周波：中國可以發揮對俄獨特影響力，防止歐洲發生核衝突

【文/觀察者網專欄作者 周波】

普京會對烏克蘭使用核武器嗎？這個至關重大的問題不僅與基輔和歐洲有關，也牽扯到中國。迄今，北京在其戰略伙伴俄羅斯和重要貿易伙伴烏克蘭之間精心維繫着平衡。在9月的撒馬爾罕峯會期間，普京對中國在烏克蘭衝突中的“平衡立場”表示感謝。

但是，如果莫斯科決定對烏克蘭使用戰術核武器，中國將很難繼續保持現在的立場。在2013年12月北京與基輔的聯合聲明中，中國表示不會對烏克蘭使用或威脅使用核器，更為重要的是，在烏克蘭面臨來自第三方的此類威脅情況下，北京將提供安全保證。

因此，普京愈演愈烈的言辭無疑加重了北京的關切。他上月表態將準備“不惜一切代價”捍衞俄羅斯的“領土完整”。如果其軍隊在戰場上掙扎——烏克蘭軍隊正在收復哈爾科夫等地區，俄羅斯部署戰術核導彈的可能性就會增加。

中國迄今未向俄羅斯提供任何軍事援助。但鑑於北京對莫斯科的巨大影響，它可以在防止核衝突方面發揮自身的獨特優勢。

首先，北京應該告訴莫斯科遵守五個核大國於今年1月發表的聯合聲明：“核戰爭打不贏也打不得”。俄羅斯擁有世界上最大的核武庫，當俄方威脅當年選擇放棄核武器的烏克蘭時，它已玷污了自己的聲譽。如果普京坐實他對烏克蘭人的威脅，那就更加駭人聽聞。普京以前曾説過，烏克蘭人與俄羅斯人“實際上是同一民族”。

第二，北京應該明確地告訴克里姆林宮，在戰場上使用核武器將置中國於非常困難的境地。半個多世紀以來，北京一直奉行“不首先使用”核武器的政策。雖然其他國防政策已經調整，但這一點絲毫未變，中國以擁有最穩定、最可持續和最可預測的核戰略而自豪。

北京現在最不想要的就是與歐洲各國關係惡化。在美國加緊與中國的競爭時，歐洲並非始終站在美國一邊，這很重要。普京已經承認，北京對俄烏戰爭有“疑問和擔憂”。如果他使用核武器，北京的反應將遠遠超出疑問和擔憂。在全世界都對莫斯科表示抗議的情況下，中國是否還能保持中立？如果聯合國安理會投票譴責俄羅斯的行徑，北京還能棄權嗎？

最後，北京可以在俄羅斯和北約談判中發揮重要的調停作用。例如，北約可以承諾停止任何進一步的擴張，以換取莫斯科同意不使用核武器。這樣的妥協能讓雙方都保住面子。在1962年古巴導彈危機期間，美國總統肯尼迪和蘇聯領導人赫魯曉夫達成了類似的協議：蘇聯將拆除其在古巴部署的彈道導彈以換取美國不再入侵古巴的承諾。私下裏，美國還同意拆除所有部署在土耳其可能用於對付俄羅斯的中程彈道導彈。

鑑於莫斯科的首要關切是北約擴張，普京可能認為這個選擇值得考慮。這個選擇也值得北約考慮。北約不顧克里姆林宮的警告執意東擴，已經將歐洲推向核衝突的邊緣。普京説得對，這是俄羅斯與西方之間的戰爭，而不是俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的戰爭。出於誠意，北約可以表態承諾不首先對俄羅斯或在莫斯科的勢力範圍內使用核武器。

在一部2018年的紀錄片中，普京問道：“沒有俄羅斯，要世界幹什麼？”回答應該是，“如果沒有世界，俄羅斯又在哪裏？”如果普京現在打開一個即使在冷戰時也一直關閉的核潘多拉魔盒，那堪稱愚蠢之極。中國可以幫助世界，只需告訴普京：“總統先生，不要使用核武器！”

翻譯：中國論壇 宋憶寧

核譯：許馨勻 韓樺

英文原文：

Zhou Bo: China can use its leverage with Russia to prevent a nuclear war

Will Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? This billion-dollar question matters not only to Kyiv and Europe, but also to China. So far Beijing has trodden a careful line between Russia, its strategic partner, and Ukraine, which is a significant trading partner. During September’s Samarkand summit, Vladimir Putin thanked China for its “balanced position” on the Ukraine conflict.

But if Moscow decides to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, China can hardly maintain such a position anymore. A joint declaration between Beijing and Kyiv in December 2013 agreed that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, more importantly, will provide security assurances in the event of any such threat by a third party.

Putin’s intensifying rhetoric is therefore raising the stakes for Beijing. He said last month he would be ready to defend the “territorial integrity” of Russia “by all means.” If his military is struggling on the battlefield — which it is in areas such as Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces are retaking lost territory — then the likelihood of Russia deploying tactical nuclear missiles only increases.

China has so far refrained from providing any military assistance to Russia. But given Beijing’s huge influence on Moscow, it is uniquely positioned to do more to prevent a nuclear conflict.

First, Beijing should tell Moscow to honour the five nuclear powers’ joint statement in January that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and threatening Ukraine — which chose to give up its nuclear weapons — has already tarnished its reputation. It would be all the more appalling if Putin followed through on his threat against Ukrainian citizens, who he had previously described as “practically one people” with Russians.

Second, Beijing should make clear to the Kremlin that using nuclear weapons on the battlefield would put China in a very difficult situation. Beijing has maintained a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons for more than half a century. While other defence policies have changed, this has held firm and China prides itself on having nuclear strategies which are the most stable, sustainable and predictable among nuclear powers.

The last thing Beijing wants now is a sour relationship with European capitals. At a time when the US is ramping up its competition with China, it is particularly important that Europe does not always take America’s side. Putin has admitted that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about Russia’s invasion — but if he uses nuclear weapons, then Beijing’s response will go far beyond questions and concerns. Could China remain neutral in the event of international protests against Moscow? And could Beijing abstain from a UN Security Council vote condemning Russia for its actions?

Finally, Beijing could play a significant role in brokering a deal between Russia and Nato. For example, Nato could promise to halt any further expansion in exchange for Moscow agreeing not to use nuclear weapons. Such a compromise would save face on both sides. During the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, US President John F. Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev reached a similar agreement: the Soviets would dismantle their ballistic missiles in Cuba in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba again. Secretly, America also agreed to dismantle all of the Jupiter medium-range ballistic missiles which had been stationed in Turkey for possible use against Russia.

Since Moscow’s primary concern has been Nato expansion, Putin might find this option worth considering. It would be worth thinking about for Nato too. The alliance’s expansion in the face of the Kremlin’s warnings has helped push Europe to the brink of a nuclear conflict. Putin is right to conclude this is a war between Russia and the west rather than between Russia and Ukraine. As a goodwill gesture, Nato could pledge not to use nuclear weapons first against Russia or within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

In a 2018 documentary, Putin asked, “Why do we need a world without Russia in it?” The answer should be, “But where is Russia without the world?” If Putin now opens a nuclear Pandora’s box that was kept closed even during the cold war, it would be a moment of infinite stupidity. China can help the world by simply telling Putin: don’t use nuclear weapons, Mr President.

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