中美貿易戰：美國網友怎麼看中美貿易戰_風聞

國外軍壇討論中美貿易戰 [美國媒體]

Trade War with China

譯文簡介美國網友：美國和他制定的“美國規則”已經使世界市場扭曲，美國大資本和特殊利益集團已經處於金融金字塔的頂端。而中國也正在強化內部層級、提升相對國力。譯文來源原文地址：https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/正文翻譯原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：騎着毛驢到處走 轉載請註明出處論壇地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-485977-1-1.htmlTrade War with China國外軍壇討論中美貿易戰評論翻譯

原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：騎着毛驢到處走 轉載請註明出處論壇地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-485977-1-1.html

zealotaiur485 said: zealotaiur485 ↑

Rationality only works when both parties in the room are open to it. In the current USA-China trade war, only China is rational. The US govt is too far gone and can’t back out now. In the beginning it was a trade dispute. But now, imo, it’s pretty a bloodbath war between an old dying king (USA) and the young prince who’s next in line for the throne (China). The old king has already lost his rationality and succumbed to fear and paranoia. His entire objective right now is to wipe out any potential threats to his seat of power. Even though the tariffs are doing damage to the US as well, he doesn’t care and considers it a small price to pay in order to maintain his hegemony.Can’t talk sense into an irrational person no matter how hard you try..

只有當房間裏的雙方都持理性開放態度時，理智才會發揮作用。在當前中美貿易戰中，只有中國是理性的。美國政府迫於種種原因，無法後退。在我看來，這是一場血腥的戰爭，一方是垂死的老國王(美國)，另一方是即將登上王位的年輕王子(中國)。老國王已經失去了理性，屈服於恐懼和偏執。他現在的全部目標是消滅任何潛在的，敢染指他的權力寶座的威脅。儘管關税也在損害美國，但他並不在意，反而認為這是為了維護自己的霸權而付出的一點小小的代價。不管你怎麼努力，也無法説服一個失去理智的人。

PanAsian

The thing is the US and world market distortions under “US rules” is what keeps US big money special interests at the top of their domestic totem pole, so it’s very much a mirror image situation. Just as some posters have said China can sacrifice overall economic progress to reinforce their internal hierarchy and advance relative national strength,

美國和他制定的“美國規則”已經使世界市場扭曲，美國大資本和特殊利益集團已經處於金融金字塔的頂端。而中國也正在強化內部層級、提升相對國力。

Biscuits

Fact is, most if not all of US allies are countries it extensively helped build up after WW2 or countries that are outright puppets. The former has some fairly powerful countries like UK and France, but they have very seldom been willing to stand up to another superpower. They help against third world countries, but are unwilling to compromise their technological access and economical strength to help Washington against Beijing, or even Moscow

.事實上，不是所有的美國盟友都是美國在二戰後幫助建立起來的，大多數受美國資助建立起來國家完全變成了美國的傀儡。英國和法國雖然很強大，但它們很少願意對抗另一個超級大國。就算欺負第三世界國家，英國和法國都不願犧牲自己的技術優勢和經濟實力，更不要説幫助華盛頓對抗北京，甚至莫斯科了。

The latter category is hilariously weak, consisting of barely independent/SAR countries like Panama, Puerto Rico, Micronesia and Nauru.In contrast, China has Russia, Pakistan and NK, all nuclear powers that are there by their own choice and ready to go very far to defend China and follow through on Chinese resolutions. Then, China has a slew of BRI countries whose relations to China I.e. they’ll help in words and when it’s convinient, but not put themselves in the firing line over superpower games.

除此之外大多數國家實力弱得可笑，包括巴拿馬、波多黎各、密克羅尼西亞和瑙魯等幾乎不算獨立的特區國家。相比之下，中國有俄羅斯、巴基斯坦和朝鮮，這些國家都是有核國家，而且利益和中國相同。其次，中國通過“一帶一路”與很多國家建立了聯繫，只要這些國家在大國對抗中保持中立，中國就算達到目的了

Hendrik_2000Brigadier

I don’t think that China will copy or mimic US style of leading the world If anything there is serious study right now to return to what work for China in the past Having allies is more burden then what is worth eg US spend so much money maintaining bases all over the world and getting into conflict because of her allies, Iraq war etc. The consequence of it is imperial overstretch spending necessary amount of money for defenseI think you are reading too much of western press that is extolling American allies and lack of it for China as sign of strength.

我不認為中國將複製或模仿美國的風格引領世界對美國來説，盟友更多的是負擔，美國現在化錢維持着世界各地的軍事基地和衝突，因為盟友，美國在國防上花費了太多不必要的資金你對盟友關係看得過重，完全是被西方媒體對美國盟友關係的頌揚和吹捧帶跑偏了而對中國來説，有沒有盟友無所謂，唯我獨尊才是實力的象徵。

This is consistent with America’s strategy. Everywhere you go, the dollar reigns. Google/Facebook/Intel/Boeing/Big pharma dominate via patents and anti competitive practices. Systems which they created to suit them. Wherever US financial institutions/companies go, you can see the destruction of domestic alternatives. They have too much power/capital and its impossible to compete under the rules they’ve set for the world

.美國的戰略與此如出一轍。無論你走到哪裏，美元都占主導地位。谷歌/臉書/英特爾/波音/大型製藥公司通過專利和反競爭行為佔據主導地位。無論美國金融機構/公司走到哪裏，你都能看到那裏的本土企業遭到毀滅性打擊。美國有太多的權力/資本，為世界制定下無法與美國競爭的規則。

Everyone is like peasant living under a feudal lord that dictates everything. The system, however, collapses when there is no place left to expand.

此時的每個人，就像生活在封建領主統治下的農民一樣。而當沒有新的地方可供拓展時，這個系統就會自動崩潰。

antiterror13There will be no single dollar extracted from Chinese exporters .. all will be paid by Americans consumers or American corporate profits

提高關税不會讓美國從中國出口商那裏榨取哪怕一美元.所有的錢將由美國消費者或美國公司承擔。

KIENCHINThink about the growing Chinese consumer market and that is why these companies are there in the first place. The company i work for is now focusing on the greater bay area for the next big growth story

想想不斷增長的中國消費市場，這就是為什麼這些公司會選擇留在中國。我所在的公司現在正把重點放在中國沿海的城市羣，為中國下一輪的經濟提速做準備。

localizerI think another take on the situation is this:China’s economy and wages are growing rapidly, comparably, in terms of purchasing power. Whatever excess industrial capacity resulting from the tariffs might be absorbed by Chinese consumers in the next few years. It might not be worth it to shift the existing supply chain in that case.

我對此有另一種看法：就購買力而言，中國的經濟水平和工資水平正在快速增長。未來幾年，中國龐大的消費羣體可能會吸收掉因關税造成的任何過剩的工業產能。在這種情況下，改變現有的供應鏈可能並不值得。

The US, on the other hand, risks losing the Chinese market for its goods. The US has no room to grow domestically other than by debt. ex last year GDP was 5% nominal, debt 6%.. We shall see.、

另一方面，美國是冒着失去中國商品市場的風險在和中國打貿易戰。除了債務以外，美國國內沒有任何新的增長空間。美國2018年的名義GDP增長率是5%，而債務增長率卻是6%。我們對此可以拭目以待

NutrientAlso, according to the World Bank, in 2017 China’s total exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP. So exports to the U.S. amount to 18% of 20%, or 3.6% of GDP. Even if the whole 3.6% should stay in China (which is not so likely), the excess goods could easily be absorbed by a small rise in the country’s internal consumption.In 10-15 years, China’s economy will double again if it policies remain good.

根據世界銀行的數據，2017年中國出口總額佔GDP的比例不到20%。而對美國的出口額佔出口總額的18%到20%，中國總GDP的3.6%，因此，過剩的商品很容易被中國國內消費的小幅增長所吸收。如果中國今後政策執行的當，那麼10-15年後，，中國經濟將再次翻番。

localizerA 6% growth rate means a doubling time of less than 12 years. For 5% growth, the doubling time would be slightly over 14 years.

6%的增長率意味着中國經濟翻一番只需要不到12年。如果是5%的增長率，時間要略長一點，可能要14年。

CypherNow it’s almost like a 21th-century version of The Emperor’s New Clothes, I don’t understand what is Trump’s ultimate goal for this trade war, and I begin to believe even himself has no idea what is he doing…

這場突兀的貿易戰就像是21世紀版的《皇帝的新衣》，我不明白特朗普突然發起這場貿易戰的最終目標是什麼，我認為特朗普自己也不知道他在做什麼。

XsizorI don’t think a 6% or even a 5% gdp growth can be sustained for a decade. May be three more years and by the 2030, it is going to be around 3.5 or 4% growth.

我不認為6%甚至5%的GDP增長率中國能維持十年。也許到2030年，中國的增長率已經跌至3.5%或4%左右。

GatekeeperWhat make you so sure 6% growth rate is unsustainable over the next decade?China has been growing at over 10% in the past 30 years. I know during the past 30 yearsSi 6% growth rate is not a lot when you consider US still managed 3% in a mature (maybe tired) economy.

是什麼讓你確信中國未來十年不可能保持6%的增長率的？在過去的30年裏，中國的平均經濟增長率超過了10%。既然美國作為一個龐大的經濟體中仍然有着3%的增長率，那麼6%的增長率對中國來説也並不算高。

XsizorThe 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

中國的私人債務佔比達到260%。中國政府遲早要調整政策，找出/糾正這些問題。中國的影子銀行必須受到控制。所有意味着中國可能面臨用於投資資金短缺。再加上貿易戰，中國今年GDP的增長將會受到一點影響，可能會有2.5%或3%的跌幅。

GatekeeperBoy, you bought this debt thing that western MSM keeps on about.1st, China is not even the heighest private dabt nation, in fact, most of the western nations have higher private debts than Chins, no one in the western MSM was shouting how that is going to lower their growth.

天哪，你就是典型的受西方主流媒體洗腦的典型範例第一，中國不是世界上私人債務比率最高的國家，事實上，大多數西方國家的私人債務都比中國高，但在西方的主流媒體中，沒有人嚷嚷這一點。

2nd 260% maybe high but not unmanagebly so. In fact, in our younger days, most people in the UK snd US takes up mortgages of 300 to 400% of their GROSS income, and still we managed to repay the loan , and maintain our standard of life.Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying debt is good, I’m just saying the naysayers seem to think debt in China is a major problem whereas same level of debt in the west is fine.

第二，260%可能很高，但也不是無法管理。事實上，在我年輕的時候，當時大多數的英國人和美國人都揹負着他們總收入的300%到400%的抵押貸款，但我們那一代人仍然設法償還了貸款，並維持了我們的生活水平。別誤會我的意思，我不是説債務是好的，我只是説反對者似乎只着眼於中國債務問題卻忽略了自身的債務問題。

And while we talking about debt, you noticed this naysayers never mention Government debt, (whuch US is by some margin larger than China’s or most other nations)

當我們談論債務問題的時候，你會發現挑刺的人從來不會提政府債務，(因為到目前為止，美國的政府債務是最高的)。

China is not immune to law of economics.But what we are saying is China hasn’t reach the maturity stage yet!China still have lots of growing room left, as pointed out in my other posts regarding underdeveloped areas of the interiors.China’s GDP per capita is only 1/4 of the US, and if China and its people is as efficient and effective in their endevours, then I don’t think there’s any reasons why China can’t continue to grow at 6% until it appraches US productivity level!

當然，中國也會受經濟規律的影響。但我要説的是，中國現在還在上升期！正如我在其他帖子中指出的那樣，中國仍有很大的增長空間。中國的人均GDP只有美國的1/4，如果中國和中國人民繼續努力，我認為中國沒有任何理由不能繼續保持6%的增長速度，直到中國趕上美國的生產力水平！

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My point is China, and the Chinese people, doesn’t have to look that far back into history to know and realise. In the past 100 years we have experienced foreign invasions, two world wars, Japanese occupation, a bloody civil war, famines, droughts, political turmoils and internal battles for power, the Cold War; and all kinds of ideologies - Capitalism, Imperialism, Democracy, Republic, Communism, Socialism, command economy, mixed economy, market economywe’ve fought harder battles and survived them, and prospered afterwards.

中國和中國人民不需要追溯那麼久遠的歷史，只要翻翻近代史，改革開放三十年的發展史，我們就會意識到，我們之前的戰鬥比現在更慘烈，一百年多來，我們經歷了外敵入侵、兩次世界大戰、日本入侵、血腥內戰、饑荒、旱災、政治動盪、冷戰，以及資本主義、帝國主義、民主、共和、共產主義、社會主義、計劃經濟、混合經濟、市場經濟等各種意識形態的碰撞。但今天的我們還是克服了重重困難站在這裏，不但今天的我們站在這裏，以後的我們仍將站立在這裏

Yes it’s true that today’s China is more wary of wars, be it a hot war or an economic one. because we know it took a lot of hard work to get to where we are now .Trump will never understand this as he was born rich. He will never understand what it’s like to work hard for something to get it. That’s why he will not understand the Chinese. That’s why he will not truly understand the American farmers.

是的，今天的中國確實極力避免發生戰爭，無論是熱戰還是經濟戰。這並不是因為我們軟弱，而是因為我們知道，我們為了今天的成就付出了多大的努力。特朗普永遠不會理解這一點，因為他生來就很富有。他永遠不會理解為得到某樣東西而努力工作是什麼感覺。這就是為什麼他不會理解中國人。這就是為什麼他不會真正理解美國農民的原因。