羅思義：中國的經濟活力讓我很顯老

【文/ 羅思義】

首先，我必須説，來到澳門有種回到家的感覺，雖然我之前從未來過這裏。我等下會解釋原因。

從2000年到2008年，這8年間，我曾被任命為倫敦經濟與商業政策署署長。當署長期間，我的最主要成果之一是倫敦規劃，即倫敦的戰略發展規劃。

經濟是什麼？經濟與超大型經濟區的發展有什麼關係？這個領域我再熟悉不過了。

羅思義在“新時代大講堂”（圖片來源：中國日報）

經濟規劃為何強調“五年”

也許聽起來有些奇怪，但對於經濟而言，預測未來五年比預測未來半年更容易。原因在於，經濟的短期趨勢會受制於各方面因素。最極端的情況下，連天氣以及種種相關的內在聯繫都會對經濟有很大影響。

你以五年或十年為週期開始規劃，那才會對一個戰略區域的發展起到至關重要的作用。這是由影響經濟的最基本因素決定的。所以，今天我不會過多談論大灣區短期的發展，儘管現在的局勢吸引了一些國際關注。

我最想做的事情是，跳出短期的發展，退後一步，看看大灣區有哪些戰略性的發展。你在審視某個區域的發展時，必須理解其獨特性，因為世界上每個主要經濟區都是獨一無二的。

換個角度看大灣區

在我看來大灣區的關鍵特點是什麼？我覺得最關鍵的是，它是全世界兩個最重要的科技中心之一。另一個是大洋對岸的加利福尼亞州。全世界範圍內沒有其他的高科技發展中心能夠和加州或者大灣區相匹敵。

1. 左手微信右手WhatsApp，經濟學家比出了這方面的差距

我認為大灣區的這一特點決定了它的其他特點。最明顯的是它的高科技發展。以華為為代表，現在華為是世界上最先進的科技通信公司。或者以騰訊為例，在西方我用WhatsApp，在中國我用微信。現在我覺得微信要比WhatsApp好用多了，得有50%。華為的總裁説得很明白，美國指控華為竊取知識產權，這很荒唐。那些技術美國還沒有，但我們有。

2. 獨特性一出現，牽一髮而動全身

但如果你看整個地區，它是相互關聯的。這個區域，尤其是香港，在國際金融中心方面也有領先優勢。澳門則是全球最重要的休閒娛樂中心之一。這些領域聯繫緊密，並不是偶然。除了普通製造業和零售業，還有你所能想到的其他行業。為什麼？因為，一旦一個龐大的高科技中心出現，它會決定整個區域的諸多特點。

我對澳門發展很感興趣，比如澳門的藝術。因為這樣一個區域必定會有繁榮的文化。整個地區將做出調整，來適應其文化水平極高且訓練有素的勞動力。因此 ，在大灣區不可能只有科技實驗室。大家下班後就回家，整晚看電視消遣。人們不會滿足於此。另一個問題是基礎設施建設。大家都知道港珠澳大橋。但我知道，有人説中國的基建已經足夠完備，這種説法太愚蠢了，簡直是笑話。

圖片來源：中國日報

一個區域越是發達，它對基建的需求也會改變，它需要不同類型的基建。你需要大量的基建，基建在未來是必不可少的。比如信息與通信技術的發展。因為如果出現國際信息通信技術中心，大灣區馬上就會成為其中之一。如果國際金融中心在香港得到進一步發展，那將會產生大量的信息通信技術基建需求，不僅是交通運輸需求。

關於這一點，另一個問題，我稱之為“訪客業”。如果一個城市擁有巨大的國際通信綜合體，涉及到國際和金融，香港就是如此，這種商業需要的基建。遊客也會從中受益。倫敦是國際旅客到訪最多的城市之一，訪問倫敦的人差不多三分之二是為了旅遊觀光，三分之一是為了商務。但他們住的是同一批酒店，使用一樣的幾個機場，對基建的需求高度重合。所以我會選用“訪客業”這個詞。

兩大灣區怎麼比？學者拉出了一組數據

我們來看一些更基礎更具體的事情，即大灣區的關鍵。首先，要意識到大灣區的規模何其龐大。如果你把大灣區的地區生產總值當做一個整體拿出來對比，那麼全世界只有12個國家的國內生產總值比大灣區高。但這並不是大灣區真正的活力所在。

1. 比增速

美國最新國內生產總值統計數據所顯示的增速是2.1%，中國的增速是6%。這表明，中國的經濟增速是美國的三倍。大灣區不僅是經濟規模非常龐大，而且它的增速比美國快得多。這就是它的活力所在。有一個方面特別明顯，我覺得自己在中國特別過時。我依然在用現金，這顯得我簡直有120歲。我時不時得去銀行匯款到倫敦。我的翻譯跟我説，你看這銀行裏只有老人和外國人。

就是這樣。我能不能再次呼籲？我希望微信支付和支付寶的更新，多少也能方便一下外國人。希望他們能讓外國人，更容易開賬號。這樣我就不用像現在這麼過時了。我之前講過，你用微信的話會覺得它更好用，功能更豐富。這不是我一個人的想法，因為我有從國外來中國的朋友，他們都註冊了微信賬號改用微信。他們説微信比WhatsApp好用。

圖片來源：網絡

2. 高鐵建設對比

至於高鐵系統，中國的高鐵比歐洲和美國先進太多。荒唐的是，美國宣傳它的高鐵時速超過140公里，而中國高鐵的時速是它的兩倍。我想説的是，你已經看到在大灣區，或者在某種情況下，這兒的一些領域的科技水平已經領先於加州。

從經濟學的角度聊香港，答案很清晰

我最後想講的一點是：

那些在香港不斷製造麻煩的人是不會得逞的。他們連自己的真實目的都不敢説，所謂的“分裂主義”的目的，他們沒有任何成功的機會。

同時，香港的經濟基礎也不會發生改變。香港不可能被從中國分裂出去拖到太平洋其他地方去。香港的關鍵和大灣區的關鍵是和中國內地相連。

領頭雁與大灣區

再給大家看一個比較圖，這種類比常用於亞洲分析。它叫雁形模式理論，技術最先進的國家會帶動其他國家進步。中國的大灣區就是那隻領頭雁，帶動其他地區發展。

不講套話的總結

最後，總結一下我的演講。各位現在就在全球最重要的兩個高科技中心之一，只有這裏和加州最發達。這促進了大灣區的整體發展，因為這裏需要金融、需要娛樂、需要基礎設施建設、需要這裏的一切。所以，我再次強調，大灣區是全世界最關鍵的地區之一。這並不是客套話。我希望我的演講能讓各位明白因為這是事實。非常感謝！

（本文原載於《中國日報》，觀察者網已獲授權轉載）

英文原文：

Right, well, first I have to say I feel extremely at home here although I’ve never been to Macao. I’ll explain why.

I was appointed to be head of London’s Economic Policy for eight years from 2000 to 2008. One of the key products of that is something called the London Plan，which was the strategic plan for the development of London.

So therefore, this question of what the economy is and what its relationship to the development of very large economic areas is something that I’ve extremely familiar with.

It might sound peculiar, but in the economy, it is easier to predict what will happen in the next five years than it is to predict what will happen in the next six months.

The reason for that is the short-term trends in the economy can be affected by all sorts of things. I mean, in the most extreme cases, sometimes by the weather and all sorts of inter-conjunctions.

Whereas once you begin to take five-year or ten-year period, and that’s what’s important for the development of a strategic area.

It’s determined by the most fundamental factors that affect the economy.

So I’m not going to discuss very much about what purely temporary developments are in the Greater Bay Area , as some of them are attracting some international attention at the present time.

OK, the fundamental thing, therefore, I want to do is, I want to step back from the short-term developments and look what are the strategic developments of the Greater Bay Area.

If you want to look at the development of an area, you have to understand what is unique about it because every major economic area in the world is unique.

What I think is the key feature of the Greater Bay Area.

For me the most decisive thing - it is one of the two great technological centers of the world.The other one is exactly across the Pacific Ocean, in California.

There are no other centers of the development of high technology in the whole world which match either California or the Greater Bay Area.

This is what defines, as my view, all the other features.The most obvious one is the question of its high technological development.

It is symbolized, for example, by Huawei, which is now the world’s most advanced technological telecommunications company.

Or Tencent, for example. I have to use WhatsApp when I’m in the West and I have to use WeChat in China and now I know that WeChat is 50% better than WhatsApp in the West.

It was put very, very well by the head of Huawei, he said the United States accuses Huawei of stealing from it. This is ridiculous. We have things that the United States doesn’t have.

But if you take this region, it’s an interconnected fashion. It’s also got leads in international financial centers, particularly in Hong Kong.

In Macao, it’s got one of the most important leisure centers in the whole world.

And it is not an accident that these are connected. That’s in addition to all the normal manufacturing and retail and things you would’ve expected.

Why? Because once you have a huge high technology center, this is going to determine many, many features about the entire region.

I was very interested to hear about the developments of Macao, for example, in the field of art because that’s what it’s going to have.

The whole region will have adjustments to an extremely high cultural level of an extremely skilled workforce.

And therefore, it’s not a big center like that: you’re just gonna have technological laboratories and then everybody’s going to go home and spend the evening watching the TV. They are not gonna do that.

Another is the question of the infrastructure. OK, of course everybody knows about the bridge. But I know that sometimes it’s a foolish idea in China that China has enough infrastructure.

I think this is a joke.

As the region becomes more developed, of course the needs for a different type of infrastructure will change. You’re gonna have huge infrastructure. This is going to be needed.

It’s going to be, for example, the development of information and communications technology.

Because if you have the development of international ICT centers, which is what’s going to happen here, if you have the development of an international financial center further in Hong Kong, this is going to have tremendous ICT with infrastructure requirements and not just transport ones.

Another question though that’s going to be on the relation to what I will call visitourism.

If you have a huge international complex of ICT, which is international and financial, which is Hong Kong, basically the same infrastructure which is required for the business part can be used for tourists.

Roughly in London, which is one of the most internationally visited cities in the world, two-thirds of the people who come to the city come for a visit for tourism and one third come for business but they’re using the same hotels，the same airports, the same overlap in infrastructure.

That is why I would use the term visitorism.

Let’s then look at these fundamentals-what are the more specific things. That is the key of the question of the Greater Bay Area.

Firstly, it’s important to realize just how big it is. If you take the GDP of the Greater Bay Area, if it were a separate country, there are only 12 countries in the world which would have a higher GDP than the Greater Bay Area.

But even that doesn’t capture what is the real dynamic of the Greater Bay Area.

If you take the latest GDP statistics of the United States, its growth rate is 2.1%. China’s growth rate is 6%.

This means that China’s economy is growing three times as fast as the United States.

So therefore, not only is the Greater Bay Area already very, very large, but it is growing much faster than that of the United States.

And that’s what gives it its particular dynamic.

One is the most obvious: I feel so old-fashioned in China. I actually use cash and, this makes me, look about 120 years old.

And occasionally I have to track and make go into a bank to make transactions with London and the person who came and interpreted said, look at this bank, the only people in this bank are old people and foreigners.

So that’s it.

Can I make an appeal? I wish that the new changes made by WeChat and Alipay would make it a little bit easier for foreigners to open up accounts. Then I won’t have to stay quite so old-fashioned as I am at the present time.

OK. I already mentioned that if you take WeChat, it’s just much better, it’s much skilled.

That’s not just me in my opinion because I have friends who come to China and they change and they take up WeChat accounts.

They say it’s just better than using WhatsApp.

OK. As for the high-speed train system, this is just so much more advanced of anything in Europe and the United States.

I mean, it’s even ridiculous, the United States advertises its high-speed train or something that goes more than about 140 km/h whereas the Chinese ones are going twice as fast.

What I want to say about that is you already see in the Greater Bay Area or a situation whereby the technological level of the Greater Bay Area in some areas is already ahead of California.

The people who have kept creating the problem in Hong Kong have no chance of success.

They don’t really even dare to say their real aims，which are separatist aims and they have no chance of carrying out this whatever.

Meanwhile the economic fundamentals of Hong Kong are not going to change.

Hong Kong can’t be towed away from China and parked somewhere else in the Pacific.

The key of Hong Kong and the key of this region is that it’s linked to mainland China.

Just to give you another comparison. This is an analogy often used of Asia.

It’s called the “flying geese” development. It shows the most technologically advanced country pulls the other forward.

The Greater Bay Area in China is the lead geese in the development of these geese.

Finally, therefore, just to summarize what I said.

You’re here in the middle of one of the two  most important high technology development centers in the world. Nowhere except here and California is as advanced as that.

This stimulates the integrated development of the entire GBA because it needs finance, needs recreation, it needs infrastructure, it needs everything else in the region.

So again, I’m saying that the GBA is one of the most important regions in the entire world, not to be polite.

I hope what I’ve tried to show you is this because it’s the truth.

Thank you very much.