拜登上任或帶來轉機，俄伊呼籲挽救伊核協議_風聞
钢铁沧澜-2021-02-03 11:42
拜登上任或帶來轉機，俄伊呼籲挽救伊核協議
作者：蘭順正
首發自：CGTN
2015年7月，伊朗與美國、英國、法國、俄羅斯、中國和德國達成伊朗核問題全面協議。根據協議，伊朗承諾限制其核計劃，國際社會解除對伊制裁。無疑，伊核協議的達成是多邊主義的重要成果，是通過政治外交手段和平解決國際熱點問題的典範，也充分體現了大國協調合作的重要意義。但是2018年5月美國特朗普政府單方面退出伊核協議，隨後重啓並新增一系列對伊制裁措施，而伊朗則從2019年5月以來逐步中止履行協議部分條款。
不過，美國政權的交替讓希望再次出現。與特朗普不同，新總統拜登是軍備控制條約的主要支持者，冷戰期間拜登作為參議員曾赴蘇聯就美蘇《中導條約》進行談判，而在特朗普退出《中導條約》時拜登表現出強烈的反對。在競選期間，拜登誓言要推翻特朗普任期內製定的部分外交政策，並一度稱自己擔任副總統時多次開展外交努力，實現了包括簽署《新削減戰略武器條約》等一系列成果，並指責特朗普“浪費了這些遺產”。在上台以後，拜登立即開始對特朗普的“政治遺毒”予以清算，6天內簽署了33項行政令，涵蓋了抗疫、經濟、移民等各領域。這其中特別引人注目的是，在1月26日俄羅斯總統普京和拜登首次通電話，討論了雙邊關係發展及全球熱點問題等。根據美國白宮當天發表的聲明，拜登和普京在通話中討論了兩國將《新削減戰略武器條約》延長5年的意願，同意雙方團隊應儘快在2月5日前完成條約的延長工作，並同意就一系列軍控和新興安全議題展開戰略穩定討論。
無疑，作為世界戰略穩定的“壓艙石”，《新削減戰略武器條約》的續簽讓全球都鬆了一口氣，也讓世人相信拜登確實與特朗普不同。由於伊核協議同樣是拜登標榜的功績之一，而拜登此前也曾暗示過將與伊朗重啓對話，並稱重新加入伊核協議是緩解緊張局勢的第一步，所以這讓伊朗看到了轉機。伊朗總統魯哈尼在去年12月17日就表示，他“毫不懷疑”地認為即將上任的“拜登政府”將會推動華盛頓重返伊核協議。而拜登上任兩天後，伊朗外交部長扎裏夫在美國《外交事務》雜誌上也發表了伊朗對於挽救核協議的看法，稱拜登政府可以擁抱特朗普政府時期的失敗政策，或者可以選擇一個更好的道路，來終結特朗普時期“最大程度施壓”的失敗政策。此次根據報道，俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫在會談前表示，最緊迫的議題之一是挽救伊核協議。同時扎裏夫則感謝莫斯科在美國退出後為修復伊核協議付出的努力，並感謝俄羅斯在該協議上所持的“建設性和原則性”立場。不難看出，雖然目前美伊之間依舊矛盾重重，但是此次俄羅斯與伊朗在伊核協議問題上的步調一致，表明雙方對於美國重返伊核協議已經有了謹慎的樂觀，這也為伊核協議的復甦注入了“強心劑”。
（以下為英文原版）
Biden’s appointment may bring turnaround on Iranian nuclear agreement
Lan Shunzheng
***Editor’s note:*Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
According to Arab News, the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran held their first meeting on January 26 since U.S. President Joe Biden took office, during which the two jointly called for the rescue of the Iran nuclear agreement. Obviously, with Biden’s appointment and the joint voice of Russia and Iran, the Iran nuclear agreement may rekindle hope.
In July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany. According to the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program, and the international community lifted sanctions against Iran.
Undoubtedly, the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear agreement is an important result of multilateral actions, a model of peaceful resolution of international hot spot issues through political and diplomatic means, and fully demonstrates the importance of coordination and cooperation between the major powers.
However, in May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and subsequently restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran, while Iran has gradually suspended the implementation of some of the terms of the agreement since May 2019.
The setback of the Iranian nuclear agreement has had a very negative impact on the maintenance of the international nuclear non-proliferation system and peace and stability in the Middle East. After the United States restarted sanctions, U.S.-Iran relations deteriorated rapidly and once again fell into a vicious circle of tense confrontation, which increased the risk of regional war.
For example, in early 2021, Iran held four military exercises, seized a South Korean oil tanker, and announced that it would increase the enriched uranium abundance to 20 percent in order to demonstrate to the United States. At the same time, the sanctions have dealt a major blow to the Iranian economy, leading to increasing problems such as Iran’s foreign exchange shortage, currency depreciation, and increased inflation.
Especially as the focus of the blow, Iran’s current oil exports have dropped by 92 percent compared to its peak. According to the assessment of the Iranian Parliamentary Research Center, U.S. sanctions have caused Iran’s GDP to fall by 0.8 percent in the 2018-2019 fiscal year and 2.5 percent in the 2019-2020 fiscal year. In September 2020, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement and reinstated sanctions in 2018, U.S. sanctions have caused Iranian losses of $150 billion.
In addition, due to the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase in the unemployment rate, there have been waves of protests among the Iranian people in recent years, which has led to turbulence in Iran’s internal political situation.
However, the change of the U.S. presidency gives hope again. Unlike Trump, President Biden is the main supporter of the arms control treaty. As a senator during the Cold War, Biden went to the Soviet Union to negotiate on the U.S.-Soviet Intermediate Range Treaty. When Trump withdrew from the Treaty, Biden expressed strong opposition. During the campaign, Biden vowed to overthrow some of the foreign policies formulated during Trump’s tenure and once said that he had made many diplomatic efforts when he was vice president and achieved a series of results, including the signing of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. He also accused Trump of “wasting these legacies.”
After taking office, Biden immediately began to liquidate Trump’s “political legacy” and signed 33 administrative orders within six days, covering various fields such as the fight against the epidemic, the economy, and immigration.
What is particularly striking is the first telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Biden on January 26 to discuss the development of bilateral relations and global hot issues. According to a statement issued by the White House on the same day, the two discussed their willingness to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years and agreed that the teams of both parties should complete the extension of the treaty. They also agreed to launch strategic and stable discussions on a series of arms control and emerging security issues.
Undoubtedly, as the “ballast stone” of world strategic stability, the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has given the world a sigh of relief and convinced the world that Biden would be different from Trump. Since the Iran nuclear agreement is also one of Biden’s advertised achievements, and Biden has previously hinted that he will restart dialogue with Iran and said that rejoining the Iran nuclear agreement is the first step to ease tensions.
This has made Iran expect a turning point. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated on December 17, 2020, that he “has no doubt” that the incoming Biden administration will push Washington to return to the Iran nuclear agreement. Two days after Biden took office, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif also published Iran’s views on saving the nuclear agreement in the Foreign Affairs magazine, saying that the Biden administration can embrace the failed policies of the Trump administration or can choose a better path to end the failed policy of “maximum pressure” during the Trump era.
According to reports this time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated before the meeting that one of the most urgent issues is to save the Iran nuclear agreement. During the talks, Zarif thanked Moscow for its efforts to repair the Iran nuclear agreement after the United States withdrew and thanked Russia for its “constructive and principled” stance on the agreement.
It is not difficult to see that although there are still many contradictions between the United States and Iran, the same pace of Russia and Iran on the Iran nuclear agreement this time indicates that the two sides have been cautiously optimistic about the return of the U.S. to the Iran nuclear agreement.
This has also injected a “cardio-tonic agent” into the recovery of the Iran nuclear agreement.