穆罕默德·薩奇布：“印度外交政策就像一個逃婚的新娘，我們也不清楚自己在做什麼”

穆罕默德·薩奇布在“金磚國家與多極世界2024對話會”上發言北京對話

穆罕默德·薩奇布：

目前的情況是，金磚國家確實在運作，但實際上並沒有取得太多成就，除了建立新開發銀行。金磚國家並沒有實現他們能力範圍內能做到的事情，所以，到目前為止，金磚國家的表現並不理想。我們都知道問題所在。

對於印度來説，問題和解決方案沒有契合，其中存在脱節。中國和印度是金磚國家中前兩大成員國，這也可能是金磚國家面臨的另一個最大問題。因為中國太大了，相比之下，印度只有中國的五分之一。印度有很大的野心，而中國則顯得過於謹慎。這些因素的結合導致我們沒有真正地解決問題。而在這一切背後缺乏的是政治意願。正如剛才討論的，金磚國家存在的意義是什麼？

我認為，問題並不在於我們五個國家走到一起創建某種經濟模式。我覺得，最初的設想是這五個來自不同大陸的大國能夠成為吸引其他發展中國家凝聚在一起的磁石。比如説，南非代表非洲，印度代表南亞，中國代表東亞，巴西代表中美洲。這五個大國應該成為吸引其他發展中國家的磁石。

最終，我們希望能夠形成一個全球南方的聯盟，但這一願景目前並未實現。其中最主要的原因是缺乏政治意願。以印度為例，人們將這個平台以及外交政策用作國內政治的工具，實際上沒有讓它發揮作用。

印度的外交政策就像一個逃婚的新娘，我們在跟一些國家“同牀共枕”，又跟另一些國家“約會”，同時又和其他國家“許下諾言”。我們自己也不清楚在做什麼。這就是問題所在，我們真的不知道自己在做什麼。我們想吸引其他發展中國家，特別是從全球南方吸引國家加入，但我們無從下手，所以，印度顯得很迷茫。

中國則有些過於謹慎。我在從事全球南方工作的過程中和許多發展中國家交流，我發現很多國家期望中國擔任領導角色，但中國不願意成為領導者。而印度則渴望成為領導者，但人們不願意讓印度領導。這就是問題的癥結之一。我們可能需要跨出金磚國家的框架。

第二個問題是缺乏明確的重點。每次金磚國家會議都會有一個既定議程，但新加入的國家會再添加兩項內容，接着另一個國家又會再添加兩項，結果就是我們有一長串要處理的事項，但最終什麼也沒有落實。我建議應該有一些明確的重點領域和對應的負責國家，例如教育和技能發展。印度有龐大且受過良好教育的人口，80%的人口會説英語，所以我們在這一領域具備優勢。

例如，如果金磚國家發起一個技能和教育倡議，印度可以在其中擔當領導者。因為技術培訓等方面的優勢，俄羅斯可以成為共同領導者。在每一個領域，我們可以指定一個領導國家和一個共同領導國家，然後在年底，他們需要展示他們的成果。比如，在金磚國家的教育和發展方面，印度和俄羅斯應該負責領導。

同樣地，巴西可以提出金磚國家的農業和食品安全倡議，而南非則可以因其環境保護專長也成為這一領域的（共同）領導者。再例如，俄羅斯可以在教育領域與印度共同領導，但在全球南方的能源安全方面，俄羅斯應該是領導者。

因此，類似地，對於五個金磚國家及“金磚+”的十一國，我們應該明確何種類型的合作伙伴組合，包括主要領導者、共同領導者，以及他們需要展示的某種形式的成果然而現實是金磚國家並沒有做到這一點，它沒有給大家展現出應有的成效。

此外，我們必須有一些解決機制。我們必須引入私人企業的參與。如果我們真的想在金磚國家取得成就，私營企業家將起到非常重要的作用。我所説的是來自金磚國家的私人企業家，我認為類似北京對話的平台，可以發揮至關重要的作用。比如説，你們可以從金磚國家中挑選十位頂級企業家，組成一個金磚國家精英俱樂部。俱樂部會有自己的議程，瞭解問題所在，可以向政府提供建議並採取行動。這會對解決問題有很大的幫助。我們必須設定一些可以實現的目標，並且要持續追蹤這些目標的進展，當然這可以不用是官方形式，而是非官方的。

我們需要更多的互動、合作與協作，但在金磚國家內部，我們其實已經具備了所有解決方案。今天早上，翟東昇老師提到了外匯支付的問題，而我現在談的是貿易問題。如果我們允許貨幣互換，那麼金磚國家之間86%的貿易逆差可以在全球南方內部解決。我們不必依賴 SWIFT 或其他系統。這就是現實。

我們正處在一個新的世界經濟秩序的邊緣。如今，金磚國家和其他發展中國家充滿了各種想法、創新能力和潛力。我們需要的是一個領頭羊，這可以是中國，但目前尚未實現。

比如説，由於人口老齡化，中國正在失去人口紅利，但印度卻是全球最年輕的國家，擁有大量受過教育的英語人才，擁有許多工程師和科學家。印度和中國可以形成非常好的互補關係。中國是全球的製造業中心，印度在服務業方面表現出色。如果可以，中國的硬件和印度的軟件相結合，不僅可以推動金磚國家的前進，還可以帶動整個全球南方的發展。

我理解各國領導層和體制不同，我可能並不完全瞭解中國的情況，但我感覺中國似乎過於謹慎。它似乎對未知感到恐懼。它的對手就近在咫尺，正在影響其他國家，因此吸引更多國家加入對中國來説百利而無一害。美國在南海的頻繁行動隨時可能帶來衝突。中國需要更多的盟友和朋友。中國有能力、資源和善意來做到這一點，但它似乎仍在非常緩慢且謹慎地行動。

如果中美之間發生衝突，受害的不僅僅是中國，而是整個全球南方，特別是“一帶一路”倡議中的國家。我認為人們還沒有充分意識到“一帶一路”對其他發展中國家的投資貢獻，以及與中國結盟帶來的信心。

人們現在看到了西方體系的替代方案。我認為中國做的事情已經比佈雷頓森林體系更多，規模也更大。所以，為什麼我們還需要世界銀行和IMF的批准？我認為中國應該再往前邁出一步，這是目前的唯一解決方案。這不僅是為了中國，也是為了所有發展中國家。

穆罕默德·薩奇布在“金磚國家與多極世界2024對話會”上發言北京對話

以下為英文原文：

It has been the case that BRICS is working, but it has not really achieved much beyond establishing the New Development Bank. It’s an achievement, but they are not really fulfilling the kind of things they can do. So probably BRICS is underperforming so far. We all know the problems and since morning, I have heard that we all have the solutions. But somehow in India’s case, problems and solutions are not getting together. There is a miss.  India and China are the largest members of BRICS, this is probably the other biggest problem for the BRICS. Because China is too big. India, by comparison, is only one-fifth of China. India has big ambitions. China is a bit too cautious. So all these things coming together is not really solving the problem. Behind all this is political will. The political will is not happening. Like he mentioned, what is the purpose of BRICS?

I think Mr. Mi that it is not about that we five countries come together and generate a kind of economic model.Rather, I believe the idea was that these five large countries from different continents would serve as a magnet for developing countries to collaborate and work together. For example, South Africa for Africa, India for South Asia, China for Southeast Asia, and Brazil for Central America. That will make these five big countries to create sort of a magnet for other developing countries.

At the end of the day, we will have a conglomerate ofGlobal South or combination of Global South, but this did not happen. It’s because there was no political will. People are using this as bridge, I can say from India that people are using these kind of groupings for the domestic political use, which is not really letting it go. For example, our Indian foreign policy has been used for the domestic political use.

As of today, India’s foreign policy is like a runaway bride. We are sleeping with somebody, dating with somebody, committing with somebody. We don’t know what we are doing. So this is a problem that we do not really know. If we want to attract other developing countries which we want to bring in from the Global South, we just cannot do it. India is confused. China is a bit too cautious. A lot of developing countries, when I go and talk to them during my Global South work, people are looking up to China for the leadership, but China is not willing to be (a) leader. India is looking for the leadership, but people are not willing to make India leader. So this is the reason. Probably we will have to go beyond BRICS.

Number two, there is no focus. Every BRICS meeting in a country, you already have an agenda, then new country will add two more items in the agenda. The third country will add two more. So we have a huge list of items to be dealt in BRICS and we end up doing nothing. What I will rather suggestedis that there has to be some focused areas and some focused countries, for example, education and skill development. India has a huge population, the educated population, the 80% speaks English, so they are pretty much doing it.

For example, if BRICS have a skill and education initiative, India can be the leader in it. And because of the technical training and all the things, Russia can be co-leader in it. In every sphere of this thing, we have one leader from these countries, and we have a co-leader.There is a combination at the end of the year when they have to show something, show what they have achieved. For example, for BRICS education and development, it has to be India and Russia. Similarly for Brazil, it should be BRICS agriculture and food security initiative with Brazil and it should be led by South Africa because South Africa has the environmental protection, and then there’s a leader in the Global South. For example, for Russia, Russia will be a kind of a co-host or co-leader in education with India, but it will be leader in energy security for the Global South.

So similarly, for all the five countries and plus eleven countries, we have worked out a table of what kind we should be the combination of the partners, a main leader, a co-leader, and some kind of performance they will have to show. That is not happening, and BRICS is not performing.

Another thing is that there has to be some kind of settlement. And you have to have private people. They are going to play a very important role if we really want to achieve something in BRICS. What I’m saying is private entrepreneurs fromGlobal South and I think this Beijing forum can play a very, very important role. You pick ten top businessmen from all the BRICS countries and have an elite club, like Beijing club now, an elite BRICS club. They have their own agenda, they know the issues, they can advise government and they can act on it. This will solve the problem. So there has to be some kind of targets. There has to be achievable targets and then some accountability at the end of the day, not officially, but unofficially.

And there needs to be more interaction, cooperation, and collaboration, but within BRICS, we have all the solutions. So in the morning, Mr. Di told us about the foreign payment issues. I’m talking about the trade issues. If we allow swapping of currency, then 86 % of the trade deficit among each other can be sorted out within Global South. We don’t need to go to any either SWIFT or any other system. This is what it is.

I just want to reiterate the point which MadamLi Ming made. We are on the verge of a new world economic order. And most of the countries now in BRICS and other developing countries are brimming with lot of ideas, lot of innovation, capabilities and capacities and lots. What they need is a trigger and the trigger can be given by China, which is not happening.

For example, China is losing the demographic dividends because of their age of population, but India which is the youngest country in the world is there, with huge educated, English-speaking population, with a lot of engineers and scientists, whatever their work is. There can be a very good combination for India and China. You are a manufacturing hub of the world. India is pretty good in services. Probably the combination of hardware and software between India and China. We can not only carry the BRICS forward, but we can carry the whole Global South forward if you want to.

The thing is that I know our leadership and working system, but I do not know aboutChina, but somehow we get this feeling that China is being, I don’t know the reasons, over cautious. It’s still going to the fear of unknown. While you are seeing that your enemy is right next door, getting other countries is in your interest. America is doing the South China Sea. They are just hanging around you. And they can strike any time. You have to have more people, more friends with you. You have capability and capacity and goodwill to do it. But still we feel that China is moving very slow and it is very cautious.

And if something happens between China and U.S., I think it will not be China which is suffering, but the wholeGlobal South, the whole BRI. You probably do not realize how much contribution BRI has to other developing countries for the investment, how much psychological confidence you get from other developing countries when you are with China.

So people see that now we have an alternative to the Western system. I think China has done much more than the Bretton institutes will do, much more and bigger than that. So why do we need a World Bank, IMF approvals and all those things? I think China should take a step forward. And that is the only solution right now. This will not be for China, but this will be for the other developing countries.