美版知乎：為何美國成功打斷日本崛起,卻沒能阻止中國_風聞

從上世紀以來，美國已經接連擊垮了4個“世界老二”，分別是英國、德國、蘇聯以及日本。美國是一個十分有危機感的國家，對於維持自己的霸權地位相當重視，從來不允許其他國家隨意超越美國。此前美國總統拜登更是公開表示，在自己任期內不會讓中國超越美國。雖然中國從未想過超越美國，但美國自身還是相當有危機意識的，已經開始針對中國採取各種行動，想要壓制中國前進的腳步。在美版知乎Quora上，美國網友提問道：為什麼美國成功地打斷了日本的崛起，卻沒有阻止中國？這個問題引起各國網友的圍觀和熱議，我們看看他們的觀點。

問題：為什麼美國成功打斷了日本的崛起，卻沒能阻止中國的復興？

旅居日本的美國網友史蒂文•科爾比的回答

In 1985, Japan surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest creditor country, and products made in Japan flooded the world. The crazy expansion of Japanese capital made the American industry exclaim that “Japan will take over the United States peacefully!”

1985年，日本超過美國成為世界上最大的債權國，日本製造的產品充斥全世界，日本資本的瘋狂擴張讓美國業界驚呼“日本將和平接管美國！”

Many U.S. manufacturing companies and congressmen began to lose their breath and frequently lobbied the U.S. government, strongly urging the Reagan administration to intervene in the foreign exchange market and devalue the U.S. dollar to save the depressed U.S. manufacturing industry. Many economists even joined the ranks of lobbying the government to change its support for the strong dollar.

許多美國製造公司和國會議員開始沉不住氣，頻頻遊説美國政府，強烈敦促當時的里根政府幹預外匯市場，讓美元貶值，以挽救蕭條的美國製造業，許多經濟學家甚至加入了遊説政府改變支持強勢美元立場的行列。

In September, 1985, US Treasury Secretary jamesbeck, Japanese Treasury Secretary Takeshita, former Federal German Treasury Secretary Gerhard Stoltenberg, French Treasury Secretary Pierre beregovo, British Treasury Secretary nigellawson and other finance ministers of five developed industrial countries held a meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York, agreeing to intervene in the foreign exchange market and devalue the US dollar against major currencies in an orderly manner, To solve the huge trade deficit of the United States.

1985年9月，美國財長詹姆斯·貝克、日本財長竹下、前聯邦德國財長格哈德·斯托爾滕貝格、法國財長皮埃爾·貝列戈沃、英國財政部長奈傑爾·勞森（NigelLawson）和五個發達工業國家的其他財政部長五國政府在紐約廣場酒店舉行會議，同意干預外匯市場，有序地使美元兑主要貨幣貶值，以解決美國巨大的貿易赤字。

As the agreement was signed at Plaza Hotel, it is also called “Plaza Agreement”. The agreement stipulates that the Japanese yen and the mark should rise sharply to restore the overvalued dollar price. After the signing of the Plaza Accord, the five countries intervened in the foreign exchange market and began to sell dollars, which triggered a selling boom among market investors and led to the continued sharp depreciation of the dollar.

由於該協議是在廣場酒店簽署的，因此該協議也被稱為“廣場協議”。該協議規定，日元和馬克應大幅升值，以恢復被高估的美元價格。廣場協議簽署後，五國干預外匯市場，開始拋售美元，進而引發市場投資者的拋售熱潮，導致美元持續大幅貶值。

Since then, the US government authorities headed by US Treasury Secretary Baker and experts represented by fredbergsten (then director of the US Institute of International Economics) continued to verbally intervene in the US dollar, saying that the US dollar exchange rate was still high at that time and there was still room for decline.

此後，以美國財政部長貝克為首的美國政府當局和以弗雷德·伯格斯滕（時任美國國際經濟研究所所長）為代表的專家繼續口頭干預美元，表示美元匯率當時仍處於高位，還有下跌空間。

Due to the tough stance of the US government, the US dollar continued to fall sharply against the Japanese yen. In September, 1985, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen was 250 yen to pay 1 US dollar. Less than three months after the Plaza agreement came into effect, the Japanese yen rapidly appreciated to 200 yen to 1 US dollar, an increase of 20%. At the end of 1986, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was 152 yen. In 1987, it reached the highest value of 120 yen against the US dollar.

由於美國政府的強硬立場，美元兑日元匯率繼續大幅下跌。1985年9月，日元匯率從250日元兑付1美元，在《廣場協議》生效後不到三個月，日元迅速升值至200日元兑1美元，增幅為20%。1986年底，日元兑美元匯率為152日元，1987年達到120日元兑1美元的最高值。

Since the late 1980s, with the bursting of the foam economy, Japan has fallen into a decade of economic stagnation, known as the “lost decade”. From high growth to long-term stagnation, Japan’s development experience has provided valuable lessons for emerging countries with ambitious economic take-off plans.

從20世紀80年代中後期開始，隨着泡沫經濟的破滅，日本陷入了長達十年的經濟停滯，被稱為“失去的十年”。從高增長到長期停滯，日本的發展經驗為有雄心勃勃的經濟起飛計劃的新興國家提供了寶貴的教訓。

As the most important producer and exporter of products, China’s foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly leapt to the top in the world, and the RMB is facing great appreciation pressure, which is very similar to Japan in the mid-1980s.

作為最重要的產品製造國和出口國，中國的外匯儲備不出意外地躍居世界首位，人民幣面臨着巨大的升值壓力，這種情況和20世紀80年代中期的日本非常相像。

Reviewing the economic development of Japan in the past three decades, the Plaza Agreement in 1985 was a turning point. Some analysts pointed out that after the Plaza Accord was reached, the appreciation of the yen hit Japan’s export competitiveness, and the Japanese economy has been in a state of collapse for more than a decade. Even in the economic circles, a considerable number of people believe that the Plaza Accord is a big conspiracy set up by the United States to overthrow Japan.

回顧過去三十年日本經濟的發展，1985年的廣場協議是一個轉折點。一些分析師指出，廣場協議達成後，日元升值打擊了日本的出口競爭力，日本經濟在十多年的時間裏一直處於崩潰狀態。即使在經濟界，也有相當一部分人認為廣場協議是美國為推翻日本而設的一個大陰謀。

The United States is now trying to do the same with China:

美國現在正試圖對中國採取同樣的做法：

1. Unjustifiably accuse China of not protecting intellectual property rights;

1、無理指責中國不保護知識產權；

2. China is accused of artificially manipulating the RMB and trying to make the RMB appreciate.

2、無端指責中國人為操縱人民幣，試圖使人民幣升值。

These methods are exactly the same as those used against Japan at that time, but China is a country completely different from Japan.

這些方法與當時對抗日本的方法完全相同，但中國是一個與日本截然不同的國家。

1. China has a huge domestic market, that is, the import market. China’s import volume far exceeds that of Japan. This situation forces China to divert the attention of the United States by increasing procurement.

1、中國有一個巨大的國內市場，即進口市場，中國的進口量遠遠超過日本。這種情況迫使中國可以通過增加採購等方式轉移美國的注意力。

2. The internationalization of RMB is not as high as that of yen. A strong government is the strong backing of China’s financial and monetary system. Western financial oligarchs including Soros cannot attack it.

2、人民幣不如日元國際化程度高，強大的政府是中國金融貨幣體系的堅強後盾，包括索羅斯在內的西方金融寡頭無法對其發起攻擊。

Wright Hirsh, the deputy trade representative who launched the trade war against Japan on behalf of the United States at that time, served as the deputy trade representative of the United States from 1981 to 1989. From the early 1980s to the late 1980s, he and his colleagues were the biggest headache of the Japanese government. They succeeded in strangling the momentum of Japan’s booming economy. He became famous at one stroke, and his brilliant record has always impressed trump, the real estate developer at that time.

當時代表美國對日發動貿易戰的副貿易代表賴特·赫什（Wright Hirsh）在1981-1989年擔任美國副貿易代表。從20世紀80年代初到晚期，他和他的同事是日本政府最頭疼的問題。他們成功地扼殺了日本經濟蓬勃發展的勢頭，他一舉成名，而他的輝煌記錄一直讓當時的房地產開發商特朗普印象深刻。

Twenty years later, trump took him to the white house immediately after he took office. Only this time, Hirsch’s opponent is no longer Japan, the primary partner of the United States, but China, the giant second only to the United States.

二十年後，特朗普就任總統後立即將他帶到白宮任職。只是這一次，赫什的對手不再是美國的初級夥伴日本，而是僅次於美國的巨人中國。

For his part, Wright Hesh is still immersed in the glory of the past. Therefore, this time, when he entered the white house again, he was still playing the old trick he used against Japan in those years - attacking China by using the US domestic law “trade 301”. Now, he accused China of stealing American technology, began to impose restrictions on China’s high-tech industry, forced China to come to the negotiating table with high tariff fines, and forced China to give up the development of high-tech industry. All these were the usual practices of the United States against Japan at that time.

就賴特·赫什本人而言，他仍然沉浸在過去的輝煌中。因此，這一次，當他再次入主白宮時，他仍在耍他當年對日本使用的老把戲——利用美國國內法“貿易301”攻擊中國。現在，他指責中國竊取美國技術，開始對中國的高科技產業施加限制，以高關税罰款迫使中國來到談判桌前，並以此迫使中國放棄高科技產業的發展，所有這些都是當時美國對日本的慣常做法。

In 1986, under the pressure of the United States, Japan and the United States signed the Japan US semiconductor agreement. On the one hand, Japan cancelled its own production capacity, on the other hand, Japan opened up its semiconductor market. From then on, Japan’s semiconductor industry, which occupies a leading position in the world, embarked on a road of no return. In 1989, the United States launched a “301 investigation” on the Japanese government’s procurement of satellites again, resulting in Japan having to give up its own satellite development plan, and the development of the aerospace industry stagnated.

1986年，在美國的壓力下，日美簽署了《日美半導體協議》，日本一方面取消了自己的生產能力，另一方面開放了日本半導體市場，從此，日本在全球佔據主導地位的半導體產業走上了不歸路。1989年，美國再次對日本政府採購衞星展開“301調查”，導致日本不得不放棄自己的衞星開發計劃，航天產業發展陷入停滯。

Japan depends on the United States because of its comprehensive strength. Japan is politically dependent on the protection of the United States, economically dependent on the U.S. market, and financially unable to get rid of the U.S. dollar. When the United States could not win the game, they used outside forces, such as foreign exchange, laws, standards, rules and other hegemonic tactics to force the Japanese to surrender. This practice has been tried and tested. Until today, Japan is still in this lasso and cannot extricate itself.

日本因其綜合實力而依賴美國。日本在政治上依賴美國的保護，在經濟上依賴美國市場，在財政上無法擺脱美元。當美國無法贏得比賽時，他們使用場外力量，如外匯、法律、標準、規則等霸權主義戰術被用來迫使日本人屈服。這種做法已經過嘗試和檢驗，直到今天，日本仍處於這種套索中，無法自拔。

The United States has found a way out and confidence in this regard. It believes it can do so in this way to deal with all the global competition that comes with it. They also used it to disarm Alcatel of France. They used the same method against Japan and China again and again, but the results were disastrous. When Canadian president Trudeau asked trump for help, he said the truth: “it is not so easy to deal with the Chinese people.”

美國在這方面找到了一條出路，並找到了信心。它認為自己可以照做，以這種方式應對隨之而來的所有全球競爭。他們還用它解除了法國阿爾卡特的武裝。他們一次又一次地用同樣的方法對付日本和中國，但結果是災難性的。當加拿大總統特魯多向特朗普尋求幫助時，特朗普總統説的是實話：“與中國人打交道並不那麼容易。”

The reason is not complicated. This is because China is not as dependent on the United States as Japan. For example, markets are as interdependent as the United States and China. China has a population of 1.4 billion. From a development perspective, the United States will rely more on China. China is politically and militarily independent of each other and does not seek the protection of the United States.

原因並不複雜。這是因為中國不像日本那樣依賴美國。例如，市場的相互依存程度與美國和中國差不多。中國有14億人口，從發展的角度來看，美國將更加依賴中國。中國在政治和軍事上相互獨立，不尋求美國的保護。

As far as the dollar is concerned, the RMB is in a disadvantageous position, but China has trillions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves and will not panic when problems arise. In the fields of diplomacy, resources, industrial infrastructure and scientific research, China has taken the path of independent development for a long time, accumulated a relatively complete system, and has a strong ability to deal with various unexpected risks.

就美元而言，人民幣處於不利地位，但中國擁有數萬億美元的外匯儲備，在出現問題時不會驚慌失措。在外交、資源、產業基礎設施、科研等領域，中國長期走自主發展道路，積累了較為完整的體系，應對各種突發風險能力較強。

澳大利亞學者約翰•費恩的回答

The reasons why the United States succeeded in forcing Japan to kneel down are as follows:

美國成功迫使日本下跪的原因有：

According to the provisions of the US Japan mutual cooperation and Security Treaty (1960), at the invitation of the Japanese government, about 31000 US military personnel remained in Japan as US troops stationed in Japan, rather than as occupying forces. The US military bases in Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Aomori, Sapporo and Ishikari and their surrounding areas are very active;

根據《美日相互合作與安全條約》（1960年）的規定，應日本政府的邀請，約有31000名美國軍事人員以駐日美軍的身份留在日本，而不是以佔領軍的身份。位於東京、廣島、長崎、青森、札幌和石kari及其周圍的美軍基地十分活躍；

By 1990, the United States had produced 70000 nuclear warheads. So far, Japan has 0 nuclear warheads. The United States is acting as Japan’s nuclear umbrella;

到1990年，美國生產了70000枚核彈頭，而迄今為止，日本擁有0枚核彈頭，美國正充當日本的核保護傘；

Japanese enterprises are excessively dependent on the American market;

日本企業過度依賴美國市場；

The limitations and disadvantages of Japan’s export-oriented economy.

日本外向型經濟的侷限性和劣勢。

Compared with China and the United States, Japan is a much smaller country, a small chain of trivial islands, and has almost no natural resources. After being bombed into submission, Japan needs the support of big powers. Japan cleverly uses the United States as a channel and dependence for international trade, and provides a military base to appease American bigotry.

和中美相比，日本是一個小得多的國家，是一個瑣碎羣島組成的小鏈條，幾乎沒有自然資源。被炸得屈服後，需要得到大國支持，日本聰明地利用美國作為國際貿易的渠道和依靠，同時提供了一個軍事基地來安撫美國的偏執。

Japan after World War II was created by the constitution of the United States. The United States restricted their military power. They turned Japan into a crippled pacifist, which made the United States have a strong influence in Japan. Japanese politicians and business circles are working for Congress and wall street. Therefore, Japan must abide by every rule of the United States. If Japan rewrites these rules, the consequences will be unimaginable.

二戰後的日本是由美國憲法創造的，美國限制了他們的軍事力量，他們把日本變成了一個殘廢的和平主義者，這使得美國在日本的影響力強大，日本的政界和商界都在為國會和華爾街賣命，所以日本必須遵守美國的每一條規則，如果日本改寫了這些規則，後果不堪設想。

China has a large population and a vast territory. Unlike Japan, China is a force that is difficult to surrender. Now, China has become an economic and military force that can not be ignored, and it is almost impossible to be bullied.

中國人口眾多，幅員遼闊，與日本不同，中國是一支很難屈服的力量。現在，中國已經成為一支不容忽視的經濟和軍事力量，幾乎不可能被欺負。

On the other hand, Japan relies on the United States for trade and allows the United States to set terms and conditions that are equivalent to obstacles, but as long as they are not at the point of subjugation, Japan can accept them.

另一方面，日本在貿易上依賴美國，允許美國規定相當於阻礙的條款和條件，但只要沒到亡國滅種的地步，日本就可以接受。

近代不平等條約

However, China is inherently angry and tired of the “unequal treaties”. In the early days of the founding of the people’s Republic of China, they completely tore up these humiliating treaty documents. At present, a large number of American companies are doing business in China rather than Japan. Obstructing China will only make it self defeating. Trump has experienced this.

而中國對“不平等條約”感到先天的憤怒和厭倦，建國初期他們就徹底撕碎了這些屈辱的條約文件。現在，大量美國公司在中國而非日本開展業務，阻礙中國只會弄巧成拙，特朗普嘗過這種滋味。

China is very independent, and the influence of the West on its country is zero. In addition, they have a strong political and economic system, which has made them strong after the reform and opening up. China will become the world’s leading power by 2030, which means that the world will bear the influence of the United States, but it also has the influence from China.

中國非常獨立，西方對其國家的影響力為零，此外，他們擁有強大的政治經濟體系，在改革開放後，這些體系使他們變得強大。中國將在2030年成為世界領先的大國，這意味着世界將承受美國的影響力，但同時也有來自中國的影響力。

After World War II, China was a poor country, which was despised by the powerful United States and the Soviet Union. They also threatened or even wanted to carry out a surgical nuclear strike on China. History has shown and proved that the Chinese people have a strong resilience, can withstand extreme suffering and burst out with amazing strength.

二戰後，中國是一個貧窮的國家，深受強大的美國和蘇聯的鄙視和敵視，他們也曾威脅甚至想要對中國進行外科手術式的核打擊。歷史已經表明並證明，中國人民具有很強的韌性，能夠承受極端的苦難，並且迸發出驚人的力量。

Trade war is a form of conflict between countries. Conflicts between countries do not necessarily begin and end with trade agreements, but sometimes end with peace treaties or ceasefire agreements. Please note that war is another form of conflict between countries. The most extreme and bloody conflict is usually the ultimate conflict. The United States will never start a hot war with China.

貿易戰是國家間衝突的一種形式。國家間的衝突不一定以貿易協議開始和結束，有時以和平條約或停火協議結束，請注意，戰爭是國家間衝突的另一種形式，最極端和血腥的衝突，通常是最終的衝突。美國永遠不可能和中國掀起熱戰。

China has learned from its painful history what will happen when its military strength is weak. This is also the main reason why they so emphasize the upgrading and modernization of military capabilities. Even the powerful United States now makes it impossible to fight with China.

中國從其痛苦的歷史中瞭解到，當他們的國家軍事力量薄弱時，會發生什麼，這也是他們如此強調軍事能力升級和現代化的主要原因，以至於即使是強大的美國現在也對與中國開戰列為不可能選項。

​今濤拍案