美國有敵人嗎？有！但不是中國，而是……_風聞

CNN網站5月26日刊登哥倫比亞大學經濟學教授、哈佛國際研究中心主任傑弗裏·薩克斯文章《美國經濟問題的根源不在於中國，而在於美國企業的貪婪》

文：Jeffrey Sachs

譯：馬力

中國不是美國的敵人。中國這個國家在努力通過教育、國際貿易、基礎設施投資和技術進步來提高國民生活水平。簡而言之，中國的所作所為，是任何一個積貧積弱的國家在那樣的歷史現實面前都應該做的。但現在特朗普政府卻把阻止中國發展作為目標，這對美國和全世界來説可能都將是一場災難。

美國國內的不平等現象日益突出，中國卻被當成了替罪羊。儘管多年以來，中美貿易關係一直是互惠的，然而由於中國生產率提高、勞動力成本相對較低，一些美國工人（尤其是中西部的那些工人）在與中國的激烈競爭中被拋在了後面。我們不應因為這種正常的市場競爭現象而指責中國，而應該對本國那些利潤飛漲的跨國公司徵税，利用這筆税金去幫助工薪階層，重建美國破敗的基礎設施，開展再就業培訓，以及增加尖端技術領域投資。

我們應該明白，中國經歷了長期的地緣政治挫敗和經濟政策失誤，它現在只是在努力彌補失去的時間。知道一點歷史背景有助於理解中國過去40年的經濟發展。

1839年，英國向中國發動了第一次鴉片戰爭，原因是中國拒絕英國商人繼續向中國人販賣具有成癮性的鴉片。1842年，英國贏得了那場戰爭，中國遭遇了恥辱性的失敗，這在一定程度上誘發了名為“太平天國”的大規模民間起義。太平天國運動導致2000萬人喪生。1856年，中國與英法兩國之間又爆發了第二次鴉片戰爭，其結果是中國的主權和國內穩定不斷遭受侵蝕。

19世紀末，中國在戰場上敗給了剛走上工業化道路的日本，又面臨歐洲和美國單方面提出的通商貿易要求。這些國恥激發了中國另一場民間起義，而它在外國列強的鎮壓下再次宣告失敗。

1911年，清王朝的歷史終於走向終結。中國很快進入了軍閥混戰的時代，國內衝突不斷。1931年，日本人開始侵略中國。第二次世界大戰結束後，中國陷入內戰，直到1949年，我們今天熟知的中華人民共和國才宣告成立。其後中國又經歷了大躍進和文革等一系列挫折，國家穩定受到大範圍衝擊。

1978年，鄧小平當政後掀起了席捲全國的經濟改革大潮，市場經濟快速發展起來。儘管四十年來中國實現了令人難以置信的高速增長，但百餘年來的貧窮困苦、社會動盪、民族屈辱和外敵入侵仍讓中國人記憶猶新。這一次，中國領導人將牢牢把握正確的方向，這就意味着他們不會再向美國或其他西方強國委曲求全。

以市場價格計算，如今的中國已經是全球第二大經濟體。即便如此，中國仍然處於脱貧致富的過程當中。國際貨幣基金組織的數據顯示，1980年中國人均GDP僅為美國的2.5%，到2018年這個比值也只是上升到15.3%。如果按照購買力平價標準——即以同一套“國際物價”衡量所有國家的GDP——計算，2018年中國人均GDP剛剛超過美國的28.9%。

中國大陸基本上沿襲了此前日本、韓國、新加坡以及香港和台灣地區的發展戰略。從經濟角度來看，對於一個追趕型的國家來説，中國並沒有做什麼反常的事。美國像念口頭禪一樣抱怨中國“竊取”了自己的技術。事實上，這種觀點把問題看得過於簡單了。

相對落後的國家實現技術升級的方式有很多，比如學習、模仿、購買、併購、外資，以及廣泛應用專利權到期的知識產權，當然也包括抄襲。在那些發展日新月異的技術領域，圍繞知識產權的爭奪總是難以避免的，甚至美國公司之間也是如此，這種競爭其實只是全球經濟體系日常運行的一部分而已。技術領域的高管們很清楚，不可能指望保護措施來維持自己的領先地位，必須不斷創新。

19世紀初，美國咬定英國不放鬆，吸取了大量技術。任何一個國家，只要它希望縮小與先進國家之間的技術差距，都必須吸收國外的技術。眾所周知，美國在二戰結束後招納了一批前納粹火箭專家，而美國的彈道導彈項目就是在他們的協助下完成的。

如果把中國換做另一個人口沒那麼多的亞洲國家，比如人口5000萬左右的韓國，它必然會被美國讚譽為一個偉大的發展奇蹟。當然中國的發展確實是偉大奇蹟，但由於中國體量太大，它的存在駁回了美國主導全世界的妄想。畢竟，美國人口僅佔全球人口的4.2%，還不到中國的四分之一。今天的現實情況是，隨着技術和知識以前所未見的高速度在全球擴散，不論美國還是中國都無法完全主導這個世界。

對華貿易為美國提供了大量的廉價中低端消費品以及質量越來越好的製成品。它也導致美國那些與中國存在直接競爭關係的產業工作崗位流失，比如製造業。然而這本是國際貿易的正常現象。給中國扣上“不公平貿易行為”的做法是錯誤的，因為眾多美國企業通過在華生產或對華出口獲得了大量利益。同時美國消費者也通過購買中國的廉價產品提高了自己的生活水平。中美兩國應當繼續協商，改善雙邊和多邊貿易規則，而不是單方面威脅發起貿易戰並給對方扣大帽子。

國際貿易理論、實踐和政策有個最基本耳朵原則，那就是不中斷貿易活動，因為一旦中斷將導致人民生活水平下降、經濟危機和國際衝突。我們應當互相分享經濟增長帶來的紅利。如此一來，貿易活動中的受益者可以為失利者提供某種補償。

但美國今天的資本主義制度早已偏離“羅斯福新政”所倡導的合作精神，在這樣的情況下，贏家斷然拒絕與他人分享自己的勝利果實。正因為缺乏共享，美國政治才會在貿易問題上如此矛盾深重。可以説，貪婪全面主導着華盛頓的政策。

美國真正的鬥爭對象不是中國，而是美國自己的那些大公司。其中許多公司的財富已經堆成了山，卻不讓自己的員工獲得體面的收入。美國企業領袖和富豪羣體積極推動減税、擴大壟斷並把製造業外包到勞動力成本低廉的國家，為了增加利潤他們無所不用其極，卻拒絕任何有助於促進美國社會公平的政策。

特朗普不斷打壓中國，他似乎以為中國會再度向西方強國屈服。美國蓄意擊垮華為等成功的中國企業，所以才會陡然發難，單方面改變國際貿易規則。過去40年以來，中國一直遵守着西方制定的遊戲規則，逐步實現經濟趕超，其做法跟美國的亞洲盟友們當年沒什麼區別。如今美國企圖發動一場新的冷戰，對中國釜底抽薪。

除非我們能拿出更高的智慧，否則美國可能會捲入對華衝突的泥潭。這場衝突將首先發生在經濟領域，然後擴散到地緣政治甚至軍事領域。這對所有人而言都是一場徹底的災難。但由於當下的美國政治極度膚淺和墮落，我們還是踏上了這條路。

對華貿易戰解決不了美國的經濟問題。正相反，我們應該在國內尋找解決方案：包括更實惠的醫療服務、更優質的教育、現代化的基礎設施、提高最低工資標準，以及打擊美國企業的貪婪。在這個過程中我們將認識到：美國與其魯莽地、不公平地挑釁中國，遠遠不如與之合作獲益更多。

China is not the source of our economic problems -- corporate greed is

China is not an enemy. It is a nation trying to raise its living standards through education, international trade, infrastructure investment, and improved technologies. In short, it is doing what any country should do when confronted with the historical reality of being poor and far behind more powerful countries. Yet the Trump administration is now aiming to stop China’s development, which could prove to be disastrous for both the United States and the entire world.

China is being made a scapegoat for rising inequality in the United States. While US trade relations with China have been mutually beneficial over the years, some US workers have been left behind, notably Midwestern factory workers facing competition due to rising productivity and comparatively low (though rising) labor costs in China. Instead of blaming China for this normal phenomenon of market competition, we should be taxing the soaring corporate profits of our own multinational corporations and using the revenues to help working-class households, rebuild crumbling infrastructure, promote new job skills and invest in cutting-edge science and technology.

We should understand that China is merely trying to make up for lost time after a very long period of geopolitical setbacks and related economic failures. Here is important historical background that is useful to understand China’s economic development in the past 40 years.

In 1839, Britain attacked China because it refused to allow British traders to continue providing Chinese people with addictive opium. Britain prevailed, and the humiliation of China’s defeat in the First Opium War, ending in 1842, contributed in part to a mass uprising against the Qing Dynasty called the Taiping Rebellion that ended up causing more than 20 million deaths. A Second Opium War against Britain and France ultimately led to the continued erosion of China’s power and internal stability.

Toward the end of the 19th century, China lost a war to the newly industrializing Japan, and was subjected to yet more one-sided demands by Europe and the United States for trade. These humiliations led to another rebellion, followed by yet another defeat, at the hands of foreign powers.

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China’s Qing Dynasty fell in 1911, after which China quickly succumbed to warlords, internal strife and Japan’s invasion of China beginning in 1931. The end of World War II was followed by civil war, the creation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and then the upheavals of Maoism, including millions of deaths from famine in the Great Leap Forward, which ended in the early 1960s, and the mass destabilization of the Cultural Revolution and its aftermath until 1977.

China’s rapid development on a market basis therefore started only in 1978, when Deng Xiaoping came to power and launched sweeping economic reforms. While China has seen incredible growth in the past four decades, the legacy of more than a century of poverty, instability, invasion and foreign threats still looms large. Chinese leaders would like to get things right this time, and that means they are unwilling to bow to the United States or other Western powers again.

China is now the second-largest economy in the world, when GDP is measured at market prices. Yet it is a country still in the process of catching up from poverty. In 1980, according to IMF data, China’s GDP per capita was a mere 2.5% of the United States, and by 2018 had reached only 15.3% of the US level. When GDP is measured in purchasing-power-parity terms, by using a common set of “international prices” to value GDP in all countries, China’s income per capita in 2018 was a bit higher at 28.9% of the United States.

China has roughly followed the same development strategy as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore before it. From an economic standpoint, it is not doing anything particularly unusual for a country that is playing catch up.The constant US refrain that China “steals” technologies is highly simplistic.

Countries that are lagging behind upgrade their technologies in many ways, through study, imitation, purchases, mergers, foreign investments, extensive use of off-patent knowledge and, yes, copying. And with any fast-changing technologies, there are always running battles over intellectual property. That’s true even among US companies today -- this kind of competition is simply a part of the global economic system. Technology leaders know they shouldn’t count on keeping their lead through protection, but through continued innovation.

The United States relentlessly adopted British technologies in the early 19th century. And when any country wants to close a technology gap, it recruits know-how from abroad. The US ballistic missile program, as it is well known, was built with the help of former Nazi rocket scientists recruited to the United States after World War II.

If China were a less populous Asian country, say like South Korea, with a little more than 50 million people, it would simply be hailed by the United States as a great development success story -- which it is. But because it is so big, China refutes America’s pretensions to run the world. The United States, after all, is a mere 4.2% of the world’s population, less than a fourth of China’s. The truth is that neither country is in a position to dominate the world today, as technologies and know-how are spreading more quickly across the globe than ever before.

Trade with China provides the United States with low-cost consumer goods and increasingly high-quality products. It also causes job losses in sectors such as manufacturing that compete directly with China. That is how trade works. To accuse China of unfairness in this is wrong -- plenty of American companies have reaped the benefits of manufacturing in China or exporting goods there. And US consumers enjoy higher living standards as a result of China’s low-cost goods. The US and China should continue to negotiate and develop improved rules for bilateral and multilateral trade instead of stoking a trade war with one-sided threats and over-the-top accusations.

The most basic lesson of trade theory, practice and policy is not to stop trade -- which would lead to falling living standards, economic crisis and conflict. Instead, we should share the benefits of economic growth so that the winners who benefit compensate the losers.

Yet under American capitalism, which has long strayed from the cooperative spirit of the New Deal era, today’s winners flat-out reject sharing their winnings. As a result of this lack of sharing, American politics are fraught with conflicts over trade. Greed comprehensively dominates Washington policies.

The real battle is not with China but with America’s own giant companies, many of which are raking in fortunes while failing to pay their own workers decent wages. America’s business leaders and the mega-rich push for tax cuts, more monopoly power and offshoring -- anything to make a bigger profit -- while rejecting any policies to make American society fairer.

Trump is lashing out against China, ostensibly believing that it will once again bow to a Western power. It is willfully trying to crush successful companies like Huawei by changing the rules of international trade abruptly and unilaterally. China has been playing by Western rules for the past 40 years, gradually catching up the way that America’s Asian allies did in the past. Now the United States is trying to pull the rug out from under China by launching a new Cold War.

Unless some greater wisdom prevails, we could spin toward conflict with China, first economically, then geopolitically and militarily, with utter disaster for all. There will be no winners in such a conflict. Yet such is the profound shallowness and corruption of US politics today that we are on such a path.

A trade war with China won’t solve our economic problems. Instead we need homegrown solutions: affordable health care, better schools, modernized infrastructure, higher minimum wages and a crackdown on corporate greed. In the process, we would also learn that we have far more to gain through cooperation with China rather than reckless and unfair provocation.