美前財長：説中國“匯率操縱”？這是在砸自家招牌_風聞

美前財長：説中國“匯率操縱”？這是在砸自家招牌來源：中國日報

當地時間8月6日，美國前財政部長、哈佛大學前校長勞倫斯•薩默斯（Lawrence Summers）在《華盛頓郵報》撰文稱，美國財政部長斯蒂芬·姆努欽（Steven Mnuchin）將中國列為“匯率操縱國”，明顯是順應其“老闆”的政策，不僅損害了自己的信譽，更損害了美國財政部的公信力。

美國前財政部長、哈佛大學前校長勞倫斯•薩默斯

華盛頓郵報：宣稱中國是“匯率操縱國”，姆努欽損害了自己的信譽

美國財政部長斯蒂芬·姆努欽

北京時間8月6日，美國財長姆努欽將中國列為“匯率操縱國”，並稱他會請求國際貨幣基金組織進行干預。

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday named China a currency manipulator … and said he would ask the International Monetary Fund to intervene.

姆努欽曾明確表示他這是在執行特朗普總統的命令，此前中國央行允許其貨幣貶值超過2%，使得美元兑人民幣匯率“破7”，超出美國重要的心理防線。

Mnuchin made clear he was doing President Trump’s bidding after the Chinese central bank allowed its currency to decline by more than 2 percent below the psychologically important level of seven yuan, or renminbi, to the dollar.

“匯率操縱”的帽子不是説安在中國頭上就能安在中國頭上的。

我們先來看看什麼是“匯率操縱”？薩默斯在文章中解釋了“匯率操縱”的概念：

如果某個國家干預外匯市場，以壓低其貨幣幣值的方式促進出口、阻礙進口，其效果就跟對進口產品徵收關税、向出口產品提供補貼一樣。特別值得注意的是，此前被視為匯率操縱國的國家，普遍會出現大量貿易順差。

When a country intervenes in the foreign-exchange market to depress its currency so as to promote exports and discourage imports, something equivalent to imposing tariffs on imports and providing subsidies to exports is happening. This is especially of concern when, as in the case of countries previously deemed manipulators, a country is running a substantial trade surplus.

那麼，中國符合“匯率操縱國”的情況嗎？薩默斯給出明確的答案——中國並非如此！

中國並不符合上述情況。

China does not come close to fitting this template.

薩默斯在文章中給出了詳細的理由，跟CD君一起來看看吧。

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中國主動調整貿易順差

過去八年時間，為應對來自美國的壓力，中國已將貿易順差從GDP佔比8%以上降低至基本為0。過去幾年，中國始終秉承支撐性的貨幣政策，對貨幣市場的調控一直是保持幣值穩定，而非降低幣值。

Over the past eight years, it has reduced its trade surplus from more than 8 percent of GDP to essentially zero in response to U.S. pressure. Its interventions in currency markets over the past several years have been to prop up its currency rather than to drive it down.

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近期人民幣匯率下跌並非人為

8月6日，人民幣匯率下跌並非人為操縱，而是市場對新加徵的美國關税的自然反應。

And the move down in the yuan on Monday was not artificial — it was an entirely natural market response to newly imposed U.S. tariffs.

沒有商品優勢，努力保持匯率，從而提高出口價格、降低進口價格，如此一來，宣稱“匯率操縱”沒有任何可靠依據。

Without some mercantile advantage, and with ongoing efforts to prop up the exchange rate and so raise export prices and reduce import prices, there is no credible manipulation claim here.

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如此“貼標籤”顯然是自毀門庭

給匯率變動貼上“中國操縱”的標籤，顯然是姆努欽“順應自己老闆（指美國總統）心意的決策”，而他這樣做不僅損害了自己的信譽，更是損害了美國財政部的公信力。這樣一來，在下一個財政困難時期，財政部的聲明將更難得到市場參與者的信任。

By labeling as Chinese currency manipulation an exchange-rate move that was obviously a natural response to his boss’s policies, the secretary has damaged his credibility and that of his office. It will be harder now in the next difficult financial moment for Treasury Department pronouncements to be credited by market participants.

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結果只會讓全球看笑話

美國把中國列為“匯率操縱國”，全球都會關注美國會不會迫使或是如何迫使中國改變匯率政策。如果中國不發生改變，這隻會向中國和全世界展示美國有多無能。這樣的行為怎麼能是可取的呢？

Having seen the United States label China a manipulator, the world will wonder whether and how the United States will get China to change its exchange-rate policies. If Chinese policies do not change, we will have only demonstrated our impotence to China and the world. Why is that desirable?

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美國面臨金融危機以來最高的經濟風險

此外，總統肆無忌憚地口出狂言，財政部長現在也成了“幫兇”，這讓企業和消費者變得恐懼，延緩開支，可能會因此導致真正的經濟損失。

Further, the president’s flailing bluster, in which the treasury secretary is now a full participant, risks real economic damage as businesses and consumers become fearful and hold off on spending.

人們越來越擔心，隨着外匯市場的發展，美國會向中國徵收更多關税，或者開始購買人民幣外匯儲備。最近幾天，市場的反應拉響了警報，投資者湧向債券、黃金甚至比特幣等避險資產，拋出股票和企業貸款等風險較高的資產。從2008年金融危機以來，目前經濟衰退的風險可能是最高的。

There is a growing concern that exchange-market developments will be an excuse for yet more tariffs against China, or for the United States to start buying up Chinese currency. Markets in recent days have reacted in ways suggesting high alarm, with investors flooding into safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold and even bitcoin and flooding out of riskier assets such as stocks and loans to businesses. The risk of recession going forward might now be as high as any time since the 2008 financial crisis.

五點理由，有理有據，如此苦口婆心地勸阻！美國難道還要繼續這種搬起石頭砸自己腳的無理指控嗎？