北美帝國帝國鍵政俠建議拼湊國際警察局維持全球軍事霸權——致喵星情報總局_風聞

喵星駐神聖泰拉秘密觀察員 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外時空種羣特別情報局 第M78宇宙9527號星系第三懸臂分站

神聖泰拉歷2020年7月21日；喵族公曆MEOW-9999年 小魚乾月 小餅乾日

分類：人類 軍事 地緣政治

威脅評級：星球7級；星系0級

是否建議執行撤喵行動：否

簡報： 如果讀者只看標題，以為本文要談的是規勸北美帝國放棄全球霸權，那就大錯特錯了。帝國主義是一條沒有回頭路的單行道。作者作為一位北美帝國的資深鍵政家，在《帝國利益》雜誌上旗幟鮮明地強調，北美帝國雖然無力再獨自擔任神聖泰拉星球上的國際警察，但是可以拉着眾小弟成立一個高效的國際警察局。（潛台詞是實質上架空聯合國安理會）當然，警長必須要由北美帝國擔任，至於更換裝備的資金則由大家公攤。全文透露着一股濃烈的西部牛仔氣息，頗有一言不合就拔槍主（heng）持(xing)正(ba)義(dao)的霸氣。

北約，或者北美帝國駐歐軍事力量，某種程度上是北美帝國給歐羅巴各國套上的一條沉重的枷鎖。即使鍍上了一層保衞自由世界共同利益的保護色，但無法改變其枷鎖的本質。這一點，大家都是心知肚明的。為了脅迫歐羅巴聯盟國家緊跟北美帝國的戰車，文章大談中俄威脅，對以默克爾為首的潛在中立派口誅筆伐。事實上，北美帝國與中央帝國的角力，將逐漸轉入戰略相持階段。在這一階段，各方勢力比拼的不僅是綜合實力，也是地緣政治手腕。除了與北美帝國同根同源的五眼聯盟國家之外，其他國家都是中央帝國的拉攏對象。回想當年北美帝國在兩次世界大戰期間左右逢源坐收漁翁之利，而老歐羅巴聯盟列強的殖民時代在戰後黯然落幕，想必不少人至今記憶猶新。今日之歐羅巴聯盟各國甚至是亞洲的旭日帝國，在內心深處傲慢自大如故。隨着北美帝國在次要戰略方向上的收縮，作為身處兩極之間的一股不容忽視的勢力，出於自身民族利益最大化考慮，未必不想效仿昔日之北美帝國火中取栗，幻想填補地緣政治力量空白，實現自身的再次崛起，甚至報當年一箭之仇。這種幻想，就是中央帝國在戰略相持階段爭取歐羅巴聯盟保持實質中立的契機。但是，爭取歐羅巴聯盟實質中立，絕不意味着中央帝國應該對他們卑躬屈膝。西方文明只尊重強者，也就是通常所説的勢利眼。中央帝國必須抓住一切有利時機，展示自身與北美帝國相持的決心與實力。以實力求尊重，以鬥爭求和平。只要中央帝國顯露出一絲怯懦和敗相，就會引來歐羅巴聯盟甚至是亞洲各國羣起圍攻。只要把歐羅巴聯盟的實質中立拖延到兩強之爭決出高下，就是中央帝國的勝利。生死之間，猶豫就會敗北。特此報告。

America’s Days of International Policing are Over

北美帝國擔任國際警察的日子結束了

Ramon Marks is a retired New York international lawyer. 

雷蒙·馬克斯是一位退休的紐約國際律師。（喵：資深鍵政俠）

The United States can no longer act as the lone, dominant military power around the globe

北美帝國無力繼續獨立維持全球軍事霸權。

The Trump administration indicated that it may change the number of U.S. troops in NATO when it threatened to remove those troops from Germany and possibly send them to Poland.

特元首政府表示，可能會改變派駐神羅帝國的軍隊人數。他威脅要從神羅帝國撤軍，並可能把這些部隊派往波蘭。

While Congress appears to have blocked that step, this festering controversy in NATO over troop levels and participation is not going to disappear. Ever since President Donald Trump took office, he has raised the complaint level by several decibels over the continuing failure of European NATO allies to meet a 2014 agreement to spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on their defense budgets by 2021. Of the major powers, Germany is the worst offender, spending only 1.3 percent of its GDP on defense, and not pledging to meet the 2 percent annual goal until 2031.

雖然國會似乎已經阻止了這一行動，但北約內部在軍隊數量和分擔壓力問題上的爭論不會消失。自北美帝國特元首上台以來，他把對北約盟國持續未能履行2014年協議的抱怨提高了幾個分貝。該協議要求各方在2021年前，將國防預算至少提高到國內生產總值（gdp）的2%。在主要大國中，神羅帝國是該協議最嚴重的違規者，國防開支僅佔其國內生產總值的1.3%，而且在2031年之前無法保證達到2%的年度目標。

The Trump administration has been verbally attacked for exerting excessive pressure on European allies to assume more responsibility for their defense. The intensity of his rhetoric has been seen as evidence that U.S. interest in NATO is waning, leading some people to fear that the United States could even “abandon” NATO, or substantially reduce its long-term strategic commitment to the Alliance. 

特元首政府因對歐羅巴盟國施加過度壓力，要求其承擔更多防衞責任而受到口頭攻擊。他的言辭激烈，被視為北美帝國對北約興趣正在減弱的證據，導致一些人擔心北美帝國甚至可能“放棄”北約，或大幅降低其對北約的長期戰略承諾。

Traditional Atlanticists decry the shrill tone taken by the Trump administration. Many believe that existing U.S. military levels in NATO should remain steady to help preserve stability and a historical cornerstone of the Atlantic Alliance. Angela Merkel’s Germany has darkly implied that Washington’s drive could prompt Europe’s drift toward some new kind of neutralism.

傳統的跨大西洋主義者譴責特元首政府採取的尖鋭語氣。許多人認為，北美帝國在北約的現有軍事水平應該保持穩定，以鞏固大西洋聯盟的歷史基石。默克爾女士領導的神羅帝國則暗示，華盛頓的壓力可能會促使歐羅巴聯盟走向某種新的中立主義。

“I can only say that we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands—of course in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain and as good neighbors wherever that is possible also with other countries, even with Russia,” she said after meeting with NATO and G7 officials.

她在會見北約和七國集團官員後説：“我只能説，我們歐羅巴人必須真正把命運掌握在自己手中——當然，我們要與北美帝國、不列顛尼亞王國建立友好關係，並儘可能與其他國家，甚至羅剎帝國保持友好關係。”。

Some partisans go so far as to claim that the administration wants to pull back from NATO to thank Russia for allegedly helping to get Trump elected president.

一些黨派人士甚至聲稱，北美帝國政府希望從北約撤軍，以感謝羅剎帝國幫助特元首上台的恩情。

Examples held out as evidence include Trump’s repeated praise of Vladimir Putin; a past, temporary freeze on aid for Ukraine; the reduction of U.S. troop presence in Syria; Trump’s recent invitation for Russia to join the next G7 Summit meeting (along with Australia, India and South Korea); and most recently, the administration’s perceived failure to press Russia on some evidence that it may have paid bounties to the Taliban for killing American troops in Afghanistan.

作為證據的例子還包括：特元首一再讚揚羅剎帝國的沙皇；暫時凍結對基輔大公國的援助；減少北美帝國在塞琉古王國的駐軍；邀請羅剎帝國參加G7峯會；拒絕就羅剎帝國買兇殺害北美帝國在中央部落地區的駐軍一事向羅剎帝國施壓。

While the rhetoric from Washington pressuring allies may be more intense than in the past, the reality is that the Trump administration has also taken strong stands both against Russia and in support of NATO, far outweighing any nice words by Trump about Putin.

雖然華盛頓向盟友施壓的言辭可能比過去更加激烈，但現實是，特元首政府在反對羅剎帝國和支持北約方面也採取了強硬立場，遠遠超過特元首對沙皇的任何口頭讚揚。

The United States has abrogated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia. The United States has announced its intention to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. The United States has threatened not to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Accord with Russia unless China also joins the treaty, and Russia agrees to strengthened verification mechanisms.

北美帝國已經廢除了與羅剎帝國的《中程彈道導彈條約》。北美帝國宣佈打算退出《開放天空條約》。北美帝國還威脅説，除非中央帝國也加入新的《削減戰略核武器條約》，而且羅剎帝國同意加強核查機制，否則不會延長該協議。

Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing. Trump has called for the development of new nuclear warheads and capabilities, potentially reigniting a nuclear arms race with Russia. The administration continues to refuse to limit U.S. missile defenses, a capability Russia has always vehemently opposed as destabil izing.

特元首威脅要恢復核試驗，並呼籲開發新的核彈頭和能力，有可能重新引發與羅剎帝國的核軍備競賽。北美帝國政府繼續拒絕限制開發和部署導彈防禦系統。羅剎帝國一直強烈反對這種破壞核平衡的舉動。

Since Trump’s election, the United States has also imposed a steady stream of confrontational sanctions against Russia. During his first month in office, Trump imposed sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Since then, he has imposed sanctions against wealthy Russian friends of Putin, imposed sanctions for Russian election meddling, and slapped restrictions on Russia’s energy and defense industries.

自特元首當選以來，北美帝國也不斷對羅剎帝國實施對抗性制裁。在上任的第一個月，特元首就針對羅剎帝國吞併克里米亞問題實施制裁。此後，他對沙皇的富豪朋友實施了制裁，對羅剎帝國干預選舉的行為實施了制裁，並對羅剎帝國的能源和國防工業施加限制。

In fact, earlier this year, the United States again slammed even more sanctions, this time against Russian backed individuals in Crimea. Also, it was Trump who ordered the closure of Russian diplomatic properties in New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC. It was Trump who has expelled sixty Russian diplomats from the United States following the Russian nerve gas murder in Britain.

事實上，今年早些時候，北美帝國再次實施了更多制裁。這次是針對涉及克里米亞問題的個人進行制裁。另外，也是特元首下令關閉羅剎帝國在紐約、舊金山、西雅圖和華盛頓特區的外交機構。是特元首在不列顛王國發生涉及羅剎帝國的神經毒氣謀殺案後，將60名羅剎帝國外交官逐出北美帝國。 

Besides directly confronting Russia with sanctions and rollback on nuclear disarmament, the United States has continued to show concrete support for NATO and Europe. The United States signed in 2018 a $4.75 billion deal with Poland, expanding deployment of Patriot missile defense systems facing Russia. That same year, the United States deployed a Stryker squadron as part of an enhanced NATO forward presence program, including a NATO “battlegroup” led by the United States. Now, the Trump administration has just announced plans to move U.S. troops from Germany closer to Russia in Poland. U.S. Marines have landed in Norway as part of NATO maneuvers.

除了直接對羅剎帝國實施制裁和推出核裁軍之外，北美帝國繼續對北約和歐羅巴聯盟給予 具體支持。北美帝國2018年與波蘭簽署了47.5億美元的協議，針對羅剎帝國的威脅擴大了愛國者導彈防禦系統部署。同年，北美帝國部署了一支史崔克戰車部隊，作為加強北約前方存在計劃的一部分，其中包括由北美帝國領導的北約“戰鬥羣”。現在，特元首政府又宣佈將軍隊從神羅帝國向波蘭靠前部署的計劃。作為北約演習的一部分，北美帝國海軍陸戰隊已經登陸挪威。

With respect to Ukraine, a country that is not even a NATO ally, the Trump administration has supplied about half a billion dollars of military aid, including the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles, something the Obama administration had always refused to do. The administration has also just authorized Ukraine to move those Javelins to its front lines in Donbass battling Russian supported separatists. The United States continues to outperform its NATO and Europen allies in supporting Ukraine in opposition to Russian pressures, accounting for up to 90 percent of all military aid to Ukraine, not to mention that the United States continues to play the major role in NATO.

關於基輔大公國這個連北約盟友都不是的國家，特元首政府提供了大約5億美元的軍事援助，包括標槍反坦克導彈，而此前奧元首政府一直拒絕這樣做。政府還剛剛授權基輔大公國將這些標槍導彈轉移到其在頓巴斯與羅剎帝國支持的分離主義分子作戰的前線。北美帝國支持基輔大公國反對羅剎帝國的表現遠遠超過歐羅巴聯盟各國，佔對基輔大公國所有軍事援助的90%，更不用説北美帝國繼續在北約中扮演着主要角色。

The reality is that the Trump administration is not kowtowing to Russia or cutting loose NATO. All it is doing is asking its allies to do more, reflecting Europe’s enormous growth in wealth and prosperity since the end of World War II, which was practically a century ago (seventy-eight years). Particularly with the rise of China, more burden-sharing in Europe is obvious. Japan has answered that call in Asia, significantly increasing its military capabilities in recent years. The United States can no longer act as the lone, dominant military power around the globe. As Japan understands and is already doing, European allies must pitch in and do more to help maintain global stability, particularly in their own backyard.

現實是，特元首政府沒有向羅剎帝國低頭，也沒有鬆綁與北約的關係。它所做的只是要求其盟國採取更多行動，使他們的國防實力與第二次世界大戰結束以來在財富和經濟繁榮方面的巨大增長相匹配。特別是隨着中央帝國的崛起，需要由歐羅巴聯盟在西線分擔更多防務壓力是顯而易見的。旭日帝國在亞洲響應了這一號召，近年來顯著增強了其軍事能力。北美帝國再也無力獨自支撐全球軍事霸權了。正如旭日帝國所理解並已經在做的那樣，歐羅巴聯盟必須投入更多的資源來幫助北美帝國維持全球穩定，尤其是在他們自己的後院。

But these arguments, calling for more sharing by European allies, are known and understood. A new imperative for rebalancing in Europe is emerging, is a good deal more urgent, and even more compelling. Cyber, space, drones, hypersonic and precision strike conventional missiles are revolutionizing warfare.

這些呼籲歐羅巴聯盟分擔壓力的觀點是眾所周知的。實施新一輪歐羅巴再平衡戰略的必要性正在顯現。這是一個更緊迫、更具説服力的議題。網絡、太空、無人機、高超音速和精確打擊的常規導彈正在徹底改變戰爭形態。

United States forward-operating bases located in NATO will become more exposed to first strikes by such systems than anything known in the past. With only a few minutes or even seconds of travel time, Russia could launch a surprise barrage of missiles and drone attacks upon every U.S. base and headquarters in Europe, in combination with instantaneous cyber and even space strikes.

位於北約的北美帝國前沿作戰基地將比以往任何時候都更容易受到此類系統的首次打擊。羅剎帝國只需幾分鐘甚至幾秒鐘的時間，就可以對北美帝國在歐羅巴聯盟的每一個基地和總部發動突然的導彈和無人機襲擊，或許再加上即時的網絡甚至太空打擊。

The threats posed by these new capabilities compel the United States and its allies to sit down and assess how they must reorganize their force structure in Western Europe to survive, meet and deter such new challenges. Preparing for warfare with massed infantry and armor such as Stryker squadrons is preparing for the past, not the future.

這些新能力所構成的威脅迫使北美帝國及其盟國坐下來，評估它們必須如何重組在西歐的武裝力量，從而保存自身並應對和遏制這種新的挑戰。像史崔克戰鬥羣這樣的部隊，是為過去那種大規模步兵和裝甲部隊交戰而準備的，難以應對未來的挑戰。

One adjustment that could be made would be shifting to a smaller U.S. base footprint in Europe. This would help assure survivability against sudden first strikes. Bringing some military resources that are overseas back to the U.S. strategic reserve could make it easier for the United States to respond to and counter a surprise missile attack, drone attack, or cyberattack on NATO Europe.

縮小北美帝國在西歐地區的基地規模是一個可選措施。這將有助於提高對突如其來的第一次襲擊的生存能力。將一些海外軍事資源收縮回北美帝國本土進行戰略儲備，可以使北美帝國更容易應對和反擊可能遭遇的突然襲擊，例如無人機攻擊或網絡攻擊。

Not only do all NATO allies need to meet their 2 percent budget commitments, more importantly, they need to coalesce on a common defense strategy that will address these new warfare challenges. The viability of maintaining a continuing, large U.S. military presence in Europe raises issues that go well beyond the need to reassure allies of U.S. steadfastness and resolve by simply maintaining its current mix of troop levels in Europe.

不僅所有北約盟國都需要履行其2%的預算承諾，更重要的是它們需要在共同的防禦戰略上聯合起來，以應對這些新的戰爭挑戰。繼續維持北美帝國在歐羅巴持續、大規模的軍事存在，其面臨的問題絕不僅僅是如何維持目前在歐羅巴地區的兵力結構或數量問題，而是要讓盟國確信北美帝國的堅定決心。（喵：賴着不走的堅定決心）

Retaining large operating bases in Europe may become a luxury that the United States and its allies can no longer afford. Perhaps the big threat will not be tanks surging through the Fulda Gap but new weapons systems, such as Russia’s Avangard, a hypersonic glide vehicle that is allegedly capable of traveling as fast as twenty-seven times the speed of sound toward any American forward base in Europe.

在歐羅巴地區保留大型軍事基地可能成為北美帝國及其盟國無力繼續負擔的奢侈品。也許最大的威脅不是羅剎坦克衝進富爾達缺口，而是新的武器系統，比如羅剎帝國的高超音速滑翔飛行器。據稱這種武器能夠以27倍音速向北美帝國在歐羅巴聯盟的任何前沿基地發動攻擊。

The military must prepare for a more hostile future. If it doesn’t, then the U.S. forces currently stationed in Europe run the risk of turning into a Maginot Line in the face of a new type of blitzkrieg.

軍隊必須為更加充滿敵意的未來做好準備。如果不這樣做，那麼目前駐紮在歐羅巴聯盟的北美帝國軍隊就有可能在新一輪閃電戰面前變成馬其諾防線。

閲後即焚 喵星萬歲