張維為對話斯蒂格利茨：特朗普再當選，會有什麼黑暗後果？-張維為、斯蒂格利茨

當地時間11月3日，2020美國大選日。

眼下兩位候選人不分伯仲，而這場選舉也被視為關係美國乃至世界格局變動的重要事件。

日前，復旦大學中國研究院院長張維為對話諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、世界銀行首席經濟學家斯蒂格利茨，提及此次大選，斯蒂格利茨教授認為相比特朗普，拜登更具有民主價值，也能重新把美國帶回正軌。張維為教授則認為，美國選舉制度下產生的領導人越來越短視，恐怕很難將美國帶出危機。

本文為對話第二部分“選舉就能救美國嗎？”，更多內容請點擊#張維為對話斯蒂格利茨#。

**斯蒂格利茨：**我們現在看到，美國社會對民主黨候選人、前副總統拜登的支持噴湧而出。這種程度的參與，人們覺得美國迎來了一個轉折點，整個國家處於威權統治之下——我們有特朗普這麼一號威權主義人物——他試圖分裂這個國家。我們還有另一號人物，拜登，他高度忠於民主價值觀，試圖彌合社會的分歧。尤其是那些平時不參與政治的年輕人，他們這次的參與程度是現象級的。其實全社會各個年齡段都參與其中，以前從不參與的人現在變得非常積極。我希望能夠形成一股制衡的力量，剎住我前面描述的這股不正之風。

**楊晗軼：**如果特朗普連選連任怎麼辦？這對美國體制來説意味着什麼？金錢統治似乎已經根深蒂固，它庇護並延續着美國這種新自由主義資本主義的生命。如果美國無法通過漸進式改良實現自我更新，未來會發生什麼？大家都知道美國這種資本主義模式不可持續，但究竟會發生什麼？會發生內爆，引發更大的危機，進而威脅世界和平嗎？

**斯蒂格利茨：**首先我想説，我認為接下來會非常清楚，大多數美國人將選擇民主道路，選擇拜登，對此我比較有信心。許多美國人跟你問着同樣的問題。特朗普再當一屆總統會產生什麼黑暗的後果？老實説，我們不知道。一部分原因在於，它取決於參議院眾議院的選舉結果，這是美國政治裏的制衡機制，但遺憾的是僵局才是更可能的出現的結果。

過去兩年總統在讓國會立法方面可以説是比較失敗的，這種僵局很可能持續下去。不幸的是，這意味着兩點。一、美國無法解決它面臨的重大問題，社會上明顯存在的不滿情緒將繼續發酵。這將削弱美國應對挑戰的能力。

它導致的另外一個問題在於，特朗普是個威權主義者。他不理解民主價值觀，腦子裏沒有這根弦。他喜歡籤行政命令，喜歡突破規範甚至法律。

不幸的是，他把自己人塞進司法部門，導致司法部門無法履行它本來的職能。説句實話，我很擔心，很擔心。但我還是要重複剛才的話。我對最終的結果抱有很大信心，相信我們美國人將作出正確的選擇，相信我們眼裏的這段噩夢將在明年1月20日結束。

**張維為：**先説選舉，從我們收集的資料來看，拜登在民調等方面處於領先地位，但反對他的力量仍然很強勁。很快我們就會看到結果。

你在書中常常提到進步時代（老羅斯福、塔夫脱、威爾遜）、羅斯福新政（小羅斯福）和偉大社會（林登·約翰遜），這都是美國通過重大改革贏得挑戰的先例，但相較於這三個歷史先例，今天的美國正如你在書中詳細描述的那樣，金錢政治、金元民主的力量比當年強大得多，新興社交媒體在很大程度上是受資本力量左右的，社會也要分裂得多。過去推動整個美國社會更多是靠中產階級，不斷往上走的中產階級。現在整個社會可以説是分裂的，到處都在講身份政治。這種重大改革都需要強有力的、有能力、有遠見的領導人。我懷疑美國未來短期內出不了這樣的領導人。

至於中美關係，我由衷希望我們兩國能克服當前階段的困難。白宮裏面有一羣冷戰鬥士，我認為這非常愚蠢，你根本沒法遏制中國這樣的國家。它是130個國家的最大貿易伙伴，擁有全世界最大的中產人口，而且是真的有財產的中產人口，它還是世界頭號貿易大國。你沒法遏制這樣的國家。這是我要傳遞的最基本的信息。拜登提出美國面臨四大挑戰：大流行病、空前的不景氣、氣候變化以及種族鴻溝。我認為除了種族問題我們幫不上什麼忙，另外三個大流行病、（經濟）不景氣和氣候變化，美國都需要中國的幫助。中國也做好了幫助美國的準備。11月或者明年1月之後，不管美國誰掌權，希望中美兩國關係都能得到極大的改善。這不僅是我們兩個國家的事，也關乎全人類。

**楊晗軼：**張教授，您提到美國下一任……毫無疑問美國面臨着危機，能夠幫助美國渡過危機的人必然得是一個強有力的領導人。我想問的是，對美國的未來而言，拜登是這樣一個強有力的領導人嗎？

**張維為：**我不太確定。從我讀的材料來看，他性格不是很強勢，但這説不準，也許等到他成為領導人之後，會展示出我們還沒見到過的另一面，成為強勢領導人。我們在此祝願美國能得到對它而言最好的結果。

美國未來的領導人不但要強勢，還要有遠見，能看到長遠的未來。這回到了我對西方政治體制的批評上來，它現在已經產生不了眼光長遠的領導人，產生出來的都是着眼當下、目光短淺、煽動民粹的領導人。這成了一種趨勢，是非常遺憾的。

**斯蒂格利茨：**我認為，確實如你所説，一個好的領導人身上要集合許多特質，比如鑄造共識，我認為拜登在這方面將表現得非同尋常的出色，尤其在上一屆總統制造嚴重分歧之後，他要把國家重新凝聚起來。我認為在這方面他將做得非常出色。

我還是抱有極大的期望。在這一切塵埃落定之前，你不可能知道誰將是下一個羅斯福。但每個時代都呼喚着不同類型的領導人。我們無可避免地需要一個療傷的過程。我希望拜登能夠成為這樣一個領導人，這正是這個國家所需要的。

（翻頁查看英文版）

Stiglitz: what we’re seeing right now in the United States is an outpouring of Democratic support for Vice President Biden. The level of engagement, the sense that America is at a turning point, it is authoritarian, we have one person- Trump being an authoritarian figure- trying to divide the country. We have another person, Biden, trying to bring us together, a person who’s deeply committed to democratic values. Especially among the young people who often are not engaged in politics, the extent of their engagement is phenomenal, but it’s across the board: people who never before got engaged in politics are very much engaged,  phoning… That is- I hope- the check on all these abuses that I have described a minute ago.

**Yang Hanyi：**Trump got reelected? What will happen to the American system, because it seems to me that monetocracy is so entrenched that it protects and prolongs the kind of neoliberal capitalism? What if America fails to incrementally or progressively renew itself? We all know it’s unsustainable, but what will happen after that, will it implode into an even bigger crisis with negative implications for world peace? What will happen?

Stiglitz: First, let me say I feel fairly confident that in a couple of weeks’ time it will be very clear that a large majority of Americans will have chosen to go in the direction of democracy and the direction of Biden. Many of us are asking precisely the question you’re asking. What are the consequences, the dark consequences of another term of Trump. Quite honestly,we don’t know. Partly it depends on what will be the outcome in the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is where the checks and balances do come in, but I’m afraid it’s more likely to gridlock. The president basically has had very little success in getting legislation through Congress over the last two years, and that kind of gridlock is likely to continue. Unfortunately, what that means is two things. It means that America will not be able to address some of the major problems, and that means the discontent that is very apparent will grow. And it will undermine the ability of America to respond to the challenges that we face.

The other problem that it poses is that Trump is an authoritarian figure. He doesn’t understand and incorporate in his mindset very strong democratic values. He likes to use executive orders, likes to ignore norms and even laws.

Unfortunately he has packed the judiciary, so the judiciary isn’t performing its functions that it should. So quite frankly, I’m worried. I’m worried. But let me repeat what I said. I have a lot of faith in the end in America I do believe that we Americans will make the right decision, and that what we view as a nightmare will be over on January 20th.

Zhang Weiwei: First on the part of this election. From the sources we have collected, Biden leads in opinion surveys and in some areas, but there seems to be still a strong counter force. So we will see very soon. You often refer to the Progressive Movement, the New Deal, and Great Society, so all these are historical precedents where the United States engaged in meaningful reforms and overcame its challenges. But compared with these three historical precedents, you see, today’s United States, as you have elaborated in your book, you have a much stronger monetized politics, money-oriented democracy, and also the rise of the new social media, to a great extent also controlled by the power of capital, and the society is more divided. It used to be at that time more driven by the middle class, the rising middle class. Now, it’s a somehow divided society, it’s about identity politics. And all of these need strong, competent, and visionary leaders, I wonder whether you see this kind of leadership in the near future.

For China-US relations, I indeed hope that we will overcome at this particular stage. In the White House you have some cold warriors, I think it’s very stupid, you cannot contain a country like China, which has over 130 countries as its largest trading partner, and you have the world’s largest middle class 400 million people, real middle class with properties, and the world’s largest trading nation. You cannot contain this kind of country. So this is my basic message. I think, when Biden spoke about the four major challenges for the United States, the pandemic, the unprecedented recession, climate change, and racial divide. I think, except for racial divide, we cannot do much about it, for the rest three, pandemic, recession and climate change, United States needs China’s help. And China is also ready to help. Hopefully whoever in power after November or January we’ll have much better US-China relations. It’s not only for our two countries, but also for mankind.

Yang Hanyi: Professor Zhang, you’ve mentioned that the next… Because America certainly faces a crisis, and the man who help America navigate out of the crisis will have to be a very strong leader. My question is, is Biden such a strong leader for the future of America?

Zhang Weiwei: I’m not very sure. From whatever I can read, he’s not a strong character. But who knows, maybe when he becomes a leader, he can show his particular side which we do not  know he can be a strong leader, or his team can be strong. So let’s hope for the best for the America’s own interest.

The new leader in the United States should become not only strong, but also visionary, with a long-term vision. That’s my critique of the Western political system. You cannot somehow produce now leaders with long vision. They are very short-term, short-sighted and populist. That’s the trend. It’s a pity.

Stiglitz: So I think actually, as you were saying, there are many things that make for a good leader, building consensus,  and Biden will, I think, be extraordinarily good over that, especially after a president who’s been very divisive, bringing the country together. I think he will do an extraordinary job in that.

I’m, again, very hopeful. Obviously you don’t know who’s gonna be a Franklin Roosevelt after the thing is over. But each period of time calls for a different kind of leader. We will inevitably need to go through a healing process. I am hopeful the Biden will be the kind of leader that the country needs a this particular moment.

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