【科技】誰將在電動汽車市場的洗牌中生存下來？_風聞

正文翻譯

The ongoing deceleration in demand for electric vehicles is an early warning signal of a shakeout in the nascent industry, according to Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie, who is also director of Wharton’s Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation. EV leader Tesla is laying off more than a tenth of its global workforce, and other manufacturers like Lucid and Rivian have reported losses. Government subsidies have helped cushion those impacts, and more support by way of higher tariffs on imported EVs is on the way.

沃頓商學院車輛與移動創新項目主任、管理學教授約翰·保羅·麥克達菲表示，電動汽車需求的持續放緩是這一新興行業即將經歷大洗牌的早期預警信號。電動汽車領導廠商特斯拉正在裁減其全球員工超過十分之一，其他製造商如Lucid和Rivian也報告了虧損。政府補貼在一定程度上緩解了這些影響，而通過提高進口電動汽車關税等更多支持措施也即將到來。

“What’s going on with electrification transition and the demand for electric vehicles … is a reset that’s almost like the starting up of a new industry,” MacDuffie said on the Wharton Business Daily radio show that airs on SiriusXM. (Listen to the podcast.) He pointed to predictions of a shakeout and consolidation within China’s EV industry, and said, “I’m sure we’ll see it here [in the U.S.], too.”

麥克達菲在SiriusXM播出的沃頓商學院每日商業電台節目中表示：“電氣化轉型和電動汽車需求的現狀……就像是一種重置，幾乎相當於一個新行業的啓動。” 他提到中國電動汽車行業內的洗牌和整合預測，並表示：“我相信我們也會在美國看到類似的情況。”

For sure, any new industry will see many casualties as it evolves. “One out of 10 is considered a decent success ratio for entrepreneurial ventures of any kind,” especially in industries such as EVs that call for large capital requirements, MacDuffie said.

可以肯定的是，任何新興行業在發展過程中都會出現許多失敗者。麥克達菲説，“對於任何類型的創業企業來説，十分之一的成功率都被認為是不錯的”，尤其是在需要大量資本投入的電動汽車等行業。

Vertical Integration Is Key to Success

垂直整合是成功的關鍵

According to MacDuffie, vertically integrated EV makers like Tesla and China’s BYD can ride out a shakeout because they control large parts of their supply chains. Tesla, for instance, makes EV batteries and has invested in battery storage; it also coped with the recent global semiconductor shortage by redesigning its software to support alternative chips, as a Forbes report pointed out. “You have more control, you can present a more coherent product and a more coherent brand and identity if you control the whole [manufacturing chain],” MacDuffie said.

根據麥克達菲的説法，像特斯拉和中國比亞迪這樣的垂直整合電動汽車製造商可以在行業動盪中倖存下來，因為它們控制着供應鏈的大部分。舉例來説，特斯拉制造電動汽車電池並投資於電池儲能；它還通過重新設計軟件以支持替代芯片，應對了最近的全球半導體短缺問題，正如《福布斯》報告中指出的那樣。麥克達菲説：“如果你控制了整個（製造鏈），你會有更多的控制權，你可以推出更連貫的產品、更連貫的品牌和標識。”

Among the likely EV casualties that MacDuffie pointed to is Fisker, which appears to be on the verge of bankruptcy. But he expected Rivian, another startup that is also facing challenges, to survive, because it has an “appealing product that’s been well received,” which will help it continue to draw investment.

麥克達菲指出，可能成為電動汽車行業犧牲者的公司之一是Fisker，該公司似乎正處於破產的邊緣。但他預計另一個也面臨挑戰的初創公司Rivian將會存活下來，因為它有“備受歡迎的吸引人的產品”，這將有助於它繼續吸引投資。

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Legacy Automakers Have an Advantage

傳統汽車製造商具有優勢

Established automakers with EV products have another advantage over EV startups in that they can ride out the current demand slowdown by shifting to hybrid vehicles, MacDuffie noted. Several legacy automakers such as General Motors, Honda, Toyota, and Ford have taken such a portfolio approach to increase their hybrid offerings.

擁有電動汽車產品的老牌汽車製造商相比電動汽車初創公司還有一個優勢，那就是它們可以通過轉向混合動力汽車來應對當前需求的放緩，麥克達菲表示。幾家傳統汽車製造商如通用汽車、本田、豐田和福特已經採取了這種多元化的策略來增加其混合動力汽車的供應。

Established automakers have another advantage over EV startups. “They already know how to do the design, the build, the supply chain, and the distribution,” MacDuffie continued. They also have the wherewithal to cross-subsidize their forays into new technology such as EVs, he added. “They can keep selling their existing product line and use those profits to cross-subsidize. That advantage is not available to a startup.” Such an advantage is especially useful when technology transitions get complicated or when demand growth slows down, he noted.

老牌汽車製造商相較於電動汽車初創公司還有另一個優勢。“他們已經知道如何進行設計、製造、供應鏈和分銷，”麥達菲繼續説道。他們也有財力通過交叉補貼來支持他們對新技術（如電動汽車）的探索，他補充道。“他們可以繼續銷售現有的產品線，並利用這些利潤進行交叉補貼。這個優勢對於初創公司來説是不存在的。”他指出，當技術轉型變得複雜或需求增長放緩時，這種優勢尤其有用。

The demand slowdown hasn’t deterred new EV startups, especially those based on autonomous vehicle technology. MacDuffie pointed to Amazon subsidiary Zoox, an autonomous electric vehicle firm that is aiming for the robotaxi market. Another well-heeled EV startup is Aurora, an autonomous trucking company with backing from both Amazon and Toyota. “Where there’s a deep-pocketed investor that has a stake in you continuing, then you’re more likely to make it through this period of ferment than if you’re simply relying on the public markets,” MacDuffie said.

需求放緩並沒有阻止新的電動汽車初創企業，特別是那些基於自動駕駛技術的初創公司。麥克達菲指出，亞馬遜子公司Zoox是一家面向機器人出租車市場的自動駕駛電動汽車公司。另一家資金雄厚的電動汽車初創企業是Aurora，這是一家自動駕駛卡車公司，得到了亞馬遜和豐田的支持。麥克達菲表示，“如果有一個財力雄厚的投資者支持你繼續前行，那麼你比單純依賴公開市場更有可能度過這個動盪時期。”

Building Supply Chains from Scratch

從零開始建立供應鏈

Unlike with consumer electronics where an Apple could tap into an existing supply chain, the EV industry didn’t have “a bunch of contract manufacturing capacity sitting around just waiting for a great car design” that somebody comes up with, MacDuffie noted. The EV industry has faced hurdles in building out that supply chain from scratch. It has been hard for EV companies to obtain debt financing or venture capital financing because of the long wait before they can roll out their products and make profits, he explained.

麥克達菲指出，與蘋果可以利用現有供應鏈的消費電子產品不同，電動汽車行業沒有“一堆合同製造能力，只是坐在那裏等待一個偉大的汽車設計”。電動汽車行業在從零開始建立供應鏈方面遇到了困難。他解釋説，由於在推出產品並實現盈利之前需要長時間等待，電動汽車公司很難獲得債務融資或風險資本融資。

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As a consequence, companies like Tesla and Rivian have had to rely on the public capital markets to finance those investments, but that has made them particularly sensitive to the expectations of equity investors, MacDuffie noted. “Investors and everyone watching the stock market are hanging on every announcement about your sales. Anytime you don’t meet a sales projection, the stock tanks.” Not surprisingly, the drop in demand for EVs has hurt the stock prices of Tesla, Rivian and Nio.

因此，特斯拉和Rivian等公司不得不依賴公共資本市場來為這些投資提供資金，但這也使它們對股權投資者的期望特別敏感。“投資者和所有關注股市的人都緊盯着你關於銷售的每一個公告。任何時候你沒有達到銷售預期，股票就會暴跌。” 不出所料，電動汽車需求的下降已經影響到了特斯拉、Rivian和蔚來的股價。

Policy Support Vital for EV Makers

政策支持對電動汽車製造商至關重要

Government support has been crucial for the EV industry in these trying times. “If there were not government subsidies and priorities to advance the electrification transition, then I don’t think you would see all of the world’s automakers making big strategic bets on electrification, and you wouldn’t see as many startups either,” MacDuffie said. “They have the confidence that this transition will happen with so much government push behind it.”

在這個艱難時期，政府的支持對電動汽車行業至關重要。麥克達菲稱：“如果沒有政府的補貼和推進電氣化轉型的優先政策，我認為你不會看到所有世界汽車製造商在電氣化上做出重大戰略押注，也不會看到那麼多初創企業。他們有信心，在政府的大力推動下，這一轉型將會實現。”

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At the same time, EV makers in the U.S. face a degree of policy uncertainty unlike their counterparts in China. “In the U.S., if there’s a change in political party, and a change in who’s in the White House, then we may see policy swings much more,” he said. “It makes American EV companies subject to more volatility and more risk because, what if all the subsidies are taken away all of a sudden in a few years?”

與此同時，與中國同行不同，美國的電動汽車製造商面臨着一定程度的政策不確定性。“在美國，如果政黨發生變化，白宮的領導人也會發生變化，那麼我們可能會看到更大的政策波動，這使得美國的電動汽車公司面臨更多的波動性和風險，因為如果幾年後所有的補貼突然取消怎麼辦？”

On a recent trip to Germany, MacDuffie found that EV makers there are confident that their policymakers are committed to supporting the electrification of transportation; they are therefore surer of making their investments.

在最近一次德國之行中，麥克達菲發現當地的電動汽車製造商對政策制定者致力於支持交通電氣化充滿信心；因此，他們對投資更加確定。

MacDuffie said the impending consolidation among EV makers is a familiar theme for the auto industry. He recalled that after the birth of the auto industry in the early 1900s, there were hundreds of auto companies, but they consolidated into five or six companies in the 1920s and 1930s, and eventually into the Big Three of General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler (now part of Stellantis).

電動汽車製造商即將到來的整合是汽車行業的一個熟悉主題。他回憶説，在20世紀初汽車行業誕生後，有數百家汽車公司，但在20世紀20年代和30年代整合成了五六家公司，最終形成了通用汽車、福特和克萊斯勒（現在屬於Stellantis）的三大巨頭。

As the EV industry braces for a shakeout, financial staying power will make the difference. “Anybody who succeeds in persuading the various sources of capital to come together, as Elon Musk did very well from lots of sources [for Tesla], you have more chance to survive,” he continued. “But any time you lose one of those incoming streams of capital, boy, you’re much more on the edge.”

隨着電動汽車行業準備迎接一場洗牌，財務持久力將成為關鍵。“任何成功説服各種資本來源聚集在一起的人，就像埃隆·馬斯克為特斯拉所做的那樣，你就更有可能生存下來，”他繼續説道。“但只要你失去其中一個資本流入渠道，你就會更加岌岌可危。”