周波：上合組織若想長治久安，必須吸納阿富汗為正式成員

【文/觀察者網專欄作者 周波】

針對哈薩克斯坦的暴亂，以俄羅斯為首的集體安全條約組織（Collective Security Treaty Organization，CSTO，以下簡稱集安組織）國家做出了迅速果斷的反應。這向同在該地區的上海合作組織（Shanghai Cooperation Organisation，SCO，以下簡稱上合組織）拋出了一個問題：在類似情況下，上合組織能否同樣有效？

自 2001 年上合組織成立以來，成員國幾乎每年都根據該組織的章程精神舉行聯合反恐演習。但哪個國家可能真的會向該組織尋求跨國界的幫助呢？

當阿富汗仍在上合之外時，上合組織無法在歐亞大陸解決恐怖主義問題。來源：《南華早報》

答案可能是沒有。 俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦四國都是上合組織成員國，同時也都是集安組織中的盟國。正如哈薩克斯坦最近證明地那樣，在必要時，這些國家會首先向集安組織尋求幫助。

與此同時，中國、印度和巴基斯坦（上合組織成員國）有足夠能力，可以在沒有外界幫助情況下處理任何國內動亂，上合組織國家中唯一不確定的是在2012年退出集安組織的烏茲別克斯坦。

在該地區，最需要在反恐方面獲得外部幫助的國家是阿富汗——上合組織目前的觀察員國。説得諷刺一點，阿富汗的份量似乎在於它可能給其他國家帶來的麻煩。

在上合組織成立大會上，哈薩克斯坦時任總統納扎爾巴耶夫曾在發言中將阿富汗描述為 “恐怖主義、分裂主義和極端主義的搖籃”。根據聯合國的數據，2020年，阿富汗佔全球鴉片產量的85%左右。

阿富汗罌粟種植面積大幅增加，從1998年的41000公頃增加到2000年的64000公頃，種植面積主要在赫爾曼德省，佔世界非法鴉片產量的39%。來源：BBC

國際社會的願望是，塔利班領導的阿富汗政府能夠變得温和、包容，並堅決打擊恐怖主義。雖然這一點無法保證，但塔利班迄今至少做了正確表態，承諾保障人民的生命和財產、尊重婦女的權利。

想必，這屆政府的領導人已經從9·11之前掌權的塔利班身上吸取了一些教訓。

因此，國際社會應該給塔利班一個兑現承諾的機會，尤其是因為阿富汗人民正在遭受世界上最嚴重的人道主義危機，而嚴冬、乾旱和國際援助的不足，令情況雪上加霜。據報道，該國4000萬居民中有一半以上面臨糧食不足的問題。

上合組織可以如何提供幫助？首先，作為上合組織實際領導人和聯合國安理會常任理事國，中國和俄羅斯應該敦促美方解除單邊制裁，並儘快解凍阿富汗超過90億美元的海外央行儲備。 截至目前，拜登政府提供了援助，但沒有直接與它所憎惡的塔利班政府打交道。

然而，這是行不通的。據《紐約時報》報道，援助組織警告説，今年冬天可能有100萬阿富汗兒童死亡。這可能是危言聳聽，但即使1萬名兒童死亡，這也是犯罪，而不只是恥辱。如果阿富汗人民死的時候他們的錢還握在你手裏，人們可以理直氣壯地説他們死是你造成的。

聯合國警告稱，100萬阿富汗兒童可能在“最危險的時刻”死亡。來源：《紐約時報》

同時，聯合國應明確列出塔利班必須滿足的條件，以換取解除制裁。以武力奪取政權的塔利班不是阿富汗人民選擇的，但目前還沒有任何一個政黨看起來有能力在短期內取代他們。因此，聯合國面臨的挑戰是如何定義“温和”和“包容”這類的模糊詞彙。

如果這些條件包括讓女性或普什圖人加入政府、允許婦女工作和女孩上學，塔利班很可能會同意，因為這是他們已經承諾的。至少在紙面上，這些條件遠比伊朗或朝鮮核協議中的條件更容易滿足。

雖然上合組織現在不一定需要承認塔利班政府的合法性，但它應該利用2005年成立的上合組織-阿富汗聯絡小組與塔利班進行聯絡。最關鍵的是，即使塔利班同其他所有恐怖組織過去有交情、有相似的意識形態、甚至姻親，塔利班現在也必須同它們一刀兩斷。

放眼未來，阿富汗需要成為上合組織成員國，才能使其避免看起來像一塊無路可走的飛地；問題在於何時，阿富汗於2015 年申請成為正式成員後，就一直在等待。

難道喀布爾只有在不再是問題的時候才能加入嗎？還是上合組織應該先讓它進來，再從內部解決問題？抑或，如果這個問題像疫情一樣根本不會消失，那麼該組織能否學會與之共存？

2017年6月9日，印度、巴基斯坦成為上合組織正式成員。來源：CCDCOE

2017年，印度和巴基斯坦同時加入了上合組織。雖然這兩個互不信任到似乎難以調和的國家也把問題帶了進來，但至少印度作為世界第六大經濟體，為該組織增添了份量。

讓喀布爾成為成員國的好處是，上合組織可以在緩解最壞情況方面發揮關鍵作用。作為成員國，無論誰執政阿富汗政府，都必須防止極端主義運動蔓延到鄰國。

成為成員國還能使阿富汗融入該地區的政治和經濟版圖，這一點對其未來的繁榮至關重要。畢竟，阿富汗60%以上的貿易是與上合組織國家進行的。

阿富汗不僅是一個內陸國，而且也幾乎被上合組織國家包圍。如果阿富汗不穩定，上合組織就會受到影響。橫跨歐亞腹地已頗為艱辛，但如果上合組織想要變得更加強大，就應該勇敢地擁抱一個掌握着地區和平穩定關鍵的國家。

翻譯：程澤笠、許馨勻 核譯：韓樺

SCO cannot tackle terrorism in Eurasia while Afghanistan remains outside the bloc

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert

The swift and decisive response by countries of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to the riots in Kazakhstan raises a question for its peer in the region, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): can it become equally effective in a similar situation?

Since the inauguration of the SCO in 2001, member states have held joint counterterrorism exercises almost annually, in line with the spirit of the group’s charter. But which country might really ask for cross-border help from the organisation?

The answer is probably none. Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, all member states of the SCO, are also allies in the CSTO. If necessary, they would seek help from the alliance first, as Kazakhstan proved recently.

China, India and Pakistan, meanwhile, are strong enough to deal with any domestic unrest without external help. The only uncertainty among SCO states is Uzbekistan, which left the CSTO in 2012.

The country in the region that needs most external help in counterterrorism efforts is Afghanistan, currently an observer state of the SCO. Cynically speaking, the heft of Afghanistan seems to lie in the troubles it might bring to other countries.

At the founding ceremony of the SCO, president Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan described Afghanistan as “the cradle of terrorism, separatism and extremism” in his opening remarks. According to the UN, Afghanistan accounted for some 85 per cent of global opium production in 2020.

The wish of the international community is for the Taliban-led Afghan government to become moderate, inclusive and resolute in fighting terrorism. There is no guarantee of that, but at least the Taliban has said the right things, promising that people’s lives and property would be safeguarded and women’s rights respected.

Presumably, the leaders of this government have learned some lessons from their avatars who were in power before September 11.

The international community should therefore give the Taliban a chance to honour its promise, not least because the Afghan people are suffering from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by the harsh winter, drought and insufficient international aid. More than half the country’s 40 million residents are reportedly facing food insecurity.

How can the SCO help? First and foremost, as de facto leaders of the SCO and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia should urge the US to lift its unilateral sanctions and unfreeze the more than US$9 billion in overseas central bank reserves as soon as possible. So far, the Biden administration has offered aid without dealing directly with the Taliban-led government it abhors.

This won’t work. According to The New York Times, aid groups have warned that 1 million Afghan children could die this winter. This may be alarmist, but even if 10,000 children die, it will be a crime rather than a shame. If Afghan people are dying while their money is in your hands, people can safely argue they are dying because of you.

Concurrently, the UN should lay down clear conditions that the Taliban has to meet in exchange for lifting sanctions. The Afghan people did not choose the Taliban, who took power by force, but there is no political party in sight that looks capable of replacing them any time soon. The challenge for the UN, then, is how to define such slippery words as “moderate” and “inclusive”.

If these terms mean including people who are not male or Pashtun in government, allowing women to work and girls to go to school, the Taliban would most probably agree since this is what they have already promised. At least on paper, these conditions are much easier to meet than those found in the Iranian or North Korean nuclear deals.

Although the SCO doesn’t necessarily need to recognise the legitimacy of the Taliban-led government now, it should use the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group that was established in 2005 to liaise with the Taliban. Crucially, the Taliban must break away from all terrorist groups, even if they are bound by historical friendship, ideological similarity and even intermarriage.

Looking beyond the horizon, Afghanistan needs to become an SCO member state if it is to avoid looking like an enclave that leads to nowhere. The question is when. Afghanistan applied for full membership in 2015 and has been waiting ever since.

Can Kabul only join when it is no longer a problem? Or should the SCO let it in and resolve the problem from within? Or, if the problem is one which, like the pandemic, simply won’t go away, could the organisation learn to live with it?

In 2017, India and Pakistan both joined the SCO. Although the countries brought with them a seemingly irreconcilable mutual distrust, at least India’s economy, now the sixth largest in the world, has added strength to the organisation.

The benefit of granting Kabul full membership is that the SCO could play a pivotal role in mitigating worst-case scenarios. As a full member, the Afghan government – no matter who is in power – would be obliged to prevent extremist movements from spilling over into neighbouring countries.

Membership would also allow Afghanistan to be woven into the political and economic fabric of the region, something which is crucial for its future prosperity. After all, more than 60 per cent of Afghanistan’s trade is with SCO countries.

Afghanistan is not only landlocked, but it is almost SCO-locked as well. If it is not stable, the SCO will suffer. Striding over the Eurasian heartland is already a large undertaking. But for the SCO to become stronger, it should be brave enough to embrace a country that holds the key to regional peace and stability.

原文鏈接：https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165595/sco-cannot-tackle-terrorism-eurasia-while-afghanistan-remains?module=opinion&pgtype=homepage

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