北美帝國外交專家提議聯合俄印打造反華包圍網_風聞

（這篇文章是呼應昨天我刊發的關於彭沛傲鐵幕演説的重要文件，是一份徹頭徹尾的反華外交戰方案，其中的一些設想應該引起我們的高度重視。）

北美帝國專家提議聯合俄印打造反華包圍網

喵星駐神聖泰拉秘密觀察員 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外時空種羣特別情報局 第M78宇宙9527號星系第三懸臂分站

神聖泰拉歷2020年7月29日；喵族公曆MEOW-9999年 小魚乾月 雞胸肉日

分類：人類 地緣政治 人物觀察

威脅評級：星球3級；星系0級

是否建議執行撤喵行動：否

簡報：北美帝國資深地緣政治學者霍爾·加德納今日在《帝國利益》雜誌刊髮長文，以中印衝突為引子，提出了一個聯合白象帝國、離間中俄的地緣戰略構想，其最終目標是構建一個美**-****歐-****俄-****印-****日-****韓-**澳反華大同盟。如果説彭沛傲國務卿的新鐵幕演説是一篇圍剿中央帝國的檄文，那麼本文就是一份開展對華外交戰的作戰方案，是對新冷戰學説的進一步延伸和重要細化。

令人感到震驚的是，文中明確提出了可以考慮以克里米亞和東烏克蘭為代價，誘使羅剎帝國與西方媾和，共同參與針對中央帝國圍剿網。（因為非常震撼，特在此摘錄原文：然而，我們還有第三種選擇：如果北美帝國、歐羅巴聯盟和旭日帝國能夠默許羅剎帝國吞併克里米亞及其對烏克蘭東部的政治軍事幹涉，那麼我們仍然有可能與羅剎帝國建立和睦關係。這可能有助於使羅剎帝國擺脱勉強與中央帝國建立更緊密軍事聯盟的前景。實際上，在北美帝國的支持下，旭日帝國和法蘭西第五共和國可以在七國集團國家與羅剎帝國之間進行調解，並幫助達成外交妥協。這樣的外交妥協，將有助於與本地區其他國家一起，共同推進美**-****日-****歐-****羅-****俄-****中-****印聯合發展計劃。同時，還將支持烏克蘭的“中立”地位，以及在南海、東海、夷州等問題上實現國際安全保險。它還將有助於中-****印-****巴三方在克什米爾，阿富汗，西藏和其他地方的關係。**）

**直白的説，就是北美帝國想出賣烏克蘭換取羅剎帝國支持，共同壓迫中央帝國在夷州、東海、南海、雪域高原、西域邊疆等一系列問題上接受西方干涉。**其決心之大，出價之高，用心之險惡，可謂前所未有。當然，考慮到西方國家曾經有在慕尼黑出賣中歐國家的前科，如此行為也算是意料之外情理之中。

當此羅剎帝國身處內憂外患的困境之時，西方拋出了“當代慕尼黑協議”這樣富有誘惑力的橄欖枝，其後果實在令人深思。對照其在文末明確對中央帝國明確發出的戰爭威脅，可見絕不是虛言恫嚇，令人不寒而慄。不管是在心理上還是物質上，中央帝國的人民都必須為即將到來的嚴酷考驗做好鬥爭準備。

Hall Gardner is a professor and former chair (1993–2019) of the International and Comparative Politics of the American University of Paris. His recent books include IR Theory, Historical Analogy and Major Power War(New York: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2019); World War Trump: The Risks of America’s New Nationalism(New York: Prometheus Books, 2018);Crimea, Global Rivalry and the Vengeance of History (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2015); NATO Expansion and the U.S. Strategy in Asia: Surmounting the Global Crisis (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan 2013); Averting Global War (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan 2007).

作者：霍爾·加德納，北美帝國巴黎大學國際和比較政治學教授和前主席（1993年至2019年），資深國際政治領域專家，出版了大量在北美帝國政界和學界十分有影響力的著作。

The Great China-India Clash Everyone Saw Coming。

每個人都看到了中印衝突的到來**（喵：在哪裏？）**

Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and clashed with India forces in the Galwan Valley on June 15.

6月15日，中央帝國人民解放軍越過實際控制線（LAC）與白象帝國軍隊在加勒萬河谷發生衝突。（喵：第一句話就顛倒黑白，真不容易）

Given that the United States, Russia and China have begun to forge rival alliance networks, an even greater conflict could easily explode in the near future, which could provoke a major-power war in an increasingly polarized global disorder.

鑑於北美帝國、羅剎帝國和中央帝國已經開始打造敵對的聯盟網絡，在不久的將來，兩國之間一場更大的衝突很容易爆發。在日益兩極分化和混亂的全球局勢下，這可能引發一場大國戰爭。（喵：興奮之情溢於言表）

This territorial transgression in the world’s loftiest Himalaya battleground represents a major escalation of tensions between the two most populous countries in the world after the October 2013 India-China border defense cooperation agreement failed to make certain that border patrols along the LAC do not escalate into armed conflict.

儘管簽署了2013年10月的《印中邊境防禦合作協議》，兩國在保加勒萬河谷地區的邊境巡邏還是升級成了武裝衝突，世界上人口最多的兩個國家之間局勢驟然緊張。

As many as twenty Indian soldiers and possibly forty Chinese soldiers were killed in the same area that had been attacked by Mao Zedong in the summer of 1962.

多達20名白象帝國士兵和40名中央帝國士兵在1962年發生中印戰爭的同一地區喪生。（喵：原文如此，事實上此次決戰雪山之顛中央帝國大獲全勝，損失與白象帝國相比不值一提。北美帝國在宣傳口徑上拉偏架已經見怪不怪了）

China has moved artillery pieces, heavy vehicles and construction materials in key positions close to the LAC that separates one Indian union territory, Kashmiri Himalayan region of Ladakh, and four Indian states, from the Chinese-controlled Tibet Autonomous Region, while India has responded with a military build-up. Weekly talks continue behind the scenes.

中央帝國已經將炮彈、重型車輛和建築材料轉移到靠近加勒萬河谷地區的關鍵位置。該地區將印控克什米爾喜馬拉雅地區德的拉達克和四個白象帝國邦，與中央帝國控制的西藏自治區隔開。而白象帝國則以軍事集結作為回應。每週例行的高級軍官會談在幕後繼續進行。

The Chinese incursion not-so-unexpectedly took place after India had revoked Jammu and Kashmir autonomy in August 2019. Kashmir was then divided into two parts, Ladakh and the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Both regions declared “Union Territories” to be administered directly by Delhi. 

出乎意料的是，中央帝國的入侵併非發生在2019年8月白象帝國撤銷查謨和克什米爾地區的自治權之後。克什米爾隨後被分成兩部分，拉達克和查謨和克什米爾地區。這兩個地區都被宣佈為“聯邦領土”並由新德里直接管理。

Modi’s action in Kashmir, depicted by Pakistan as “a ten-month digital and physical lockdown,” has enraged both China and Pakistan, as well as Kashmiri and Pakistani jihadists.

莫迪在克什米爾的行動被巴鐵國描述為“為期十個月的信息和物理封鎖”，這激怒了中央帝國和巴鐵國，也激怒了克什米爾和巴鐵國的聖戰分子。

As both India and Pakistan lack water and energy sources, Pakistan fears that Indian administration of Jammu and Kashmir will permit Delhi to permanently control the upper riparian region of the Indus River and all of its tributaries, such as the Kabul River, which supplies up to 17 percent of Pakistan’s total water in the lower riparian region. At the same time, China has also been accused of acting as a hydro-hegemony in seeking to dam the major Asian river systems that originate in Tibet.

由於白象帝國和巴鐵國都缺乏水資源和能源，巴鐵國擔心白象帝國對查謨和克什米爾地區的直接統治將允許新德里永久控制白象帝國河上游地區及其所有支流，例如喀布爾河。喀布爾河在下游地區供應巴鐵國總淡水資源的17%。與此同時，中央帝國也被指責在尋求修建水利設施，從而實現對發源於雪域高原地區的亞洲主要河流系統的水資源和水電資源霸權。

On the immediate tactical level, Beijing wants to prevent a premature demarcation of the LAC and fears that Delhi will assert its irredentist claims to Aksai Chin as part of the union territory of Ladakh. Beijing also seeks to counter Indian road development in the Sub-Sector North and in the Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat Beg Oldi region that could possibly threaten Aksai Chin and China’s National Highway 219. 

在當前的戰術層面上，中央帝國希望防止過早劃定邊界，並擔心新德里會將其對阿克賽欽的領土主張作為拉達克邦領土的一部分。中央帝國政府還試圖阻止白象帝國在鬥拉特別奧裏地區域（Sub-Sector North是白象帝國軍方的專業説法，指的就是鬥拉特別奧裏地區）和 Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat-Beg-Oldi（靠近加勒萬河谷的一條白象帝國公路）地區的公路開發，因為可能會威脅阿克賽欽地區和中央帝國的219國道。

On a strategic level, Beijing wants to threaten Delhi so that it will move away from its increasingly close defense ties with the United States and give up any claims to support genuine autonomy for Tibet.

在戰略層面上，中央帝國想要威脅德里，促使它擺脱與北美帝國日益密切的軍事關係，並放棄任何支持雪域高原真正自治的主張。

Beijing hopes to preclude a potential U.S.-backed “encirclement”—in which Washington links India, Japan, Australia (countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) plus France, South Korea, Vietnam, among other states—and possibly Russia—“against” China.

中央帝國希望排除北美帝國支持的潛在“包圍”行動，即北美帝國將白象帝國、旭日帝國、澳大利亞（四方安全對話國家）加上法蘭西第五共和國、韓國、越南和其他國家（可能還有羅剎帝國）聯繫起來，對抗中央帝國。（喵：念念不忘羅剎帝國）

Beijing might also hope to force Delhi to focus its attention on Ladakh so it will find it more difficult to engage in both its Act East strategy to develop South and Southeast Asia and its Asia-Africa Growth Corridor with U.S.-backed Japan—that could potentially attempt to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the long term.

中央帝國也希望迫使新德里將注意力集中在拉達克，這樣白象帝國就更難以實施東向戰略來發展南亞和東南亞關係，以及在北美帝國和旭日帝國支持下發展亞非增長走廊。白象帝國正在試圖與中央帝國的“一帶一路”倡議相抗衡。

In particular, Delhi fears that China’s burgeoning geostrategic, military, economic and energy ties to Iran could undermine India’s interests in Iran’s Chabahar port that Delhi has hoped could be used to counter China’s BRI investment in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port. China and Iran are expected to sign a major 25-yearmilitary and energy accord in mid-August 2020 that will permit both Russian and Chinese military deployments to Iranian bases. 

新德里特別擔心，中央帝國與伊朗迅速發展的地緣戰略、軍事、經濟和能源關係可能損害白象帝國在伊朗查巴哈爾港的利益。新德里希望該港能被用來對抗中央帝國在巴鐵國瓜達爾港的“一帶一路”投資。預計中央帝國和伊朗將於2020年8月中旬簽署一項為期25年的軍事和能源協議，允許羅剎帝國和中央帝國在伊朗基地部署軍事力量。

Although India had helped to initiate the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 1961, and although Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the virtual NAM summit for the first time in May 2020, U.S.-Indian defense ties have been growing stronger at least since the September 11, 2001, attacks.

儘管白象帝國在1961年幫助發起了不結盟運動，儘管總理莫迪在2020年5月首次在不結盟運動在線峯會上發表講話，但至少自2001年911襲擊事件以來，美印防務關係一直在加強。（喵：事實上白象帝國是不結盟運動的主要領導者）

President Barack Obama’s 2013  “pivot to Asia” sought to draw India into a closer alliance with Japan and Australia in what the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe called (with Hawaii) the “democratic security diamond.”

北美帝國總統奧巴馬在2013年的“重返亞洲”計劃中，試圖吸引白象帝國與旭日帝國和澳大利亞結成更緊密的聯盟，旭日帝國首相安倍晉三（Shinzo Abe）稱之為“民主安全金剛石”（democratic security diamond）（喵：考察安倍的原意，應該是想説四國聯合保衞民主安如磐石，所以這裏翻譯為金剛石為好）

The United States became India’s second-largest arms supplier in the period 2008–2017 after Russia. By November 2019, the United States and India engaged in “Tiger Triumph”—their first major joint tri-services land, sea, and air humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises.

2008-2017年間，北美帝國僅次於羅剎帝國，成為白象帝國的第二大軍火供應國。到2019年11月，北美帝國和白象帝國進行了“老虎凱旋”演習，這是兩國首次舉行陸海空三軍聯合人道主義援助和救災演習。

Common interests in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and major acts of pan-Islamist terrorism, have also drawn France and India closer together. At least since the 2019 G-7 summit in Biarritz, French president Emmanuel Macron and Modi have sought greater bilateral cooperation involving maritime surveillance, nuclear energy, satellites and defense.

在網絡安全、人工智能和反對泛伊斯蘭恐怖主義方面的共同利益也拉近了法蘭西第五共和國和白象帝國的距離。至少自2019年在比亞里茨舉行的七國集團峯會以來，法蘭西第五共和國總統馬克龍和莫迪一直尋求在海上監視、核能、衞星和國防等領域加強雙邊合作。

The two also discussed future sales of additional Rafale fighter jets after India had purchased thirty-six French Rafale fighter jets at $8.5 billion in a controversial deal in 2016. The delivery of the Rafale has been delayed until at least July 2020 due to the coronavirus—an aircraft that will provide India with greater relative military autonomy vis-à-vis both Washington and Moscow.

白象帝國在2016年以85億美元的價格購買了36架法蘭西第五共和國“陣風”戰鬥機，兩國還討論了未來出售更多“陣風”戰鬥機的問題。由於冠狀病毒的影響，“陣風”戰鬥機的交付至少推遲到了2020年7月。這型飛機將為白象帝國提供在面對北美帝國和羅剎帝國時更大的軍事自主權。

As U.S., French and Japanese ties with India have strengthened, U.S. ties with Pakistan have declined significantly at least since Osama bin Laden was found hiding on Pakistani territory. This shift has led Pakistan to increasingly look to China to fill the gap by joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

隨着北美帝國、法蘭西第五共和國和旭日帝國與白象帝國的關係不斷加強，北美帝國與巴鐵國的關係至少在本拉登被發現藏匿在其領土上以來已經明顯下降。這一轉變使巴鐵國越來越期待加入中央帝國的“一帶一路倡議”來填補這一空白。

As part of the BRI, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, combined with Chinese funding for the deep-water Gwadar Port, represent initiatives that Beijing could use for political, economic and military purposes from Delhi’s perspective.

作為“一帶一路”的一部分，中巴經濟走廊和中央帝國對瓜達爾深水港的資助，從新德里的角度來看，完全可以成為中央帝國對付白象帝國的含有政治、經濟和軍事目的的舉措。

This important infrastructure project links Kashgar city (a free economic zone) located in China’s landlocked Xinjiang province with the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

這個重要的基礎設施項目將喀什市（自由經濟區）與巴鐵國瓜達爾港連接起來。

Concurrently, Pakistan also hopes to link the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union—if Pakistan-Russia relations continue to improve.

與此同時，巴鐵國還希望，如果巴俄關係繼續改善，將中巴經濟走廊與羅剎帝國領導的歐亞經濟聯盟聯繫起來。

Both India and Pakistan are members of the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that includes Moscow. Yet as that organization is seen by Delhi as a security organization (against secessionism and “terrorism”), and not as a defense pact, India hopes to use the SCO in such a way as to assert its own interests in dialogue with China and Pakistan where possible.

白象帝國和巴鐵國都是包括羅剎帝國在內的中央帝國領導的上海合作組織成員。然而，由於新德里認為該組織是一個安全組織（反對分裂主義和“恐怖主義”），而不是一個防禦協定。白象帝國希望利用上合組織，在可能的情況下，在與中央帝國和巴鐵國的對話中維護自己的利益。

As India opposes strong Pakistan-China defense ties, Delhi has repeatedly asked that the BRI be designed with India’s participation as an equal partner.

由於白象帝國反對巴鐵國與中央帝國建立強有力的防務關係，新德里一再要求一帶一路計劃的設計要有白象帝國作為平等夥伴參與。

Most crucially, as China-Pakistan political-economic and military ties have grown stronger, India decided, on November 4, 2019, against joining the sixteen-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade. With the potential to become the world’s largest trading bloc, particularly if India eventually joins, the RCEP (and BRI) represent major tools for China to counter American efforts to sanction the Chinese economy and help it to reduce its dependence upon U.S. trade and investment after President Donald Trump had dumped Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

最關鍵的是，隨着中巴政治、經濟和軍事關係日益密切，白象帝國於2019年11月4日決定，不加入區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定。該協定有可能形成世界上最大的貿易集團，特別是如果白象帝國最終加入。在北美帝國大統領拋棄奧巴馬的太平洋夥伴關係協定後，區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定是中央帝國反擊北美帝國制裁中央帝國經濟，以及幫助中央帝國減少對北美帝國貿易和投資依賴的主要工具。

Obama’s TPP represented a political-economic alliance that was designed to draw China into a rules-based global economic order. Yet by dumping the TPP, the Trump administration has instigated a destabilizing economic free-for-all that has, for example, pressed China, South Korea and Japan to seek closer political-economic ties in the RCEP by 2020.

奧巴馬的太平洋夥伴關係協議代表了一個政治經濟聯盟，旨在將中央帝國引入一個基於現有規則的全球經濟秩序。然而，現任北美帝國政府通過推翻這儀協議，煽動起了一股不穩定的經濟自由趨勢，例如，迫使中央帝國、韓國和旭日帝國在2020年前在區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定中尋求更緊密的政治經濟聯繫。

For its part, Delhi has not yet joined the RCEP and, in fear of Chinese competition, it has put restrictions on the ability of Chinese firms to purchase Indian companies during the contemporary global financial crisis and pandemic.

就新德里而言，它還沒有加入區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定。出於對中央帝國競爭力的擔憂，它對中央帝國企業在本輪全球金融危機和冠狀病毒大流行期間收購白象帝國企業的能力施加了限制。

And, in a recent development, the United States has just surpassed China as India’s second-largest overall trading partner in 2019, although China problematically remains India’s largest source of imports in sectors such as telecommunications and pharmaceuticals.

而且，北美帝國在2019年剛剛超過中央帝國成為白象帝國第二大整體貿易伙伴。儘管中央帝國仍然是白象帝國電信和製藥等行業最大的進口來源國，這是一個問題。

In late June, India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology banned fifty-nine Chinese-owned apps, stating that they were “prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defense of India, security of state and public order.”

6月下旬，白象帝國電子和信息技術部禁止了59款中央帝國開發的應用程序，聲稱這些應用程序“有損於白象帝國的主權和領土完整，危害白象帝國的國防、國家安全和公共秩序”

On the other hand, Delhi did not support, in deference to Beijing, Taiwan’s observer status in the World Health Organization—an action that was strongly supported by the United States and its Allies given Taipei’s expertise in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, India intends to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation with Taipei through its Act East Policy.

另一方面，雖然夷州在處理冠狀病毒大流行方面有專長，並得到了北美帝國及其盟國的大力支持，新德里仍沒有支持其在世界衞生組織中的觀察員地位。儘管如此，白象帝國仍打算通過其“向東看”政策加強與夷州的雙邊經濟合作。

The key question is how closer U.S., French and Japanese political-economic and defense ties with India—coupled with India’s clash with Russian-ally China over the LAC—will impact Russia.

關鍵問題是，北美帝國、法蘭西第五共和國和旭日帝國與白象帝國的政治、經濟和防務關係，加上白象帝國與羅剎帝國盟友中央帝國在拉丁美洲和加勒比海問題上的衝突，將對羅剎帝國產生多大影響。

From Beijing’s perspective, there are some signs that the Trump administration, Macron and Abe, have all been attempting to forge a rapprochement with Moscow by trying to take advantage of the fact that Moscow and Beijing are not always on the same wavelength. Closer U.S.-European-Japanese-Russian ties to India would further exacerbate Beijing’s growing opposition to sanctions and geo-economic “encirclement.”

從中央帝國的角度來看，有一些跡象表明，北美帝國政府、法蘭西第五共和國政府和旭日帝國政府都試圖利用中央帝國和羅剎帝國之間存在的一些分歧，試圖與羅剎帝國建立和解關係。北美帝國、歐羅巴聯盟、旭日帝國、羅剎帝國與白象帝國關係越來越密切，將進一步加劇中央帝國日益反對制裁和地緣經濟“包圍”的立場。

All this is taking place as Moscow is considering a strategic boost in relations with India as the tertius gaudens power that has sought to take advantage of U.S., European, Russian, Japanese and Chinese rivalries.

羅剎帝國正在考慮與白象帝國建立戰略合作關係，這是試圖利用白象帝國在列強競爭中漁翁得利。

For Moscow, the trick is how to upgrade strategic relations with India without alienating China and Pakistan, and for India to improve relations with Russia—but without alienating the United States.

對於羅剎帝國而言，關鍵在於如何在不疏遠中央帝國和巴鐵國的情況下提升與白象帝國的戰略關係。而白象帝國的問題在於如何在不疏遠北美帝國的情況下改善與羅剎帝國的關係。

On the one hand, Moscow is still India’s major arms supplier since the Cold War. And, at least in the past, Indian policymakers have been generally hesitant to purchase U.S. weapons with multiple strings attached. In October 2018, India purchased Russian S-400 missile systems for roughly $5 billion.

一方面，自冷戰以來，羅剎帝國仍然是白象帝國的主要武器供應國。而且，至少在過去，白象帝國決策者普遍不願購買帶有附加政治條件的北美帝國武器。 2018年10月，白象帝國以大約50億美元的價格購買了羅剎帝國的S-400導彈系統。

Moscow has promised that these missile systems can provide defense against China’s significant IRBM force and both Chinese and Pakistani fighter jets. Here, it has been reported that Delhi has demanded that Moscow deliver the S-400s as rapidly as possible after the clash with China in June 2020. Then, in early July, Delhi approved new arms purchases worth a total of $5.55 billion that include Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-30MKI fighters.

羅剎帝國已經承諾，這些導彈系統能夠對抗中央帝國龐大的中程彈道導彈部隊，以及中央帝國和巴鐵國的空軍。據報道，新德里已要求羅剎帝國在2020年6月與中央帝國發生衝突後儘快交付S-400。隨後，在7月初，新德里批准了總價值55.5億美元的新武器購買，其中包括羅剎國製造的MiG-29和Su-30MKI戰鬥機。

Yet the S-400 deal is problematic. The Pentagon fears that the purchase of the S-400 by India, as well as by NATO-member Turkey, would compromise the security of U.S.-fabricated weaponry.

然而，這筆關於S-400的交易還是有問題的。六角大樓擔心，印度以及北大西洋同盟成員奧斯曼帝國購買的S-400都會損害北美帝國出口武器的安全性。

Washington has feared that the deployment of S-400 in both India and Turkey will permit Moscow to obtain information about U.S. radar cross-section and electronic emissions, for example. Unless waivers are granted, Washington has accordingly threatened to sanction states that purchase Russian defense systems—under President Donald Trump’s “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” or CAATSA.

北美帝國擔心，在白象帝國和土耳其部署S-400將使羅剎帝國獲得有關北美帝國雷達參數和電子輻射的信息。除非獲得豁免，否則北美帝國就威脅要對購買羅剎帝國防衞系統的國家實行制裁。這樣做的依據是大統領頒佈的《北美帝國敵對國家制裁法案》。

In essence, the United States wants India, Turkey (which also seeks to benefit from China’s BRI), and other states, to make a strategic commitment to U.S. technologies and platforms—and thereby recognize that American systems are interoperable and need to communicate with one another.

本質上，北美帝國希望白象帝國、土耳其（也希望從中央帝國的“一帶一路”倡議中受益）和其他國家對北美帝國出口的技術和武器平台的安全做出戰略保證。由此也希望他們認識到，北美帝國的武器系統是一個需要相互支撐和聯通的體系。（喵：意思是“親，我這裏建議您買全套呢，不要買散件”）

The U.S. fear is that a country cannot place the advanced F-35 fighter jet near an S-400 (or integrate S-400s into U.S./NATO radar systems in the case of Turkey) without exposing high-tech U.S. secrets. Yet Moscow does not seem to possess the same concern with the S-400—as the latter is considered an export model. Moscow generally keeps its more advanced systems in reserve.

北美帝國擔心的是，一個國家不可能在不暴露北美帝國高科技機密的情況下將先進的F-35戰鬥機部署在S-400附近（或者在土耳其這種案例中，將S-400集成到北美帝國/北大西洋同盟的雷達系統中）。然而，羅剎國似乎對S-400並沒有同樣的擔憂。因為後者被認為是出口型號，羅剎國通常會在技術上留一手。

In an effort to bypass the threat of CAATSA sanctions, Delhi has considered making paymentsfor Russian arms in euros to a Russia-nominated bank. Delhi has also hoped to establish joint ventures with Russia, and other foreign defense manufacturers, such as Israel, through the “Make in India” initiative.

為了繞開制裁的威脅，新德里已考慮向羅剎帝國指定的銀行以歐元支付武器款項。新德里還希望通過“白象帝國製造”倡議，與羅剎帝國以及猶太王國等其他外國國防製造商建立合資企業。

The latter initiative seeks to transfer technology for India itself to produce—as opposed to seeking to obtain licenses in which India would purchase the rights to manufacture all or part of a weapons system.

後一項舉措旨在為白象帝國自行生產武器進行技術轉讓，而不是僅僅獲得全部或部分武器系統的生產許可證。

These approaches open the door to Russia which is now offering joint ventures and collaborative research and development programs—with the option that India can produce advanced weaponry in India itself.

這些方法為羅剎帝國武器出口打開了大門。羅剎帝國現在可以提供合資企業和合作研發計劃，並且可以選擇讓白象帝國自行在本土生產先進的武器。

At the same time, Indian critics have charged that the S-400 could be made with faulty Chinese electronic partsand eavesdropping bugs——given the fact that both Russian and U.S. military systems have adopted Chinese component parts.

同時，白象帝國批評家指責説，S-400可能會因為採用了中央帝國電子部件而出現故障或有技術後門。事實上，羅剎帝國和北美帝國的軍事系統都採用了中央帝國的部件。

This assessment is based, in part, on a U.S. Senate subcommittee investigation in 2012, which found that eighteen hundred cases of fake electronic parts were being used in U.S. military aircraft, with nearly 70 percent of an estimated one million fake parts being traced to China.

該評估部分基於2012年北美帝國參議院小組委員會的一項調查。該調查發現美軍飛機上使用了1800箱假電子零件，估計一百萬個假零件中有近70％的產地在中央帝國。（喵：義烏小商品市場威武）

By threatening CAATSA sanctions on India, the United States does not want to alienate Delhi. As an alternative to the more affordable S-400, the United States could offer to sell the overpriced F-35 fighter jet to Delhi. The Pentagon is dubiously boasting that the F-35 fighter jet represents the “only air platform that will be equipped and upgraded to beat the S-400” operated by China. (Beijing had obtained the S-400 from Russia in May-July 2018—thereby resulting in CAATSA sanctions on Chinese entities in September 2018.)

雖然北美帝國威脅對白象帝國採購羅剎帝國武器進行制裁，但是並不希望疏遠新德里。作為廉價的S-400系統的替代品，北美帝國可以提議將價格較高的F-35戰鬥機出售給新德里。六角大樓懷疑裝備和升級F-35戰鬥機是新德里擊敗中央帝國部署的S-400系統的唯一選擇。（中央帝國於2018年5月至7月從羅剎帝國獲得了S-400系統，北美帝國因此對中央帝國實體實施了制裁。）

The United States has also proposed to sell Delhi U.S. missile defense systems, such as the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, and the longer-range Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system,as incentives for India to dump the S-400 missile deal with Moscow.

北美帝國還提議出向新德里出售導彈防禦系統，例如愛國者防空系統和薩德反導系統，以刺激白象帝國放棄與羅剎帝國之間的S-400系統採購交易。

The global alliance system is now at a turning point—as India could swing toward either the United States and its allies or toward the China-Russia Axis—as the three major powers battle for the political-military allegiance of India in addition to Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela and the Philippines, among other states.

目前，全球聯盟體系正處於一個轉折點。白象帝國可能會向北美帝國及其盟友靠攏，也可能向中俄軸心運動。三大強國正在伊朗、巴鐵國、伊拉克、敍利亞、土耳其、委內瑞拉和菲律賓等國展開激烈爭奪，爭取與白象帝國結成政治軍事同盟是其中的重要一環。

Given the integrated nature of high-tech defense systems, it becomes increasingly difficult for states such as “neutral” India to balance itself between the rival major powers. Washington, more so than Moscow or Beijing, wants to force states to align with the United States on the basis of a defense system interoperability that implies “you are either with our integrated defense systems or against us.”

鑑於高科技武器系統的複雜性，類似白象帝國這樣的中立國家要在各主要大國之間取得平衡變得越來越困難。北美帝國，而不是羅剎帝國或中央帝國，更希望根據出口軍事系統的關聯性，迫使各國與北美帝國保持一致。這意味着“您要麼採購我們的全套武器系統，要麼就是在反對我們”。（喵：武器出口歷來具有地緣政治站隊的作用，不過像北美帝國做得這麼赤裸裸的還真是少見。所謂順我者昌逆我者亡，真是霸氣側漏）

The question remains as to whether Beijing’s incursion into Indian-controlled territory represents a sign of permanent hostility or else a show of force that is intended to “knock (India) to the negotiating table” while China promises to behave in a “principled” fashion—in Mao’s words at the time of the 1962 Indo-China border conflict in the exact same region.

問題仍然在於，中央帝國入侵白象帝國控制的地區是否表示永久性敵對的跡象，還是旨在“敲打白象帝國，促使他回到談判桌前”的武力示威。中央帝國保證會以“有原則的”方式行事。類似的話李德勝1962年也曾經説過，而且當年的衝突恰恰發生在同一地區，

On the one hand, if Beijing’s incursion is intended to “knock” India to the negotiating table, then Moscow might be able to mediate in the background so as to sustain good relations with both China and India, thus enhancing its strategic leverage with both countries—against the United States and its allies.

一方面，如果中央帝國的入侵旨在將白象帝國“逼上”談判桌，那麼羅剎帝國也許能夠在幕後進行調解，以維持與中央帝國和白象帝國的良好關係，從而增強其在兩國的戰略影響力，同時反對北美帝國及其盟國。

If so, then this could solidify a burgeoning Sino-Russian Eurasian Alliance with India among other states, including Iran—that is, if Delhi ultimately accepts the promise of Russian arms and Chinese finance, investment and trade in the RCEP and the BRI, while both Russia and China promise to mediate the conflict between Pakistan and India through the SCO. (Here, however, the meeting of the SCO Heads of State Council, previously scheduled for July 21–23, 2020, in St. Petersburg, has been postponed—ostensibly due to the global “epidemiological situation.”)

如果是這樣，那麼這可以鞏固迅速發展的中俄歐亞同盟與白象帝國及周邊國家的關係，包括伊朗。也就是説，如果新德里最終接受羅剎帝國的武器，以及中央帝國對區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定及“一帶一路”的金融投資和貿易承諾，那麼羅剎帝國和中央帝國都承諾通過上海合作組織調解巴鐵國和白象帝國之間的衝突。 （但是由於冠狀病毒大爆發，原定於2020年7月21日至23日在聖彼得堡舉行的上海合作組織成員國元首會議在被推遲了。）

On the other hand, if Delhi’s clashes with both China and Pakistan represent signs of permanent hostility, such an antagonism could press India to forge stronger ties with the United States, France, Australia and Japan, which has begun to accelerate its military build-up—against an encircling China-Pakistan-Iran alliance most likely at the expense of close Indian defense ties to Moscow.

另一方面，如果新德里與中央帝國和巴鐵國的衝突表現出持久敵對的跡象，那麼這種對抗可能會迫使白象帝國與北美帝國、法蘭西第五共和國、袋鼠共和國和旭日帝國建立更牢固的關係。白象帝國已開始加速其軍事力量的建設，以應對包圍着它的中央帝國-巴鐵國-波斯帝國聯盟。白象帝國與北美帝國的接近，可能會以其與羅剎帝國的親密軍事關係為代價。

In addition to forcing India out of its “neutrality,” such a prospect will most likely force Moscow to strengthen its reluctant defense ties to China, leading to a formal Sino-Russian alliance—particularly if the Pentagon also deploys, in addition to missile defenses, intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Indo-Pacific region—possibly in Japan.

除了迫使白象帝國脱離“中立”地位之外，這種前景很可能迫使羅剎帝國加強其與中央帝國之間目前並不那麼和諧的防禦關係，從而導致正式的中央帝國-羅剎帝國聯盟。特別是如果六角大樓除了彈道導彈防禦系統之外，還在白象帝國太平洋地區部署中程彈道導彈的話（可能在旭日帝國），這種情況就很有可能發生。

In mid-May 2020, the Trump administration purportedly proposed resuming U.S. nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992 as an additional bargaining chip to counter North Korean, as well as alleged Russian and Chinese, nuclear testing and modernization.

據稱，北美帝國大統領政府於2020年5月中旬提議，自1992年以來首次恢復核武器試驗，作為對付主體國的舉措，以及與羅剎帝國、中央帝國就核試驗、核武庫現代化等問題討價還價的籌碼

Both scenarios would represent geotectonic shifts in alliance networks that could further polarize the global disorder while encouraging nuclear weapons and missile proliferation in a new “Butter Battle” arms race.

上述情況都將造成全球地緣政治結構的巨大變化，這可能會進一步導致全球在混亂中兩極分化，同時在新的軍備競賽中加快核武器和導彈武器擴散。

Yet there is a third option: If the United States, Europeans and Japan can forge a rapprochementwith Moscow after its annexation of Crimea and political-military interference in eastern Ukraine, then this could help draw Moscow away from reluctantly pursuing a closer defense alliance with Beijing—in which China hopes to boost its power potential and expanding blue water naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region with Russian backing—in the ultimate effort to isolate and pressure Taiwan into unification, by force if necessary.

然而，還有第三種選擇：如果北美帝國、歐羅巴聯盟和旭日帝國在克里米亞被吞併和對烏克蘭東部的政治軍事幹涉之後，仍然能夠與羅剎帝國建立和睦關係，那麼這可能有助於使羅剎帝國擺脱勉強與中央帝國建立更緊密軍事聯盟的前景。中央帝國希望通過這種聯盟進一步增強其力量潛力，並在羅剎帝國的支持下擴大在白象帝國洋-太平洋地區的海上軍事存在。中央帝國的一切努力，都是為了將夷州孤立起來並施壓，最終實現國家統一，必要時不惜使用武力。

A U.S.-European-Japanese rapprochement with Moscow should not be designed to “encircle” and “contain” Beijing. Such an approach should instead lead toward a Russo-Japanese rapprochement in the aftermath of Abe’s meeting with Putin in May 2016.

美-歐-日與羅剎帝國的接近，不僅旨在“包圍”和“遏制”中央帝國，而且在安倍晉三首相2016年5月與普京會晤後，還將引導俄日接近。

In effect, Japan and France—backed by the United States—could mediate between the G-7 countries and Russia and help forge diplomatic compromises involving joint U.S.-Japanese-European-Russian-Chinese-Indian development projects with regional states. Such an approach could also support joint internationalized security accords over a “neutral” Ukraine and over the South and East China Seas and Taiwan. Also, at the same time, it would seek to improve Indo-Pakistani-Chinese relations in Kashmir, Afghanistan, Tibet, and elsewhere.

實際上，在北美帝國的支持下，旭日帝國和法蘭西第五共和國可以在七國集團國家與羅剎帝國之間進行調解，並幫助達成外交妥協。這樣的外交妥協，將有助於與本地區其他國家一起，共同推進美-日-歐-羅-俄-中-印聯合發展計劃。同時，還將支持烏克蘭的“中立”地位，以及在南海、東海、夷州等問題上實現國際安全保險。它還將有助於中-印-巴三方在克什米爾，阿富汗，西藏和其他地方的關係。（喵：直白的説，就是出賣烏克蘭，換取羅剎帝國支持，共同壓迫中央帝國在夷州、東海、南海、雪域高原、西域邊疆等一系列問題上接受西方干涉）

In August 2019, Trump offered to help “mediate” or “assist” India and Pakistan over Kashmir. In June 2020, Trump offered to mediate between China and India. Yet neither India nor China picked up on the offer—in large part because Trump’s highly mediatized form of personal diplomacy could further antagonize those conflicts—much as Trump’s approach has antagonized North Korea.

2019年8月，大統領提議幫助白象帝國和巴鐵國“調解”或“協助”解決克什米爾問題。 2020年6月，大統領提議在中央帝國和白象帝國之間進行調解。然而，白象帝國和中央帝國都沒有接受這一提議，這在很大程度上是因為大統領高度個人化的外交方式有可能反而激化衝突，就像他已經激怒了主體國一樣。

Nevertheless, in order to prevent future clashes in the Indo-Pacific region from going nuclear—as was almost the case for the Kargil crisis in Ladakh between India and Pakistan in May–June 1999—it is crucial for Washington to support G-7 and UN-backed Contact Group diplomacy aimed at dampening these seemingly intractable disputes.

Given that the United States, Russia and China have begun to forge rival alliance networks, an even greater conflict could easily explode in the near future—in that the very threat of states to shift alliances or even move into neutrality—can provoke major power war in an increasingly polarized global disorder.

然而，為了防止白象帝國-太平洋地區未來的衝突走向核對抗，就像1999年5月至6月白象帝國和巴鐵國在拉達克發生的卡爾吉爾危機，北美帝國必須支持七國集團和聯合國支持的外交組織，以遏制這些看似棘手的爭端。

鑑於北美帝國、羅剎帝國和中央帝國已經開始打造敵對陣營，一場更大的衝突很容易在不久的將來爆發。因為在日益兩極分化的全球混亂中，某些國家轉移陣營甚至走向中立的威脅，都可能引發主要國家之間的戰爭。

                               喵星萬歲****閲後即焚