如果盟國沒有參與二戰中的太平洋戰爭,中國僅憑自己的力量能否贏得抗日戰爭的勝利?_風聞
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如果盟國沒有參與二戰中的太平洋戰爭,中國僅憑自己的力量能否贏得抗日戰爭的勝利?
本文譯自Quora,原標題:Without the Allies involvement in WW2 in the Pacific, would the Japanese have been able to conquer China?
Grant Mitchell Spork
Director UAV Drone Surveys at Self-Employment (2010-present),Lives in Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia
自僱的無人機調研負責人(2010年至今),生活在澳大利亞昆士蘭陽光海岸
日本人征服了除偏遠的內陸以外的中國大部分地區,中國所有的沿海港口和主要的河流水系都在日本的控制之下。日本人還吞併了整個朝鮮半島,台灣省、香港、新加坡、馬來西亞、越南、柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸部分地區、印度尼西亞、菲律賓、婆羅洲等。
在珍珠港與美國開戰可能被視為日本的一個錯誤!毛領導下的GC黨和蔣介石領導下的國民黨將作為獨立的游擊隊與日本作戰,美國和英國將為他們提供軍事援助並襲擊日本的後勤和供應基地。有了更多援助和訓練的GC黨軍隊和蔣介石軍隊可能遏制住日本對中國內陸的控制。
日本人主要對富裕的貿易港口和城市及其後勤、原材料礦山感興趣。在東南亞,他們對橡膠和食品供應、木材感興趣。在婆羅洲,他們想要荷蘭殼牌石油和英國石油的資產。為了不把同盟國捲進來,日本需要遠離菲律賓、上海、香港、新加坡、吉隆坡、緬甸和印度尼西亞,因為這些國家和城市是盟國的領土或保護地。雖然日本入侵了滿洲,但這是蘇聯人的麻煩,他們大約在1905年的一次海戰和對日戰爭中曾經被擊敗過。
在日本入侵中國大陸和滿洲後,美國決定停止向日本出售鐵礦石、鑄錠或石油。由於當時美國是日本主要的石油來源,而婆羅洲歸荷蘭和英國所有……美國的這一行動切斷了日本與這一重要能源的聯繫,而中東的石油資源主要是在第二次世界大戰後開始生產的。中國被視為一個可以被殖民的枯竭的文明,然後被用作日本軍事工業綜合體的資源供應地。當納粹襲擊法國、比利時和荷蘭而它們強大的海軍無法做出回應時,英國和荷蘭正在歐洲為它們的生存而戰。日本為了吞併重要的石油和原材料供應地而對美國的珍珠港展開了襲擊,但一旦美國真正開始生產戰爭武器時,日本就在軍事上陷入了困境。美國計劃建造100多艘航空母艦,但最終只完成了少數幾艘。而且它們大多數在第二次世界大戰期間並沒有服役,但美國軍事力量的規模和高空轟炸機超級堡壘機羣的建造意味着在美國及其盟友變得更加強大之前,日本只有幾年的時間可以稱霸。
Ronald Isaacs
説得好,我同意你的一些觀點,除了一個關鍵的陳述,即美國在日本徵服朝鮮和滿洲時並沒有禁止出口石油到日本,它們在1941夏天日本入侵中南半島後才禁止向日本出口石油。
這很重要,因為這表明在採取嚴厲措施之前,我們願意與日本進行長期合作。只要日本繼續得到美國的石油,它們就可以憑藉自己擁有的資源很好地生存下去。正如我所提到的,這説明了日本的統治力量在當時是多麼熱衷於征服。當時日本仍在與蘇聯進行貿易(至少在某種程度上),我在另一篇文章中説過,日本人因為利用中國作為讓步(同意和平並離開)而錯過了它們已經擁有的巨大勝利,我認為它們本可以與西方保持和平並保持在朝鮮和滿洲的巨大收益。
這就是勝利的問題,它常常會導致一種“勝利病”,這使得精英羣體/人開始認為所有目標都可以通過戰爭實現,因此他們往往會變得過於雄心勃勃。
Andrew James Wright
無背景信息
應該指出的是,在日本偷襲珍珠港之前的近4年半時間裏,中國沒有被征服或被迫投降。事實上,珍珠港事件實際上是日本越來越暴力和希望以絕望的手段結束在中國的戰爭的結果。
日本確實征服了中國的大部分主要城市、鐵路、經濟和工業區,但中國從未投降。因此,日本從未實現其政治或戰略目標,即實現和平並迫使中國成為其附庸國,或停止一場正在慢慢流血和消耗資源的戰爭。
因此,日本繼續加大賭注,試圖脅迫法國、美國、英國甚至蘇聯停止向中國的戰爭努力提供外交和物質支持。1941年初,它與蘇聯簽訂了互不侵犯條約;1940年9月它接管了法屬中南半島北部。日本甚至在1940年的幾個月內中斷了通過緬甸公路運送給中國的補給,直到英國意識到這一點。
但是日本走得太遠了,為了找到攻擊荷蘭和越來越被視為對日本構成威脅的英國人和美國人的潛在基地(如果遭到禁運的話,日本需要石油),它進入了中南半島南部。這最終招致了英國人和美國人的不滿,它們堅持要求日本在中國問題上讓步。但日本沒有,於是珍珠港事件發生了,日本從此註定要失敗,而中國儘管獨自作戰多年,卻遠未被征服。
正如S.C.M.Paine所指出的那樣,珍珠港事件以及日本對在東亞的西方屬地的攻擊被視為日本為尋找資源(尤其是石油)而實施的自給自足的手段,它們希望與英美兩國通過談判早日結束戰爭以便日本能夠繼續實施打敗中國的計劃。因此,對日本來説,太平洋戰爭被認為是一場為了促進其對中國的持續戰爭而迅速展開又迅速結束的事件。
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原文
Grant Mitchell Spork
, Director UAV Drone Surveys at Self-Employment (2010-present),Lives in Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia
The Japanese had conquered moat of China accept for remote inland areas. All coastal ports and main river systems were under Japanese control. The Japanese annexed the entire Korean peninsular, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam. Cambodia, Laos, parts of Burma, Indonesia, the Philippines, Borneo. Starting a war with the USA at Pearl Harbor could be seen as a mistake! The communists under Mao and the Nationalists under Chiang Kai Check fought against the Japanese as separate Guerilla forces. Check was provided military aid by the USA and Britain and attacked Japanese logistics and supply bases. It is possible the Communist forces and Chiang Kai Check with greater military aid and training could have caused Japan to loose control of inland China. The Japanese were largely interested in the wealthy trading ports and cities and their logistics, their mines for raw materials. In South East Asia they were interested in rubber and food stocks, timber. in Borneo they wanted the Dutch Shell oil and the British petroleum assets. For the Allies not to be involved the Japanese would need to stay out of the Philippines, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Borneo and Indonesia which were allied territories or protectorates. Japan also invaded Manchuria, and this was an issue for the Soviet Russians who had lost a naval battle and a war against the Japanese in circa 1905. The USA determined not to sell iron ore, ingots or oil to Japan after their invasion of China and Manchuria. As America at this time was the major source of oil with Borneo being owned by the Dutch and British………………this action cut Japan from this vital energy source. Middle Eastern sources of oil largely came into production after the second world war. China was seen as a deplete3d civilization which could be colonized, and then used as a resources supply for the Japanese industrial military complex. Britain and the Dutch were fighting for their lives in Europe as the Nazi’s attacked France, Belgium and Holland and their mighty navy was unable to respond. The USA were therefore attacked at Pearl Harbor in a move to annex vital oil and raw material supplies and create a Japanese co-prosperity sphere. Once the USA war production began in earnest, Japan would be in trouble militarily. Over 100 US Aircraft carriers were planned to be built, in the end only a few were completed and most did not see active service during the second world war, however the size of the military build up by the USA and the building of the Super Fortress Fleet of high altitude bombers, meant Japan had only a few years to enjoy hegemony, before the USA and it’s allies would become vastly more powerful.