Robin Daverman 關於新冠病毒問題謠言的最新回答_風聞

背景：Robin Daverman是國外知乎Quora網站上高分答主，據傳他|她曾經於上世紀就讀於南開大學。是Quora上少有的中國通，其回答涵蓋各個領域，用語簡潔明瞭、邏輯嚴謹清晰，每一篇回答都數據詳實、行文流暢，顯示其強大的分析、歸納和表達能力。我常常把其回答當作英文範文閲讀，所以每次翻譯都將其英文回答一併奉上。

Robin Daverman, International traveler

Answered 8h ago

Nassim Taleb said about Coronavirus outbreak “without extreme paranoia, we can’t survive. Ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems.” What is your view on this?

問題：Nassim Taleb對新冠病毒爆發評價到：“如果沒有絕對的偏執，我們無法生存。遍歷性（Ergodicity 數學術語，大神可以解釋，我查了沒看懂）要求在出現破產問題的情況下，忽略成本效益。”你的觀點是什麼？

（譯者的個人觀點是吐槽掉書袋、不説英語的這些“專家”。此外，《只有偏執狂才能生存》是IBM傳奇總裁，安德魯.格魯夫1996年出版的經典管理書籍，鄙視用別人的話不註明出處的人。注：Nassim Taleb是一位美籍黎巴嫩作家、風投人，不想給他做廣告所以不放圖。）

原答案如下：

呃…他要賣書，一本關於財務管理中"去槓桿"風險的書。他是金融背景的專家，他不瞭解生物科技或公共健康的任何事情。

Meh he’s trying to sell his book, which is about deleveraging risks in financial management. That’s his background. He doesn’t know anything about biology or public health.

而且他的第一句話惹我發笑。 我是説假如你是一名生物學家，那麼你要想清楚，“我們”是誰？在這個地球上有如此多種類的生物頑強地生存了下來，它們中的很多並沒有可被識別的意識，更別提“絕對的偏執”了。打個比方，香蕉。（如果大神看港片，我覺得他在罵人）也許Taleb教授口袋裏有一個非常偏執的香蕉活了下來，而沒有絕對偏執的香蕉死掉了？基本上，這個人想對疫苗加強針可控的流感“絕對偏執”。

The first sentence makes me laugh though. I mean if you are a biologist, then you have to wonder, who’s “we”? There are so many, many, many species on earth that are surviving robustly, without even having a discernible consciousness, let alone “extreme paranoia”. For example, banana. Maybe Professor Taleb has an extremely paranoid banana in his pocket that’s surviving, and those not-paranoid bananas, not surviving? The dude wants to go “extreme paranoia” over what’s essentially a flu with booster-pack.

哦，不，我錯了。他不是想對疫苗加強針可控的流感“絕對偏執”，他只是希望你們買書。你知道一個真正的“絕對偏執狂”會做什麼嗎？他不會有上網發推特的時間。他會為自己和家人買齊所有的裝備：N95口罩（一天換4次）、防護服（一天兩件）、消毒劑（一天一次），備上至少一年半的儲備食物（這是一次全球性瘟疫持續的最短時間），找到一個最遠的小屋安頓下來。他會和自己的全家帶上所有裝備和物資，加上水、電、暖氣、其他必需品，然後縮在小屋裏一年半。這才是一個貨真價實的絕對偏執狂會做的事。他（Dr Taleb）在做這些嗎？沒有？看吧，他只是想讓你們買書並且訂閲推特賬號。

But no, I was wrong. He doesn’t want to go “extreme paranoia” himself. He just wants you to buy his book. Do you know what an “extreme paranoid” will do? He wouldn’t have the time to tweet on the internet. He’d find the remotest cabin he can find, buy up N95 face masks (4 a day per person), body protection (2 a day per person), disinfectant (once a day) for himself and his whole family, enough supply for at least a year and a half (which is how long the worldwide flu epidemic will last, at least). He’d move his whole family, all that supplies, plus food, water, heating, essentials, and hole up there for the next year and a half. That would be what a real “extremely paranoid” person would do. Is he doing that? No? See, he just wants you to buy his book and follow his tweets.

所以你現在知道為何貓會一直無視人們説的話啦——“因為大部分時候，人們講的都是廢話。”但是如果一條狗叫了，那麼貓就會立刻有反應！（我覺得大神@所有人，可是還是讀得很高興怎麼破！）你看吧，這就是人和狗之間存在的所謂“公信力差距”。這和你所説的內容無關，和你的所作所為有關。如果Taleb教授的話，即使只對全球1%的人有像狗對貓這樣的公信力，那麼所有的超市都會被買空，Walgreens/CVS/沃爾瑪都會被買空，全球的城市房地產價格會直線墜落。因為啊，誰會想在傳染病爆發期住在摩肩擦踵的地方，真可笑！

So now you know why cats ignore whatever people say all the time - ’cause most of what people say are BS anyway. But a dog bark, that’s what a cat will react immediately! See, that’s what a “credibility gap” looks like, between humans and dogs. It’s not about what you say, but about what you do. If Professor Taleb has the kind of credibility dogs have with cats, even if with only 1% of the population, all the grocery stores would be emptied out, Walgreens/CVS/Walmart would be emptied out, real estate market in all the cities would be dropping like a rock instantaneously, ’cause who would want to rub shoulders with other people during an infectious disease outbreak, LOL!

譯者説：最近朋友圈很多人傳各種外國專家的誇張數據，其實老祖宗早就告訴我們了，一個人的基本品質和其學位多少沒有關係，反而知識越多、算計越多。大家不用迷信國外啊，有時候，翻個白眼就行了。

仗義每多屠狗輩，負心多是讀書人 ——明 曹學佺

避席畏聞文字獄 ，著書都為稻粱謀 ——清 龔自珍《詠史》