低油價對特斯拉不利嗎?_風聞

【來源龍騰網】正文原創翻譯：

Are low oil prices bad for Tesla?

低油價對特斯拉不利嗎?

原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：遼闊天空 轉載請註明出處

Ron Rule, CEO @ As Seen On TV

No, low oil prices are actually GOOD for Tesla and for EV’’s in general. 

The reason most people aren’’t buying EV’’s has nothing to do with gas prices, it has to do with range.

Thus, for most people, an EV is their second or third vehicle in their collection. It may very well be the one they drive to the office every day, but it’’s rarely their only car, because few people are willing to have their only vehicle limited by a maximum daily range. 

Lower fuel costs frees up capital that can be allocated to a second vehicle. At one point, when I lived quite a bit further from the office than I do now, I was spending about $600 per month on fuel between my getting to work every day and my wife running around doing things with the kids. If that ongoing fuel cost were reduced, we could have easily made our second vehicle an EV, but with costs what they were - both fuel and the EV costs - it wouldn’’t have made sense.

不，低油價實際上對特斯拉和電動汽車都有好處。

大多數人不買電動汽車的原因與汽油價格無關，而與行駛里程有關。

因此，對大多數人來説，電動汽車是他們收藏的第二輛或第三輛車。很可能是他們每天開車去上班的地方，但很少是他們唯一的車，因為很少有人願意把他們唯一的車輛限制在每天的最大行駛里程範圍內。

較低的燃料成本釋放了可分配給第二輛車的資金。有一次，當我住得比離現在的辦公室遠一點的時候，從每天上班到妻子帶着孩子四處奔波，我每個月都要花600美元買燃料。如果持續的燃料成本降低，我們可以在輕鬆地購買第二輛車時選擇電動汽車，但如果成本與實際成本（燃料成本和電動汽車成本）持平，那就沒有意義了。

I actually did the math. At 2007 fuel and EV prices, I would have to have driven that EV 327,000 miles to break even on fuel savings. 

I still wanted an EV though, just because I’’m an auto buff and technology geek, and it’’s the perfect manifestation of both. And since I’’m also on a perpetual quest to be Batman in real life, in 2011 I decided to build my own. Four years later, here is the end result:

Believe it or not, what you’’re looking at was once a 1968 Volkswagen Beetle. Today, it’’s powered by a series wound DC motor and 38 lithium phosphate batteries, has a range of around 90 miles, and does 0-60 in about 3 seconds. No doors, hydraulic top that opens and closes with a keyless entry button, and painted Satin Black. 

Total cost was about $20,000 - more than I would ever have spent on fuel in a Beetle, that’’s for sure.

Fuel costs aren’’t why people go electric. Performance, Eco-friendliness, and being a part of an emerging technology is. For Tesla, they’’re targeting an audience who would otherwise buy a Jaguar XJ or BMW 7 series. This isn’’t a group that cares about the cost to fill the tank. 

But for everyone else, low fuel prices get them closer to being able to afford to go electric.

我真的計算過了。以2007年的燃油和電動汽車價格計算，我必須開32.7萬英里的電動汽車才能在節約的燃油方面與實現收支平衡。

 但我仍然想要一輛電動汽車，僅僅因為我自身是一個汽車愛好和技術宅的完美追求者。其實我2011年在追求成為現實生活中的蝙蝠俠，於是我決定建立自己造一個蝙蝠俠。四年後出來的結果是：信不信由你，如今你看到的是一輛1968年產的大眾甲殼蟲。它由一個串聯直流電動機和38節磷酸鋰電池供電，續航里程約為90英里，在3秒鐘內完成0-60英里。沒有門，液壓方式從頂部打開和關閉與無鑰匙進入按鈕，車身並被塗上緞黑色油漆。總成本約為20000美元——這是肯定的，比我在甲殼蟲上花在燃料上的錢還多。

燃料成本不是人們用電的原因。性能、環保以及成為使用新興技術等等這些才是用電的原因。對於特斯拉來説，他們瞄準的是那些原本會購買捷豹XJ或寶馬7系的消費者。這不是一個關心燃油成本的羣體。

但對其他有些人人來説，低油價使他們在燃油上的消耗就更接近能夠負擔得起的電力消耗了。

Joe Philleo, former Product Manager at Citizen (2018-2019)

As Ian McCullough, Joseph Boyle, and Joan Hoffman have pointed out, Tesla sells high-end, high-priced cars. The amount of money spent on gas probably isn’’t a legitimate consideration for a lot of the buyers.

But, that doesn’’t mean low oil prices don’’t affect Tesla; the issue is branding. No matter how rich you are, you probably know the price of gas. It’’s literally posted everywhere: the news, the radio, every street, every gas station, and lately every other news article. Whether it affects your wallet or not, you know the price of gas because that price is culturally influential. And, the rich - like everyone else - are suckers for what’’s popular.

When the price of oil is high, that cultural influence works towards Tesla’’s (and other electric/clean energy company’’s) benefit. There’’s just relatively more public interest in electric cars, smart cars, hybrids, etc [1]. That public interest translates into news, articles, and conversations. Clean becomes cool. Demand for Tesla cars increases. The more status-minded the rich (China), the more influential the cultural perception of gas prices will be. 

Similarly, if gas prices drop, Tesla loses some of that free publicity and extra “cool” factor. However, by this point a lot of Tesla’’s value is beyond just the electric aspect. It’’s “ludicrous” acceleration, sleek designs, and constant innovation are all very strong selling points that are probably making gas prices less and less relevant to its branding.

In conclusion, I’’m hesitant to assert that low gas prices will necessarily be “bad” or even significant for Tesla. Still, little good comes out of cheap gas for a prolonged period.

正如伊恩·麥卡洛(Ian McCullough)、約瑟夫·博伊爾(Joseph Boyle)和瓊·霍夫曼(Joan Hoffman)所指出的那樣，特斯拉定位的是高端高價車。對很多買家來説，花在汽油上的錢可能不是一個必要的考慮因素。

但是，這並不意味着低油價不會影響特斯拉;問題在於宣傳。不管你有多富有，你可能會關注汽油的價格。到處都有它的信息:新聞，廣播，每條街道，每一個加油站，最近每一篇新聞文章。不管它是否會影響你的錢包，你都知道汽油的價格，因為這個價格具有必然的影響力。而且，富人和其他人一樣，都喜歡最新信息。

當油價高企時，這會對特斯拉(以及其他電力/清潔能源公司)的利益產生必然影響。這時公眾對電動汽車、智能汽車、混合動力汽車等的興趣相對更大。公眾的視線會隨着新聞、雜誌和相互交流對話，清潔而又環保等信息而轉移。富人(中國)的地位越高，對油價的認知就越有影響力，對特斯拉汽車的需求增加。

同樣，如果油價下跌，特斯拉也會失去一些免費宣傳和額外的宣傳優勢。不過，到目前為止，特斯拉的傳遞的價值已經遠遠超出了電力方面。它的“受稱讚的”加速度、時尚的設計和不斷的創新都是非常強大的賣點，這可能使汽油價格與它的品牌越來越不相關。

總之，我不確定低油價對特斯拉來説一定是“壞的”甚至是有重要影響力的。儘管如此，在未來很長一段時間內，廉價的天然氣也不會帶來什麼好處。

​