一戰後，盟軍肢解了奧匈帝國保持帝國的完整是否更明智？_風聞

【來源龍騰網】

評論原創翻譯：

Marisa Duchêne

Something which many forget is that the Austro-Hungarian empire didn’t disappear after the treaties of Saint-German and Trianon in 1919 and 1920. It had already disappeared in the autumn of 1918; the empire effectively collapsed and lost any form of effective authority in October and November of 1918.

As early as early October, unrest was already rising in the Hasburg empire, as the left half of the political sphere called for peace, supported by the minorities of Austria-Hungary; as the Austro-Hungarian military was in retreat on the Italian front. Pretty much every minority-majority area, but especially in Croatia and Bohemia, orders from Vienna started to be disregarded or disobeyed. On the 28th of October, four days after the decisive Italian victory of Vittorio Veneto, the Czech took control over Prague, and started to do the same for other cities of Czechia. On the 30th, the Slovaks decided to do the same. On the 28th, the South Slavs declared the state of State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, ruling over Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia, and then proceeded to seize the Austro-Hungarian fleet (with the agreement of emperor Karl the First, who wanted to avoid seeing those fall in the Entente’s hands). In december, the South Slavs state merged with Serbia, creating what would become Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia was also established on the 29th.

許多人忘了，奧匈帝國並不是在1919年和1920年的聖日耳曼和特里亞儂條約之後消失的。它在1918年秋天就已經結束了；帝國在1918年10月和11月基本上就已經崩潰了，失去了任何形式的有效權力。

早在10月初，哈斯堡帝國的動盪就已經開始了，因為政治領域的左半邊要求和平，並得到了奧匈帝國少數民族的支持；當奧匈帝國的軍隊在意大利前線撤退時。幾乎每個少數民族佔多數的地區，特別是在克羅地亞和波西米亞，對來自維也納的命令開始忽視或不服從。10月28日，在意大利取得維托里奧-維內託的決定性勝利四天後，捷克人控制了布拉格，並開始對捷克的其他城市採取同樣的行動。30日，斯洛伐克人決定採取同樣的行動。28日，南斯拉夫人宣佈成立斯洛文尼亞人、克羅地亞人和塞爾維亞人的國家，統治斯洛文尼亞、克羅地亞和波斯尼亞，然後着手奪取奧匈帝國的艦隊（得到了卡爾一世皇帝的同意，他希望避免看到這些艦隊落入協約國手中）。12月，南斯拉夫人國家與塞爾維亞合併，形成了後來的南斯拉夫。捷克斯洛伐克也在29日成立。

The SMS Viribus Unitis battleship of the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs navy, is sunk by a manned torpedo of the Italian navy. Unaware of the ship’s cession to the new South Slavs state, Italy wanted to eliminate the remains of the Austro-Hungarian fleet in order to avoid seeing a rivaling naval power rise in the Adriatic Sea.

On the 11th of November, emperor Karl the First announced he would no longer participate in Austrian politics; the same day, the Republic of German Austria was proclaimed. On the 16th, it was the turn of Hungary to proclaim a Republic and leave the Hasburg Empire, depriving them of their last territory. Hungary then experienced a communist revolution, and attacked Czechoslovakia and Romania. It quickly failed, and was eventually invaded by the Romanian army, which occupied almost all of Hungary; while in Budapest and what we know as Hungary nowadays, the Romanians weren’t here to stray, they indeed prepared the annexation of Transylvania. The Second Polish Republic also strongly held Galicia; Italy had taken control of Istria and South Tyrol, and even occupied Yugoslav Dalmatia.

Romanian artillery parade through Budapest, the Hungarian capital, 1919

斯洛文尼亞、克羅地亞和塞爾維亞民族國家海軍的SMS Viribus Unitis戰艦，被意大利海軍的一枚魚雷擊沉。由於不知道該艦已經被割讓給新的南斯拉夫人國家，意大利想消滅奧匈帝國艦隊的殘骸，以避免看到一個競爭對手的海軍力量在亞得里亞海上崛起。

11月11日，皇帝卡爾一世宣佈他將不再參與奧地利的政治；同一天，德意志奧地利共和國宣佈成立。16日，輪到匈牙利宣佈成立共和國並離開哈斯堡帝國，剝奪了他們最後的領土。匈牙利隨後經歷了一場共產主義革命，並進攻捷克斯洛伐克和羅馬尼亞。它很快就失敗了，最終被羅馬尼亞軍隊入侵，幾乎佔領了整個匈牙利；而在布達佩斯和我們現在所知道的匈牙利，羅馬尼亞人並不是來這裏玩的，他們確實準備吞併特蘭西瓦尼亞。波蘭第二共和國也強佔了加利西亞；意大利控制了伊斯特拉和南蒂羅爾，甚至還佔領了南斯拉夫的達爾馬提亞。

If the allies wanted to restore an Austro-Hungarian empire in the treaties of Saint-Germain and Trianon, they would have to overthrow the Austrian Republic and the new Horthy regency in Hungary, but also to oppose their World War One allies, Serbia/Yugoslavia, Romania, Italy, Poland and Czechoslovakia (a number of Czechoslovak and Polish prisoners fought for the Entente, and governments in exile were created for both). It would make absolutely no sense: Not only would the re-created Austro-Hungarian empire need massive support not to just fall, but the whole process would be way too costly in funds and men for the ruined Entente power of France and Great-Britain, who were already engaged against the Soviet unx in Russia and had populations that just wanted peace after four years of devastating conflict. While some may argue some territories like the Sudetenland or Southern Slovakia should have been given back to Austria and Hungary, even that would be impossible, at it is unlikely the Czechoslovakian state would agree to give up those crucial territories.

The Austro-Hungarian empire was already dead by October of 1918. No one would want to bring it back after all of its territories had been seized by other factions, nor keep supporting it so it don’t implode once again. To be honest, nothing could save the Austro-Hungarian empire by the point the Entente won the war - not even the Entente itself.

如果盟國想在《聖日耳曼條約》和《特里亞儂條約》中恢復奧匈帝國，他們就必須推翻奧地利共和國政權和匈牙利的新霍爾蒂政權，還要反對他們的一戰盟友塞爾維亞/南斯拉夫、羅馬尼亞、意大利、波蘭和捷克斯洛伐克（一些捷克斯洛伐克和波蘭的戰俘為協約國作戰，併為這兩個國家建立流亡政府）。這完全沒有意義。不僅重新建立的奧匈帝國需要大量的支持才不會倒下，而且整個過程對法國和英國這些被毀的協約國來説，在資金和人員方面付出的代價太大，因為他們已經在俄羅斯與蘇聯交戰，而且在四年的破壞性衝突之後，他們的民眾只想獲得和平。雖然有些人可能會説，像蘇台德地區或南斯洛伐克這樣的一些領土應該還給奧地利和匈牙利，但即使這樣也是不可能的，因為捷克斯洛伐克民族國家不可能同意放棄這些關鍵領土。

奧匈帝國在1918年10月就已經死亡。在它的所有領土都被其他派別奪取之後，沒有人會想讓它復生，也沒有人會繼續支持它，看着它再次內爆。説實話，在協約國贏得戰爭時，沒有什麼能拯救奧匈帝國--甚至協約國本身也不行。

Yumou Wei

But would the Dual Monarchy still have collapsed if Wilson didn’t propose the Fourteen Points in early 1918?

但是，如果威爾遜沒有在1918年初提出十四點建議，二元君主制還會崩潰嗎？

Marisa Duchêne

Yes, it would. Nationalisms within the Austro-Hungarian empire existed for far longer than the Fourteen Points. By 1918, the Czechoslovak and Polish legions were already a thing.

Furthermore, I doubt much of the population of Austria-Hungary even heard about the Fourteen Points prior to the collapse of the Hasburgs. While the fourteen points had an influence on the peace that was concluded, their role in the dissolution of Austria-Hungary was most likely minimal.

是的，會的。奧匈帝國內部的民族主義存在的時間遠比十四點原則長。到1918年，捷克斯洛伐克和波蘭的軍團已經是一個不可忽視的存在了。

此外，我懷疑在哈斯堡王朝垮台之前，奧匈帝國的許多人甚至有沒有聽説過十四點原則。雖然十四點原則對達成的和平有影響，但它們在奧匈帝國解體中的作用很可能是微乎其微的。

Wayne Solomon

Also, Hungary was never happy being in the Empire. They felt like second class citizens and wanted their independence.

另外，匈牙利在帝國中從來都不開心。他們覺得自己是二等公民，希望自己獨立。

Leo Severin

There is quite the arguement that the Hungarian’s strive for independence hamstrung the Empire. Another interesting point is that Jan Smuts of all people advocated for the restoration of Austria Hungary.

有相當多的論點認為，匈牙利人爭取獨立的努力阻礙了帝國的發展。另一個有趣的觀點是，揚-斯穆特主張恢復奧地利-匈牙利國家。

Dušan Peterc

Nice answer, I am only confused about the location of “Yugoslav Galicia”, as Galicia is quite far both from Yugoslavia and even further from Italy.

不錯的回答，我只是對"南斯拉夫的加利西亞"的位置感到困惑，因為加利西亞離南斯拉夫很遠，離意大利更遠。

Marisa Duchêne

Oh, that was a mistake. I meant Dalmatia…

哦，那是我寫錯了。我想説的是説達爾馬提亞…

Jose Geraldo Gouvea

Wasn’t Austria-Hungary already collapsing slowly since the Napoleonic Wars?

奧匈帝國不是從拿破崙戰爭開始就已經慢慢崩潰了嗎？

Alexandru Dragomir

Nice summary and quite complete. Being Romanian, I can’t discuss anything with a Hungarian to this day because Hungarians think Trianon the definitive national tragedy which lost them transylvania…and other less important territories. The Magyars were easily the biggest losers of the Hapsburg collapse, imo.

很好的總結，相當完整。作為羅馬尼亞人，我至今都不能和匈牙利人討論任何問題，因為匈牙利人認為特里亞儂會議是決定性的民族悲劇，使他們失去了特蘭西瓦尼亞……和其他不太重要的領土。在哈布斯堡王朝的崩潰中，馬扎爾人是最大的失敗者，我認為。

Dan Schillace

Well said. The Empire was DOA pretty much before the war started thanks to Franz Joseph’s unwillingness to consider reform. If Franz Ferdinand wasn’t assassinated, the Empire had a potential future as he was much more progressive in his political views. He knew things needed to change and even had some plans already in place for when he became Emperor. Of course, history went the other way.

説得好。由於弗朗茨-約瑟夫不願意考慮改革，帝國在戰爭開始前就已經死了。如果弗朗茨-費迪南沒有被暗殺，帝國還有潛在的未來，因為他的政治觀點要進步得多。他知道事情需要改變，甚至已經為他成為皇帝后制定了一些計劃。當然，歷史走向了另一個方向。

Nicolae Tudosie

Romania did not annex Transilvania. Transilvanian romanians proclaimed their desire to unite with Romania - and they were a majority there. Same thing in the northern Banat.

The occupation of Budapesta has little to do with the unx. As soon as a non-communist hungarian government took the reigns, romanians retreated and the final borders were negotiated.

羅馬尼亞並沒有吞併特蘭西瓦尼亞。特蘭西瓦尼亞的羅馬尼亞人宣稱他們希望與羅馬尼亞統一，而且他們在那裏佔多數。在巴納特北部也是如此。

對布達佩斯塔的佔領與重新統一沒有什麼關係。非共產黨的匈牙利政府一掌權，羅馬尼亞人就撤退了，最後的邊界也談成了。

Werner Furrer

Very interesting analysis, which actually Churchill missed to take note of. Instead he lamented in his memoirs, that it had been a mistake, to destroy the Austria-Hungarian empire, so that this became a prey of Germany during the prologue to WWII.

非常有趣的分析，實際上丘吉爾並沒有注意到這一點。相反，他在回憶錄中哀嘆，摧毀奧匈帝國是一個錯誤，以至於在二戰的序幕中，前奧匈帝國地區成為了德國的獵物。

Bulat Ziganshin

>the Soviet unx in Russia

it was declared in Dec 1922

>在俄羅斯與蘇聯作戰

後者於1922年12月宣佈成立

Marisa Duchêne

Sure, it was, by the time the treaties were signed, not formally created; but the Soviets Republics were already a thing. I did it to simplify, as I don’t think it would have been pleasant to include the name of all Soviet Republics, and it would just have confused those who did not hear about the Russian civil war.

當然，在簽署條約的時候，它還沒有正式成立；但那時的蘇維埃共和國已經是一個不可忽視的存在了。我這樣做是為了簡化，因為我認為把所有蘇維埃共和國的名稱都包括進去並不令人愉快，而且這隻會讓那些沒有聽説過俄羅斯內戰的人感到困惑。

Adam Gawlowski

And something tells me, the entente wouldnt have decided to fight their former allies, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, Poland in the name of their former enemy, Austria-Hungary. “Soldiers, you remember those you fought and those who helped you. Well uh, now fight the ones who helped you and help those who fought you” Though for Czechs, there was actually a debate as some preferred autonomy status in the empire, though that ended when it was certain it would lose

直覺告訴我，協約國不會決定為了他們以前的敵人奧匈帝國，而與他們以前的盟友塞爾維亞、捷克斯洛伐克、波蘭作戰。“士兵們，你們記得那些你們戰鬥過的人和那些幫助過你們的人。”儘管對捷克人來説，實際上確實有過一場辯論，因為有些人更喜歡在帝國中的自治地位，但當帝國在戰爭中確定會輸的時候，辯論就結束了。