日本網友熱議棄美盟中，外國網友：醒一醒，兄弟！_風聞

近日，有知名論壇網站“ 5ch”上，有日本網友提出了這樣一個問題：

在不久的將來，如果日本離開美國軌道，與中國結成更緊密聯盟的可能性有多大？

對此，各國網友表達了各自的看法。

1、Scavenger

In the near future? I don’t see it happening within 100 years!

不久的將來？我想100年內不會發生！

For Japan:

日本：

Japanese people’s view of China for the past 100 years range anywhere from outright hostile to incredibly suspicious. Even in the wake of Xi-Abe meetings in 2018, a whooping 78% of the Japanese surveyed held a negative view of China, the highest among other countries surveyed.

過去100年來，日本人對中國的看法從完全敵視到令人難以置信的懷疑，不一而足，即使在2018年中日會議之後，78% 的日本受訪者對中國持負面看法，在接受調查的其他國家中，這一比例是最高的。

The Japanese are, on average, very supportive of the US-Japan alliance.China still hates Japan for WWII, and most people don’t want to see their country allying with the country that committed the Nanjing Massacre.

一般而言，日本人非常支持美日同盟。中國仍然因為二戰而憎恨日本，而且大多數人不希望看到他們的國家和發動南京大屠殺的國家結盟。

Japan is one of the countries with the highest negative perception of China in the world, losing out only to Vietnam and Mongolia (probably)

日本是世界上對中國負面印象最深的國家之一，僅次於越南和蒙古( 可能 )。

For America:

美國：

Most Americans strongly support American interference and involvement on every continent of the earth. For America to lose its number one ally in East Asia would mean a huge blow to American pride. Any president that allows this to happen would either be impeached or violently thrown out of the White House.

大多數美國人強烈支持美國干涉和介入地球上的每一塊大陸，對美國來説，失去其在東亞的頭號盟友將意味着對美國自豪感的巨大打擊，任何允許這種情況發生的總統要麼被彈劾，要麼被暴力趕出白宮。

America does not want to see a strong China, either militarily or economically. This is the reason why America refused to back China’s OBOR, and why America intentionally created the Trans-Pacific Partnership just to ignore China; America is doing what it can to contain the rise of China, not support it.

美國不希望看到一個強大的中國，無論是軍事上還是經濟上。這就是為什麼美國拒絕支持中國的 OBOR（一帶一路?），也是為什麼美國有意創建跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協議，就是為了噁心中國，美國正在盡其所能遏制中國的崛起，而不是支持它。

America is trying to form very strong ties with all countries surrounding China, not just Japan, but also Philippines and Vietnam (the former being an enemy country not too long ago). Losing a valuable ally like Japan would make both the Philippines and Vietnam question the competency of American foreign affairs.

美國正試圖與中國周邊的所有國家建立非常牢固的聯繫，不僅僅是日本，還有菲律賓和越南 ( 不久前還是敵國 )。失去像日本這樣寶貴的盟友，將使菲律賓和越南都對美國外交事務的能力提出質疑。

2、Miyu Takahashi

Requested by Hatton Nicholas.“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests”.-Henry Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston Japan is the MOST important U.S.

國與國之間沒有永久的朋友或盟友，只有永久的利益 ——亨利·坦普爾，第三代帕默斯頓子爵，日本是美國在亞洲最重要的合作伙伴。

partner in Asia. Japan has been considered as an important part for the American world order in Asia since the end of the Second World War, and is the reason why U.S. intervened in the Korean War and the Vietnam war is the fear of a communist Japan which can easily block America’’s movement in Asia.

自第二次世界大戰結束以來，日本一直被認為是美國在亞洲世界秩序的重要組成部分，也是美國介入朝鮮戰爭和越南戰爭的原因，因為美國害怕共產主義的日本可以輕易地阻止美國在亞洲的行動。

Even after the Cold War, the Japan-U.S. mutual security treaty is very important for U.S. vision for Asia, in which the Japanese are very eager collaborators. The U.S. also gives intelligence and information regarding world affairs to Japan.Oh, and Japan is the most generous nation with paying the cost of an American military presence, paying 75% of the share. Japan is a nation the United States must consider in their policy-making in Asia.

即使在冷戰結束後，日美共同安全條約對於美國的亞洲願景也是非常重要的，在亞洲，日本人是非常熱切的合作者。美國還向日本提供有關世界事務的情報和信息。哦，日本也是最慷慨的國家，支付了美國軍事存在的75%費用，日本是美國在亞洲制定政策時必須考慮的國家。

I do see the relationship with China getting better to a degree. However, it’’s very unlikely that the relationship with China will ever reach this degree of closeness. apan and China have viewed each other as adversaries with heavy distrust of one another, but they cooperate nonetheless because of strong economic lixs.

據我的觀察，日本與中國的關係在一定程度上確實有所改善，然而，與中國的關係還不太可能達到如此密切的程度。日本和中國一直將對方視為彼此高度不信任的對手，但由於經濟聯繫密切，兩國仍進行合作。

3、Masao Miwa

Maybe not in the near future, but as Japan gets stronger militarily and her trade relations with China improves, there is a chance, especially if the US continues its isolationist stance. Japan, like China depends on trade and today, many Japanese companies depend on Japanese companies manufacturing in China and also selling to the Chinese domestic market. 20% of Japan’s trade is with China and if Hong Kong is counted as China, trade is 25%. Japan also seems to be sliding into BRI quietly though the US cautioned Japan not to do so.

也許在不久的將來不會，但隨着日本軍事實力的增強以及與中國貿易關係的改善，是有機會的，特別是如果美國繼續其孤立主義立場的話。日本和中國一樣依賴貿易，今天，許多日本公司依賴於在中國製造產品，也向中國國內市場銷售產品。日本與中國的貿易佔20%，如果把中國香港也算進來的話，則佔到了25%，日本似乎也在悄悄地進入“一帶一路”，儘管美國警告日本不要這麼做。

My opinion: Trade is the cornerstone for Japan’s economic survival and looking at the future, the rising Chinese economy is posing a strong lure for Japan in the future. Japan also is increasing its investment in the BRI and that helps Japan with its soft power as it does with China in completing infrastructure in under developed countries.

我的觀點是：貿易是日本經濟生存的基石，展望未來，中國經濟的崛起對日本未來構成了強大的誘惑力。日本也在加大對“一帶一路”的投資，這有助於加強日本的軟實力，比如日本與中國一起完成欠發達國家的基礎設施建設一樣。

4、Sayak Biswas

You serious bro?

你認真的嗎，兄弟？

As per an index by Pew Research Centre this year, Japan has the highest percentage of anti-Chinese sentiment

根據皮尤研究中心今年發佈的一項指數，日本的反華情緒佔比是最高的。

While India’s mistrust towards China and it’s aiding of Pakistan is too well-known, however Japan is on a whole new level. And apparently this feeling is mutual. About 75% Chinese have a negative opinion of Japan, while in most other nations the positive ones outweigh the negative ones.

雖然印度對中國的不信任以及中國對巴基斯坦的援助是眾所周知的，但是日本卻在一個全新的層面上，顯然，這種感覺是相互的，大約75% 的中國人對日本持負面看法，而在其他大多數國家，正面看法多於負面看法。

Now such a thing has historical leanings to this, and as most know, is often very controversial and something that encompasses a lot of politics and so. This I guess you might know of too well, most are related to World War 2.

這其中有歷史的傾向，正如大多數人所知道的，通常非常有爭議，它包含了很多政治因素，我想你應該能理解，大多數都與第二次世界大戰有關。

On the other hand, Americans are pretty much responsible for security of this region where coincidentally Japan is also present, and therefore finds far more support from Japanese people and administration. Also since Americans have a common enemy in Japan’s arch-nemesis i.e. North Korea, so you know well why Japan is so much pro-America.

此外，美國人對這一地區的安全負有相當大的責任，巧合的是，日本也在這一地區，因此美國人從日本人民和政府那裏得到了更多的支持，而且由於與美國人有一個共同的敵人，那就是日本的宿敵——朝鮮，所以很清楚為什麼日本這麼親美。

5、Lynn Fredricks

Japan and China have their own special relationship that doesn’t include the USA, but it would not be the same were the USA not around.But it isn’t going to change in the near future. No matter what their respective governments try to accomplish, there is simply too much generational hatred in China for Japan for the relationship to be that close.

日本和中國有他們自己的特殊關係，但是無法排除美國的存在，如果沒有美國就不一樣了。在不久的將來，這種情況不會改變，無論兩國政府試圖實現什麼樣的目標，兩國關係都不會太過親密，因為中國對日本存在太多的世代仇恨。

This isn’t a matter just for the grandmas and grandpas in China to wrestle with, because those that haven’t come to terms with it have passed it along to the next generation. In fact, many grandmas and grandpas, as well as some untouched by it have a great deal of interest in Japan, judging by the decades of cultural exchange as well as the more recent explosion of tourism from China to Japan.

這不僅僅是中國的爺爺奶奶們要面對的問題，因為那些還沒有接受這個問題的人已經把它傳給了下一代。事實上，從數十年的文化交流以及最近從中國到日本旅遊的爆炸式增長來看，許多老奶奶、老爺爺以及一些沒有受到日本影響的人對日本有着極大的興趣。

The Japanese government understands that their relationship with the United States is absolutely critical and will be for many more decades, especially as China comes to terms with its own transformation.This also doesn’t stop Japan from having relationships with countries that are seemingly enemies of the United States or, only have relationships with other countries by way of the relationship with the United States. Japan actually has its own relationships with both of the Iran, for example.

日本政府明白，他們與美國的關係是絕對關鍵的，而且還將持續幾十年，尤其是在中國開始適應自身轉型之時。這也不能阻止日本與那些看起來是美國敵人的國家建立關係，或者只通過美國與其他國家建立關係，例如，日本實際上與伊朗保持關係。

6、Xiao Wen

This is going to be a great thing.

這將是一件大事。

Regarding the relationship between Japan and China, one of the biggest obstacles is the dark history of the two countries in WWII. This wound cannot be healed precisely because of the decades-long US control over Japan after the war and the protection of Japanese war criminals on the battlefield in East Asia.

關於日本和中國的關係，最大的障礙之一是二戰期間兩國的黑暗歷史，這個傷口無法癒合，恰恰是因為戰後美國對日本長達數十年的控制，以及在東亞戰場上對日本戰犯的保護。

This is an important tool for the United States to control Japan and harm East Asian unity.If Japan and South Korea can break away from the control of the United States and strive to form an East Asian Economic Community, then everything will be bright.

這是美國控制日本，損害東亞團結的重要工具。如果日本和韓國能夠擺脱美國的控制，努力形成東亞經濟共同體，那麼一切都將是光明的。

We have lived on the land of East Asia for thousands of years, and we hope Americans get out of here.

我們在東亞這塊土地上生活了幾千年，我們希望美國人離開這裏。

7、Glenn Lee

It would be most beneficial for China, South Korea, and Japan to form a trade organization similar to the EU. With time the organization may be political. With closer trade relationship, the countries can trust each other more and military antagonism will decrease. Japan’s relationship with the US may be less dependent.

對中國、韓國和日本來説，組建一個類似歐盟的貿易組織最為有利。隨着時間的推移，這個組織可能是政治性的。隨着兩國貿易關係的日益密切，兩國可以相互信任，軍事對抗也將減少。日本對美國的關係可能不那麼依賴。

In fact, the relationship between Japan and China is not always as bad as others have described. From the Tang Dynasty more than a thousand years ago to the end of the Song Dynasty, Japan has always been the most loyal student in China!

事實上，日中關係並不總是像別人描述的那樣糟糕。從一千多年前的唐朝到宋末，日本一直是中國最忠誠的學生！

At that time, China was the political, economic and cultural center of the whole East Asia, while Japan and North Korea acted as admirers and followers of Chinese civilization!

當時，中國是整個東亞的政治、經濟和文化中心，而日本和朝鮮則是中華文明的仰慕者和追隨者！

This kind of classical servant relationship lasted for more than a thousand years, until more than a hundred years ago, because of the aggression of western countries, it was declared to end. Do you understand? One side is more than 1000 years, the other side is more than 100 years!

這種古典僕從關係持續了一千多年，一直到最近一百多年前，才因為西方國家的侵略，而宣告終結，看明白了嗎？一邊是一千多年，一邊是一百多年！

毫不諱言，對於網友“ Glenn Lee”的想法與倡議，老鐵是表示贊同的：

對中國、韓國和日本來説，組建一個類似歐盟的貿易組織最為有利。隨着時間的推移，這個組織可能是政治性的。隨着兩國貿易關係的日益密切，兩國可以相互信任，軍事對抗也將減少。

雖然，從現階段的國際關係來看這樣的倡議還只是一種美好的期待，但是正如其後面所提及的歷史反問一樣：

一邊是一千多年，一邊是一百多年

不要説時移世易，要知道日本遣唐臣服之前，同樣叫囂“東天皇敬白西皇帝”，而一場“白江口之戰”，讓他老老實實的做了600年的學生。