【社會】印度經濟每年增長超過 7%為什麼印度人對未來如此悲觀？_風聞

​【來源龍騰網】

正文原創翻譯：

India economy is growing over 7% every year. Why are Indians so pessimistic about the future?

印度經濟每年增長超過 7%。為什麼印度人對未來如此悲觀？

原創翻譯：龍騰網 https://www.ltaaa.cn 轉載請註明出處

I am Brazilian and the last time we consistently were growing over 7% was in the early 1970s. We celebrate just not being in a recession.

India has been growing ridiculously fast consistently like China was in the 90s and 2000s. India is also has way better relations diplomatically world wide and likely will never have to deal with trade wars like China has. I predict that India will be a middle income country in 10 years or so.

But when I read comments on this sub it seems like most Indians are very pessimistic about the future, why is that?

我是巴西人，我們上一次持續增長超過 7% 還是在 20 世紀 70 年代初。我們只要沒有陷入衰退就值得慶賀了。

印度的持續增長速度快得離譜，就像中國在上世紀 90 年代和 2000 年代一樣。印度的外交關係在世界範圍內也要好得多，而且很可能永遠都不用像中國那樣應對貿易戰。我預測，印度將在 10 年左右成為中等收入國家。

但當我讀到這個板塊上的評論時，似乎大多數印度人對未來都非常悲觀，這是為什麼呢？

評論翻譯

bakait_launda

Most of our growth is in Service sector which does not employ as many folks as compared to other sectors. So as our young population increases, there is a mismatch in our job market.

Lack of manufacturing sector leaves a huge skill mismatch. The semi skilled and unskilled are not the getting the jobs they want.

Even thought govt is promoting entrepreneurship (especially in MSME sectors), it difficult for small firms to compete with big conglomerates.

7% growth is good, but the effects are not trickling down (Cantillon effect) and the economic wounds of Covid have not healed.

Add to this, the usual corruption, Political culture & Climate change induced disasters. Basically we are walking on a tightrope. The Industry, Government and people have to balance it so that growth becomes more equitable.

我們大部分的增長來自服務行業，而與其他行業相比，服務行業並沒有僱傭那麼多員工。因此，隨着年輕人口的增加，我們的就業市場出現了不匹配。

製造業的缺乏導致了巨大的技能不匹配。半熟練和非熟練工人沒有獲得他們想要的工作。儘管政府在推動創業（特別是在中小企業領域），但小公司很難與大型企業競爭。

7%的增長是好的，但其效果並沒有向下滲透（坎蒂隆效應），而且新冠疫情帶來的經濟創傷尚未癒合。再加上常見的腐敗、政治文化和氣候變化引發的災難。基本上，我們正走在一根繩索上。工業、政府和人民必須平衡，以使增長變得更加公平。

zenFyre1

Yes, Indian economy is very skewed and not balanced well. The lack of well paying, high skill blue collar jobs is a real economic disaster. Service sector is growing well due to connections with the international economy.

是的，印度經濟非常不平衡。缺乏高薪、高技能的藍領工作是一場真正的經濟災難。而由於與國際經濟的聯繫，服務業發展良好。

PlaceOk2031

We aren’t utilising our young Labour force, China was ready when the population boom happened, they knew that large scale manufacturing is the way to go. We on the other hand are busy in doing cash handouts. It is anyways too late now we should have thought about this 20 years ago.

我們沒有充分利用我們的年輕勞動力，中國在人口激增時就做好了準備，他們知道大規模製造才是王道。而我們卻忙於派發現金。無論如何，現在為時已晚，我們早在 20 年前就應該想到這一點。

原創翻譯：龍騰網 https://www.ltaaa.cn 轉載請註明出處

lurid_dream

China could do that given their 1 party system. Political parties in India keep fighting to stay in power and have no interest in uplifting the nation.

中國可以做到這一點，因為他們實行的是一黨制。印度的政黨一直在為保住權力而鬥爭，對提升國家利益毫無興趣。

EasyRider_Suraj

Chinese economy is a result of cold war geopolitics. Sino Soviet spilit made US becoming allied with China and helped them get all of the manufacturing shifted from their puppets like Japan and Korea.

中國經濟是冷戰地緣政治的結果。中蘇分裂使美國與中國結盟，並幫助他們將所有制造業從日本和韓國等傀儡手中轉移到中國。

thecreativesboy

Very well put. Also to add, India is at the right time to have a demographic dividend to pay off. India needs at least 8-9% yearly growth minimum otherwise it will get old before getting rich and will be trapped in middle income countries like Thailand and Malaysia.

説得好。另外，我還要補充一點，印度正處於人口紅利期。印度至少需要 8-9% 的年增長率，否則就會未富先老，淪為泰國和馬來西亞這樣的中等收入國家。

Top-Faithlessness785

Tho the overall growth is 7%(just consuming growth), the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer…as much as it’s now ‘worse than the colonial era’ as many says.

雖然總體增長率為 7%（只是消費增長），但富人越來越富，窮人越來越窮……正如許多人所説，現在的情況“比殖民時代還糟糕”。

liberalparadigm

Everyone is getting richer. Wealth compounds. Even the poor accumulate farmland, have houses in villages, and have access to free/subsidized food.

每個人都越來越富。財富不斷累積。即使是窮人也會積累農田，在村莊裏擁有房屋，並獲得免費/補貼食品。

vsa467

A metric that measures this is the Gini index. Feel free to check that out yourself for the UK and India.

Firstly, stop comparing pre-independent India with now. That’s just comparing us to absolute garbage of times. The quality of life of most humans has increased over time. But the rich reap many more benefits from opportunities and economic growth than the poor.

Poverty has always been a problem in India, but it does not disappear even when the country experiences peak economic growth and development.

基尼係數是衡量這一現象的指標。你可以自行查看英國和印度的基尼指數。

首先，不要再拿獨立前的印度與現在相比了。這只是將我們與絕對垃圾的時代相比較。隨着時間的推移，大多數人的生活質量都在提高。但富人從機遇和經濟增長中獲得的好處要比窮人多得多。

在印度，貧困一直是個問題，但即使國家經濟增長和發展達到頂峯，貧困也不會消失。

原創翻譯：龍騰網 https://www.ltaaa.cn 轉載請註明出處

BreadfruitRich2175

The per capita income of middle class, salary class and poor is stagnant. Govt is squeezing more taxes from salary class but rich politicians, bureaucrats and elite business tycoons growing 100% YOY

中產階級、工薪階層和窮人的人均收入停滯不前。政府從工薪階層榨取更多税收，但富裕的政客、官僚和商界精英卻年年翻倍增長

Eastern_Can_1802

Because it’s the rich elites lining their pockets and starving everyone below them. The economy isn’t really growing just rich people’s pockets.

因為只有有錢的精英們賺得盆滿缽滿，餓死了他們下面的所有人。經濟並沒有真正增長，增長的只是富人的口袋。

broken_soul535

There are many reasons. I’ll blame the most in the media.

Lots of Indians are only educated with a degree. They actually lack skills. And not everyone is a hard-worker. I’d blame society for it. Older folks tell kids that after school and college there isn’t a need to study and work as hard.

原因有很多。我把大部分原因歸咎於媒體。

很多印度人只受過學位教育。他們實際上缺乏技能。而且並不是每個人都勤奮工作。我認為這應該歸咎於社會。老人們告訴孩子們，上完中小學和大學後就不需要再努力學習和工作了。

andrewgarfield07

Jobless growth, excessive quotas in jobs & admissions,real inflation much higher than official data, infrastructure improvement isn’t as fast as expected,cities are still dirty,no sidewalks, no civic sense,public transport is overburdened etc etc. Real estate is not even affordable to top 5%. Growth is only for those who want to invest.

失業在增長、工作和招生的固定配額卻越來越多、實際通貨膨脹遠高於官方數據、基礎設施改善速度不如預期、城市依然骯髒、沒有人行道、缺乏公民意識、公共交通超負荷等。房地產連前5%的人都買不起。增長僅對那些想要投資的人有利。

Big-Bite-4576

only the rich are growing, income inequality is growing, basically 1% are growing richer more than the billionaires of USA while bottom 70% of the people are living a sub-saharan lifestyle, suffering from unimaginable poverty

只有富人在增長，收入不平等在加劇，基本上前 1% 的人比美國的億萬富翁還要富有，而 70% 的底層人民卻過着撒哈拉以南的生活，遭受着難以想象的貧困。

ozneoknarf

OP

Damn I just searched the income inequality in India. Top 1% has 22% of all income, in Brazil it’s 13% and I though that was a lot. What I don’t understand is with so much inequality why is crime rates in India so low when compared to other third world countries? I felt way safer in poor areas in India than in Brazil.

艹，我剛剛搜索了印度的收入不平等情況。收入最高的 1%佔總收入的 22%，巴西是 13%，而我之前已經覺得這很多了。我不明白的是，既然存在如此嚴重的不平等，為什麼印度的犯罪率與其他第三世界國家相比如此之低？在印度的貧困地區，我感覺比在巴西更安全。