英國正式發佈解封計劃：最快6月開學，7月重開餐廳_風聞

英國累計確診219,183，累計死亡31,855之際，英國首相剛剛正式宣佈了詳細的解封計劃。

解讀方案之前，先看最新數據。

過去24小時，英國新增確診3923，新增死亡269（醫院內+醫院外），新增檢測92,837次，新增檢測64,362人，確診率6.1%。

今日其它數據圖表列於文末，接下來重點看看英國封鎖和解封方面的最新消息。

先解釋一下，英國政府已於5月7日宣佈繼續封城三週，這意味着至少在5月7日-5月28日時間裏，英國實質上還是處於封鎖狀態。

但與此同時，英國政府此前也承諾將會放鬆一小部分封鎖措施，並向大眾公佈完整的解封計劃，具體細節已由首相鮑里斯於幾個小時前正式公佈。

換句話來説，英國首相剛剛只是公佈瞭解封計劃，並不代表英國馬上就要全面解封了。

至於具體細節，雖然之前被媒體曝光的差不多了，但到底事實如何，還是要聽首相親自説。

5月10日英國時間晚7點，英國首相鮑里斯親自宣讀了疫情以來首個解封計劃。

完整全文如下：

It is now almost two months since the people of this country began to put up with restrictions on their freedom – your freedom – of a kind that we have never seen before in peace or war.

And you have shown the good sense to support those rules overwhelmingly.

You have put up with all the hardships of that programme of social distancing.

Because you understand that as things stand, and as the experience of every other country has shown, it’s the only way to defeat the coronavirus - the most vicious threat this country has faced in my lifetime.

And though the death toll has been tragic, and the suffering immense.

And though we grieve for all those we have lost.

It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst case scenario was half a million fatalities.

And it is thanks to your effort and sacrifice in stopping the spread of this disease that the death rate is coming down and hospital admissions are coming down.

And thanks to you we have protected our NHS and saved many thousands of lives.

And so I know - you know - that it would be madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike.

We must stay alert.

We must continue to control the virus and save lives.

And yet we must also recognise that this campaign against the virus has come at colossal cost to our way of life.

We can see it all around us in the shuttered shops and abandoned businesses and darkened pubs and restaurants.

And there are millions of people who are both fearful of this terrible disease, and at the same time also fearful of what this long period of enforced inactivity will do to their livelihoods and their mental and physical wellbeing.

To their futures and the futures of their children.

So I want to provide tonight - for you - the shape of a plan to address both fears.

Both to beat the virus and provide the first sketch of a road map for reopening society.

A sense of the way ahead, and when and how and on what basis we will take the decisions to proceed.

I will be setting out more details in Parliament tomorrow and taking questions from the public in the evening.

I have consulted across the political spectrum, across all four nations of the UK.

And though different parts of the country are experiencing the pandemic at different rates.

And though it is right to be flexible in our response.

I believe that as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom – Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, there is a strong resolve to defeat this together.

And today a general consensus on what we could do.

And I stress could.

Because although we have a plan, it is a conditional plan.

And since our priority is to protect the public and save lives, we cannot move forward unless we satisfy the five tests.

We must protect our NHS.

We must see sustained falls in the death rate.

We must see sustained and considerable falls in the rate of infection.

We must sort out our challenges in getting enough PPE to the people who need it, and yes, it is a global problem but we must fix it.

And last, we must make sure that any measures we take do not force the reproduction rate of the disease - the R - back up over one, so that we have the kind of exponential growth we were facing a few weeks ago.

And to chart our progress and to avoid going back to square one, we are establishing a new Covid Alert System run by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre.

And that Covid Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases.

And in turn that Covid Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures – the lower the level the fewer the measures.

The higher the level, the tougher and stricter we will have to be.

There will be five alert levels.

Level One means the disease is no longer present in the UK and Level Five is the most critical – the kind of situation we could have had if the NHS had been overwhelmed.

Over the period of the lockdown we have been in Level Four, and it is thanks to your sacrifice we are now in a position to begin to move in steps to Level Three.

And as we go everyone will have a role to play in keeping the R down.

By staying alert and following the rules.

And to keep pushing the number of infections down there are two more things we must do.

We must reverse rapidly the awful epidemics in care homes and in the NHS, and though the numbers are coming down sharply now, there is plainly much more to be done.

And if we are to control this virus, then we must have a world-beating system for testing potential victims, and for tracing their contacts.

So that – all told - we are testing literally hundreds of thousands of people every day.

We have made fast progress on testing – but there is so much more to do now, and we can.

When this began, we hadn’t seen this disease before, and we didn’t fully understand its effects.

With every day we are getting more and more data.

We are shining the light of science on this invisible killer, and we will pick it up where it strikes.

Because our new system will be able in time to detect local flare-ups – in your area – as well as giving us a national picture.

And yet when I look at where we are tonight, we have the R below one, between 0.5 and 0.9 – but potentially only just below one.

And though we have made progress in satisfying at least some of the conditions I have given.

We have by no means fulfilled all of them.

And so no, this is not the time simply to end the lockdown this week.

Instead we are taking the first careful steps to modify our measures.

And the first step is a change of emphasis that we hope that people will act on this week.

We said that you should work from home if you can, and only go to work if you must.

We now need to stress that anyone who can’t work from home, for instance those in construction or manufacturing, should be actively encouraged to go to work.

And we want it to be safe for you to get to work. So you should avoid public transport if at all possible – because we must and will maintain social distancing, and capacity will therefore be limited.

So work from home if you can, but you should go to work if you can’t work from home.

And to ensure you are safe at work we have been working to establish new guidance for employers to make workplaces COVID-secure.

And when you do go to work, if possible do so by car or even better by walking or bicycle. But just as with workplaces, public transport operators will also be following COVID-secure standards.

And from this Wednesday, we want to encourage people to take more and even unlimited amounts of outdoor exercise.

You can sit in the sun in your local park, you can drive to other destinations, you can even play sports but only with members of your own household.

You must obey the rules on social distancing and to enforce those rules we will increase the fines for the small minority who break them.

And so every day, with ever increasing data, we will be monitoring the R and the number of new infections, and the progress we are making, and if we as a nation begin to fulfil the conditions I have set out, then in the next few weeks and months we may be able to go further.

In step two – at the earliest by June 1 – after half term – we believe we may be in a position to begin the phased reopening of shops and to get primary pupils back into schools, in stages, beginning with reception, Year 1 and Year 6.

Our ambition is that secondary pupils facing exams next year will get at least some time with their teachers before the holidays. And we will shortly be setting out detailed guidance on how to make it work in schools and shops and on transport.

And step three - at the earliest by July - and subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice; if and only if the numbers support it, we will hope to re-open at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places, provided they are safe and enforce social distancing.

Throughout this period of the next two months we will be driven not by mere hope or economic necessity. We are going to be driven by the science, the data and public health.

And I must stress again that all of this is conditional, it all depends on a series of big Ifs. It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice, to observe social distancing, and to keep that R down.

And to prevent re-infection from abroad, I am serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air.

And it is because of your efforts to get the R down and the number of infections down here, that this measure will now be effective.

And of course we will be monitoring our progress locally, regionally, and nationally and if there are outbreaks, if there are problems, we will not hesitate to put on the brakes.

We have been through the initial peak – but it is coming down the mountain that is often more dangerous.

We have a route, and we have a plan, and everyone in government has the all-consuming pressure and challenge to save lives, restore livelihoods and gradually restore the freedoms that we need.

But in the end this is a plan that everyone must make work.

And when I look at what you have done already.

The patience and common sense you have shown.

The fortitude of the elderly whose isolation we all want to end as fast as we can.

The incredible bravery and hard work of our NHS staff, our care workers.

The devotion and self-sacrifice of all those in every walk of life who are helping us to beat this disease.

Police, bus drivers, train drivers, pharmacists, supermarket workers, road hauliers, bin collectors, cleaners, security guards, postal workers, our teachers and a thousand more.

The scientists who are working round the clock to find a vaccine.

When I think of the millions of everyday acts of kindness and thoughtfulness that are being performed across this country.

And that have helped to get us through this first phase.

I know that we can use this plan to get us through the next.

And if we can’t do it by those dates, and if the alert level won’t allow it, we will simply wait and go on until we have got it right.

We will come back from this devilish illness.

We will come back to health, and robust health.

And though the UK will be changed by this experience, I believe we can be stronger and better than ever before. More resilient, more innovative, more economically dynamic, but also more generous and more sharing.

But for now we must stay alert, control the virus and save lives.

Thank you very much.

不想看視頻和全文的讀者可以直接看我們的總結。

根據首相的全國講話，英國將分三步逐步解封：

1. 第一步，從5月13日（週三）開始：

鼓勵無法在家工作的民眾迴歸工作，特別是建築和製造業工人，但在工作時要遵守社交隔離，且在通勤時避免乘坐公共交通工具，儘量選擇自行車和開車出行，步行最佳。

政府為僱主制定了新的防疫指導方針和防護用品規範，以確保僱員的健康和安全。據英媒後續報道，該規範將要求僱主為員工提供口罩。

對於那些可以在家工作的人，接下來還是要繼續在家工作。

取消每人每天外出運動一次的限制，民眾將被允許在公園裏曬太陽，也可以開車去其它地點，但前提是隻能和同住的人開展運動，這一措施將於5月13日正式生效。

外出時必須保持2米並遵守嚴格的社交隔離措施，違者將被除以更嚴厲的懲罰，最高可達3200英鎊，約2.8萬人民幣。

2. 第二步，最早從6月1日開始：

如果疫情好轉，英國政府將會分階段重開商店，並且讓小學生最早於6月1日重返學校。

首先回到學校的是小學學前班（reception）、一年級和六年級的學生。

其次是明年要考試的中學生，政府希望讓這部分學生至少能在暑假之前和自己的老師有所互動。

具體的復學計劃要到五月下旬公佈。

3. 第三步，最早從7月開始：

如果疫情數據進一步好轉的話，英國預計最早於7月重開部分酒店、餐廳和咖啡館，並開放部分公共場所，只要確保人們能夠遵守社交隔離規則。

鮑里斯在講話中特別沒有提到酒吧，這也被英媒解讀為酒吧業的壞消息，即酒吧至少要關門2個月以上。

英國政府發佈五級警報系統，以確定解封日期。

大家可能發現了，鮑里斯對6月1日開學和7月重開餐廳並不100%肯定，在前提中特別強調了需要在疫情好轉時才會這樣做。

對此，鮑里斯也在講話中做出了詳細解釋，即未來的解封措施不一定會完全按照計劃進行。

接下來，政府會定期對疫情進行評估，並根據最新情況作出政策調整。

對此，鮑里斯特別發佈了全新的五級警報系統。

鮑里斯表示，為避免重蹈覆轍，英國建立了由政府生物安全中心設計的五級警報系統。

警報級別由傳染率R和新冠病例數決定，級別越低，封鎖措施越少。

具體細節如下：

第五級：即疫情最嚴重的最高等級，傳染率R值高於1，國家處於高危狀態，意味着NHS被擊穿，這時候需要重新啓用此前關閉的南丁格爾醫院。

第四級：為英國當前疫情所在等級（R值在0.6-0.9），這一級別時R低於1，但部分地區的R會高於1，NHS未被擊穿，對應措施是繼續封鎖。

第三級：病毒被控制，英國全部地區R值低於1，應對措施是有限地放鬆封鎖。

第二級：疫情明顯得到控制，對應措施為：商店重開，辦公室工作者復工，易感羣體繼續留在家裏。

第一級：英國不再有新冠，對應措施：恢復大型體育賽事，易感羣體可以外出。

結合上面提到的三步解封策略的話，鮑里斯表示，只有英國的新冠警報級別降到第三級，英國才會考慮進入第二步重開學校，否則將會停留在第一步。

根據首相講話，目前英國仍處於第四級警報，但正在逐步步入第三級。

入境英國需強制隔離

在鮑里斯今天的講話中，他還表示，為了防止輸入性病例，現在是時候對通過飛機進入英國的旅客進行隔離，這將大大降低新冠的傳染率。

鮑里斯在講話中並沒有提及具體細節，英媒稱詳細措施將會在明天發佈。

據英媒後續透露，英國將要求所有入境者進行14天的強制隔離，據路透社進一步消息，這一隔離計劃將不包括法國。

英媒此前稱這項措施將會在6月初正式啓動，違者將面臨高達1000英鎊的罰款或被遣返回國。

除了以上重點內容，首相講話還有以下要點：

鮑里斯表示，感謝民眾在過去兩個月以來遵守了隔離規則，儘管這一過程非常艱難。

這一隔離措施避免了災難，並防止死亡病例進一步上升，要知道當時預計的最壞情況是50萬人死亡。

英國不同地區的疫情狀況不同，因此各地區可以靈活應對，鮑里斯相信英格蘭、蘇格蘭、威爾士和北愛爾蘭將會共同擊敗新冠病毒，這一點有深意，後面會講。

重提英國大規模解封需要滿足的五大條件：

1. 必須保護NHS不被擊穿

2. 必須看到死亡率持續下降

3. 必須看到感染率持續和大量下降

4. 測試數量和防護設備能夠滿足需求

5. 任何措施都不會引發導致NHS被擊穿的第二波高峯

説完首相的最新講話，我們再看一下過去24小時英國疫情方面的其它進展：

正式更換抗疫口號

今日，英國官方正式更換了抗疫口號。

從此前的Stay Home（待在家裏）—Protect the NHS（保護NHS）—Save Lives（拯救生命）。

改成了

Stay Alert（保持警惕）—Control the Virus（控制病毒）—Save Lives（拯救生命）

這一改變和鮑里斯今天的講話相對應，意在鼓勵不得不出門工作的人復工，以復甦英國的經濟。 

講話結束後，鮑里斯也更改了推特名字。把後綴改成了Stay Alert保持警惕。

另由於部分媒體和政客質疑Stay Alert過於模糊，官方還發出了細節定義，解釋什麼是保持警惕：

儘可能待在家裏

如果外出，儘量保持2米

儘可能在家辦公

勤洗手

減少與他人接觸的次數

如果你或者同住的人出現症狀，所有人必須隔離。

反對新口號，蘇格蘭、威爾士先後發聲

在今天的講話中，鮑里斯特別提到英國不同地區的疫情狀況不同，因此各地區可以靈活應對。

鮑里斯表示，英格蘭、蘇格蘭、威爾士和北愛爾蘭將會共同擊敗新冠病毒。

首相這一言論和上述地區領袖近期頻頻發聲有關。

今天，蘇格蘭首席部長率先對鮑里斯嗆聲，一大早就發推稱，她從週日報紙上才知道鮑里斯要發佈新口號了，暗示自己並不提前知道英國政府要改口號的消息。

她還表示，“鮑里斯當然可以決定什麼對英格蘭最合適，但根據抗疫現狀，留在家裏拯救生命仍然是我傳達給蘇格蘭的口號。”

很顯然，蘇格蘭不想改口號。

此外，斯特金還特意在今天於蘇格蘭舉辦的發佈會上説：“我搞不懂“Stay Albert保持警惕”是什麼意思，這有點模糊。”

斯特金還特意把“留在家裏”的大字打在了背後的公屏上，並表示：“蘇格蘭會繼續使用Stay at Home的口號”。

除此之外，斯特金還強調：“我們不能過早地放鬆封鎖措施，以及釋放讓人感到疑惑的信息。”

“如果及早放鬆封鎖措施，會有更多人因此而死去，我們決不能冒這個險。”

威爾士首席大臣德雷克福德也保留了原標語，他表示，“我將向威爾士人民傳達的信息是，大家必須警惕病毒持續帶來的危害。”

“因此與他人減少聯繫，為了減少對自己和他人的風險，留在家中仍然是最重要的保護途徑。”

英國政府將呼籲民眾自制“口罩”

據《電訊報》報道，英國政府明天還將發佈另一防疫措施。

政府將明確建議人們在搭乘公共交通工具或去往商店時佩戴面部遮擋物。

面部遮擋物包括圍巾，頭巾和手帕，人們可以自行製作。

關於英國疫情，過去24小時還有以下信息值得關注：

根據追蹤APP的測試反饋，英國可能會改變原來的追蹤模式，並將APP改為蘋果和谷歌都能使用的“去中心化”模式。

由於白金漢宮將會在夏天對公眾關閉，女王也會離開公眾視線長達數月，並將繼續長時間地住在温莎城堡。

英國皇家發言人表示，在疫情結束之前，女王不會參加任何社交活動，也不會對任何國家進行國事訪問。

英國四大工會組織今天聯合致函該報警告稱，除非鮑里斯同意在全國進行一場衞生安全革命，否則工會不會建議屬下300萬名會員復工。

工會組織還表示，他們要求企業僱主進行安全風險評估，並提出具體措施以確保員工在工作單位的健康安全。

英國將在本土重建部分藥物供應鏈，自產包括腎臟透析液在內的關鍵藥物，

*最後附剛剛更新的疫情圖表，包括英國病例增長、地區分佈。

英國每日報告的確診走勢

英國每日報告的死亡走勢：近兩日有所下降

英格蘭醫院內每日發生的真實死亡走勢：4月8日達到峯值，而後穩定下降

今天新增的269死亡中有33人發生在過去24小時，其餘為補報（下圖橙色）

英國確診，住院，死亡數據圖

英國每日確診率

英國英格蘭地區確診分佈

剛剛更新的全英確診具體地區分佈（包括********英格蘭、蘇格蘭、威爾士、北愛、醫護人員**********）**********

全英各地區每十萬人確診分佈（從高到低）

蘇格蘭地區確診具體地區分佈

蘇格蘭地區確診具體城市分佈

威爾士地區確診具體地區分佈

倫敦累計25829例，具體分佈如下：

過去24小時，英格蘭地區單日新增確診排名前三：Leeds (+37)；Essex（+34)；Norfolk****（+34）****；

全英具體病例分佈如下：