觀點 | 田士臣：上合組織在阿富汗局勢上應發揮怎樣的作用？_風聞

點擊立即閲讀全文：觀點 | 田士臣：上合組織在阿富汗局勢上應發揮怎樣的作用？

導言 

中國論壇特約專家、經士智庫創始人田士臣，日前在CHINA DAILY發表評論文章“SCO crucial for regional security”（上合組織對地區安全至關重要）。文章認為，上合組織應在促進阿富汗與主要鄰國交流互動、聯合國際社會為阿富汗提供經濟援助、敦促美國及其盟國為他們在阿富汗製造的混亂負責、反思更廣泛和長期的地區安全問題等方面發揮建設性作用。中國論壇首發該文中文版並附英文原文，英文版系與經士智庫副研究員程靜共同署名。南亞研究小組特此轉載，供各位讀者參考。

紀念上合組織成立20週年的峯會將於9月17日在塔吉克斯坦首都舉行，各成員國將主要討論該組織在解決阿富汗問題中應發揮怎樣的作用。美國自2001年以反恐為名發動阿富汗戰爭後的今天，該地區貧困激增、經濟惡化，在這樣的背景下這一議題顯得格外重要。

佔領阿富汗這二十年間，美國未能給阿富汗帶來和平與穩定，更不應指望其他國家清理它棄之而去後留下的爛攤子。

然而，深受阿富汗戰爭影響的周邊國家必須齊心協力協調政策，從而幫助穩定該地區局勢。**上合組織作為一個多邊組織，其首要目標是打擊恐怖主義和維護地區安全，**因此在美國撤出阿富汗、塔利班重新掌權的情況下，上合組織必須斟酌其地區責任以及所能發揮的作用。

上合組織由八個成員國（中國、印度、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦、巴基斯坦、俄羅斯、塔吉克斯坦和烏茲別克斯坦）和四個觀察員國（阿富汗、白俄羅斯、伊朗和蒙古）組成。其中包括阿富汗的近鄰：塔吉克斯坦、烏茲別克斯坦、巴基斯坦，以及中國、印度、俄羅斯等該地區主要國家。這些國家對阿富汗局勢深感憂慮，上合組織有望通過多邊協商推動阿富汗政治和解。

7月，**上合組織成員國外長髮表聯合聲明稱，**將“繼續協助阿富汗人民國家重建”，並將致力於“促進該國和平、穩定、繁榮的局面”。

中國國務委員兼外長王毅批評美國倉促撤軍，稱美國及其盟國有責任向阿富汗提供經濟和人道主義援助，並表示中國支持“阿人主導、阿人所有”的原則，並呼籲鄰國協助改善該國局勢。

鑑於地區形勢複雜，筆者認為上合組織應在以下方面發揮建設性作用。**第一，**上合組織應繼續打擊恐怖主義，維護地區穩定，加強處理阿富汗及周邊地區安全問題的力度，並運用衝突預防機制確保地區安全。

維護地區安全原本就是上合組織的首要任務，該組織應進一步加強反恐體系建設，從而提高打擊本地區三股勢力（恐怖主義、分裂主義和極端主義）的能力。

**第二，上合組織應發揮多邊組織優勢，促進阿富汗與主要鄰國交流互動的機制，幫助阿富汗人民重建國家，恢復該國的和平穩定。**成立於2005年的上合組織-阿富汗聯絡組尤其在這方面可以發揮重要作用。同時，需要指出的是，阿富汗應被作為其中的一份子積極納入到該上合組織框架下的多邊合作機制中。

**第三，****上合組織應聯合國際社會共同為阿富汗提供經濟援助，促進其經濟發展。**中國於9月9日宣佈向阿富汗提供價值2億元人民幣（3096萬美元）的人道主義援助，援助物品包括糧食、冬季用品、疫苗和藥品等。

為幫助建立“阿人主導、阿人所有”的和解框架，上合組織需向阿富汗提供切實可行的重建支持，以解決該國面臨的迫切問題，例如毒品以及新冠疫情的問題，並促進可持續發展。上合組織也應與非成員國一起幫助改善阿富汗的整體局勢，推動阿富汗謀求發展。這一點尤為重要，因為阿富汗經濟越是發展，越有可能趨於穩定，降低其對地區的安全威脅。

**第四，****上合組織應敦促國際社會讓美國及其盟國為他們在阿富汗製造的混亂負責，同時反思更廣泛和長期的問題。**例如，美國以“反恐戰爭”為由，使得阿富汗政權更迭並佔領阿富汗二十年，針對這樣的現象，上合組織應積極探討並制定尊重他國主權和自決權的新治理模式。在這一方面，上合組織的區域一體化模式很有可能能為新型的、靈活的超國家治理體系提供方案。

的確，阿富汗局勢頗為複雜，並且上合組織成員國之間也在某些問題上存在分歧，但共同解決阿富汗局勢符合所有上合成員國乃至世界的共同利益。為此，上合組織成員國必須齊心協力。

SCO crucial for regional security

ZENG YI/FOR CHINA DAILY

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will be held in Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan, on Thursday and Friday to discuss, among other things, what role the organization should play in addressing the Afghanistan issue, especially because the war the United States launched in 2001 has not only increased poverty but also reversed the economic development cycle in the country.

Since the US has failed to restore peace or stability in Afghanistan despite its 20-year occupation, it should not expect other countries to clear the mess it has left behind.

However, the neighboring countries, which have borne the brunt of the spillover effects of the US’ war in Afghanistan, have to coordinate their policies and work together to help stabilize the situation in the region. As the SCO is a multilateral organization whose primary goal is to combat terrorism and safeguard regional security, it has to weigh its regional responsibilities and the role it should play now that the US has withdrawn from Afghanistan and the Taliban have returned to power.

The SCO comprises eight members (China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), and four observer countries (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia). SCO member states include Afghanistan’s close neighbors Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, and major countries in the region such as China, India, and Russia. And since these countries are deeply concerned about the situation in Afghanistan, the SCO is expected to seek to promote political reconciliation in the country through multilateral negotiation.

In July, the foreign ministers of the SCO member states issued a joint announcement saying****they will “continue to assist the Afghan people in their efforts to rebuild their country”, and are keen on “making the country peaceful, stable and prosperous”.

Criticizing the US for its hasty and chaotic withdrawal, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the US and its allies have the responsibility to provide economic and humanitarian aid for Afghanistan, and asserted that China supports an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” reconciliation framework and called on neighboring states to help improve the situation in the country.

In view of the complicated situation in the region, the SCO should play a constructive role in at least some aspects. First, the SCO should continue combating terrorism and maintaining regional stability, while making greater efforts to address the security issues in and around Afghanistan and using conflict-prevention mechanisms to ensure regional security.

Since the SCO has made safeguarding regional security one of its top priorities, it should further strengthen its anti-terrorism structure, in order to better combat terrorism, separatism and extremism in the region.

**Second, the SCO should use its advantages as a multilateral organization to establish an integrated mechanism promoting interaction between Afghanistan and key neighboring countries to help the Afghan people in their efforts to restore peace and stability, and rebuild the country.**The SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, established in 2005, could play a valuable role in this respect. There is also a need to include Afghanistan in multilateral cooperation mechanism under the SCO framework as a contributing country.

**Third, together with the international community, the SCO should provide economic assistance for Afghanistan, so as to facilitate its economic development.**On Sept 9, China announced 200 million yuan ($30.96 million) worth of humanitarian aid, including grain, winter supplies, vaccines and medicines, for Afghanistan.

To help establish an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” framework, it is essential to provide practical reconstruction support for Afghanistan so it can tackle issues such as drug abuse and the COVID-19 pandemic, and promote sustainable development. The SCO should also work with non-member states to help improve the overall situation in Afghanistan, so the country can pursue development. This is particularly important, because the more economically developed Afghanistan is, the lower will be its security threat in the region.

**And fourth, the SCO should encourage the international community to hold the US and its allies accountable for the mess they have created in Afghanistan. It should also reflect on the broader and long-term issues.**For example, since the US used its “war on terror” as a pretext to effect regime change in and occupy Afghanistan for almost 20 years, the SCO should discuss and work out a new governance model that fully respects the sovereignty and self-determination of other countries. In this regard, the regional integration model of the SCO could pave the way for a new, flexible supranational governance system.

True, the situation in Afghanistan is complicated and there are differences among the SCO member states on certain issues, but it is in the common interest of all the members and also the world at large to help address the Afghanistan situation together. And for that, the SCO member states have to make joint efforts.

本文轉載自“清華大學戰略與安全研究中心”微信公眾號2021年9月28日文章

本文來源於中國日報2021年9月15日文章

作者田士臣，為經士智庫創始人兼主席，中國論壇特約專家

程靜，為經士智庫副研究員，西安電子科技大學外國語學院講師

本期編輯：穆禕璠 陳珏可