隨着英國舉國停頓悼念女王，經濟衰退的威脅迫在眉睫_風聞

【來源龍騰網】

正文原創翻譯：

Recession threat looms as UK grinds to a halt to mourn Queen

-Bank holiday for state funeral could send productivity plummeting at a time when country is struggling for growth

隨着英國舉國停頓悼念女王，經濟衰退的威脅迫在眉睫

——在國家經濟增長艱難之際，為國葬安排的銀行假期可能會導致生產力驟降

(Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to go to London to pay their respects to the Queen.)

（預計將有數十萬人前往倫敦向女王致敬。）

新聞：

Britain’s fragile economy was already teetering on the edge of recession even before the death of Queen Elizabeth II last week. That prospect now looms a lot larger, as businesses cancel events amid the period of national mourning culminating in the bank holiday for the late monarch’s funeral.

在上週女王伊麗莎白二世去世之前，英國脆弱的經濟就已經在衰退的邊緣徘徊了。如今，這一前景變得更加嚴峻，因為在為已故君主舉行葬禮的銀行假期達到頂峯的全國哀悼日期間，企業取消了生產活動。

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Economists say high street shops closing their doors or operating reduced hours on Monday, alongside the loss of a full working day, will lead to a sharp fall in output at a time when Britain is struggling for growth momentum amid the cost of living crisis.

經濟學家表示，商業街商店在週一關門或縮短營業時間，加上全天工作日的減少，將導致產出大幅下降，而此時英國正面臨生活成本危機，難以獲得增長動力。

Estimates of the hit to the economy are inevitably sketchy and for the time being rely almost entirely on anecdotal evidence. There is already a rush of mourners to London, creating unprecedented demand on transport, in a boon for the capital’s hoteliers, cab drivers, hospitality venues and flower sellers, making up for losses elsewhere. However, it is unlikely to make up for the overall drop in activity.

對經濟遭受打擊的估計不可避免地是粗略的，目前幾乎完全依賴於坊間證據。已經有大批弔唁者湧向倫敦，對交通產生了前所未有的需求，這對倫敦的酒店經營者、出租車司機、接待場所和花商來説是一個福音，彌補了其他地方的損失。然而，這不太可能彌補得了生產活動的整體下降。

“We see a greater risk that the UK slips into technical recession,” said Modupe Adegbembo, an economist at AXA Investment Managers. “As the UK mourns the death of the Queen, the additional bank holiday that has been granted for her funeral could see growth shift lower than we had initially expected, increasing the risk that the UK slips into technical recession this quarter.”

“我們認為英國陷入技術性衰退的風險更大，”安盛投資管理公司經濟學家莫杜佩·阿德本博表示。“在英國哀悼女王去世之際，為她的葬禮而獲得的額外銀行假期可能會導致經濟增長低於我們最初的預期，增加英國在本季度陷入技術性衰退的風險。”

On past form, it is a question not of whether there will be a hit to growth but of how big the hit will be. There were extra bank holidays in 2002 to mark the Queen’s golden jubilee and in 2012 to celebrate the marriage of the Duke and Duchess of Cornwall and Cambridge, and both resulted in weaker activity as factories, offices and construction sites were shut down.

從過去的情況來看，問題不在於經濟增長是否會受到打擊，而在於打擊會有多大。2002年為紀念女王金禧，2012年為慶祝康沃爾公爵夫婦和劍橋公爵夫人的婚禮，都有額外的銀行假日，但這兩次都導致了工廠、辦公室和建築工地關閉，生產活動減弱。

Over time, the growth of the digital economy has meant the impact of an extra day off has diminished, but even so a double bank holiday to mark the Queen’s platinum jubilee shaved about 0.5 percentage points off monthly growth in June. A repeat of that next week would reduce gross domestic product by £10-11bn given that the UK is a £2.2tn economy.

隨着時間的推移，數字經濟的增長意味着多放一天假的影響已經減弱，但即便如此，6月份為紀念女王鉑金週年而舉行的雙重銀行假日也讓月增長率下降了約0.5個百分點。鑑於英國是一個2.2萬億英鎊的經濟體，如果下週再次出現這種情況，GDP將減少100億至110億英鎊。

On top of that, there will be the additional lost output associated with businesses closing, and events being postponed during the 10 days between the Queen’s death and her funeral. Some of this spending will be deferred rather than lost for ever, with postponed football matches played at a later date and meetings re-scheduled.

最重要的是，在女王去世和葬禮之間的10天裏，企業關閉和活動推遲將導致額外的產出損失。其中一些支出將被推遲，而不是永遠失去，比如足球比賽推遲到以後進行，會議重新安排。

However, some of the spending will never be recouped and even a small reduction in gross domestic product in September would be enough to tip the balance in favour of a second successive quarter of negative growth. The economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June. Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP are regarded by economists as the technical definition of a recession.

然而，部分支出將永遠無法收回，即使9月份GDP出現小幅下降，也足以破壞平衡，促成連續第二個季度出現負增長。之前截至6月的三個月裏，經濟收縮了0.1%。而“GDP連續兩個季度下降”被經濟學家視為“經濟衰退”的技術性定義。

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Official figures show the economy staged a weaker than expected recovery in July, with monthly growth of 0.2%, following a sharp 0.6% fall in output in June, when the loss of a full working day due to the platinum jubilee weighed on activity.

官方數據顯示，7月經濟復甦弱於預期，環比增長0.2%，6月產出大幅下降0.6%，因鉑金週年慶典損失了一個完整工作日，影響了經濟活動。

After Liz Truss announced plans to freeze consumers’ energy bills from October, analysts expect that headline inflation is now unlikely to rise much further than the 40-year record set in July of 10.1%. However, while helping households with their living costs should cut the severity of a recession, it is unlikely to avoid one entirely, as families will still face gas and electricity costs of more than double a year ago.

在利茲·特拉斯宣佈從10月開始凍結消費者能源賬單的計劃後，分析人士預計，現在整體通貨膨脹率不太可能比7月創下的10.1%的40年記錄進一步上升。然而，儘管幫助家庭降低生活成本應該會降低衰退的嚴重程度，但不太可能完全避免衰退，因為家庭仍將面臨一年前兩倍多的天然氣和電力成本。

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said he expected GDP would eventually regain its previous level but some of the growth that would have happened will be foregone. Dales was already pencilling in a second quarter of negative growth between July and August, but now thinks the decline in the third quarter will be steeper.

凱投宏觀首席英國經濟學家保羅·戴爾斯表示，他預計GDP最終會恢復到之前的水平，但一些原本會出現的增長將會被放棄。戴爾斯此前已預估第二季經濟將在7 - 8月間出現負增長，但現在認為第三季下滑幅度將更大。

Some sectors and some regions of the UK will do better than others. London’s hospitality sector is expected to do good business from the crowds flocking to the capital to pay their respects. George Buckley, economist at Japanese bank Nomura said: “Florists in London will do well and sales of coffee will to through the roof. But in aggregate people aren’t going to be producing as much.”

英國的一些部門和一些地區將比其他部門表現更好。人們蜂擁而至以表達他們的敬意，倫敦的酒店業預計會有不錯的生意。日本野村證券的經濟學家喬治·巴克利表示：“倫敦的花店生意會很好，咖啡的銷量也會飆升。但總的來説，人們的生產不會那麼多。”