趙明昊：黨的二十大對中美關係意味着什麼

文/趙明昊

黨的二十大，展現了一種顯著的政策延續性。習近平繼續擔任黨的最高領導人，他所提出的一系列標誌性概念，如“中國式現代化”、“高質量發展”、“共同富裕”和“人類命運共同體”，成為二十大報告的關鍵詞。華盛頓已將新時代的中國視為美國的最重要競爭者。拜登政府在黨的二十大舉行前夕，發佈《國家安全戰略報告》宣稱，中國是唯一一個既有意願也有能力重塑國際秩序的對手。這意味着美國針對中國的競爭性戰略將會在未來數年變得更為強勢。

中共領導人對此有着清醒的認知。習近平總書記在黨的二十大報告中表示，“準備經受風高浪急甚至驚濤駭浪的重大考驗”。在地緣衝突、高通脹、能源和糧食危機等多重因素的共同作用之下，全球經濟形勢正在變得日益危急，中國發展的外部環境也將更趨嚴峻。與此同時，中國國內也需要應對青年就業、老齡化、收入不平等、保護生態環境等諸多艱困挑戰。在中共看來，這更加需要保持國內政治的穩定。黨的二十大報告鮮明地強調了政權安全的重要性。

顯然，美國正在經濟、科技領域對華推動有管理的“脱鈎”。拜登政府10月7日發佈的前所未有的新舉措，被認為是試圖完全阻斷中國在芯片產業以及超級計算等領域的進步。

美國總統拜登於今年簽署《芯片和科學法案》（圖源：IC Photo）

在此背景之下，北京正在重新考慮如何保障經濟安全。黨的二十大報告提出要建立“現代產業體系”，並且強調要增強內循環的“可靠性”。

中共領導人也對科技問題賦予了更高程度的重視。習近平總書記在黨的二十大報告中提出：“堅持創新在我國現代化建設全局中的核心地位，健全新型舉國體制。”拜登政府的《國家安全戰略報告》也將科技視為中美競爭的首要領域。美國國務卿布林肯近日訪問硅谷以動員美國科技企業更加積極地參與針對中國的“技術外交”。

在外交政策方面，黨的二十大報告體現了中國將會更加進取地塑造自己的外部環境。習近平總書記稱，未來要繼續“旗幟鮮明反對一切霸權主義和強權政治，毫不動搖地反對任何單邊主義、保護主義、霸凌行徑”。這些話似乎表明，中國將會堅定應對來自美國的挑釁和壓力。黨的二十大報告把“堅持敢於鬥爭、善於鬥爭”確立為一種原則。越來越多的中國政治精英傾向於認為，即便作出妥協和讓步，美國也不會改變阻滯中國崛起進程的戰略意圖。

未來數年，中美在台灣問題上的較量將會變得更加激烈。黨的二十大報告基本延續了中共此前在台灣問題上的政策表述，稱“我們堅持以最大誠意、盡最大努力爭取和平統一的前景，但決不承諾放棄使用武力，保留採取一切必要措施的選項。”與此同時，習近平總書記強調，“武力”選項針對的是外部勢力干涉和極少數“台獨”分裂分子及其分裂活動，絕非針對廣大台灣同胞。

美國過度渲染中國大陸的“武統”時間表是一種極為危險的策略。就在黨的二十大舉辦期間，布林肯聲稱中國正在“大大加快”統一台灣的計劃，美國海軍作戰部長、海軍上將邁克爾·吉爾代（Michael Gilday）則在大西洋理事會舉行的會議上警告，大陸甚至可能會在明年展開行動。拜登政府希望藉助這些幾無事實依據的猜測推動盟友整軍備戰，並對中國大陸進行一種政治威懾。但它很可能導致本不願出現的後果——中美在台海兵戎相見。

在北京越來越多人擔心，美國有意複製挑起俄烏衝突的戲碼，炒作戰爭的可能性，並製造一個自我實現的預言，將中國拉入“戰爭黑洞”。如果美國採取“台灣政策法案”所提出的一系列重大挑釁舉措，中國大陸不會坐視不管，北京堅持認為台灣問題是中美關係裏最敏感的問題。

即便存在上述戰略風險和挑戰，中共領導人仍然展現出一種信心，並強調中國將致力於促進世界和平與發展。中美兩國元首有可能在下個月舉行的G20峯會期間舉行面對面會晤，在巨大分歧和激烈競爭之下找到“和平共處”的道路，符合雙方的長遠利益。

我們這個時代最慘烈的悲劇將是世界上兩個最大的強國之間爆發戰爭，世界期待中美擁有共同智慧來避免這樣一場世界末日。

原文：

More than anything else, the message from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was one of continuity. Xi Jinping continues to serve as the party’s top leader, and his signature concepts such as “Chinese modernisation”, “high-quality development”, “common prosperity” and “community with a shared future” remain prominent in the 20th national congress report.

Washington has already cast Xi’s China as the most serious geopolitical challenge the United States is facing. The Biden administration’s latest national security strategy, released on the eve of the 20th congress, asserts that China is the only competitor with the intent and ability to reshape the international order. This means America’s competitive strategy vis-à-vis China will only increase in scope and intensity.

Beijing is fully aware of this. In his report to the 20th national congress, Xi said that China must be “be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms”. Given rising geopolitical conflict, high inflation and energy and food crises around the world, the global economic situation is becoming incredibly grim, and China is not immune.

At the same time, China also has to deal with daunting challenges at home, such as youth unemployment, an ageing population, income inequality and ecological sustainability. In the CPC’s view, these adverse factors are exactly why domestic political stability is needed, to weather the coming storms; this point was repeatedly hammered home in the 20th national congress report.

It is at this juncture that America is attempting a managed economic and technological “decoupling” from China. In particular, the Biden administration issued unprecedented chip export controls on October 7, which were widely seen as an attempt to halt China’s progress in chip manufacturing and other advanced electronic industries.

中方將堅決應對來自美國的壓力（作者供圖）

In light of such developments, Beijing is reconsidering how to safeguard economic security. The 20th national congress report calls for the modernisation of the industrial system and emphasises the need to enhance the reliability of the domestic economy.

The party is also focusing more on technology. In his report to the national congress, Xi stated that “innovation will remain at the heart of China’s modernisation drive”, and proposed an improved “new system for mobilising resources nationwide to make key technological breakthroughs”.

The Biden administration also views technology as a primary area of competition between the US and China. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Silicon Valley to highlight the importance of “technology diplomacy”.

On the foreign policy front, the national congress report indicates that China will continue to be more active in shaping its external environment. Xi said that China has “taken a clear-cut stance against hegemonism and power politics in all their forms, and we have never wavered in our opposition to unilateralism, protectionism, and bullying of any kind”.

These words mean that China will firmly respond to pressure from the US, which it perceives to be manifestations of the aforementioned “hegemonism”, “unilateralism” and “bullying”. The congress report also said that China would adhere to principles including harnessing its “fighting spirit”.

A growing number of Chinese political elites have reached the conclusion that even if China makes compromises and concessions, the US will not change its strategic intent to contain or even reverse China’s rise.

In the coming years, Taiwan in particular is likely to emerge as a key flashpoint in this competition. The 20th national congress report mostly maintains the party’s policy on Taiwan, stating that China will “continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary”.

At the same time, Xi emphasised that such an option is aimed “solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and their separatist activities”, and not at most people in Taiwan.

The US playing up China’s supposed timetable for armed reunification is an extremely dangerous tactic. In the week of the national congress in Beijing, Blinken said in Silicon Valley that China was accelerating its plans to reunify Taiwan, while Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, warned at the Atlantic Council that China could make a move as soon as this year.

The Biden administration may be hoping that such unsubstantiated speculation would push America’s allies to prepare for war, thus serving as a political deterrent to China. But it could increase the chances of inadvertent consequences that neither side wants, such as armed US-China conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

There is growing concern in Beijing that the US is intent on replicating the playbook of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: hyping up the possibility of war, and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that pulls China into the black hole of war. If the US takes a series of provocative steps as outlined in the Taiwan Policy Act, China will not sit idly by, as Beijing considers the issue of Taiwan to be the most sensitive one in US-China relations.

Even faced with these strategic risks and challenges, the Communist Party leadership has demonstrated its confidence in the future, and emphasised China’s commitment to world peace and development.

It is in the long-term interest of both sides that the Chinese and US heads of state meet face to face, possibly on the sidelines of the G20 summit next month, to find a path towards peaceful coexistence, amid deep differences and fierce competition.

The greatest tragedy of our age would be a war between the world’s two largest powers, for they are expected to have the collective wisdom to avoid such an Armageddon.

Zhao Minghao is a professor at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, and a China Forum Expert

This Article was first published on South China Morning Post on Oct. 25, 2022.

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