韓國的人均GDP有可能在未來10-20年內超過日本嗎?_風聞

【來源龍騰網】

正文原創翻譯：

Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan’’s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years? If it’s not possible, under which conditions could South Korea overtake the Japanese economy in GDP per capita?

韓國的人均GDP有可能在未來10-20年內超過日本嗎?如果不可能，在什麼情況下韓國的人均GDP能超過日本?

評論翻譯：

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錨點Glenn Luk, B.S. Economics & Computer Science, University of Pennsylvania

upxed Mar 10, 2016

Originally Answered: Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan’’s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years?

By some measures, South Korea has already more or less caught up to Japan:

Per capita GDP (PPP): Japan is around $37k, South Korea is around $35k

Per capita GDP (nominal): Japan is listed between $33-36k, South Korea is around $28k

Human Development Index: South Korea (0.898) is slightly ahead of Japan (0.891)

Bloomberg Innovation Index: South Korea placed #1 while Japan placed #5 in 2015

South Korea and Japan have very similar economies and compete head-to-head in a number of prominent sectors like consumer electronics and automobiles. The extent to which you see companies like Samsung overtaking Sony or Hyundai slowly catching up to Toyota is a fairly accurate reflection of what is going on in the broader economies.

In terms of aggregate size, South Korea has less than half the population of Japan, so catching up in terms of gross GDP will be very difficult, barring a scenario where the two Koreas merge, successfully integrate and have a mini-baby boom sometime in the middle of this century. In such a scenario, maybe they are fully caught up by something like 2080.

Glenn Luk, 賓夕法尼亞大學經濟學與計算機科學學士

某種程度上，韓國已經或多或少趕上了日本：

人均GDP（平價購買力）：日本是37000美元左右，韓國是35000美元左右。

人均GDP（名義）：日本在33000-36000美元之間，韓國在28000美元左右。

人類發展指數：韓國（0.898）略微高於日本（0.891）。

彭博創新指數：韓國排在第一名，而日本在第五名。

韓國和日本的經濟非常相似，在消費電子產品和汽車等許多重要領域都存在着激烈的競爭。三星超過索尼或現代等公司慢慢趕上豐田的程度，相當準確地反映了更廣泛經濟體的情況。

就總體規模而言，韓國的人口還不到日本的一半，因此要想在GDP方面趕上日本將非常困難，除非兩韓合併、成功整合，並在本世紀中葉出現小規模的生育高峯。這種情況下，興許他們能在2080年全面趕上日本。

錨點Bill Chen, Budding economist

Answered 16h ago

No.

There is no north Japan and south Japan.

But the ROK or Republic of Korea is also South Korea.

South Korea’’s capital markets alway trade at a discount because there is still no peace treaty. Despite the end of hostilities in 1953, we are only at the declaration of Peace stage.

Seoul, the capital and epicenter of the Korean economy, is close to the interkorean border. Thousands of artillery pieces and missiles are aimed squarely at the city. This is why both koreas have outsized armies and spend heavily on defense, despite the presence of us forces on both South Korea and Japan.

Bill Chen, 經濟學新手

沒可能。

沒有所謂的北日本和南日本。

南韓的資本市場總是折價交易，因為仍然沒有和平條約。儘管1953年敵對狀態已經結束，但我們仍處於和平宣言階段。

首爾是韓國的首都和經濟中心，靠近朝韓邊境。數以千計的大炮和導彈直接對準了這座城市。這就是為什麼儘管美國在韓國和日本都有駐軍，但朝韓兩國依然都擁有龐大的軍隊，並在國防上投入重金的原因。

Byeonguk Yook, Korean American

Answered Feb 5, 2016

Originally Answered: Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan’’s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years?

Yes. However Koreans should begin taking a different approach. The country should find something that it does well that is uniquely their stuff that everybody will need. Japan has found stuff that it does really well but is difficult to outsource. Instead obsessing about “beating” Japan, fix up the country better. Only in that way can Korea “beat” any country. Frankly the sooner new approach and thinking is adopted the better it will be.

They can’’t be doing the same thing or try to follow the same path. Japan has been doing the same thing for a lot longer so they’’ve a more developed infrastructure in R&D than Korea.

Byeonguk Yook, 美籍韓國人

這是有可能的。但韓國人需要採用與日本不同的辦法。

這個國家應該找到它擅長的東西，那就是每個人都需要的獨一無二的東西。日本已經發現了一些自己做得很好的東西，很難外包出去的那種。與其沉迷於“打敗”日本，不如更好地發展這個國家。

只有這樣，韓國才能“打敗”任何國家。坦率地説，越早採用新方法和新思路越好。

他們不能做同樣的事情，或者試圖走同樣的路。日本做同樣的事情已經很久了，所以他們的研發基礎設施比韓國更發達。