李世默對話全球南方國家政治家:起來,不願做“美元奴隸”的人們-李世默、布薩尼·恩格卡維尼、努魯伊莎·安瓦爾
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2024年5月16日,應邀訪華的馬來西亞總理安瓦爾長女、人民公正黨副主席努魯伊莎·安瓦爾,南非國家行政學院院長布薩尼·恩卡韋尼,與北京對話聯合創始人、風險投資家李世默,就中國與東盟協同發展、全球南方國家尋找合作共同基礎、跨國企業履行國際和社會責任、全球南方國家攜手製定新的全球化願景等展開對話。

對話實錄整理如下:
**李世默:**歡迎來到北京對話。今天我們請來了一位特殊的嘉賓,我的朋友、來自馬來西亞的努魯依莎和我的老朋友、來自南非的布薩尼。
我們生活在一個動盪的時代,我們經歷了30年的全球化,而在過去的幾年裏,大約5年間,一切都在倒退,無論是經濟上、政治上還是軍事上:軍事衝突、經濟戰爭、供應鏈問題。在我看來,冷戰結束後開始的整個全球化模式正陷入困境,已經停滯。與此同時,我們還看到了另一個趨勢,那就是全球南方國家的迅速崛起,它們作為集體已經成為世界舞台上的重要角色。
最近,全球南方國家之間的貿易額首次超過了與全球北方國家的貿易額。我們約佔全球GDP增長的60%至65%。我們既包括非洲最貧窮的國家,也有中東最富裕的國家、軍事強國,東盟也是全球南方國家中的重要一員。我們的成員也將進一步擴大,包括沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、阿拉伯聯合酋長國等等。
您如何看待全球南方國家,尤其是馬來西亞發揮的作用?馬來西亞是東盟最有影響力的國家之一,是東盟的領導者,與印度尼西亞平分秋色。您如何看待馬來西亞的角色和東盟在這一全球轉型中的角色?
**努魯依莎:**謝謝李世默和布薩尼。很高興來到這裏,不僅因為主辦方是北京對話,更重要的是這次的對話主題。我認為我們所有努力都必須對標未來的挑戰。當下,三年來的新冠疫情確實打亂了所有人的步伐,馬來西亞也不例外。我認為這也是應該的,不然我們不知何時才能認識到系統性的不平等現象,認清全球北方的偏見。
這讓我想起了我和李世默第一次見面的情景;很多人可能不知道,我們是在馬來西亞主權財富基金“國庫控股”的“大趨勢論壇”上見面的,李世默應邀做了主旨演講。他首先提到的就是人民公正黨主席、我的父親安瓦爾·易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)在27年前寫的《亞洲復興》一書。當年我17歲,現在40多歲,這本書勾畫了一種願景,即亞洲復興到可以與全球北方國家相媲美的程度。
但現在,通過金磚五國,通過合作,通過南非、巴西、中國等國所做的決定,我們看到願景的具體落實,這正是我們在做的事情。有願景和理論基礎固然很重要,但馬來西亞也願意做實事並提前規劃。當我們考慮金磚國家和增長潛力時候,美西方國家暴露出了明顯的虛偽,我認為,如果您説美西方國家已經為下個十年甚至更長時間提前做好了規劃的話,我一定會反駁您。我們應該規劃好,我們應該如何融入供應鏈聯繫,讓人們過上更好的生活。
**李世默:**我認為你談到了其中的兩個重要方面。我是你父親這本書最早的讀者之一。我們當時是大學生或剛從大學畢業。在上世紀90年代,“歷史終結論”盛行,我們似乎都將成為路易斯安那人或希望成為路易斯安那人。當時,我們都有點不知所措;然後我的同學説,嘿,有一個馬來西亞人寫了《亞洲復興》這本書。從某種程度上來説,這本書其實是超前的,不過我覺得你説的思想基礎很有意思,即對於全球南方國家這樣多元的國家組合來説,什麼才是全球南方國家的思想框架?如何找到能將我們團結起來的共同點?

我們非常多元化。首先,在思想層面上,是否有能夠將我們團結起來的思想敍事?其次,在實操層面上,我們全球南方國家之間的貿易額已超過與全球北方國家的貿易往來,但我們仍在使用美元作為貨幣,而且我們在半導體、技術和金融體系等許多方面仍依賴於全球北方國家。我記得盧拉總統去年在上海的時候,我當時在觀眾席上,他説的最重要的一句話是:每天晚上他都會問自己,我們為什麼要使用美元?
這是令人難以置信的。他當時在新開發銀行發言。那麼,我們可以做哪些實際的事情來擺脱當前局面,掌握自己的命運呢?
**布薩尼:**在過去的幾周裏,我學到了兩個新概念。一個是“全天候關係”。我看到習主席上週在歐洲訪問時,在他訪問的最後一個國家,所締結的夥伴關係被稱為“全天候戰略伙伴關係”。我認為,在管理全球南方國家事務的過程中,我們需要這種全天候的關係,因為全天候的關係將使我們首先處理我們之間的矛盾,因為確實存在矛盾,這是可以理解的。
其次,這種關係將使我們能夠優先處理對我們全球南方國家來説最重要的問題,全球南方應該關注的問題。這意味着我們可以在諸如巴勒斯坦問題等重要問題上保證團結一致。這意味着我們可以在貿易問題上團結一致,我們可以在如何扭轉某些國家企圖通過硬實力來破壞世界貿易組織等多邊機構的趨勢上團結一致。
我最近學到的第二個概念是“全球北方”、“全球南方”和“全球東方”,而中國實際上是所謂的“全球東方”的一部分。作為全球南方國家,若想產生團結,建立全天候的、目標驅動的關係,我們能做的最實際的事情之一,就是應對這些孤立全球南方任何成員或分裂全球南方的企圖,這也是“全球東方”概念出現的原因。
最根本的是,南非自1994年建國以來,作為一個民主國家已有30年曆史。在南非過去30年所做的一切中,我們從馬來西亞吸取了很多經驗教訓,我們實施了提高社會公平等許多其他措施,我們通過學習中國經驗實現了很多目標。我們的一個優勢是,我們在1994年獲得了自由,當時馬來西亞、中國等許多國家已經在改革方面做了不少努力,我們建設“後種族隔離”社會的實踐都是基於這些經驗。馬來西亞、中國和其他全球南方國家面臨的最大任務是,切實支持其他全球南方國家建立自己的動態能力,讓這些國家有能力處理貿易、經濟建設和機構建設等問題,這些問題也是許多南方國家面臨的部分挑戰。
上世紀為爭取南非自由、結束種族隔離制度的抗議示威運動
**李世默:**加沙局勢可能是一個很好的多稜鏡,我們可以通過你所説的思想、道德基礎來看待之。我們發現,全球南方國家和南非持幾乎處於前所未有的統一立場。
**努魯依莎:**你們真的是先行者。
**李世默:**貴國總理也是最敢於直言不諱的人之一。貴國總理在全世界説的事情在20年前是難以想象的。無時無刻,只要有機會,他就會毫不掩飾地站在台前發表道德聲明。這讓全球南方國家耳目一新。習近平主席常談建設一個新的、公正的世界。這非常有趣、別開生面。這是否是全球南方國家的嶄新面貌呢,未來將如何?
**努魯依莎:**尤其是布薩尼在這裏,我想説的是,馬來西亞一開始就支持曼德拉,到今天,我們可以把以前的創傷、苦難轉化為美好的東西,你不應該墮落為你曾對抗的怪物。我們不僅要對抗惡霸,還要敢於説實話。有時我認為,當今霸主將道德準則拋之腦後,這更應堅定我們確立一套明確道德準則的決心。
其中一個道德準則是,對濫用權力的現象發聲,特別當種族滅絕襲擊發生時。布薩尼提到了多邊機構,其中的一票否決權扼殺了我們維護和平的能力,還存在流氓國家可以完全忽略一切反制的情況。規則應該平等適用所有國家,不論這個國家的強弱大小。

在戰火廢墟中玩耍的巴勒斯坦兒童
**李世默:**誰才是真正的流氓國家?
**努魯依莎:**對啊!這讓人非常難過,因為這最終會讓世界變得更不安全、更危險,到時候能怪誰呢?所以,回到全球南方如何利用這一時刻,我想説的是,我們發聲不僅是因為正義,也是為了維護世界秩序,維護法治、毫不猶豫地站出來。
第二,回到實踐問題,因為歸根結底,我們也要確保關於貿易鏈、供應鏈等中國在建立縱向和橫向網絡方面的成功經驗,發展中國家仍可以學習和借鑑部分經驗。
我在這裏引用李根和張夏準的觀點,因為在經濟追趕方面,我們也不能一步步地照搬西方的模式,因為這種模式通常有非常嚴格的知識產權制度,這會讓全球南方苦苦掙扎的國家更加困難了。新冠疫苗問題也是如此,對吧。我不用細細舉例,重點是,精神、法治、思想基礎和實用性,我們可以更好地包裝這些東西,深化和效仿這些東西。
**李世默:**因此,我們再次追溯我們敍事的兩個層面。一是也許我們正在經歷一場全球南方的集體道德覺醒。我們能用此實現目標嗎?我們都應該思考這個問題。你回到馬來西亞,你回到南非,我們需要發展思想,傳播思想、組織人民,我們能夠共同推進,使之成為即提到的覺醒。然後在實踐層面上,就像你説的,對我影響很大的一本書是 15-20 年前劍橋大學的一位經濟學家張夏準寫的《踢開梯子》。

他們實現發展後想踢開梯子,我們現在也正在試圖踢開梯子。因此,中國人非常幸運,通過努力和一點運氣,我們緊緊抓住了梯子,從而往上爬。我認為,他們想踢開梯子為時已晚。他們現在在死馬當活馬醫。
**努魯依莎:**美國201條款就是例子。
**李世默:**我們現在闖入堡壘了,但僅此是不夠的。我們必須把全球南方的其他國家也帶到那裏,只有這樣,我們才能持續待在堡壘中。我們有不同的理念、不同的道德準則、不同的政治信條。我們經歷了幾十年的全球化,現在,我們正在經歷一個全球北方國家推動的去全球化時代,因為他們想踢開梯子。現在他們覺得全球化有損他們的利益,所以不想繼續全球化進程,他們之前已經賺到錢了,但我認為已經有點為時已晚。我們要做的是度過這個去全球化階段,並嘗試重新全球化。重新全球化的世界將是一個不同的全球化世界,它將是一個更具包容性的全球化世界。因此,我們一直在討論中國如何與全球南方合作,與東盟合作,與金磚國家合作,也許還有“一帶一路”沿線的基礎設施建設和製造業發展。
因此,中國的技術道路與西方完全不同,西方建立技術然後坐等收租,利用技術剝削世界其他國家。過去十幾二十年來,隨着中國技術的進步,我們看到了完全不同的情況。當中國人發明技術時,我們互相競爭,把價格壓得很低。對於我這樣的投資者來説,這有時會讓人抓狂,但現狀就是如此。中國人的做事方式不一樣,每當中國人發明某種東西,世界上其他國家的成本也會被打下來;打個比方,如果換成是美國人,那麼電動汽車的售價就會比奔馳貴,他們就是這樣做的:他們可以以90%的毛利率銷售阿司匹林50年。但如果中國發明一種藥物,5年間這種藥物就會變得幾乎免費。

進軍印尼市場的比亞迪汽車
**努魯依莎:**你真是説出了很多人內心所想卻不會説出口的話。
**李世默:**因此,我們現在有可能走向不同類型的全球化;如果我們能繼續這樣走下去,就像我説的那樣,我們沿着梯子向上攀登,我們發明出中國技術,然後由世界生產、面向全球市場。我們如何在供應鏈上共同實現這個願景?
**布薩尼:**讓我舉一個實際的例子:我明天將在觀察者網發佈一篇文章,我提出了全球南方國家必須就“金伯利進程2.0”達成一致的建議。看過《血鑽》這部電影的人一定記得,鑽石貿易是如何給許多生產鑽石的國家,尤其是非洲國家,帶來災難的。

金伯利進程以南非發現鑽石的地方命名。它成為了一個對話過程,最終制定了一套全球通用的規則,每個從事鑽石貿易或銷售的人都必須遵守這一規則;通過引入金伯利進程,我們看到利比里亞等國的衝突狀況得到了化解,因為每一顆在全球銷售的鑽石都必須有明確的出處。
現在,在非洲許多國家,也可能在亞洲和拉丁美洲,將要發生的大沖突是圍繞着關鍵礦產。這些是綠色革命所需的關鍵礦產,其中包括電動汽車的生產。我認為我們需要為這些關鍵礦產製定“金伯利進程2.0”。這樣做可以扭轉一些潛在衝突,例如歐盟在剛果的所作所為。由於歐美想與中國競爭,他們在非洲許多生產關鍵礦物的國家的做法,正在醖釀衝突。
其次,這意味着通過你所説的全球價值鏈,擁有關鍵礦產的國家可以利用這些礦產實現工業化,這意味着即使梯子被踢開,他們也可以實現一些發展,他們不必等待和經歷每一步的追趕。非洲中部等地的國家可以開採這些關鍵礦產,進行加工,然後再運到中國,在中國生產電動汽車和其他各種產品。中國按照以下方法做的話,就會成為全球南方工業化進程中的最大貢獻:設立一種機制,規定我們將購買這些關鍵礦產,但是你們需要在這些礦產運抵中國之前對其進行選礦,將對這些礦產負責。此類和平開採也會讓非洲實現某種形式的工業化,我想這將徹底震撼美國,因為此前從未發生過。
**李世默:**實際上,我認為我們正處於一個關鍵時刻。我們擁有巨大的機遇,如果我們能將中國巨大的工業產能與全球南方的資源和市場結合起來,我們就能在我所説的“小院”之外形成一個新的全球化世界,我們是世界,他們是“小院”。法裏德·扎卡里亞(Fareed Zakaria)談到了一邊是西方,一邊是其他國家,以及後者的崛起,我想掉個頭説,應該是一邊是世界,一邊是西方;我們是世界,他們是西方。因此,有很多事情要做。東盟能否成為更積極的參與者?
**努魯依莎:**我們還必須認識到,東盟不同國家之間存在社會發展差異,經濟發展水平也不盡相同,但我們可以確保採用的模式是因地制宜的。
我喜歡布薩尼提到的金伯利進程,馬來西亞早在1974年就成立了自己的石油和天然氣下游產業開發公司,也就是我們自己的國家石油公司。這很重要,因為如果我們沒有這樣做,局勢就會很困難。想象一下現在的稀土、關鍵礦產,你們如何才能發展這種產能?不僅靠銷售原材料,還要確保能夠利用下游產業。首先需要人才儲備,這需要時間,需要大量的政治決心,需要耐心,還需要一種不只放眼短期利益的心態。我認為我們談得越多,各方就越能理解,自己應該做的也是弄清楚各自的國家,在未來十年裏,將如何提高產業。
馬來西亞也引入了其他機制,如強制或自願許可的發放和使用。疫苗和治療是非常昂貴的。國際大藥廠強加荒謬的價格,政府負擔不起治療的費用,我們眼睜睜看着人們死亡。
因此,馬來西亞衞生部與被忽視疾病藥物組織(DNDI)合作,成功地應對了這個難題,從而獲得了人們能夠負擔得起的丙型肝炎藥物,挽救了數萬人的生命。
因此,再次強調,無論是稀有礦產、關鍵礦產,還是人們急需的藥品等簡單的東西,都可以做到(爭取發展中國家利益),都應該做到,各方都應就此達成共識。因為我們知道西方企業會怎麼做,當他們無法向馬來西亞市場銷售時,他們就會去敲越南的門;我們必須團結起來。我們必須真正説服東盟的每個國家。
**李世默:**全球南方國家的集體議價。如果我們有政治意願,我們可以在許多方面做到這一點。布薩尼,南非情況怎麼樣?你們可是這方面的先行者。
**布薩尼:**重要的是,在這些對話中,我們認識到矛盾,每個國家都有自己的國家發展矛盾、政權矛盾和全球矛盾。
最近,許多南非人都在説,你們應該解決國內的貧困問題,而不是訴諸國際法庭,擔心其他國家發生的事情等等。
但南非政府清楚地認識到,國家發展及其追求決不能抵消其他責任,例如追求和平與正義,我們南非一直在這樣做。我們很高興許多其他國家與南非攜手合作。曼德拉所説的非常重要,即我們需要在全球秩序中展現人性的一面,展現新的一面。所以這也是南非的目標。
我們也十分慶幸,對於我們所經歷的所有挑戰,如過去30年在國家建設中吸取的教訓,都可以參考其他國家的經驗。例如,我們有一個國家計劃委員會。國家計劃委員會參考了中國和馬來西亞的相應部委。我正在與張夏準合作,他將於7月進入韓國內閣,他將直接參與相關討論。
我們非常認同,首先必須處理好貧困、不平等和結構改革的國家優先問題。作為全球南方國家集體的一員,我們必須持續履行追求正義和發展的義務。這就是我們與中國、馬來西亞和許多其他國家相處的態度。
順便説一下,許多人會在電視上看到,在美國國會,幾乎每隔兩週就有人提出南非必須被孤立。這就是我們南非正在經歷的事情,因為有遊説團體針對南非就中東問題的立場,聲稱必須孤立我們。但我們的立場很重要,我們是合作伙伴。我認為每一場革命都需要有人來支持。在這種情況下,全球南方的每一場革命都需要思想資本,需要我們互相的支持,需要我們建立持久的制度支持。在國家動態能力方面更領先的亞洲國家,在建立人與人關係時,需要支持其他國家建立動態能力,尤其是小國。
所以,當這些國家來和中國談判一帶一路合約的時候,會受到西方媒體的批評。小國簽署合同時需要理解合同的條款,並相信這份合同會在最大程度上符合國家利益。但在某些情況下,西方媒體濫用個別例子,認為一些小國迫切希望簽署協議,想要橋樑、軌道和道路等等,認為早期合同在這一層面存在問題。
但如果我們支持全球南方的提高動態能力,我們就能確信,當一帶一路朋友圈擴大時,“合同偏袒中國”的指責是可以得到解決的。基礎設施建成後,也需要投入使用。當中國大型國企離開後,這筆資產需要相應維護,所以必須考慮到可持續性,因此建立動態國家能力必須成為人文交流的重要組成部分。

**努魯依莎:**我想補充一點,這是一個非常重要的因素,因為第一步總是偉大的宣言,就像我之前提到的丙型肝炎藥物問題,但第二步該怎麼做,如何確保這是可持續的?當你決定這麼做的時候,你需要考慮到所有市場。因此,深化投資和後續支持,以確保項目的可持續性,就是我們需要做的事情。這需要我們互相支持,這很有挑戰性,但也回到了關聯性這個大問題上。馬來西亞也不能倖免於遭到各種威脅。
李世默: 問題的關鍵是,他們開始這樣做了之後,我們該如何應對,我們是否在集體應對?
我認為這一點非常重要,中國現在已經成為很多國家的主要經濟參與者,這是一個新現象。現在中國對全球南方國家的貸款總額超過了世貿等所有西方機構和西方富國的總和。
這是巨大的一筆錢,許多中國企業在走出去。我認為我們實際上應該為中國和這些國家之間的經濟活動制定一套經濟行為準則,大家達成共識,我們如何在可持續的基礎上相互受益。這是一個新現象,10到15年前,中國公司去緬甸的時候,都存在很多問題,但後來得到解決了,現在狀態好多了。所以我們在學習,我認為這是雙向的學習,這是我們應該做的另一項任務。我認為中國應該與金磚、東盟等全球南方機構坐下來談談,找出能夠規範中國企業在這些國家的經濟活動的框架。
**努魯依莎:**反之亦然。
**李世默:**沒錯。
**布薩尼:**沒錯。重要的是,我們也要對此持開放態度。從我在非洲多國的觀察,看到中國公司在非洲的投資類型的演變。現在我們正在與一流的中國國有企業和一流的私營企業互動。15年前,我們只是與中國的鄉鎮企業互動。
**李世默:**有些“卷錢就走”的企業。
**布薩尼:**現在情況已經改善了,因為我們現在與一流企業互動,他們受到政府的嚴格監督。因此,15年前的挑戰現在已經緩解了,因為我們正在與最大的國有企業、最大的私營企業進行互動,這些企業受到中國政府的嚴格監管。我認為我們正在為研究國際關係的學者開闢一個新的理念,也許我們應該探索一種我們稱之為行為準則的東西,這可能就會瓦解一些西方國際資本的勢力。
**李世默:**這其中也有道德角度。尤其在過去的兩三百年間,西方公司在非洲的經濟活動幾乎都是違法的。我曾去過加納,我喜歡深入參觀當地的學校。加納有豐富的金礦,但當地人什麼也沒有得到,全由英國和歐洲公司在撈錢。他們賄賂官員,拿走黃金。加納人在這片土地上住了上千年,卻什麼都沒拿到。中國不應該也不會重蹈覆轍。所以我們需要制定行為準則。
**努魯依莎:**我讀的那本書裏描述的就像是經濟殺手的自傳。
**李世默:**我們有一大堆事要做。
**努魯依莎:**確實,但至少我們知道我們需要做什麼。這是一個好的開始。
**李世默:**我們全球南方國家需要團結起來,勾畫讓世界重新全球化的願景。我們想要一個什麼樣的世界?我們談論世界正義,經濟發展,共同發展,為我們的人民帶來福祉。那麼應該採取什麼樣的行為準則呢?所有這些問題都有待我們解決。所以我們需要明確一個願景:我們想要一個什麼樣的世界?
**努魯依莎:**這也很令人興奮,對吧?尤其是因為,當前這一刻由我們一手來設計和勾畫。我認為光是提到行為準則就讓人充滿希望,它應該給年輕人帶來希望,全球南方的參與是更為無私的。
李世默: 完全正確!您的組織(南方中心)應該領導這一進程。
**李月芬:**是的,我們已經非常積極地在做這些事了。
**努魯依莎:**他們會説我早就告訴過你了。
**李世默:**好的,我們時間到了。讓我用30秒總結一下。這是一次很棒的討論,我將今天討論的內容總結為四點:第一,思想基礎。我們能否為全球南方國家發展提供一個道德敍事,一個我們全球南方想要的共同願景,一個正義的世界秩序,我們需要思考這個問題。第二,共同的經濟發展。我們如何構建新的經濟發展架構,囊括所有的變化、去全球化、重啓全球化、供應鏈,以及中國經濟的變化和生產轉移?這個新的架構將如何幫助我們所有人發展,幫助我們所有人保持沿着梯子向上攀爬?第三,我們應該發展什麼樣的社會政策,例如關於貧困的社會政策,跨越不同的文化和不同的政治體系。第四,我們自己制定標準,而不是強加給我們標準;我們自己發展機構,像金磚國家這樣的機構,還有剛才提出的新機構理念,新的資金池或許不能取代IMF,但至少可以成為IMF的替代品,或諸如此類的機制創新想法。
**李世默:**我們將來還有很多需要做的事情。我們在各自國家,應該思考並致力於做這些事。希望北京對話能成為一個平台,一個我們可以一次又一次討論這些問題的平台。當然,在這個過程中,也許我們還會發展出論壇、機構或其他形式的交流。非常感謝大家。
對話英文原文:
Eric: Welcome to the Beijing Club for International Dialogue. So today we have a special guest, my friend Izzah from Malaysia and my old friend Busani from South Africa. We live in a turbulent time. We had 30 years run of globalization, and in the last few years, maybe 5 years, everything is going up in smokes, both economically, politically and militarily: Military conflicts, economic wars, supply chain problems. It seems to me that the whole model of globalization that began at the end of the cold war is in trouble. It has run aground. At the same time we see another trend, which is this rapid rise of the Global South, has become an enormous player on the world stage collectively. I think for the first time, recently, the trade between us, Global South countries, has exceeded the trade volume between us and the Global North. so we’re doing more with ourselves, amongst the Global South countries, than we are doing with Global North. And we’re about 60%~65% of the global growth, all the Global South countries together. And Global South countries are very diverse. We got the poorest country in Africa. We got wealthiest countries in middle east, powerful military country; ASEAN, of course, is a big player in the Global South. Then we have new institutions being set up and being enlarged like BRICS; and South Africa of course is the founding country of BRICS. It’s now just enlarge to include Saudi Arabia and Iran and UAE etc. How do you see the role of the Global South in general and also in particular in Malaysia? Malaysia is one of the most influential countries in ASEAN, a leader in ASEAN, along with Indonesia. How do you see your role, Malaysia role and ASEAN role in this global transition?
Izzah: Thank you, Eric, and Busani. It’s a real pleasure to be here, not just being hosted by the Beijing Dialogue, but I think more importantly the topic at hand. I believe in everything that we try to achieve, it must somehow be able to manage future challenges. And we’re just here, Malaysia is not excluded from the 3 year pandemic that has really thrown everyone off balance, and rightfully so, because when else would we realize the systemic inequalities, perhaps the rather prejudicial or biases of the Global North to make us wake up.
It reminds me of the first time we met; so many might not don’t know this, when we met at the side of the Khazanah Malaysia sovereign wealth fund mega-trends forum, Eric li was invited as a keynote speaker. The first thing he said was of this book called the Asian renaissance written 27 years ago by my party president and father, Anwar Ibrahim, but I think as a person who was just 17, then in my 40s now, that for me is that kind of vision. We talk about a resurgence in Asia that can stand up at par with countries of the Global North.
But now, through BRICS, through collaboration, the founding, the decisions made by South Africa, by Brazil, China, you see the concrete realization, and this is what we need to do. It’s great and it’s important to have a philosophical underpining, but Malaysia has indicated our readiness as well to engage and plan ahead. You can’t plan ahead for the next even 5 year cycle. I would argue when you talk about BRICS and the potential for growth and the clear cut hypocrisy that the US and a lot of western nations have exposed themselves to, is to plan ahead for the next decade and more. How do we include ourselves in the supply chain interlinkages and also able to affect lives for the better.
Eric: I think you touched on two important aspects of this. So I was one of the earliest readers of your dad’s book. We were college students, we just had graduated from college. At that time in the 90s end of history, we’re all becoming Louisiana or hoping to become. Then we’re all kind of at a loss; on one hand, we’re trying hard to develop and make money. On the other hand, we’re asking, who are we why are we doing this? And then my classmates said, hey, there’s a Malaysian guy who wrote this book, Asian renaissance. So it’s way ahead of his time actually in a way, but you said something very interesting, philosophical underpinning. What is the philosophical narrative, the philosophical framework that a diverse set of countries like the Global South can think about and have and build something that’s in common that can unify us.
So we’re very diverse. Is there a philosophical narrative that could unite us one. That’s on the philosophical level. Two, on the practical level, we’re trading more amongst us now than with the Global North, but we’re still using the US dollars, the currency, and we’re still depending on the Global North on so many things like semiconductors, technology and financial system. I remember President Lula, when he was in Shanghai last year, I was in the audience, the biggest statement he made was, every night he goes to sleep, he asked himself, why do we have to use the US dollar?
It was incredible. He was in the New Development Bank. So what are the practical things that we could do to break out of this and control our own destiny?
Busani: So I’ve learned two new concepts colleagues in the past few weeks whilst I’ve been here. One of them is a concept called all weather relationships. I saw it when President Xi was in Europe last week, in the last the country he visited, the partnerships that were sealed. They were called all weather strategic partnerships. I think it matters that in managing the affairs of the Global South, we need those type of all weather relationships amongst ourselves as countries of the Global South because the all weather relationship will allow us first to manage contradictions amongst ourselves, because we do have contradictions, that is understandable.
But secondly, they would allow us to prioritize that which matters the most for us, the Global South to focus on. That means that we can have pledged solidarity on matters that matter, such as the palestinian question, we can have solidarity on that. That means there could be solidarity on issues of trade, there could be solidarity on how we reverse the trend of attacking multilateral institutions like the WTO through the use of hard power to undermine these institutions that were established as globalization was being promoted through the institutions like the WTO for example.
The second concept that I have learned recently is this concept of there being Global North, the Global South and the Global East and that China is actually part of what is called the Global East. Part of what we need to do in the most practical way as part of building solidarity, as part of building these all weather, mission driven relationships as the Global South is to deal with these attempts of isolating any member of the Global South or dividing ourselves as the Global South. And that is what we see. Hence this idea of the Global East.
But most fundamentally South Africa is 30 years old now as a democracy since 1994. In everything that South Africa has done over the past three decades, there’s a lot of lessons from Malaysia. We implemented equity and many other measures. There’s a lot of things we’ve done by learning from what has happened here in China, because we had some advantage in that we became free in 1994, when the experiment of reforms had already taken place in the people’s republic of China, in Malaysia as well as in other countries. So a lot of the things that we have tried to do to build a post apartheid society is based on those. So by that I mean, the biggest task ahead of countries like Malaysia, China and others in the Global South is to practically support other countries in the Global South to build their own dynamic capabilities so that they can be able to manage such issues as it was trade, rebuilding their economies and build institutions, because that’s part of the challenge that is facing many countries in the Global South.
Eric: So on the situation in Gaza, that’s probably a good prism. We can look through the philosophical, moral underpining you talk about. We find fairly almost unprecedented, unified position among Global South countries, in South Africa.
Izzah: You guys are really the standard bearer.
Eric: And your prime minister has been one of the most vocal. This is unimaginable 20 years ago, your prime minister what he’s been saying around the globe. Everywhere everytime he gets a chance, he’s right up on front unapologetically, making moral statements. This is kind of new for the Global South, really new. The Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping talks about building a new just world, it’s about justice in the world. So it’s very interesting, very refreshing. Are we getting anywhere with this, is this a sign of a new kind of Global South?
Izzah: I wanted to say that even being here with Busani, from the early days of Malaysia supporting the Madiba, to today seeing that we can take previous trauma, suffering and turn it into something good and you shouldn’t end up being the monster you fought against. I think when you say and you see South Africa taking up the case at the international court of justice and this list, even Colombia, even Brazil, I think it really showcases the ability. We have to fight bullies for one thing, but we also have to speak the truth. And sometimes I think in the world where the moral compass has somehow been thrown by the powers that be, I think, more the reason why we have to craft this clear cut set of parameters.
So one is to speak truth to abuse, especially when genocidal attacks take place because Busani mentioned about multilateral institutions, not only is the veto power strangling the ability to preserve and work towards peace. But you have this complete ignoring outright, every single kind of action put against a rogue state, because that’s how rules should be applied to equally. Regardless of the might and the size of the nation.
Eric: Who is the real rogue state?
Izzah: Exactly! And that’s very saddening, because it ends up making the world far less safer, far more dangerous. And who do you blame? So for me going back to how can the Global South harness this moment, I would say is not just necessary to say that because it’s right. It’s also to make sure we preserve a world order. We preserve a clear cut rule of law and unabashedly standing up.
Number two, going back to the issue of practicality, because at the end of the day, we also want to make sure that trading links, supply chain, the lessons from China’s success in establishing a vertical and horizontal supply chain network, parts of it can be learned and acquired from countries which are still developing.
I quote Keun Lee here, along the same grouping as Ha-Joon Chang, because in terms of an economic catch up, we also can’t have a step by step approach following the same western model because usually that model will impose a very stringent IPI regime that makes it even more harder for countries like the Global South who are struggling. Even the vaccines, right? So I don’t have to go to detail, but the point is, the spiritual, the rule of law, the philosophical underpinnings and the practicality. These things can be better packaged so that it can be something that we can deepen and emulate.
Eric: Again, we trace the two levels of our narratives. One is maybe we are experiencing a collective moral awakening of the Global South. Can we take that? Can we take it somewhere? We should all think about this. You go back to Malaysia, you go back to South Africa. We need to develop ideas and propagate them and organize people. Can we weave this together and make it into a collective moral awakening, that we’re together. And then at a practical level, like you said, one of the books that influenced me a lot was written fifteen twenty years ago by a Cambridge economist called Kicking Away the Ladder.
Izzah: Ha-Joon chang。
Eric: They got there this way and now we’re trying to kick the ladder. So the Chinese were very lucky, both through hard work and some luck that kept our grip on the ladder and we kind of got up there. I think it’s too late for them to kick away the ladder. They’re throwing the kitchen sink at us.
Izzah: Section 201.
Eric: But we’re on the castle. But being there alone is not good enough. We gotta bring the rest of the Global South there, only that could we make it sustainable for us, because we have a different philosophy, we have a different moral code, we have different political creed. We had globalization for several decades, now we’re going through a de-globalizing era, driven by the Global North, by the way, because they want to kick away the ladder. Now they feel globalization is hurting their interests, so they don’t want it anymore, because before they were making money so they want, but I think it’s a little too late. So what we want to do is go through this de-globalization phase and try to re-globalize. The re-globalized world is gonna be a different kind of globalized world. It’s gonna be more inclusive, globalized world. So we’ve been talking about how can China work with the rest of the Global South, with ASEAN, with BRICS countries, maybe the Belt and Road thing, the infrastructure building and also manufacturing.
So the Chinese path towards technology is totally different from the West, the West build technologies and they collect rents, they use technologies to exploit the rest of the world. And even in the last short period of 10, 20 years with the advancement of Chinese technologies, we see a totally different thing.When Chinese invent technologies, we beat up each other and get the price down to nothing. It’s maddening to an investor like me sometimes but that’s just the nature of the beast. The Chinese have a different way of approaching this. Every time the Chinese invent something, very quickly it become lower costing for the rest of the world. EV, for instance. if the Americans are at the same position, EVs will be selling more expensive than the Mercedes, I’m telling you because that’s how they do it. Aspirin, they could keep selling aspirin at 90% gross margin for 50 years. If the Chinese invent a new drug, it’ll be down to nothing like 5 years ago.
Izzah: I like how you say things that people think about but not necessarily mouth.
Eric: So now we are potentially going to different type of globalization; if we could keep it going like this, like I said, we climb up the ladder, we have Chinese technologies, and then we bring world production and global market. How do we work together on the supply chain all of these things?
Busani: Let me give it a practical example; in the article I’m writing for Guancha, which is coming out tomorrow I think, I make a proposal that’s what the Global South must agree on is what I call the Kimberley Process 2.0. Those of you who watched the movie, blood diamonds, will remember how the diamond trade created havoc in many countries, especially in Africa, that were producing diamonds.
There was a process called the Kimberley process named after the place where diamonds were discovered in South Africa. It became a dialogue process where eventually there are set of rules that are used globally, it must be applied by everybody who is in the trade or the sale of diamond; by introducing that Kimberley Process, we saw conflicts in countries like Liberia and so on reversing, because every diamond that is selling globally has to be accounted for.
Right now, the big conflict that is going to happen in many countries in Africa, I suppose could be in Asia as well as in Latin America, is around the critical minerals. These are critical minerals required for the green revolution, which includes the manufacturer of EVs. I am proposing that we need a Kimberley Process 2, specifically designed for critical minerals. Because by doing that, what the EU is doing, for example, in Congo, what the US and them are doing in many countries in Africa that are producing critical minerals, because they want to compete with China, and is brewing conflicts in those countries, that can be reversed.
And secondly, it means that through this global value chains that you are talking about, countries that have got critical minerals can then industrialize using those, which means even if the ladder is kicked, they can make some leaps. They don’t have to wait and go through each and every step of catching up. Because those countries like in central Africa and so on can mine these critical minerals, do some kind of processing, before they end up here in China where they are making EVs and all sorts of others. That’s where it will be the biggest contribution, for example, of China in the industrialization of the Global South, if there was a mechanism that says we would be buying these critical minerals, you do the following beneficiation of those minerals before they get here, and all of them are accounted for. So they are done peacefully, and secondly, there is a form of industrialization that took place there; that will shake the empire to its core, because it has never been tried before.
Eric: I actually think we are at a critical juncture. We have amazing opportunities because somehow if we can marry China’s enormous industrial capacity with the resources and the market of the Global South, we put them together, we form a new globalized world outside of what I call a small garden. We’re the world and they’re the small garden. I think it was Fareed Zakaria who talked about the west and the rest, the rise of the rest, I want to turn around and just say the world and the west; we’re the world and they are the west. So there’s so much to do. Can ASEAN be a more active player?
Izzah: I think we have to also be aware that there are social developmental differences between the different nations of ASEAN and different levels of economic development for one thing, but that can be harnessed in terms of making sure what kind of model can apply best to which nation.
I like when Busani mentioned this Kimberley Process, Malaysia, we set up our downstream development of oil and gas, our own national petroleum company back in 1974. It was important because if we didn’t, it would have been difficult. So imagine now rare earth, critical minerals, how did you develop the ability? It’s not just selling the raw materials, but it is making sure that you are able to harness downstream. You have a talent pool and it takes time, it takes a lot of political will, it takes patience and it takes a mindset that doesn’t want just to profit here tomorrow. This is where I think, the more we talk about it, then you can understand as you link, your role is also to figure out your respective nations, how will I get better in the next ten years.
Couple that with other mechanisms, one is the issuance and the usage of compulsory or voluntary licensing which Malaysia had introduced. When it comes to vaccines or treatment, that’s extremely expensive; you know how these big pharmas come and then they impose ridiculous pricing and you see people die because the governments can’t afford to treat people.
So we did it successfully with the cooperation of drugs for neglected diseases, DNDI, with our Ministry of Health, and voila, you have affordable Hepatitis C medication that saved more than tens of thousands of lives.
So again, making sure each of us know, whether it’s this rare minerals, critical minerals, or whether it’s simple things as much needed medication, it can be done and it should be done and everyone should embrace this. Because what are they gonna do? When they can’t sell to the Malaysian market, they knock on Vietnam’s door; but we’ve got to stand together. We have to really convince everybody in ASEAN.
Eric: Collective bargaining of the Global South. On so many fronts that we can do this, if we have political will. So Busani, what about South Africa? You guys are the leader.
Busani: It’s important that in these conversations, we think of contradictions, each country has got its own contradictions of national development, contradictions in the regime and contradictions globally.
Recently, there’s been a number of South Africans who have been saying, you should be dealing with poverty here and not going to the international courts of justice and worrying about what’s happening in another country and so on.
And government is clear that national development and its pursuits must not negate other responsibilities such as pursuing the agenda of peace and justice as we have been doing as South Africa. And we’re happy that many other countries have actually joined forces with South Africa. Because it’s very important what Madiba Mandela said, that we need to give a human face, a new face, a human face into the global order. Hence South Africa is pursuing that.
And we truly appreciate that with all the challenges we have experienced, including the lessons learned from state building over the past 30 years, built on the experiences, for example, we have a National Planning Commission. The National Planning Commission is built on the Planning Council here as well as the Commission on Malaysia. I’m doing work with the Ha-Joon chang he’s coming into the new cabinet in July, he will be part of the people who will be in that conversation.
We truly understand that one, we must deal with the national priorities of reversing poverty and inequality and going through structural reforms, we must sustain our obligation of pursuing justice and development as a collective in the Global South. And that is our attitude in how we relate with China, with Malaysia and many other countries.
And by the way, it’s difficult many of you have seen on television that almost every second week in the US congress, there is someone writing a letter, proposing a bill or debating something that South Africa must be isolated. That is the type of stuff that we are going through as South Africa because there is a lobby that says you must isolate South Africa because of what has been happening in the Middle East. But it’s important. It’s amongst ourselves as partners. And I think that every revolution needs people who endow at those revolution. In this instance, what the revolution requires in the Global South endowment required is intellectual capital, its supports amongst each other, but also support to build long lasting institutions, and those countries in Asia and elsewhere who have much more advanced in the dynamic state capabilities need to be able, as part of the agenda of export building people to people conduct, to support efforts by other countries, especially the small ones, to build their dynamic capability.
So that Eric, when they come and negotiate a BRI contract with China, which will be critiqued in western media, right? A smallest country must be able to sign a contract, understand the terms of condition of and sign it in full confidence that this contract is in the best interest of our country. In some instances, these examples that gets used is because the country would have been small, it should have been desperate to sign a deal because they want the bridge, they want the rail and the road and so on. And all the early generation contract they had some problems in there.
But if we support all countries in the Global South build dynamic capabilities, we will know that when BRI is expanded. That the criticism that the contracts are skewed in favor of China and so on can be managed. We will know actually because even when the infrastructure is built, you need to be maintained. You must know that when the big SOE of China has left, that asset is going to be maintained accordingly. So there has to be that those considerations of sustainability, hence this project of building dynamic state capabilities had to be part and parcel of the people to people conduct.
Izzah: I just want to add on that’s such an important factor because the first part is always the great announcement and similar to Hep C, but what’s the second episode, or the second season? How do you become sustainable? Right? Because you’re gonna be cornered in every market when you take this decision. So deepening of investments and that kind of subsequent support to make sure that it is sustainable, whether the country itself. And this is how it works, because its hand holding and it is challenging. But I think that’s the bit that goes back to this huge whole issue interlinkages. Right? I Malaysia is also not exempted from being threatened here and there.
So the point is they’re gonna start doing it, but how are we responding. Are we responding collectively?
Eric:So the point is they’re gonna start doing it, but how are we responding. Are we responding collectively?
So I think that’s a really important point. I think it’s a new thing. It’s a new phenomenon that China has now become a major economic player in so many countries. That’s a new phenomenon. Our lending, China’s lending to the Global South is bigger than WTO and all the western institutions and rich countries combined.
And it’s enormous and the company’s going there. So I think we actually should probably develop a economic code of conduct for economic activities between China and these countries. And it’s kind of a common understanding how we mutually benefit each other on a sustainable basis of it. It’s a new phenomenon. So we have a lot of problems 10, 15 years ago where the Chinese companies were going to Myanmar. It was a lot of problems, but then they fixed it. Now they’re in a much better shape. So we’re learning. I think it goes both ways, that’s another task that we should do. I think that China should sit down with Global South institutions, like BRICS, ASEAN, to figure out a framework to how Chinese economic activities should take place in these countries.
Izzah: And vice versa.
Eric: Right.
Busani: That’s correct. It’s important that we also are open about it. My own understanding of the evolution in the countries I have worked with in Africa is that the type of investment that we see from the Chinese companies in Africa, Now we are now interacting with first grade SOEs and first grade private companies. 15 years ago, we were interacting with 4th grade companies rural China and so on.
Eric: I call hit-and-run company.
Busani: Now the game has changed also because some of them, because we are now interacting with the first tier, They are under strict supervision from government here. So the amount of challenges that were there 15 years ago now are being mitigated by the fact that we are interacting with the biggest of SOEs, the biggest of private companies who are under tight supervision from government itself here. But I think we are opening a frontier for scholars of global relations, that maybe there should be an exploration of what we will call a code of conduct, that in itself will collapse some global some western capital actually.
Eric: And there is a moral aspect to it. If you look at what western economic activities, western companies have been doing in Africa, for instance, in the last 200 years, 300years, it’s almost criminal. You go to Ghana where I used to go, I like to go inside the school there. It has rich deposits of gold, and the local people got none of it. Zero. It’s all British companies’, Europe an companies’ gold. They sign away the stuff with the corrupt officials and then take the gold; they’ve been living there for thousand years, got zero. And China should not and will not repeat that. So we need to figure out code of conduct.
Izzah: It’s like the confessions of an economy hit man, that book I read.
Eric: We got a big to do list.
Izzah: We do. But at least we know what we need to do. That’s a good start.
Eric: The Global South countries need to get together and articulate a vision of the re-globalized world. What kind of world do we want? We talk about justice in the world, economic development, mutual development, bring prosperity to our peoples. So what are the rules of the road? All these things are waiting for us to address. So we need to articulate a vision. What kind of world do we want?
Izzah: This is also exciting, right? I mean in a sense that this moment has come and it’s us to kind of craft and draw out. Even the mere mention of a code of conduct, I think it gives a lot of hope, it should give a lot of hope to younger people, the next generation, that there is this move towards a more altruistic engagement within the Global South.
Eric: Exactly. Right. This is the kind of stuff your organization should be leading.
Li Yuefen:Yeah, but we have been doing it very actively already.
Izzah: They’re the ones who say I told you so.
Eric: Great. Good. So we’re out of time. Let me summarize 30 seconds. I summarize into 4 things that we discussed today. It’s amazing discussion. Okay. Number one, you raised it, philosophical underpinning. Can we develop a moral narrative, a common vision for the world we want, the Global South wants, a moral narrative, a justice in the world I heard, a just world order or something like that. So we need to think about that. Second, mutual economic development. How do we cultivate a new economic development architecture with all the changes, deglobalization, reglobalization, supply chain, China’s changing economic profile and the production going, so a new economics architecture that help us all develop, help us all keep the ladder and climb up together. Third, what kind of societal policies that we should develop, with regards to poverty, for instance, social policies across diverse cultures and diverse political systems. Fourth, our own standards that are not imposed on us, but we develop our own standards and our own institutions, institutions like BRICS, new institution, ideas that you just raised, the pool of capital that could at least not replace IMF but be an alternative IMF, these kind of new institutional ideas.
Eric: We have work cut out for us. We should go back to our respective countries and work on and think about and work on these things. We want, in the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, we want it to be a platform, a place for us to come back again and again to discuss these things and over time maybe we develop initiatives. Maybe we develop forums when we develop standards, maybe we develop whatever organizations. Thank you so much.