金燦榮教授羅馬尼亞激辯西方學者：貿易戰、地區衝突和全球治理（1)_風聞

首發自@政委燦榮 微信公眾號

 　  2019年10月15日至20日，中國公共外交協會胡正躍副會長率團訪問羅馬尼亞。代表團一行走訪了羅馬尼亞外交部、科學院、蒂圖列斯庫歐洲基金會等官方及研究機構，會見了羅馬尼亞前總理訥斯塔塞、前外長、新戰略中心名譽主席切拉克、外交部亞洲事務特別代表伊斯蒂喬亞、歐洲風險基金會主席利維烏·穆列尚等各界重要人士和專家學者，就當前國際關係重大發展趨勢和走向，特別是中美貿易關係、英國脱歐、歐盟發展前景、“一帶一路”、“17+1合作”等議題進行了廣泛深入的探討。

　  訪問期間，代表團出席了羅馬尼亞布加勒斯特論壇。金燦榮教授圍繞“貿易戰、衝突與全球治理”發表了主題演講，傳遞中國聲音，宣介中國主張，着力回應各方關切，闡述對當前重大國際問題的看法，受到普遍歡迎，引起強烈共鳴。本公眾號將對視頻和文字進行連載。

視頻中文譯稿

**主持人：**So, hello, welcome to the session on Trade Wars, Conflicts and Global Governance.

大家好，歡迎參加“貿易戰、地區衝突與全球治理”論壇。

My name is Teery Martin. I am a news anchor with German’s Foreign Broadcaster Service Deutsche Welle.

我叫Terry Martin，來自德國廣播公司 Deutsche Welle。

And it’s my great pleasure to moderate thise session. There are my thanks to German Marshall Fund of BucureştiBudapest for having me.

很榮幸由我來主持今天的論壇。非常感謝布加勒斯特布達佩斯德國馬歇爾基金的邀請。

So, we are talking about Trade Policy. Trade policy is also foreign policy of course.

我們即將討論貿易政策，當然。貿易政策也就是外交政策。

It is used as a foreign policy tool.  and Ssometimes it is used as a foreign policy weapon.

它經常被當做外交政策的工具，有時甚至作為外交政策的武器。

Just ask anyone who lives in Russia or Iran, w. When it comes to sanctions or tariffsterrors, and how these affects countries and people and businesses who live there.

問一下俄羅斯或和伊朗的人，就知道制裁或者恐怖行動對這些國家和人民及其商業活動造成了多大的影響就知道制裁或者關税對這些國家、人民及其商業活動造成了多大的影響。

So trade policy is foreign policy, soon so we’re going to will be talking about that over the next hours.

因此，貿易政策確是外交政策。這是接下來一個小時裏我們將討論的。

So I have been told to keep this a little a little bit shorter. I was taken to lunch, all against my will, but it is also a fruitful experience, I assure you.

主辦方要求我快刀斬亂麻。中午他們邀請我共進午餐，雖然這並非我本意，但相信我可以肯定的是，這是一次經歷愉快頗有成效的經歷。

Anyway, right now we are all witnessing a conflict of monumental proportions.

總之話説回來，現在我們正在見證一個載入史冊的衝突我們都在見證一個影響重大的衝突。

We know exactly what we are talking about. It’s a topic  was talked against at the lunch again too. It is the topic in at these forums all around the world right now.

我們知道這是什麼事。午餐的時候我們也在討論。這是當前全世界的論壇都在討論話題。

That is the confrontation between the United States and China, and to some degree, that conflict, is a systematic geopolitical confrontation, but its most prominent manifestation right now is the Trade War.

這就是中美之間的衝突。在某種程度上來説，這是系統性的地緣政治衝突，但是目前最主要的表現是貿易戰。

I would call it a Trade War. Some might prefer to call it something else. But it is essentially a Trade War.

我認為這是貿易戰。有些人可能不這麼認為。但這本質上就是貿易戰。

And that Trade War is affecting the world economy already.

貿易戰已經對世界經濟造成了影響。

Countries around the world, governance governments around the world are already, and institutions who tracking the global economy are already adjusting their forecast has been fault felt in different ways like peanutbutter.

全世界的國家和政府，包括研究全球經濟的機構已經修訂了問題重重的預測，比如花生醬。

I love peanut butter. We will see just even in the conflict between the US and Europe, peanut butter is on that list, so on the sanction item.

我喜歡吃花生醬。但是我們看到，在美歐之間的衝突中，花生醬也在制裁清單上。

So peanut butter is becoming more difficult for me to get. So that is a serious thing indeed.

所以對我而言，吃個花生醬也越來越困難了。這真是個悲傷的故事。

So, we are talking about the Trade War affecting world economies, disrupting supply chains in ways, I hope we can hear more about it over the next hours.

我們將會討論貿易戰如何影響世界經濟，如何擾亂供應鏈。我希望在接下來一個小時裏我們能瞭解到更多。

And when you disrupting supply chains, a lot of things happen.

當供應鏈被擾亂時，牽一髮而動全身。

It has lot of knock-on effects. It doesn’t just affect the businesses involved of course. It affects everything that is depend on these businesses, like people who work for example

它的影響涉及方方面面，不只是相關企業受影響，還有與這些企業相關的各方面，比如就業。

And it creates an atmosphere of deep uncertainty and anxiety which is what we are experiencing right now.

貿易戰還製造出不確定和焦慮的氛圍，我們當前深受其害。

This whole forum kicked off with the notion that we are still in an even deeper than a year ago into a pattern of disruption and uncertainty and we don’t really know where this is going.

在論壇開始的部分，我們會討論這一觀念，即我們依然處於更甚於去年的混亂和不確定性中，我們不知道未來將會怎樣。

I hope we are getting a little bit of clarity today, not just on the conflict between China and the United States, but also on other conflict and other trade conflicts

我希望今天能讓這個問題更清晰一點，不只是對於中美之間的衝突，還包括其他衝突和其他貿易衝突。

We have representatives from the UK, from China and Japan.

我們邀請到來自英國、中國和日本的嘉賓。

With these this, I am going to introduce them now and we will get things kicked off.

我現在將向大家逐一介紹。

Just one little warning of something to have a bake in the back of your mind.

温馨提示，你們可以在這段時間準備一下。

We will be inviting questions from you toward the end, last 20 minutes or so. One open question or so.

論壇結束前最後20分鐘左右，我們會有提問環節，接受開放性問題。

So you can begin already to ruminate about what questions you may want to put to the panel.

你們現在可以開始思考想向嘉賓提出什麼問題。

So let’s get it under way.

現在讓我們開始吧。

It is my great pleasure to introduce the three panels.

很榮幸由我來介紹今天的三位嘉賓。

I just to invite you to here whatever order you wish.

請上台就坐。

Starting with Shinichi Nakabayashi, he is the director for Japan at the European Bank for Construction and Development.

首先是中村信一，歐洲復興開發銀行日本董事

We also have visitor with us Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China instituteion of at King’s College of London.

其次是Kerry Brown，倫敦國王學院Lau China研究所所長

And our third panelist is coming all the way from China, is Jin Canrong, who is associate dean of School of International Studies of Renmin University in China.

第三位嘉賓是從中國遠道而來的金燦榮教授，中國人民大學國際關係學院副院長

First of all, a warm round of applause for our panelists, thank you for beingtherewith us.

首先，讓我們致以熱烈的掌聲歡迎他們的到來。

Now we haved a bit of correspondents before we showed up here in the Budapest, and I will give the panels a few questions to reflect on.

在我們來到布加勒斯特之前，我們有過幾次通信。我會向嘉賓提出今天討論的問題。

And I’d like to begin by putting the first big picture question to our panels, and you guys can take about 5-7 minutes each, maybe to answer these.

首先，我想先請教嘉賓宏觀層面的問題，你們可以用5-7分鐘發表看法。

The first big question is what do current Trade wars and conflicts tell us about, what about economic and political order and about global governance?

第一個宏觀問題是，當前的貿易戰和貿易衝突對經濟和政治秩序以及全球治理有什麼啓示？

This is basic what our titles are. You can go on whatever you want with that.

這和我們今天的標題差不多。請諸位暢所欲言。

Why don’t we start right here to my right, if you don’t mind Professor Jin.

先從我的右手邊開始吧，如果金教授不介意的話。

金燦榮：Thank you Mr. Martin, and thanks to the host of the event as a great pleasure for me to be here. And it is my first time to be here.

感謝Martin 先生，感謝主辦方，很榮幸我能受邀參加。這是我第一次造訪布達佩斯布加勒斯特。

And I used to be trained as a student of American politics. So next year I will get a lot of interviews to predict who will be the next president of the United States. Hhhhh

我曾經攻讀美國政治。所以明年應該會有很多人採訪我，讓我預測下一任的美國總統。嘿嘿嘿

For me, I think the most important challenge for today world is that we are facing the deficit of global governance.

在我看來，當今世界最大的挑戰在於全球治理不足赤字。

China benefited from globalization a lot in the past four decades.

中國在過去的四十年裏受益於全球化。

Many people believe that China is the one of the countries benefit most, and we appreciate these processes.

許多人認為中國是最大的收益者。我們歡迎全球化。

But very unfortunately now, these processes reverse to some extent.

但不幸的是，這一過程在某種程度上正在發生逆轉。

The fact is that more global challenge occurred now, including climate change.

事實是，當前全球性挑戰頻發，包括氣候變化。

So the demand for global governance keeps rising.

對於全球治理的需求在不斷上升。

But on the other side, the supply of global governance, to some extent, is decreased.

而另一面，全球治理的供給在某種程度上反而減少了。

The one reason is that, the US doesn’t want to offer that supply.

一個原因是美國不願意繼續提供全球治理。

US still own enough resources, but become very selfish.

美國仍然擁有足夠的資源，但它變得自私了。

The US administration now dominated, you know, by nationalism, American First, Buy American, Hire American.

美國政府現在瀰漫着愛國主義：美國優先，買美國貨，僱美國人。

Just like, you know, third world political leader.

看起來就像第三世界的政治領袖。

So US still own resources, but they don’t want to spend money.

美國依然擁有大量資源，但是他們不想花錢了。

So US become selfish.

所以説美國變得自私了，

And EU still has a very strong will to offer this global governance.

歐盟依然很想提供全球治理。

But EU has its problem. EU becomes weak after the Brexit.

但是歐盟也有問題。英國脱歐後，歐盟元氣大傷。

So these are the problems.

這是問題。

It used to be the world benefit from the supply of global governance, many from the US and the EU.

過去全球都從美國和歐盟主導的全球治理中受益。

But now, we see on the supply side, they don’t want to supply.

但是現在。我們看到供給側不再供給了。

And China wants to supply.

中國希望提供全球治理。

主持人：So what do you try to supply, global governance?

你們想提供什麼？全球治理？

金燦榮：Global governance.

對，全球治理。

主持人：They are not supplying, ok. Just want to clear about that.

美國不再提供了，好的。我只是想確認一下。

金燦榮：You see the problem of logic: the demand keeps rising and the supply very hesitates.

你看到問題邏輯了：需求上升而供給猶豫不決。

China wants to join in, so we offered the “One Belt One Road Initiative”. But you guys are very hesitates to support China.

中國希望加入，所以我們提出了“一帶一路倡議”。但是你們不太願意支持中國。

**主持人：**When you say “you guys”, you mean…?

你説的“你們”指的是？（眾人笑）

**金燦榮：**EU and US. Hhhh.

歐盟和美國。

And some people even demonize “One Belt One Road Initiative”. That’s ridiculous. That is irresponsible for the global governance.

有些人甚至妖魔化“一帶一路倡議”。簡直可笑。這是對全球治理的不負責。

So that is one concern of mine: the deficit of global governance.

這是我的第一個關注點：全球治理不足赤字。

The second concern definitely relates to the US-China relations.

第二個關注點是中美關係。

I have to say, now and in the future, the US-China relation is the most important bilateral tie for China.

不得不説，對中國而言，中美關係是當今乃至未來最重要的雙邊關係。

We do appreciate and benefit resulting from US-China relation for the past 4 decades after the normalization.

中美關係正常化之後的四十年裏，我們從中受益良多。

We benefit a lot and we appreciate that.

我們對此表示歡迎。

But unfortunately, the US-China relation will enter a quite long bumpy period, at least last for one decade.

但是很遺憾，中美關係將進入相當長的顛簸期，至少持續十年。

We have to face this new reality.

我們必須面對這個現實。

Because US now define China, you know, as the revisionist country, and they consider terrorism as not that important threat, but competitions among big powers are now ranking No. 1.

因為美國現在把中國定義為修正主義國家。他們認為恐怖主義不再是最重要的，而大國角力成為頭等大事。

And now they have two adversaries, Russia under the Putting the Great and China under our current leader, right? HHHHH

他們現在樹立了兩個敵人，普京大帝治下的俄羅斯和  領導下的中國。嘿嘿嘿

But from long term view point, they believe their only adversary should be China, because Russia fells into so called “Resource Curve” or “Resource Trap” already.

但是，長遠來看，他們認為中國是唯一的敵人，因為俄羅斯已經跌入了“資源詛咒”或者“資源陷阱”。

So from a long term viewpoint, Russia will become not that strong economically, so they put China at very top position of adversary.

所以長期看，俄羅斯的經濟實力會衰弱，所以他們將中國視為頭號敵人。

That’s not good, not good for US-China relation.

這很不妙，對中美關係也不好。

As we all know, US people easy to, they are not good at thinking, as for thinking, not good as their European counterpart, but they are very good at action.

眾所周知，美國人不像歐洲人那樣善於思考，是十足的行動派。

So, after they defined China as revisionist country, they immediately launched the trade war.

所以，當他們把中國定義為修正主義國家之後，他們立刻發起了貿易戰。

Actually, our official media does not use the word “trade war”, but we use term 貿易摩擦 ”trade friction”.

事實上。中國的官媒從未使用“貿易戰”一詞，我們使用的是“貿易摩擦”。

We are very cautious; we don’t want to exagerrate the seriousness of the situation.

我們非常謹慎，我們不想誇大形勢的嚴重性。

So we see now the US-China relation deteriorated since spring last year.

所以我們看到，去年開春依賴中美關係開始惡化。

But as for the trade friction or trade war, I don’t want to worry so that much. I tend to believe next month, when we have APEC summit in Chili, we will have a partial deal.

但是就貿易摩擦或者貿易戰而言，我覺得不用太擔心，我相信在下個月智利舉行的APEC 峯會上，將達成部分協議。

Because one side China compromises a lot, China really does not want to have a trade war. China did it best to avoid that. As I know, we compromised 80%.

因為中國已經做出了巨大讓步，中國不希望打貿易戰。中國竭盡全力避免。據我所知，中國讓步了80%。

But the problem is, on the US side, they want to have a 100% deal. That is ridiculous.

問題在於美方，他們想獲得100%的協議。這不可能。

You can never get that. Their choice is 0 or 80%.

他們不可能如願。他們的選擇只有 0 或者80%。

And I think, at Chili, President Trump will accept 80% deal,（主持人：OK）because he needs diplomatic victory.

所以我認為， 在智利，特朗普總統會接受 80%&的協議，因為他需要外交成果。

Actually, after 3 years of ruling, he got nothing in foreign policy. North Korea? He failed! Iran? Failed! Venezuela? Failed! Syria? Failed! Ukraine? Failed!

事實上，特朗普入主白宮3年期間在外交上一無所獲。朝鮮？失敗。伊朗？失敗。委內瑞拉？失敗。敍利亞？失敗。烏克蘭？失敗。

Zero! You know. Hhh

一無所獲。

So he needs something to show to his audience that he gets something.

所以他需要成果向他的選民做交代。

That is why I said as for trade war, don’t worry. We will have a partial deal.

因此我認為，貿易戰不用太擔心，我們會達成部分協議。

**主持人：**OK, thank you. I am afraid you have to stop. We will come back.

好的，謝謝，我不得不打斷您了，後面還有機會。

Just a quick summary of what you have said: China is looking for, to Europe and the rest of the world, for more global governance. But Europe is weak and the US is selfish and China does see the prospect of the deal shaping outif the US just back away for its 100% demand maybe.

簡單總結一下您的觀點：中國希望歐洲或其他地方提供更多的全球治理，但是歐洲疲弱、美國自私，如果美國不堅守100%不讓步，中國對這個協議還是持積極態度。

OK ,very good. Well Kerry, you want to pick it up from that? 非常感謝。

非常感謝。Kerry，你願意下一個發言嗎？（未完待續）

Kerry Brown

**Kerry Brown:**Sure, yeah. Good. Well, thanks for inviting me here, good to see you, Dr. Jin. And thank you very much.

感謝主辦方的邀請，金教授你好，感謝主持人。

So, I propose my question, what I really think about, is this really about trade?

我提出我的問題，我想的是，這一切真的只是貿易問題嗎？

You know, it seems, to me, there is a lot of deep structurally fuse are coming to the surface. And trade is like the soldier proxy.

對我而言，這更像是大量深層次的結構性導火索浮上水面。而貿易不過是個由頭。

One of these is what is China’s rightful place, as you mentioned the “Belt and Road”. And the “Belt and Road” is the first proactive time for China try to really spell out what is seems rationally is.

其中一個導火索便是中國的定位是什麼？正如您（金教授）提到的“一帶一路”。“一帶一路”是中國第一次主動向世界闡明其理念。

It looks like, it is a different thing in different place, the “Belt and Road” in central Asia.

這看起來是全新的理念，針對中亞的“一帶一路”。

It is a different thing, the “Belt and Road” of India, which is obviously opposing it in many different ways.

和印度所提出的“一帶一路”完全不同，而且在很多方面針鋒相對。

The “Belt and Road” in Europe is different, which is about road to America, which doesn’t seem to be a part.

和歐洲的“一帶一路”也不同，歐洲面向的是美洲，二者並不在中國的倡議範圍內。

I guess “Belt and Road” to me is kind of interesting because it really what this world about for America. I mean, what is not in the “Belt and Road”, the United States and Japan, mostly the United States.

“一帶一路”之所以吸引我，是因為它讓我看到的了美國所處的位置。我的意思是，“一帶一路”不包括誰呢？美國和日本，主要是排除美國。

(嘉賓用中文對着金教授説：放心吧放心吧)

So this vision is quite a geopolitical one. It is a very big geopolitical one. You can’t get rid of the politics.

這是非常具有地緣政治氣息的願景。你不能脱離政治。

So I suppose the trade war addresses a huge problem, which is what does China do when it is the one, and universe projection show in the next 5-10 years, it is probably sooner, China would be the world’s biggest economy in agross term.

我認為貿易戰暴露了巨大的問題，就是中國如果成為了世界第一，會有什麼動作。普遍預測都顯示中國的經濟總量會在5-10之內，可能更快一點，超過美國。

I know in capital terms it is still way below the level of the United States.

雖然就資本項目而言，中國的水平遠低於美國。

But that is a very different world to the one we are in now.

那可能會跟我們現在的生活大不一樣。

The first is how does the United States response to that. And that is not an easy question, because the United States is a proud country likes to be loved.And we do love America.

首先是美國將作何反應。這不是一個簡單的問題，因為美國是一個喜歡被人們熱愛的傲嬌的國家。當然，我們確實也熱愛美國。

That is one issue. The second issue is it is not easy to see China’s economic status translates into political status.

這是一個問題，第二個問題是中國的經濟地位如何轉化成政治地位。

And in fact, the problem we have been talking about the last days really, is values. And I guess the social problem is American’s acquisition against China with the engagement with the international system, but not really believe its underlying values. Not really

事實上，正如我們這幾天討論的，問題在於價值觀。我認為美國社會的問題在於，美國人認為中國參與國際體系，但並不真心信仰其內在的價值觀。

I do not say it right or wrong, but that is the American perception, and for all the rest of the world, you are dealing with the world biggest economy at the moment feeling like it has not been dealt fairly, the world second-biggesteconomy feeling like it has not been dealt fairly. And there is no easy way to deal with that kind of that conflict.

我不判斷對錯，但至少美國人是這麼看的。而對於世界其他國家而言，他們面對的是世界經濟第一和第二的強國都認為自己受到不公正的待遇。這一衝突也不容易解決。

I mean trade conflict; I guess you like to do a deal, but that conflict is a much sucker one.

我認為貿易衝突你們或許可以達成協議，但是價值觀的衝突則更加棘手。

So I think your forecast about this bumpy period is right, and I don’t think it needs to be 10 years. I think we are moving toward a world which is gonna bea perpetual pass for global architecture.

我認為你關於這個顛簸時期的預測是正確的，甚至不需要十年。我認為我們正走在邁向國際秩序的必經之路上。

And once the trade issue, if it is dealt with, is dealt with, there will be other issues.

一旦貿易問題得到解決，其他問題還會冒出來。

So the question, sort of underneath sense, thinking Confucianism, is what China’s rightful place is. And that is part for what China thinks is its rightful place and what is the rest of the world is going to, not to allow, but be comfortable with.

想想孔子的智慧，深層次的問題是，中國如何定位自身。這包括中國認為的定位以及世界能否接納中國的定位。

Because there is resentment on either side about that rightful place, that is not going to work.

如果雙方都對定位不滿的話，那會很麻煩。

So the geopolitical consent is going to be absolutely crucial, and I am going to assess the huge debate that we are going to go through with this excellent conference also contributing too.

所以地緣政治的共識至關重要。我將繼續探索這個宏大的爭議，今天這場盛會也將有所裨益。

**主持人：**Thank you Kerry, so just again in summary.

非常感謝你的發言。還是總結一下。

We are talking about, in terms of in the side of American, the trade dispute, the trade part of that is really just reflection of larger geostrategic competition that is on the way, and not clear how it is going to conclude out,

我們説到，對於美國人來説，貿易爭端的貿易只不過是反映了更大的地緣戰略競爭，現在還不知道會如何收尾。

and reflects of deeper clash of values which of course rises question how do you overcome those differences with resolve, that one is a tough one.

這也反映了價值觀的深層次衝突，這個問題的解決並不容易。

**Kerry Brown:**So, I notice the very final thing is that no one can say to a fifth of humanity that they have to go away.

我注意到，最重要的是沒有人能忽視全球五分之一的人口。

So the fact of China, the fact of its structure, its population, the huge importance of its emerging of the middle class, these don’t go away. And even you have but, you know, trade friction or trade wars, that doesn’t go away.

中國的結構、人口以及新興中產階級的巨大影響力都無法令人忽視。

And no amount of confrontation. We will make that go away.

即使再多的衝突，我們也會解決。