周密：中國申請加入CPTPP彰顯其對貿易和改革的承諾

【文/中國論壇特約專家 周密】

中國本月提交了加入《全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（CPTPP）的正式申請。在這個國際貿易動盪，中國砥礪改革的時期，這是一個強烈的信號，表明中國打算繼續在國際上保持開放姿態，在國內進一步提高經濟水平。

當然，這個貿易協定並是新鮮。美國在2017年1月退出了擬議中的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（TPP），即CPTPP的前身，扼殺了TPP生效的可能。剩下的11個TPP國家隨後對原協定進行了一些調整，並將該協定作為CPTPP推出。儘管該協議於2018年就已經生效了，但是出於擔心CPTPP潛在的不利經濟影響，簽署國的批准速度很慢。比如由於國內大規模的反對，智利就尚未批准該協定。

造成這種擔憂的部分原因源於CPTPP的獨特性質。它不是一個“普通”的貿易協定，所有締約方承諾主要是通過削減關税來減少貿易壁壘；它還要求所有締約國提高其經濟標準，以為彼此換取更多市場準入的機會。這種義務與回報之間的平衡為各方提供了一個更加公平的競爭環境，但可能會以犧牲部分國家主權為代價，因為CPTPP授權建立特設仲裁機構，會讓任何違反條約的國家承擔後果。CPTPP涉及過去的貿易條約大多回避的領域，包括為成員國制定知識產權、勞工、國有企業、ESG（環境、社會與企業管理）和投資標準，以換取彼此之間的“原產地權”准入。通過協調各國的經濟大環境，這些標準允許CPTPP國家在更公平的條件下進行貿易。因此，沒有任何一個國家可以通過過度且不可持續地剝削國內生產要素而獲得不公平的貿易優勢。

這就是為什麼中國宣佈申請加入CPTPP是如此的重要。儘管由於政治和經濟上的重重阻撓，中國實際加入CPTPP的可能性不大，但這對世界和中國社會來説都是一個強有力的聲明。中國向世界表明了自己對進一步開展國際經濟合作持開放態度。

在國際貿易方面，中國既取得了成功，簽署了《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》（RCEP），也遇到了挫折，《中歐全面投資協定》（CAI）進展受阻。但中國既不會固步自封，也不會因為逆風而氣餒。中國願意在國際和國內做出改變，以促進一個更加一體化的國際秩序，為所有人帶來更大的繁榮。RCEP是一個更傳統的自由貿易協定，類似於過去簽署的自由貿易協定。中國已經認識到，再往前邁進需要比以往更大的雄心，未來的貿易協議將遠遠不止於單純的關税，而會是涉及全球經濟運轉模式的更廣泛的再平衡。中國加入CPTPP的願望反映了這一更宏大的野心。

在國內，中國政府已經表明了提高中國經濟質量和水平的決心。過去，在我們還很貧困，中國的整體經濟和生產規模落後於人口少得多的國家時，經濟增長是首要目標。政府的當務之急是保障人民吃飽飯的權利。中國脱貧攻堅戰的勝利意味着政府可以進入馬斯洛需求層次的下一級。早在2014年，中國就已經開始從單純關注經濟增長，轉向關注其他衡量繁榮和幸福的指標。第一個重大舉措就是向霧霾“宣戰”。在過去的兩年裏，這個新的使命已經逐漸發展為更廣泛的進步運動，以改善全社會為其主旨，類似於美國進步人士在20世紀初所做的那樣。這方面最突出的例子包括承諾到2060年實現碳中和，反對壟斷，以及更加關注家庭和學生所面臨的壓力等。

這些改變並不是出於為了加入CPTPP或任何其他國際貿易協定，儘管這些舉措進一步激勵了改革。中國政府，像全世界所有其他政府一樣，最根本上是對人民負責，它將致力於在正確的時機以正確的方式改善民生。這個時機就是現在。如果中國加入CPTPP，公平互惠地與其他11個國家開放經濟和市場，這一目標將更有效地實現，但無論結果如何，中國的追求都始終不變。

中國加入CPTPP仍面臨一些挑戰，其中最主要的是透明度要求、知識產權保護、工人權利、國有企業標準，以及默許某種程度的外部壓力。然而，即使在這些改革的“硬骨頭”方面，中國也顯示了做出必要調整的意願，並沒有將這些來自外部的要求視為不公平的施壓，而是把它們看作一個機會，證明自己是國際社會中負責且富有生產力的一員。

中國已經準備好迎接挑戰。有些反對者可能不願意承認，但是中國仍然是一個充滿活力的力量，隨時準備着自我完善，並與國際社會攜手構建一個為儘可能多的人謀福祉的國際體系。

翻譯：李澤西

校譯：許馨勻 韓樺

China’s CPTPP bid underlines its commitment to trade and reform

Zhou Mi

China submitted its formal application this month to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). During this time of turbulence in international trade, and of progress and reform in China, it serves as a strong signal that China intends to stay open internationally and improve economic standards domestically.

The trade pact is not new, of course. The US withdrawal in January 2017 of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, the CPTPP’s predecessor, ended any chance of the TPP coming into effect. The remaining 11 TPP countries then made some adjustments to the original agreement and launched the pact as the CPTPP. Despite the agreement coming into effect in 2018, however, ratification by all signatories has been slow, due to concerns about potential adverse economic impacts. Chile has yet to ratify the agreement because of major domestic opposition.

The reason for such concern is partly due to the unique nature of the CPTPP, which is not simply a “normal” trade agreement whereby all parties pledge to reduce trade barriers, mainly through cutting tariffs. It also confers on all parties responsibilities to raise the standards of their economy in exchange for greater access to each other’s markets. This balance between obligation and reward affords all parties a more even playing field, at the potential expense of national sovereignty, as the CPTPP empowers the creation of ad hoc arbitration bodies and subsequent consequences for any party that violates the treaty. The CPTPP addresses areas that past treaties have mostly shied away from, including setting standards on intellectual property, labour, state-owned enterprises, ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) and investment for member states, in exchange for obtaining “right of origin” access to each other. By harmonising the broader context within which economic activity takes places, these standards allow CPTPP countries to trade under fairer conditions, so that no one country can gain an unfair advantage by ruthlessly and unsustainably exploiting domestic factors of production.

This is why China declaring its desire to join the CPTPP is so important. While actual entry into the trade pact may be uncertain, due to the high political and economic barriers, this serves as a powerful statement both to the world and to Chinese society. To the world, China has shown that it will maintain an open attitude to further international economic cooperation.

On international trade, China has had both successes, in the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and setbacks, in the stalling of progress on the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the EU. But it will neither rest on its laurels nor be discouraged by unfavourable headwinds. It is willing to make changes, both internationally and domestically, to promote a more integrated international order that can deliver greater prosperity to all. The RCEP is a more traditional free-trade agreement, similar to the FTAs signed in the past. China has recognised that moving forwards requires greater ambition than before, that future trade deals will extend far beyond simply tariffs, and will be a broader rebalancing of how the global economy is conducted. China’s desire to join the CPTPP reflects that greater ambition.

Domestically, the government has shown that it is determined to improve the quality and standards of the Chinese economy. In the past, when poverty was rife and China’s overall economic activity and production lagged behind countries with far smaller populations, economic growth was the paramount goal. The government’s priority was to secure people’s right to put food on the table. Success in the war on poverty meant that the government could move to the next rungs on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. From as far back as 2014, China has started to move away from a focus purely on economic growth, towards looking at other measures of prosperity and happiness. Its first major move was to declare a war on smog. This has gradually grown into a broader progressive push over the past two years to improve society for all, much as the American progressives did in the early 20th century. The most prominent examples of this include the pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, moves against monopolies, and a greater focus on the excessive pressure placed on families and students, among others.

These moves were not made out of a desire to join the CPTPP, or any other international agreement for that matter, although these would act as a further incentive. The Chinese government, like all other governments, is ultimately responsible to its people, and it will always look for the right time and right ways to improve people’s welfare. That time is clearly now. This goal will be more effectively achieved for China if it is in the CPTPP, with fair and mutual market access to 11 other countries’ economies and markets, but it will be pursued regardless.

There remain challenges for Chinese entry into the CPTPP. Chief among them are the transparency requirements, IP protection, workers’ rights, standards for state-owned enterprises, and acquiescence to some degree of external pressure. However, even on these tougher fronts for reforms, China is showing its willingness to make necessary adjustments, and not view these external requirements as unfair pressure, but instead as another opportunity to prove itself as a responsible and productive member of the international community.

China is up to the challenge. Contrary to naysayers, it remains a dynamic power that is ready to improve itself, and help construct a global system that works for the benefit of as many people as possible.

Dr Zhou Mi is a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, and a China Forum expert.

Lee Jersey Wang is a China Forum associate.

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