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John Authers

對抗資本主義的被動投資。

攝影師：Stuart Isett/Bloomberg

要直接將約翰·奧瑟斯的通訊發送到您的收件箱，請在此處註冊。

今日要點：

  • 被動投資的扭曲是由資金的新流入引起的。
  • 基準由主動基金的基準化加劇了這一現象。
  • 保持價格發現的方式是通過擴大私人市場，而不是在公共市場中進行更好的主動管理。
  • 比特幣回來了，現在它正試圖進入銀行。
  • 提示：試試一個很棒的播客，講述英國悲慘的一年1974年。

被動侵略

被動投資聽起來無害。它的名字暗示着被 passively 管理的基金實際上並沒有做任何事情。但它越來越被描述為一種破壞者，破壞市場，與資本主義作鬥爭。隨着被動投資在股票市場中佔據了更為主導的地位，這樣的論點變得更加可信。在年初，晨星，最廣泛引用的跟蹤基金管理部門的機構，報告稱美國的多數投資基金首次被 passively 管理。

在這樣的規模下，被動概念開始變得脆弱。打個比方，藍鯨在所有賬户中都是相當和平的動物，但是把它放進游泳池，它就會為其他人制造波浪。

對被動管理的批評已經存在幾十年了。上週，對被動管理的批評達到了新的高潮，對沖基金經理大衞·艾因霍恩，最著名的是他在2008年對雷曼兄弟的成功做空，在彭博採訪中抱怨説，被動管理者已經破壞了市場。他説，被動世界的每個人都依賴其他人為他們做功課，併為股票設定合理的價格。這樣的反對意見並不新鮮，但我收到的反饋量表明人們對此的興趣只增加了；所以我再次回到這個話題。

兩個數學極點

總結我的主要觀點：被動管理由於其較低的費用，隨着時間的推移將為其投資者表現得比大多數主動管理基金更好。隨着時間的推移，股市已經越來越機構化。美聯儲的數據顯示，個人家庭持有的比例從二戰後的90%以上下降到現在的不到33%。因此，75年前所有專業資金管理人都能擊敗指數，因為他們並不多。他們也處於一個擁有大量個人投資者的市場，這些投資者持有股票的原因並不一定是為了擊敗市場基準。現在，算術明顯對主動管理者不利。

這是爭論的一個極端。另一方面，市場不可能完全 passively 管理。如果這樣做，市場將無法運轉，價格發現 — 為不同證券設定合理價格，使資金流向最佳用途的地方 — 將變得不可能。目前，指數基金相信市場對公司的估值，這意味着向已經具有高估值的公司投入更多資金。這有助於市場內泡沫的形成，比如七巨頭科技股的崛起。

這引起了一些反對意見。“如果 passively 的集中化產生了你所聲稱的‘被鎖定在琥珀中’的結果，”一位讀者寫道，“那麼我們不應該看到指數集中度的*增長* — 我們應該看到更靜態的指數權重（為什麼按市場權重交易會*增加*最大公司的權重？在數學上是荒謬的）。這在某種程度上是正確的，但忽略了三十多年來 passively 基金一直在吸納淨流入資金。僅去年，晨星公司表示 passively 美國股票基金吸納了 2440 億美元，而主動基金遭受了 2570 億美元的資金外流。這延續了一個早已確立的趨勢：

每一筆新的資金都會按照最新的市場權重進行投資。如果一些基金經理對英偉達公司感到興奮並推高其價格，那麼 passively 基金也將被迫用其新的資金購買更多的英偉達公司股票，從而推高泡沫。我還通過警告説，如果對指數基金失去信心，這些趨勢可能會逆轉，引起了一些困惑。清楚地説，我並不是指大多數主動基金經理會擊敗指數，而是説隨着資金從 passively 基金中流出，我們可能會預期這些扭曲會逆轉。在每一輪新的銷售以滿足贖回需求時，最大的股票將看到最大的拋售。主動基金經理看到贖回的到來，可能會提前採取規避行動，退出大型市值股。

在這種環境下，被動基金的回報率（扣除費用後）會比中位數主動管理者略高。但如今它們是首選的投資工具，如果人們感到恐慌並試圖離開市場，退出的資金將不成比例地來自較大的股票。大規模的被動資金可能會導致巨大的混亂。

價格發現？

那麼，我們如何保護價格發現？要明確的是，問題不在於市場的整體價值，而在於其中的相對估值。研究機構Research Affiliates的Rob Arnott認為，指數化並不有助於價格發現，但這並不意味着它是反資本主義的：

首先，指數基金對推動價格發現沒有任何作用；這一角色由主動管理者（基本上任何不是指數化的資金）來扮演。如果主動管理者擁有市場的10%，這仍足夠讓價格發現發揮作用。其次，僅僅説指數化是不好的是不夠的；至關重要的是提供一個更優越的選擇，可以在扣除費用和交易成本後為長期投資者贏得勝利。

Arnott的答案通常被標記為 “智能貝塔（Smart Beta）”，或者利用被動技術來降低成本，但將基金與按不同因素加權的指數掛鈎。例如，如果你的ETF基金根據公司的總收入和利潤進行配置，而不是根據它們的市值，你可以使用被動基金來糾正異常情況。

多少活動足夠？攝影師：卡爾·科特/蓋蒂圖片社然而，除此之外，我們何時達到“被動投資的頂峯”呢？阿諾特認為，即使 passively 投資達到了 90%，價格發現仍然可以發揮作用，多年來，指數化的最大倡導者也提出了這一觀點。在這樣的環境中，積極管理者需要做出更多積極和集中的押注，因為他們為其他人設定價格。然而，大多數人將落後於指數。對所謂的積極份額的日益增長——尋找股票選擇與被動配置大不相同的積極基金——旨在推動這一點。

倫敦 Capeview Capital LLP 的 Adrian Cattley 提出了一個更復雜的觀點，即資本主義有辦法糾正公共股權市場價格發現系統的任何失敗。他提醒我們，股權市場並不等同於經濟：

讓我們假設這七個了不起的公司吸引了資本，它們的市盈率繼續上升，像吸血鬼一樣吸乾了市場上其他公司的估值，以至於它們無法在公開市場上融資。到目前為止都很糟糕。但是，如果它們的價格跌至非常低的水平，作為一個私人非指數買家，我可以介入。如果它們沒有辦法為一個新項目融資，但其回報率很有吸引力，那麼不在股權市場上的公司將為其提供資金。這一點是關鍵。在任何地方，賺取投資資本的錢的願望都很強烈，不僅僅是在公共股權市場上。主要是公共股權市場上的人在抱怨這一點。

如果卡特利和他的同事們可以把錢投入到一家英國房地產開發商，並且“因為公開市場已經發揮了作用，使得股本回報率達到25%，那麼我會很高興，”他説。“資本主義很難被消滅。”

如果這聽起來有點達爾文主義，那是因為它確實如此。只投資於公共股權的平均股本基金不會擊敗市場。它是一種恐龍。但是，如果主動管理者決定將他們的技能用於管理私人資產，那麼他們可能會比標普500指數做得更好。事實上，大型捐贈基金和養老基金管理者正在向私人資產配置越來越多的資金。不利的一面是，這樣的管理者為他們的服務收費比指數基金，甚至是傳統的主動管理基金要高得多。

被動投資的總體效果可能會證明，它會讓我們大多數人更便宜地獲得整體市場的回報，同時讓尋找最佳回報變得更加昂貴。想法？

比特幣迴歸

比特幣十多年前由神秘的中本聰發明，至今仍然受到懷疑和樂觀情緒的交織。目前，樂觀主義者再次佔上風。這種數字資產今年已經暴漲了近25%，週四達到了52,749美元，是自2021年以來的最高水平，是一年前的三倍。

是什麼原因？首先要注意的是，這種令人矚目的2024年開局是在證券交易委員會的歷史性批准以及隨後的比特幣現貨基金的推出之後。它們並沒有幫助實現作為傳統金融體系替代品的最初目標，但在20多個交易日之後，成功案例層出不窮。比特幣的漲勢使其市值超過了1萬億美元，這是兩年多以來首次。

期權市場的賭注表明，交易員們的目標價格超過了26個月前的近69,000美元的記錄。他們很可能正在押注所謂的比特幣減半，該減半預計將於4月份進行，旨在限制供應。這應該會支撐價格，因為以往的減半都是如此。

如果有人付出代價，那就是黃金投資者。黃金現貨基金的資金流出已攀升至約20億美元，而自證券交易委員會批准以來，比特幣現貨基金的資金流入幾乎是這個數額的兩倍。然而，監管要求正在發生變化。已經有一個貿易團體向證券交易委員會提出請願，要求調整會計指南，使美國銀行為客户持有數字資產變得更加昂貴。

該團體包括銀行政策協會、美國銀行家協會、證券業協會和金融市場協會，以及金融服務論壇，希望修改指導方針，要求包括銀行在內的上市公司將加密貨幣視為負債計入資產負債表。這使得持有加密貨幣變得更加昂貴，因為銀行必須留出價值相似的資產以防止損失。修訂內容包括在加密貨幣的廣泛範圍內排除某些資產以及豁免受監管的放貸機構免受資產負債表要求的影響。

這將需要另一次大規模的遊説工作，但現金基金的競選提供了一個模板。正如Miller Tabak + Co.的Matt Maley所説：“如果比特幣繼續上漲並變得更加主流，那麼對證券交易委員會的壓力將變得更加強大。如果比特幣變得更加主流，他們如何能夠比其他人更加限制銀行？”

這絕不是中本聰當初設想的。但如果監管機構繼續感到有義務允許加密貨幣成為銀行系統以及證券市場的一部分，那麼比特幣的復興機會將會持續。

—Richard Abbey

再次擔任首相：哈羅德·威爾遜再也不會有這麼好的機會了。攝影師：雷格·蘭開斯特/赫爾頓檔案館/蓋蒂圖片社### 生存貼士

另一個播客推薦。1974年是我八歲的時候，所以我可能並沒有完全理解當時發生的一切，但在那一年，英國可能比戰後其他任何一個大型發達經濟體更接近完全失控。兩次無果的選舉，政府規定的三天工作制，北愛爾蘭的內戰蔓延到英國本土，反覆發生恐怖主義活動，看起來很像一次未遂政變，所有這些都發生在經濟崩潰的時候；那一年，英國經歷了一切。烏干達獨裁者伊迪·阿敏甚至開始向英國提供人道主義援助。

“The Rest Is History”播客本週用三集節目講述了這個故事，你可以在這裏找到：這裏，這裏和這裏。非常迷人和有趣。強烈推薦（感謝彭博觀點同事利亞姆·丹寧向我推薦）。祝你週末愉快。

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想要更多彭博觀點？ OPIN <GO>。或者您可以訂閲我們的每日新聞簡報。