中國人的個人收入仍遠低於美國人。採用購買力平價計算（即考慮中美生活成本差異），中國人均收入約為1.6萬美元，而美國人均收入約為6萬美元。

儘管如此，蘋果、沃爾瑪和卡特彼勒等眾多美國企業仍然特別看重，或者説最看重中國的市場機遇。舊金山銘基國際投資公司的投資策略師安迪•羅斯曼表示，過去十年間，中國人均收入增長了120%，而美國只有15%。

“中國消費者的故事是全世界最精彩的，”羅斯曼説。

更廣義地看待中國經濟繁榮，它其實是發展中國家轉型的一部分，這種轉變對跨境商品貿易規模、工業供應鏈設計以及工廠人機比例都帶來了影響。

麥肯錫全球研究所的一項研究顯示，以中國為首的發展中國家正快速增長，預計到2030年它們的消費量將佔全球總量的51%，兩倍於2007年的比例。

美國、歐盟和日本等發達經濟體的企業去年向發展中國家的客户出售了價值4.5 萬億美元的商品，包括機械、化工品和汽車。

負責該項研究的麥肯錫合夥人蘇珊•倫德表示，“現在設置貿易壁壘，恰好是錯誤的。”

國際貨幣基金組織的數據顯示，近年來，中國經濟增長對全球經濟增長的貢獻比例超過三分之一，大致相當於美國、歐洲和日本的總貢獻量。

這個趨勢具體到通用汽車公司的案例中則表現為，該公司去年向中國買家交付汽車365萬輛，而在美國的銷售量則不到300萬輛。去年，該公司通過在華合資企業獲得了20億美元營收。

通用汽車高級副總裁史蒂夫•卡萊爾在上個月的一次投資者會議上表示：“凱迪拉克去年銷售382184輛，創下該品牌116年曆史中的最高銷量，主要歸功於我們在中國市場的強勁業績。”

美國跨國公司在海外業務蓬勃發展，通常也會為其本土總部、研究實驗室和設計工作室增添就業崗位。像凱迪拉克這樣的成功業務部門創造的利潤大大有利於企業整體盈利，並通過創新為美國人帶來了就業機會。但這些收益更多地流向了投資者和受過良好教育的工人。

美國國際金融研究所副首席經濟學家塞爾吉•拉瑙表示：“中國消費者購買更多的凱迪拉克，為公司股東和高技能員工帶來了更多的好處。未來美國的利益分配不均現象將更加突出。”

As Trump fights with China over trade,U.S.-China economic relationship already being redefined

Chinese consumers for the first time last year bought more Cadillacs than Americans did, helping drive profits at General Motors. And though the designs for those Cadillacs may have been drafted in Detroit, nearly all of the luxury automobiles were assembled in China by some of GM’s nearly 60,000 local workers.

This growing dynamic — of American companies serving Chinese consumers with products made in China — marks a shift in global trade that could pose a significant challenge to President Trump’s“America First” agenda.

Trump has based his campaign to refashion economic relations with China on the well-established notion that the country undercut American workers through low-wage manufacturing of goods exported tothe United States.

That campaign entered a new chapter thisweek when Trump once again hiked tariffs on Chinese goods after declaring himself dissatisfied with the pace of negotiations on a new trade agreement.

But whether he succeeds in securing a trade deal, many economists and executives say, the nature of the business relationship between the United States and China already is being redefined.

After four decades of economic reform, China is morphing from a low-wage exporter into the largest consumer market fora growing number of industries, including automobiles, video games and computers.

“We’re at the end of a period of the globalization of production,”said William Overholt, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Asia Center.“We’re at the beginning of a period of globalization of consumption in which the center of gravity moves from baby boomers in the west to the relatively young Chinese.”

A decade ago, for instance, Chinese consumers bought 71 percent of the products manufactured in China, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Today, the Chinese buy 85 percent of what they produce — and their economy is three times larger.

By next year, China’s per-person income will have doubled since 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The phenomenon, which is also seen in other quickly developing countries like India and Indonesia, will create a new set of winners and losers.

In the United States, the principal beneficiaries of the era of globalized consumption are likely to be investors and highly skilled employees, rather than the blue-collar workers who suffered as companies moved overseas.

“It’s definitely a profits story,” said Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “It’ll have very little to do with any jobs here.”

In the past, Americans bought up the low-cost goods made in China, which was a boon for Chinese workers and also for cost-conscious Americans. But, in seeking to cater to the Chinese consumer, the reverse is not true. American companies instead are setting up factories there and in other developing markets.

Already, United States -based multinationals have been creating jobs faster in China than at home, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Since 2009, corporations have increased their Chinese workforce by 86 percent to 1.7 million — roughly four times the rate of increase at home.

For Trump, that means a trade policy that often seems to promise a return to an earlier era before globalization could disappoint, even if he secures a good deal with the Chinese.

Administration officials say they are making headway rebalancing trade relations with China and other countries to rectify mistakes made by Trump’s predecessors. A new North American trade deal, for example, requires more auto manufacturing to be done in the United States. (It still needs to be passed by Congress.) The president’s tariffs are credited with reviving steel production, one factor in the addition of 452,000 new manufacturing jobs during his tenure.

Other trends also could benefit the United States. Rising wages in countries such as China and increasing automation are making labor costs relatively less important in determining the location of new factories. That makes the U.S. more attractive as an investment destination, though rising automation means new plants require fewer American workers than the factories that closed earlier this century, vaporizing 6 million jobs.

In trade talks with Beijing, the administration also is seeking greater access to the Chinese market, which could aid U.S. export prospects. But the biggest new opportunities may do little for blue-collar workers who lost out over the past 20 years of growing U.S.-China trade ties.

U.S. negotiators are pushing the Chinese to open their markets for industries such as financial services, insurance and cloud computing. These are profitable endeavors, but ones that favor the well-educated and skilled.

The president has often portrayed a narrative of global commerce that puts the United States — not foreign markets— at the center. He calls it a “privilege” for other countries to sell into the U.S. market. And his decision to quit a 12-nation Pacific trade deal, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, on his fourth day in office left American companies at a disadvantage in key Asian markets at a time when developing countries are driving the growth in global demand.

Now, many executives say they do not expect the United States to reclaim its role as the globe’s dominant market.

Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents companies such as Amazon, Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble, said the administration’s stance presents multinationals with a dilemma.

“A company told me today they feel some tension between what their shareholders are telling them and what the Trump administration is telling them,” said Allen, a former U.S. diplomat. “The administration is suggesting or emphasizing investment in the U.S. That’s not where the market is; that’s not where the market growth is.”

To be sure, despite consumption’s blossoming role in China’s growth, the country remains one of the world’s top exporters and enjoys a sizable merchandise trade surplus. Brad Setser, a former White House economist in the Obama administration, said talk of a new era is premature.

“This is one possible future evolution of the global economy. It isn’t necessarily the trajectory we’re already on,” he said.

The Chinese economy also has slowed from its double-digit growth pace of earlier this decade, and many business executives doubt President Xi Jinping’s commitment to further market-oriented reforms. China faces a daunting corporate debt burden that some economists warn could spark a financial crisis and delay the onset of a new economic era.

The typical Chinese individual also still earns much less than an American. In terms of purchasing power parity, which takes account of each country’s living costs, Chinese per-capita income is about $16,000, compared with roughly $60,000 in the United States.

Still, China has firmly established itself as a top opportunity — if not the top opportunity — for a wide range ofAmerican companies, including Apple, Walmart and Caterpillar. Over the past decade, per-person income in China has grown by 120 percent, compared with just 15 percent in the United States , according to Andy Rothman, an investment strategist with Matthews Asia in San Francisco.

“This is the world’s best consumer story,” Rothman said.

China’s growing prosperity is part of a broader transformation of developing countries that is affecting the volume of goods traded across borders, the design of industry supply chains and the mix between factory labor and robots.

By 2030, fast-growing developing countries led by China are expected to account for 51 percent of global consumption, nearly double their 2007 share, according to a study by McKinsey Global Institute.

Companies in the advanced economies, including the United States , the European Union and Japan, last year sold $4.5 trillion worth of goods, including machinery, chemicals and cars, to customersin poorer nations.

“This is exactly the wrong time to be putting up barriers to trade,”said Susan Lund, a McKinsey partner who directed the study.

In recent years, China accounted for more than one-third of global economic growth — roughly equal to the combined contributions of the United States, Europe and Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund.

For General Motors, that translated into deliveries of 3.65 million vehicles last year to Chinese buyers, compared with fewer than 3 million to Americans. The automaker earned $2 billion last year from its joint ventures in China.

“We posted the highest global sales mark in Cadillac’s 116-year history of 382,184 units, primarily on the strength of our performance inChina,” Steve Carlisle, senior vice president of General Motors, told an investor conference last month.

U.S. multinationals that prosper overseas typically add jobs back home at their headquarters, research labs and design studios. Successful ventures like Cadillac’s generate profits that flow to the corporate bottom line, generating job-creating innovations for Americans.

But those gains tilt toward investors and better-educated workers.

“The benefit of Chinese consumers buying more Cadillacs accrue more to shareholders and very high-skilled people. You’ll see more of an unbalanced distribution of benefits,” said Sergi Lanau, deputy chief economist for the Institute of International Finance.

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