專訪美中貿易全國委員會會長：供應鏈出現“斷點”，美國公司會從中國走嗎？_風聞

來源：國是直通車  2020-4-9

　　疫情還在加速擴散。據美國約翰斯·霍普金斯大學實時疫情數據顯示，截至北京時間4月9日上午8時，全球新冠肺炎累計確診病例逾151萬，達1513358例；累計死亡逾8.8萬例；累計治癒近33萬例。

　　美國新冠肺炎累計確診病例逾43萬，達430376例；累計死亡達1.46萬例。目前，美國是全球累計確診病例數最多的國家，死亡病例數位居第三。

　　疫情將給全球經濟帶來怎樣的衝擊？又將如何影響中美經貿關係？針對這些問題，美中貿易全國委員會會長克雷格·艾倫(Craig Allen)近日接受了中新社國是直通車專訪。

　　全球GDP或將下降1.9個百分點

　　疫情對全球經濟的影響有多大，目前仍眾説紛紜。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計今年世界經濟將出現負增長，還有學者認為經濟受損程度將堪比大蕭條。

　　國是直通車：您認為疫情會引發全球性的經濟衰退或者經濟危機嗎？如果是，這次和2008年金融危機時有什麼相同點和不同點？

　　克雷格·艾倫：當前世界確實面臨史無前例的全球性醫療衞生和經濟挑戰。不少國際評級機構、銀行和學者都認為全球性衰退有可能發生，只不過嚴重程度不同。我也觀察到了一些對今年全球GDP下降1.9個百分點左右的判斷。和2008年金融危機時相比，當前全球各經濟體之間的聯繫更加緊密，所有國家和民眾都會切身感受新冠病毒對經濟帶來的挑戰。因此，各國政府加強合作，協調一致作出反應非常關鍵。這意味着我們要展開全球合作來研發疫苗，確立支持開放和自由貿易的原則，以便利商品和醫療物資的流通。

　　供應鏈出現“斷點”，跨國公司會走嗎？

　　疫情之下，大批經濟活動驟停，人流、物流跨國流動嚴重受阻，原本環環相扣的全球產業鏈、供應鏈出現多個“斷點”。各國會不會因此促重要產業部門迴流國內，跨國公司是否會調整其全球佈局備受關注。

　　國是直通車：受疫情影響，不少國家產業鏈、供應鏈都面臨“斷鏈”風險。您認為疫情之後，縮短國際供應鏈會變成新趨勢嗎？如果是，這對現行國際產業鏈供應鏈佈局會有什麼影響？

　　克雷格·艾倫：新冠肺炎疫情暴發前，貿易緊張局勢持續兩年多帶來的重壓已經影響到了企業的全球供應鏈。今後企業會持續管控他們的供應鏈來提高效率、降低風險，這有助於為他們的客户降低成本。不同行業情況不同，所以很難一概而論。不過我確實認為，公司高管們會在董事會會議室裏深入審視一下如何組織貨源並更快地把商品提供給全球消費者。

　　國是直通車：據您掌握的情況，美國企業今後會傾向於把他們的供應鏈集中佈局在北美區域嗎？

　　克雷格·艾倫：對供應鏈這個問題，美國企業一直是以全球視角來看的。全球95%的消費者都住在美國以外的國家，因此對美國企業來説持續接近消費者非常關鍵。美國在其地理南北兩邊都有和美國貿易往來密切的鄰國，而且最近達成的新版美墨加貿易協定進一步鞏固了這種合作關係。這個協定裏確實有鼓勵企業把供應鏈集中佈局在北美洲的內容。

　　但與此同時，我們必須注意到，美國企業的目標市場眾多，在全球都有分佈，把供應鏈僅僅集中在北美洲並不具有可行性。舉例來説，美中貿易全國委員會很多會員企業在中國進行了大量投資，以便深耕中國市場。對這類企業來説，他們為了更快滿足中國消費者的需求，會繼續把供應鏈留在中國。

　　國是直通車：現在有人認為疫情是壓垮經濟全球化的“最後一根稻草”，您的看法是？

　　克雷格·艾倫：美國企業在全球化時代從國際貿易投資往來中受益良多。疫情暴發前是這樣，疫情結束後也將依然如此。為應對疫情給經濟造成的衝擊和挑戰，我們需要通過更多諸如美中第一階段經貿協議這樣的貿易協定來拓展新的商機，同時進一步完善WTO多邊機制也將尤為重要。

　　美中應加強合作帶領世界走出危機

　　疫情對中美貿易造成了兩輪衝擊。疫情在中國暴發時，中國外貿企業遲遲不能復工復產，致中美貿易大幅縮水。據中方數據，今年前兩個月中美貿易總值同比下降19.6%，降幅在中國主要貿易伙伴中居首。其中，中國對美國出口下降26.5%。如今，隨着美國疫情日益嚴峻，中國外貿企業承接的大批美國訂單被取消，給中美貿易帶來了新的困擾。

　　國是直通車：您怎麼看此次疫情對中美經貿關係的影響？

　　克雷格·艾倫：今年年初，中美簽署了第一階段經貿協議，為兩國不斷升級的緊張關係按下“暫停鍵”，也為雙方企業創造了新的機遇。這是一個具有重大歷史意義的時刻。不過，中美關係存在的問題和挑戰是多方面的，也非常複雜，不可能在短期內得到一攬子解決。令人遺憾的是，新冠肺炎疫情導致中美關係出現了新的緊張態勢。這個時候兩國政府應當做的是加強合作，引領世界走出這場人道主義危機。

　　國是直通車：當前形勢下，要提振中美貿易，您認為當務之急是什麼？

　　克雷格·艾倫：中美兩國經濟和政治體制的差異不可避免會引發一些摩擦和競爭。對世界兩個最大的經濟體來説，有摩擦、有競爭是可預見的，也是健康的。重要的是，雙方要能夠坐下來一起討論遇到的挑戰，並通過積極對話和切實行動來解決問題。(李曉喻)

　　附英文采訪實錄：

　　TopNewsExpress：Do you think the coronavirus will trigger a global recession or a crisis?

　　Allen: The world is certainly facing unprecedented global health and economic challenges today. Many global ratings agencies, banks, and academics share views that a global recession is possible with varying levels of severity. I’ve observed predictions of global GDP declines this year ranging north and south of 1.9 percent. Peoples and economies around the world are even more interconnected today than at the time of the 2008 financial crisis. COVID-19 and the corresponding economic challenges it creates will be felt by all. That is why it’s vital for governments to work together in crafting a coordinated response. That means working together to support global R&D in finding a vaccine, and adopting principles that support open and free trade to facilitate the movement of goods and health supplies。

　　TopNewsExpress：The disease has exposed many companies to the risk of supply chain disruption. In this case, will shortening the international supply chain link become a new trend in the future?

　　Allen: The COVID-19 pandemic builds on two-plus years of already heavy trade-related stresses impacting companies’ global supply chains. Companies continually monitor their supply chains for areas to improve efficiencies and reduce risk, which can hopefully contribute to reduced costs for their customers globally. Each industry takes a different approach to supply chains and makes their calculus based on a host of different factors, so i expect there isn’t one single answer for all companies. However, I do expect that in boardrooms across the globe, executives will scrutinize deeply how they are sourcing products and getting them to customers quickly。

　　TopNewsExpress：As far as you know, will American companies tend to concentrate their supply chains in North America in the future?

　　Allen: American companies view supply chains through a global lens. 95 percent of the world’s consumers live outside the United States’ borders, so it’s critical that American companies continue to have access to them. We are fortunate to have great neighbors to the north and south with which we have really strong trade relationships, cemented by the recently concluded USMCA agreement. There are elements of USCMA that do encourage supply chains to be located in North America. At the same time, American companies serve customers in many markets, and it isn’t always feasible to have supply chains centralized only in North America. Many USCBC member companies, for example, are invested heavily in China in order to serve the China market. For them, I expect that they will still maintain supply chains in China in order to quickly serve the needs of their Chinese customers。

　　TopNewsExpress：Some people think that the epidemic is the last straw that overwhelms economic globalization. What do you think of the impact of the epidemic on globalization?

　　Allen: American companies benefit greatly from trade and investment with other countries in our globalized world. That was true before the epidemic and will continue to be true after the epidemic. Expanding commercial opportunities through international trade agreements (like the US-China Phase One Agreement) and strengthening the WTO will be as important as ever as we look to new solutions to address the economic challenges created by COVID-19.

　　TopNewsExpress：How do you think the epidemic will affect China-US economic and trade relations? Will it become more tense or ease?

　　Allen: This year began with a momentous occasion when US and Chinese trade negotiators were able to strike a trade deal that was able to put a pause on escalating bilateral tensions, and create new opportunities for businesses in both countries. However, the challenges in our bilateral relationship are complex and multi-faceted. It is unlikely that they are all able to be resolved quickly. The COVID-19 pandemic has unfortunately resulted in new tensions at a time when our two governments should be working together to lead the world out of this humanitarian crisis。

　　TopNewsExpress：In your opinion, what is the top priority for saving China-US trade?

　　Allen: Given the complexity of our relationship, it is unlikely that one single issue can fully resolve the challenges in our trade relationship. The differences in our economic and political systems will inevitably lead to frictions and competition, which is healthy and expected for the world’s two largest economies. What is important is that we are able to discuss our challenges together, and work out our problems through dialogue and action。