世界為氣候變化導致的大規模遷移做好準備了嗎？_風聞

【來源龍騰網】

正文原創翻譯：

I’ve had an obsession with maps ever since I first sought my bearings in Winnie the Pooh’s “Hundred Aker Wood”, trying to discover where was “nice for piknicks”, and the locations of the characters’ houses. My childhood was spent studying and drawing treasure maps, charting imaginary lands and plotting routes to faraway places I longed to visit.

自從我第一次在《小熊維尼》的“百畝森林”裏判斷方位，試圖找到“野餐的好去處”和角色的房屋時，就迷戀上了地圖。我小時候喜歡研究和繪製藏寶圖、虛幻之地、通往我夢寐以求的遙遠國度的路線圖。

Today, my home is plastered with the maps I’ve collected or been given – reminders of places that are special to me. By my desk, I have a large world map, the continents distinguished from the oceans by their mosaic of colours. Each coloured patch is a country, separated from its neighbour by a neat line drawn onto this two-dimensional representation of our world.

如今，我家裏貼滿了收集來的或別人給我的地圖，提醒我那些特殊的地方。我的書桌旁邊有一幅巨大的世界地圖，大洲和大洋以各種顏色區分開。在這幅二維的世界地圖上，每個色塊代表一個國家，並以清晰的線條與鄰國分隔開。

The borders are cleanly defined, ink separating nationalities destined for different fates. For me, these lines mark exciting possibilities, with the potential for exploration and adventure, to visit foreign cultures with different foods and languages. For others, they are prison walls that limit all possibilities.

國界的劃分很明確，利用油墨將各有天命的民族分隔開。對我來説，國界線標誌着令人興奮的可能性：探索與冒險，體驗異國文化以及各種飲食和語言。對別人而言，國界是限制一切可能性的監獄圍牆。

Borders define our fate, our life expectancy, our identity, and so much more. Yet they are an invention just like the maps I used to draw. Our borders don’t exist as immutable facets of the landscape, they are not natural parts of our planet, and were invented relatively recently.

國界劃分了我們的命運、預期壽命、身份等等。但正如我小時候繪製的地圖，國界是一項發明。我們的國界不是一成不變的景觀，不是地球上的天然存在，而是近代才出現的發明。

It can be argued, however, that most of these imaginary lines are not fit for the world of the 21st Century with its soaring population, dramatic climate change and resource scarcity. Indeed, the idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. They needed their labour and taxes, and emigration still poses a headache for many states.

然而，可以説大多數虛構的國界線不適合21世紀的世界：人口攀升、氣候急劇變化、資源稀缺。事實上，利用國界將外國人拒之門外的觀念是近代出現的。在過去，國家主要關心的是阻止人們離境而不是入境。他們需要勞動力和税收，遷移出境至今讓許多國家感到頭疼。

There are, however, true human borders set not by politics or hereditary sovereigns, but by the physical properties of our planet. These planetary borders for our mammal species are defined by geography and climate. Humans cannot live in large numbers in Antarctica or in the Sahara Desert, for instance. As global temperatures increase, causing climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather over the coming decades, large parts of the world that are home to some of the biggest populations will become increasingly hard to live in. Coastlines, island states and major cities in the tropics will be among the hardest hit, according to predictions by climate scientists.

然而，世界上存在真正的人類國界，它們不是由政治或世襲君主劃分的，而是由地球的物理特徵決定的。我們這些哺乳動物的地球國界是由地貌和氣候劃分的，例如，人類無法在南極洲或撒哈拉沙漠裏大量生存。在未來幾十年裏，隨着全球氣温升高導致氣候變化、海平面上升、極端天氣，世界上人口最多的大部分地區將變得越來越難以適合居住。根據氣候學家的預測，沿海地區、島國、熱帶地區的主要城市將遭受最嚴重的影響。

Unable to adapt to increasingly extreme conditions, millions – or even billions – of people will need to move.

由於無法適應日益極端的環境，數百萬乃至數十億人將需要遷移。

The most densely populated areas of the planet are clustered around the 25-26th north parallels which has traditionally been the latitude of most comfortable climate and fertile land. An estimated 279 million people are packed into this thin band of land, which cuts through countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States and Mexico.

地球上人口最密集的地區集中在北緯25-26度，這裏歷來是氣候最適宜和土地最肥沃的地區。大約2.79億人聚居在這片狹長的土地上，橫貫的國家包括印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉國、中國、美國、墨西哥。

But the conditions here are changing. On average, climate niches – the range of conditions at which species can normally exist – around the world are moving polewards at a pace of 1.15m (3.8ft) per day, although it’s far faster in some places. Adapting to the changing climate will mean chasing our own shifting niche – which for much of human history has been within the temperature range -11C to 15C (12F to 59F) – as it migrates north from the equator. True livability limits are the borders we must worry about as the world warms over this century, bringing unbearable heat, drought, floods, fires, storms, and coastal erosion that make agriculture impossible and displace people.

但這裏的環境正在發生變化。大體而言，全世界的氣候生態位（物種正常生存的環境範圍）正在以每天1.15米（3.8英尺）的速度向極地發生偏移，而某些地區的速度更快。我們適應氣候變化意味着追尋變化的生態位——在人類大部分歷史時期，生態位的温度範圍是-11-15攝氏度（12-59華氏度）——生態位從赤道向北方偏移。真正制約可居住性的因素是我們必須擔憂的國界，因為本世紀全球變暖導致無法忍受的熱浪、乾旱、洪水、火災、風暴、海岸侵蝕，致使農業荒廢，人們流離失所。

Already record numbers of people are being forced to flee their homes with each passing year. In 2021, there were 89.3 million people, double the number forcibly displayed a decade ago, and in 2022 that number reached 100 million, with climate disasters displacing many more people than conflicts. Floods displaced 33 million people in Pakistan this year, while millions more in Africa have been affected by drought and the threat of famine, from the Horn of Africa to the continent’s west coast.

每年都有數量空前的人們逃離家園。2021年是8930萬人，相當於十年前明確公佈數據的兩倍。2022年達到1億人，氣候災害比衝突導致更多的人流離失所。今年，巴基斯坦洪水導致3300萬人流離失所，非洲數千萬人遭受乾旱和饑荒的威脅，包括非洲之角和非洲西部沿岸。

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi appealed to global leaders at the COP27 climate change conference to take bold action to tackle the humanitarian consequences of global warming. That change needs to be “transformational” according to the UNHRC. “We cannot leave millions of displaced people and their hosts to face the consequences of a changing climate alone,” says Grandi.

在聯合國氣候變化大會第27次締約方會議上，聯合國難民署高級專員菲利波·格蘭迪向全球各國領導人呼籲，採取果敢行動應對全球變暖導致的人道主義後果。聯合國人權理事會表示，我們需要“逆轉”這些變化。“我們不能讓千百萬流離失所的人們及其棲息地獨自面對氣候變化帶來的後果”格蘭迪説道。