傅瑩：新冠病毒疫情之後的世界

【文/傅瑩】

清明之痛

清明節是中國人為追思逝去親人而掃墓的日子，2020年4月4日清明節，也成為全國人民哀悼新冠病毒疫情中罹難者的日子。人們沉浸在哀傷中，緬懷沒能等來這個春天的人，思考能從災難中學到什麼。

21世紀第三次危機中世界領導力的缺失

這場疫情是進入21世紀以來，人類經歷的第三次改變世界議程的重大危機。在前兩次--2001年的9•11事件，尤其是2008年的國際金融危機中，美國與其他主要國家密切合作，共克時艱，讓危機在多邊進程中逐步化解。然而這一次，新冠病毒疫情切實威脅到人類更加廣泛意義上的人的安全，已經吞噬了二十多萬生命，且仍然沒有停下腳步。然而這次，素以世界領導者自冠的美國沒有釋放團結合作的信號，也完全沒有體現出發揮全球領導作用的意願和能力。

更令中國人寒心的是，美國一些高官和政客，喋喋不休地污衊中國，試圖將自身的估計不足、反應遲鈍和陷入困境歸咎於中國。這讓我更加深刻地意識到，近年美方試圖讓中國成為自身所有問題替罪羊的做法，是多麼地阻礙當今世界迫切需要的大國理解與合作。

清華大學戰略與安全研究中心主任、外交部前副部長傅瑩4月29日在《經濟學人》發表文章“中美為何必須攜手抗疫”

緣何要玩弄推責的遊戲？

記得2月13日，正值武漢最艱難的時刻，我與幾位學者來到慕尼黑出席安全會議，還臨時邀請中國的公共衞生專家參團與會，介紹抗疫情況。世界衞生組織亦有專家團隊與會，呼籲關注流行病的危險。美國參會的高官和政客未對疫情表達絲毫關注，更談不上了解中國的抗疫信息，只顧就華為5G等問題指責中國。現在，同樣是這些人，包括國務卿蓬佩奧和某些議員，反過來批評中國掩蓋數據，真想問他們，難道不知道中方早在1月3日便開始向各國，包括美方，通報新發傳染病信息？難道不了解中方1月11日便公佈病毒基因序列，讓包括美國在內的各國開始研究檢測和疫苗？

我們中國人比任何人都更希望對病毒的傳播危險能有更早的認識、處置得能更加迅速。然而這是一個人類全然未知的病毒，醫療專家們爭分奪秒地確認足夠的證據，在對病毒的人傳人有了明確結論後，馬上於1月20日公佈，並且3天后即封城武漢。中國人民奮起抗疫，付出巨大的代價，大量生命失去、經濟和社會生活停頓。許多國家在後續疫情中，學習了中國獲得的經驗，包括社交距離、戴口罩、及時收治確診病例，乃至避免醫療資源的透支。

然而，這些專業和科學上的信息對美國一些政客似乎並不重要，他們關心的與中國進行的戰略競爭而不是合作，以免導致美國的主導地位被中國取而代之。如果中美兩國無法在這場嚴重的全球災難面前攜手，甚至，如果兩國無法在現行國際架構內解決彼此分歧，我們需要考慮，這將對全球體系意味着什麼？

中美關係與未來的終局

最終，是否就要遂了美國這些強硬勢力的心願：中美對抗、徹底脱鈎？我們是否準備好了面對全球產業鏈、供應鏈遭到破壞，全球化勢頭逆轉，其他國家選邊站隊，世界分裂為對立的陣營？若此，人類在冷戰後致力於推動和平與發展的勢頭何以延續？

不管外界對中國的全球合作努力怎麼猜度，中國首先要做好自己的事，保護人民生命安全，儘快恢復正常的經濟和社會生活。但是，這並不意味着只顧自己和單打獨鬥。中國已經在助力他國：向100多國提供物資援助，並向其中一些國家派出醫療支援隊伍，中國工廠的機器為供應包括美國在內的各國物資需求日夜轉動。

中外國情不同，具體防疫模式各國自有高招，中國不能也不想強加於人，更不會搞模式輸出、抑或追求地緣政治利益，但是我們必須向有困難和有需求的國家伸出援手。大疫當前，同舟共濟才是正途。

疫後的世界將如何取決於今天的作為

疫情的爆發加速了世界的深刻變化。面對無形和非傳統的強大敵人，美國以大國戰略競爭為優先考慮的霸權模式，不注重解決實際問題，既不能很好地保護人民，也無力承擔全球化之下的新型國際責任。

世界加快多極化進程，人類恐已無法接受新的霸權,很難設想世界將再次被某個或某幾個國家所主導。今日之世界，所有國家利益相連、命運與共，需要構建平等夥伴關係，超越傳統思維，希望能走出一條以相互尊重、平等公正、合作共贏為特徵的新路來。

我們正在步入一個比以往更加相互依存的時代

中國是在和平發展中成長起來的，既不是前蘇聯，也不想成為下個美國。中國需要一個和平合作的國際環境，並願為此做出努力。我們認識到，在所有的國家都擺脱新冠病毒威脅之前，人類不可能奢談戰勝疫情。

國際社會期待中美兩國開展協調。3月27日習近平主席與特朗普總統通了電話，確認流行性疾病是人類共同的敵人，國際社會只有共同應對才能戰而勝之。這個信息給期待中美合作的人帶來了希望。

包括中國和美國在內的世界各國通力合作，對取得成功至關重要。當務之急，一是應當分享控制疫情的信息；二是世界，尤其中美兩國，應當在疫苗和特效藥的研發、生產和分發上開展合作，實現全球信息開源和成果共享；三是應當幫助醫療條件較弱的國家，防止更大規模的疫病爆發；四是應當維護供應鏈、產業鏈的穩定與安全，防止世界經濟次生災害。

如果全球不能合作、中美不能合作，將會產生難以估量的後果。未來取決於今天的作為。前路還有許多風險。痛定思痛，世界正在步入一個各國和各國人民比以往更加相互需要的時代。

（本文中文版經授權首發於觀察者網，英文版發表於《經濟學人》，翻頁閲讀英文版）

The World After COVID-19

THE TRADITIONAL Chinese festival of Qingming, or tomb-sweeping, on April 4th, is a day to remember loved ones who have passed. This year Chinese across the country mourned lives lost to the covid-19 pandemic. Immersed in sadness, we cherish the memories of those who will not see this or any other spring—and we reflect on what can be learned from the tragedies.

This pandemic is the third major unconventional security crisis in the 21st century that has refocused the world’s agenda. During the previous two crises—the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001 and particularly the financial crisis of 2008—America joined hands in solidarity and co-operated with other major countries through multilateral processes, which saw the world through the havoc.

This time, a pandemic literally threatens the safety of humankind. It has claimed more than 200,000 lives worldwide and shows no sign of subsiding. Yet this time America, which insists on being treated as the world’s global leader, has demonstrated neither a commitment to solidarity and co-operation, nor a willingness or capacity for global leadership.

What has particularly dismayed the Chinese is a smear campaign against China by some American politicians and high-ranking officials, who try to shift the blame for their own underestimation of the threat, their slow response and the consequences. For me, the blame-game lays bare American ambitions to scapegoat China for its problems. And this, sadly, makes understanding and co-operation very difficult among major countries, if not impossible, at a time when the world needs it most.

On February 13th when the crisis in Wuhan was at its peak, I attended the Munich Security Conference with a team of Chinese scholars. I brought along a public-health expert to brief attendees on China’s struggles to contain the outbreak. Experts from the World Health Organisation were there too, to alert the world to the dangers of the epidemic. American officials and lawmakers at the conference paid little attention to this issue or the information that China had to offer. They were preoccupied with stigmatising China on such topics as Huawei and 5G.

Now these same people, like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some congressmen, have turned around and with no respect for the truth started accusing China of concealing data about the virus. They should be asked: did China not inform the world, including America, as early as January 3rd about the disease as its danger was gradually revealed? Do they not know that the virus’s genetic sequence was made public by China on January 11th so that countries including America could start work on testing, a treatment and vaccine?

We in China, more than anyone, wish the dangerous nature of the virus had been revealed earlier and the response faster. Given the virus’s novelty, medical professionals raced to gather evidence. As soon as its human-to-human transmission was confirmed, the information was immediately announced to the public on January 20th. Wuhan was completely locked down three days later. The Chinese people paid a high price in terms of lives and in pain to the economy and society, as normal activities were suspended. Many countries later on learned from our experiences of social distancing, wearing face masks and hospitalising confirmed cases, while preventing medical resources from being overwhelmed.

However, such professional and scientific information seems unimportant to some American politicians. What matters to them is their strategic rivalry with China, rather than co-operation, for fear that American dominance might be lost to China. If China and America can’t co-operate even in the face of this global disaster, if they cannot eventually resolve their differences within the existing international structure, we have to consider what this means for the current global system.

Will American hawks see their wish fulfilled: confrontation and a complete decoupling of China and America? Is the world prepared for the consequences, from disruptions to global industry and supply chains, and a reversal of globalisation, to countries having to take sides as the world splinters into opposing blocks? What would that mean for humanity’s post-cold war ambitions to promote peaceful development?

Though others express distrust towards China’s global co-operation, our priority is actually protecting the lives and safety of our own people and restoring normality to the economy and society as soon as possible. But this doesn’t mean China is going it alone. We have already sent medical assistance to more than 100 countries and medical professionals to some of them. Chinese factories are running day and night to meet the world’s demand for medical supplies, including America’s.

Countries have different national conditions and each finds its best way of dealing with the crisis. China cannot and will not impose its ways upon others, nor seek geopolitical gain. Yet it must lend a hand to those in trouble and in need. We are all in this together.

The outbreak has accelerated profound shifts in the world. Faced with an invisible, unconventional yet ferocious enemy, America’s model of hegemonic dominance—which prioritises geostrategic competition at the expense of solving real problems—fails to protect people. It is even less useful for shouldering the new types of international responsibilities that are required in our globalised world.

As we move towards a multi-polar era, humanity may no longer accept a new hegemon. It is hard to see how the world can be dominated again by a certain country or group of countries. Countries will see that their fortunes and fate are closely linked, and they should work together as equal partners. We need to transcend traditional thinking and find a new path, one that hopefully can be defined by mutual respect, equality and justice, and mutually beneficial co-operation.

The world is entering an era of unprecedented interdependence. China has grown through peaceful development. It is neither the former Soviet Union, nor intent on becoming the next America. The Chinese aspire to a peaceful and co-operative international environment and are willing to work for it. The pandemic will be beaten only when every country is free of its threat.

The international community needs China and America to co-ordinate. President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump spoke by phone on March 27th. Both leaders agree that the pandemic is humanity’s common enemy and the international community can overcome it only through a collective response. Their message gives hope to those who want to see China and America working together.

The co-operation of all countries in the world, and between China and America in particular, is vital for success. First, the world should share information about containing the virus. Second, the world, and especially China and America, must work together on finding, manufacturing and distributing vaccines and virus treatments, sharing information in an open-source manner globally. Third, nations with weaker public-health systems must be helped to stem the pandemic’s spread. Fourth, the stability and security of manufacturing and supply chains must be preserved to prevent secondary disasters in the world economy.

A lack of global co-operation, and a failure for China and America to work together, will have terrible consequences. The post-pandemic era will be shaped by our actions of today. Many risks still lie ahead. Yet the crisis helps us appreciate that our world is entering an era when countries and peoples need each other more than ever before.

(End)

本文系觀察者網獨家稿件，文章內容純屬作者個人觀點，不代表平台觀點，未經授權，不得轉載，否則將追究法律責任。關注觀察者網微信guanchacn，每日閲讀趣味文章。